Methods and applications for improving parameter prediction models for stand structures in Finland

This thesis report attempts to improve the models for predicting forest stand structure for practical use, e.g. forest management planning (FMP) purposes in Finland. Comparisons were made between Weibull and Johnson s SB distribution and alternative regression estimation methods. Data used for preliminary studies was local but the final models were based on representative data. Models were validated mainly in terms of bias and RMSE in the main stand characteristics (e.g. volume) using independent data. The bivariate SBB distribution model was used to mimic realistic variations in tree dimensions by including within-diameter-class height variation. Using the traditional method, diameter distribution with the expected height resulted in reduced height variation, whereas the alternative bivariate method utilized the error-term of the height model. The lack of models for FMP was covered to some extent by the models for peatland and juvenile stands. The validation of these models showed that the more sophisticated regression estimation methods provided slightly improved accuracy. A flexible prediction and application for stand structure consisted of seemingly unrelated regression models for eight stand characteristics, the parameters of three optional distributions and Näslund s height curve. The cross-model covariance structure was used for linear prediction application, in which the expected values of the models were calibrated with the known stand characteristics. This provided a framework to validate the optional distributions and the optional set of stand characteristics. Height distribution is recommended for the earliest state of stands because of its continuous feature. From the mean height of about 4 m, Weibull dbh-frequency distribution is recommended in young stands if the input variables consist of arithmetic stand characteristics. In advanced stands, basal area-dbh distribution models are recommended. Näslund s height curve proved useful. Some efficient transformations of stand characteristics are introduced, e.g. the shape index, which combined the basal area, the stem number and the median diameter. Shape index enabled SB model for peatland stands to detect large variation in stand densities. This model also demonstrated reasonable behaviour for stands in mineral soils.

Optimal management of beaver population using a reduced-order distributed parameter model and single network adaptive critics

Beavers are often found to be in conflict with human interests by creating nuisances like building dams on flowing water (leading to flooding), blocking irrigation canals, cutting down timbers, etc. At the same time they contribute to raising water tables, increased vegetation, etc. Consequently, maintaining an optimal beaver population is beneficial. Because of their diffusion externality (due to migratory nature), strategies based on lumped parameter models are often ineffective. Using a distributed parameter model for beaver population that accounts for their spatial and temporal behavior, an optimal control (trapping) strategy is presented in this paper that leads to a desired distribution of the animal density in a region in the long run. The optimal control solution presented, imbeds the solution for a large number of initial conditions (i.e., it has a feedback form), which is otherwise nontrivial to obtain. The solution obtained can be used in real-time by a nonexpert in control theory since it involves only using the neural networks trained offline. Proper orthogonal decomposition-based basis function design followed by their use in a Galerkin projection has been incorporated in the solution process as a model reduction technique. Optimal solutions are obtained through a "single network adaptive critic" (SNAC) neural-network architecture.

Assessment of conditional moment closure models of turbulent autoignition using DNS data

A systematic assessment of the submodels of conditional moment closure (CMC) formalism for the autoignition problem is carried out using direct numerical simulation (DNS) data. An initially non-premixed, n-heptane/air system, subjected to a three-dimensional, homogeneous, isotropic, and decaying turbulence, is considered. Two kinetic schemes, (1) a one-step and (2) a reduced four-step reaction mechanism, are considered for chemistry An alternative formulation is developed for closure of the mean chemical source term , based on the condition that the instantaneous fluctuation of excess temperature is small. With this model, it is shown that the CMC equations describe the autoignition process all the way up to near the equilibrium limit. The effect of second-order terms (namely, conditional variance of temperature excess sigma(2) and conditional correlations of species q(ij)) in modeling is examined. Comparison with DNS data shows that sigma(2) has little effect on the predicted conditional mean temperature evolution, if the average conditional scalar dissipation rate is properly modeled. Using DNS data, a correction factor is introduced in the modeling of nonlinear terms to include the effect of species fluctuations. Computations including such a correction factor show that the species conditional correlations q(ij) have little effect on model predictions with a one-step reaction, but those q(ij) involving intermediate species are found to be crucial when four-step reduced kinetics is considered. The "most reactive mixture fraction" is found to vary with time when a four-step kinetics is considered. First-order CMC results are found to be qualitatively wrong if the conditional mean scalar dissipation rate is not modeled properly. The autoignition delay time predicted by the CMC model compares excellently with DNS results and shows a trend similar to experimental data over a range of initial temperatures.

A comparative study of ordinary kriging and support vector machine models for the spatial variability of rock depth in Bangalore

In this paper, reduced level of rock at Bangalore, India is arrived from the 652 boreholes data in the area covering 220 sq.km. In the context of prediction of reduced level of rock in the subsurface of Bangalore and to study the spatial variability of the rock depth, ordinary kriging and Support Vector Machine (SVM) models have been developed. In ordinary kriging, the knowledge of the semivariogram of the reduced level of rock from 652 points in Bangalore is used to predict the reduced level of rock at any point in the subsurface of Bangalore, where field measurements are not available. A cross validation (Q1 and Q2) analysis is also done for the developed ordinary kriging model. The SVM is a novel type of learning machine based on statistical learning theory, uses regression technique by introducing e-insensitive loss function has been used to predict the reduced level of rock from a large set of data. A comparison between ordinary kriging and SVM model demonstrates that the SVM is superior to ordinary kriging in predicting rock depth.

Ranking of global climate models for India using multicriterion analysis

Eleven GCMs (BCCR-BCCM2.0, INGV-ECHAM4, GFDL2.0, GFDL2.1, GISS, IPSL-CM4, MIROC3, MRI-CGCM2, NCAR-PCMI, UKMO-HADCM3 and UKMO-HADGEM1) were evaluated for India (covering 73 grid points of 2.5 degrees x 2.5 degrees) for the climate variable `precipitation rate' using 5 performance indicators. Performance indicators used were the correlation coefficient, normalised root mean square error, absolute normalised mean bias error, average absolute relative error and skill score. We used a nested bias correction methodology to remove the systematic biases in GCM simulations. The Entropy method was employed to obtain weights of these 5 indicators. Ranks of the 11 GCMs were obtained through a multicriterion decision-making outranking method, PROMETHEE-2 (Preference Ranking Organisation Method of Enrichment Evaluation). An equal weight scenario (assigning 0.2 weight for each indicator) was also used to rank the GCMs. An effort was also made to rank GCMs for 4 river basins (Godavari, Krishna, Mahanadi and Cauvery) in peninsular India. The upper Malaprabha catchment in Karnataka, India, was chosen to demonstrate the Entropy and PROMETHEE-2 methods. The Spearman rank correlation coefficient was employed to assess the association between the ranking patterns. Our results suggest that the ensemble of GFDL2.0, MIROC3, BCCR-BCCM2.0, UKMO-HADCM3, MPIECHAM4 and UKMO-HADGEM1 is suitable for India. The methodology proposed can be extended to rank GCMs for any selected region.

Ranking general circulation models for India using TOPSIS

Eleven general circulation models/global climate models (GCMs) - BCCR-BCCM2.0, INGV-ECHAM4, GFDL2.0, GFDL2.1, GISS, IPSL-CM4, MIROC3, MRI-CGCM2, NCAR-PCMI, UKMO-HADCM3 and UKMO-HADGEM1 - are evaluated for Indian climate conditions using the performance indicator, skill score (SS). Two climate variables, temperature T (at three levels, i.e. 500, 700, 850 mb) and precipitation rate (Pr) are considered resulting in four SS-based evaluation criteria (T500, T700, T850, Pr). The multicriterion decision-making method, technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution, is applied to rank 11 GCMs. Efforts are made to rank GCMs for the Upper Malaprabha catchment and two river basins, namely, Krishna and Mahanadi (covered by 17 and 15 grids of size 2.5 degrees x 2.5 degrees, respectively). Similar efforts are also made for India (covered by 73 grid points of size 2.5 degrees x 2.5 degrees) for which an ensemble of GFDL2.0, INGV-ECHAM4, UKMO-HADCM3, MIROC3, BCCR-BCCM2.0 and GFDL2.1 is found to be suitable. It is concluded that the proposed methodology can be applied to similar situations with ease.

The influence of reduced oxygen availability on gene expression in laboratory (H37Rv) and clinical strains (S7 and S10) of Mycobacterium tuberculosis

Mycobacterium tuberculosis has the ability to persist within the host in a dormant stage. One important condition believed to contribute to dormancy is reduced access to oxygen known as hypoxia. However, the response of M. tuberculosis to such hypoxia condition is not fully characterized. Virtually all dormant models against tuberculosis tested in animals used laboratory strain H37Rv or Erdman strain. But major outbreaks of tuberculosis (TB) occur with the strains that have widely different genotypes and phenotypes compared to H37Rv. In this study, we used a custom oligonucleotide microarray to determine the overall transcriptional response of laboratory strain (H37Rv) and most prevalent clinical strains (S7 and S10) of M. tuberculosis from South India to hypoxia. Analysis of microarray results revealed that a total of 1161 genes were differentially regulated (>= 1.5 fold change) in H37Rv, among them 659 genes upregulated and 502 genes down regulated. Microarray data of clinical isolates showed that a total of 790 genes were differentially regulated in S7 among which 453 genes were upregulated and 337 down regulated. Interestingly, numerous genes were also differentially regulated in S10 (total 2805 genes) of which 1463 genes upregulated and 1342 genes down regulated during reduced oxygen condition (Wayne's model). One hundred and thirty-four genes were found common and upregulated among all three strains (H37Rv, S7, and S10) and can be targeted for drug/vaccine development against TB. (C) 2015 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Generalized Partial Response Equalization and Data-Dependent Noise Predictive Signal Detection Over Media Models for TDMR

Two-dimensional magnetic recording (2-D TDMR) is an emerging technology that aims to achieve areal densities as high as 10 Tb/in(2) using sophisticated 2-D signal-processing algorithms. High areal densities are achieved by reducing the size of a bit to the order of the size of magnetic grains, resulting in severe 2-D intersymbol interference (ISI). Jitter noise due to irregular grain positions on the magnetic medium is more pronounced at these areal densities. Therefore, a viable read-channel architecture for TDMR requires 2-D signal-detection algorithms that can mitigate 2-D ISI and combat noise comprising jitter and electronic components. Partial response maximum likelihood (PRML) detection scheme allows controlled ISI as seen by the detector. With the controlled and reduced span of 2-D ISI, the PRML scheme overcomes practical difficulties such as Nyquist rate signaling required for full response 2-D equalization. As in the case of 1-D magnetic recording, jitter noise can be handled using a data-dependent noise-prediction (DDNP) filter bank within a 2-D signal-detection engine. The contributions of this paper are threefold: 1) we empirically study the jitter noise characteristics in TDMR as a function of grain density using a Voronoi-based granular media model; 2) we develop a 2-D DDNP algorithm to handle the media noise seen in TDMR; and 3) we also develop techniques to design 2-D separable and nonseparable targets for generalized partial response equalization for TDMR. This can be used along with a 2-D signal-detection algorithm. The DDNP algorithm is observed to give a 2.5 dB gain in SNR over uncoded data compared with the noise predictive maximum likelihood detection for the same choice of channel model parameters to achieve a channel bit density of 1.3 Tb/in(2) with media grain center-to-center distance of 10 nm. The DDNP algorithm is observed to give similar to 10% gain in areal density near 5 grains/bit. The proposed signal-processing framework can broadly scale to various TDMR realizations and areal density points.

Constraints based analysis of extended cybernetic models

The cybernetic modeling framework provides an interesting approach to model the regulatory phenomena occurring in microorganisms. In the present work, we adopt a constraints based approach to analyze the nonlinear behavior of the extended equations of the cybernetic model. We first show that the cybernetic model exhibits linear growth behavior under the constraint of no resource allocation for the induction of the key enzyme. We then quantify the maximum achievable specific growth rate of microorganisms on mixtures of substitutable substrates under various kinds of regulation and show its use in gaining an understanding of the regulatory strategies of microorganisms. Finally, we show that Saccharomyces cerevisiae exhibits suboptimal dynamic growth with a long diauxic lag phase when growing on a mixture of glucose and galactose and discuss on its potential to achieve optimal growth with a significantly reduced diauxic lag period. The analysis carried out in the present study illustrates the utility of adopting a constraints based approach to understand the dynamic growth strategies of microorganisms. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pressure Drop of Bubbly Two-Phase Flow in a Square Channel at Reduced Gravity

A new set of experimental pressure drop data, collected aboard the Russian IL-76MDK, is reported for bubbly airwater two-phase flow in a square channel with a cross-sectional area of 12x 12mm(2). The present data are compared to several frequently used empirical models, e.g. homogeneous model, Lockhart-Martinelli-Chisholm correlation and Friedel's model. It is shown that the predictions of the models mentioned above are generally not satisfied. A new homogeneous model is developed based on the analysis of the characteristics of bubbly two-phase flow at reduced gravity. It is tested with the present data and other data collected by other researchers in circular pipes. Some questions related to the present model are also discussed. (C) 2002 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparison of existing poroelastic models for wave damping in a porous seabed

Mechanism of wave-seabed interaction has been extensively studied by coastal geotechnical engineers in recent years. Numerous poro-elastic models have been proposed to investigate the mechanism of wave propagation on a seabed in the past. The existing poro-elastic models include drained model, consolidation model, Coulomb-damping model, and full dynamic model. However, to date, the difference between the existing models is unclear. In this paper, the fully dynamic poro-elastic model for the wave-seabed interaction will be derived first. Then, the existing models will be reduced from the proposed fully dynamic model. Based on the numerical comparisons, the applicable range of each model is also clarified for the engineering practice.

Statistical analysis of synthetic earthquake catalogs generated by models with various levels of fault zone disorder

The stress release model, a stochastic version of the elastic rebound theory, is applied to the large events from four synthetic earthquake catalogs generated by models with various levels of disorder in distribution of fault zone strength (Ben-Zion, 1996) They include models with uniform properties (U), a Parkfield-type asperity (A), fractal brittle properties (F), and multi-size-scale heterogeneities (M). The results show that the degree of regularity or predictability in the assumed fault properties, based on both the Akaike information criterion and simulations, follows the order U, F, A, and M, which is in good agreement with that obtained by pattern recognition techniques applied to the full set of synthetic data. Data simulated from the best fitting stress release models reproduce, both visually and in distributional terms, the main features of the original catalogs. The differences in character and the quality of prediction between the four cases are shown to be dependent on two main aspects: the parameter controlling the sensitivity to departures from the mean stress level and the frequency-magnitude distribution, which differs substantially between the four cases. In particular, it is shown that the predictability of the data is strongly affected by the form of frequency-magnitude distribution, being greatly reduced if a pure Gutenburg-Richter form is assumed to hold out to high magnitudes.

Transition metal clusters supported by multinucleating ligand frameworks as models of biological active sites

This dissertation describes efforts to model biological active sites with small molecule clusters. The approach used took advantage of a multinucleating ligand to control the structure and nuclearity of the product complexes, allowing the study of many different homo- and heterometallic clusters. Chapter 2 describes the synthesis of the multinucleating hexapyridyl trialkoxy ligand used throughout this thesis and the synthesis of trinuclear first row transition metal complexes supported by this framework, with an emphasis on tricopper systems as models of biological multicopper oxidases. The magnetic susceptibility of these complexes were studied, and a linear relation was found between the Cu-O(alkoxide)-Cu angles and the antiferromagnetic coupling between copper centers. The triiron(II) and trizinc(II) complexes of the ligand were also isolated and structurally characterized.

Chapter 3 describes the synthesis of a series of heterometallic tetranuclear manganese dioxido complexes with various incorporated apical redox-inactive metal cations (M = Na⁺, Ca²⁺, Sr²⁺, Zn²⁺, Y³⁺). Chapter 4 presents the synthesis of heterometallic trimanganese(IV) tetraoxido complexes structurally related to the CaMn₃ subsite of the oxygen-evolving complex (OEC) of Photosystem II. The reduction potentials of these complexes were studied, and it was found that each isostructural series displays a linear correlation between the reduction potentials and the Lewis acidities of the incorporated redox-inactive metals. The slopes of the plotted lines for both the dioxido and tetraoxido clusters are the same, suggesting a more general relationship between the electrochemical potentials of heterometallic manganese oxido clusters and their “spectator” cations. Additionally, these studies suggest that Ca²⁺ plays a role in modulating the redox potential of the OEC for water oxidation.

Chapter 5 presents studies of the effects of the redox-inactive metals on the reactivities of the heterometallic manganese complexes discussed in Chapters 3 and 4. Oxygen atom transfer from the clusters to phosphines is studied; although the reactivity is kinetically controlled in the tetraoxido clusters, the dioxido clusters with more Lewis acidic metal ions (Y³⁺ vs. Ca²⁺) appear to be more reactive. Investigations of hydrogen atom transfer and electron transfer rates are also discussed.

Appendix A describes the synthesis, and metallation reactions of a new dinucleating bis(N-heterocyclic carbene)ligand framework. Dicopper(I) and dicobalt(II) complexes of this ligand were prepared and structurally characterized. A dinickel(I) dichloride complex was synthesized, reduced, and found to activate carbon dioxide. Appendix B describes preliminary efforts to desymmetrize the manganese oxido clusters via functionalization of the basal multinucleating ligand used in the preceding sections of this dissertation. Finally, Appendix C presents some partially characterized side products and unexpected structures that were isolated throughout the course of these studies.

Image sequence segmentation using mixture-models with uniqueness and spatio-temporal consistency constraints

The use of mixture-model techniques for motion estimation and image sequence segmentation was discussed. The issues such as modeling of occlusion and uncovering, determining the relative depth of the objects in a scene, and estimating the number of objects in a scene were also investigated. The segmentation algorithm was found to be computationally demanding, but the computational requirements were reduced as the motion parameters and segmentation of the frame were initialized. The method provided a stable description, in whichthe addition and removal of objects from the description corresponded to the entry and exit of objects from the scene.

Construction of nonparametric Bayesian models from parametric Bayes equations

We consider the general problem of constructing nonparametric Bayesian models on infinite-dimensional random objects, such as functions, infinite graphs or infinite permutations. The problem has generated much interest in machine learning, where it is treated heuristically, but has not been studied in full generality in non-parametric Bayesian statistics, which tends to focus on models over probability distributions. Our approach applies a standard tool of stochastic process theory, the construction of stochastic processes from their finite-dimensional marginal distributions. The main contribution of the paper is a generalization of the classic Kolmogorov extension theorem to conditional probabilities. This extension allows a rigorous construction of nonparametric Bayesian models from systems of finite-dimensional, parametric Bayes equations. Using this approach, we show (i) how existence of a conjugate posterior for the nonparametric model can be guaranteed by choosing conjugate finite-dimensional models in the construction, (ii) how the mapping to the posterior parameters of the nonparametric model can be explicitly determined, and (iii) that the construction of conjugate models in essence requires the finite-dimensional models to be in the exponential family. As an application of our constructive framework, we derive a model on infinite permutations, the nonparametric Bayesian analogue of a model recently proposed for the analysis of rank data.