Transaction based indices for the UK commercial real estate market: an exploration using IPD transaction data

The nature of private commercial real estate markets presents difficulties for monitoring market performance. Assets are heterogeneous and spatially dispersed, trading is infrequent and there is no central marketplace in which prices and cash flows of properties can be easily observed. Appraisal based indices represent one response to these issues. However, these have been criticised on a number of grounds: that they may understate volatility, lag turning points and be affected by client influence issues. Thus, this paper reports econometrically derived transaction based indices of the UK commercial real estate market using Investment Property Databank (IPD) data, comparing them with published appraisal based indices. The method is similar to that presented by Fisher, Geltner, and Pollakowski (2007) and used by Massachusett, Institute of Technology (MIT) on National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF) data, although it employs value rather than equal weighting. The results show stronger growth from the transaction based indices in the run up to the peak in the UK market in 2007. They also show that returns from these series are more volatile and less autocorrelated than their appraisal based counterparts, but, surprisingly, differences in turning points were not found. The conclusion then debates the applications and limitations these series have as measures of market performance.

Occupational futures? Divesting real estate and corporate PFI

Property ownership can tie up large amounts of capital and management energy that business could employ more productively elsewhere. Competitive pressures, accounting changes and increasingly sophisticated occupier requirements are building demand for new and innovative ways to satisfy corporate occupation needs. The investment climate is also changing. Falling interest rates and falling inflation can be expected to undermine returns from the traditional FRI lease. In future, investment returns will be more dependent on active and innovative management geared to the needs of occupiers on whom income depends. Occupier and investor interests, therefore, look set to coincide, but unlocking the potential for both parties will depend on developing new finance and investment vehicles that align their respective needs. In the UK, examples include PFI in the public sector and off-balance sheet financing in the private sector. In the USA, “synthetic lease” structures have also become popular. Growing investment market experience in assessing risks and returns suggests scope for further innovative arrangements in the corporate sector. But how can such arrangements be structured? What are the risks, drivers and barriers?

Real-time identification and modelling in pervasive mining

This paper introduces an architecture for identifying and modelling in real-time at a copper mine using new technologies as M2M and cloud computing with a server in the cloud and an Android client inside the mine. The proposed design brings up pervasive mining, a system with wider coverage, higher communication efficiency, better fault-tolerance, and anytime anywhere availability. This solution was designed for a plant inside the mine which cannot tolerate interruption and for which their identification in situ, in real time, is an essential part of the system to control aspects such as instability by adjusting their corresponding parameters without stopping the process.

Towards a parallel computationally efficient approach to scaling up data stream classification

Advances in hardware technologies allow to capture and process data in real-time and the resulting high throughput data streams require novel data mining approaches. The research area of Data Stream Mining (DSM) is developing data mining algorithms that allow us to analyse these continuous streams of data in real-time. The creation and real-time adaption of classification models from data streams is one of the most challenging DSM tasks. Current classifiers for streaming data address this problem by using incremental learning algorithms. However, even so these algorithms are fast, they are challenged by high velocity data streams, where data instances are incoming at a fast rate. This is problematic if the applications desire that there is no or only a very little delay between changes in the patterns of the stream and absorption of these patterns by the classifier. Problems of scalability to Big Data of traditional data mining algorithms for static (non streaming) datasets have been addressed through the development of parallel classifiers. However, there is very little work on the parallelisation of data stream classification techniques. In this paper we investigate K-Nearest Neighbours (KNN) as the basis for a real-time adaptive and parallel methodology for scalable data stream classification tasks.

On the predictive content of leading indicators: the case of U.S. real estate markets

This paper employs a probit and a Markov switching model using information from the Conference Board Leading Indicator and other predictor variables to forecast the signs of future rental growth in four key U.S. commercial rent series. We find that both approaches have considerable power to predict changes in the direction of commercial rents up to two years ahead, exhibiting strong improvements over a naïve model, especially for the warehouse and apartment sectors. We find that while the Markov switching model appears to be more successful, it lags behind actual turnarounds in market outcomes whereas the probit is able to detect whether rental growth will be positive or negative several quarters ahead.

The take-up of Neighbourhood Planning in England 2011-2015

Exploration of how neighbourhoods and others have responded to the UK government’s localism agenda in England, and specifically towards Neighbourhood Planning (NP), is important given that NP is a prominent part of that policy agenda. It is also of interest as the ramifications emerge for planning practice in the formal introduction of statutory plans which are ostensibly led by communities (Parker et al, 2015; Gallent, 2013). There is a necessary task to provide critical commentary on the socio-economic impact of localist policy. The paper explores the issues arising from experience thus far and highlights the take-up of Neighbourhood Planning since 2011. This assessment shows how a vast majority of those active have been in parished areas and in less-deprived areas. This indicates that government needs to do more to ensure that NP is accessible and worthwhile for a wider range of communities.

Connecting climate model projections of global temperature change with the real world

Current state-of-the-art global climate models produce different values for Earth’s mean temperature. When comparing simulations with each other and with observations it is standard practice to compare temperature anomalies with respect to a reference period. It is not always appreciated that the choice of reference period can affect conclusions, both about the skill of simulations of past climate, and about the magnitude of expected future changes in climate. For example, observed global temperatures over the past decade are towards the lower end of the range of CMIP5 simulations irrespective of what reference period is used, but exactly where they lie in the model distribution varies with the choice of reference period. Additionally, we demonstrate that projections of when particular temperature levels are reached, for example 2K above ‘pre-industrial’, change by up to a decade depending on the choice of reference period. In this article we discuss some of the key issues that arise when using anomalies relative to a reference period to generate climate projections. We highlight that there is no perfect choice of reference period. When evaluating models against observations, a long reference period should generally be used, but how long depends on the quality of the observations available. The IPCC AR5 choice to use a 1986-2005 reference period for future global temperature projections was reasonable, but a case-by-case approach is needed for different purposes and when assessing projections of different climate variables. Finally, we recommend that any studies that involve the use of a reference period should explicitly examine the robustness of the conclusions to alternative choices.

Retinal removal up-regulates cannabinoid CB1 receptors in the chick optic tectum

The endocannabinoid system has been implicated in several neurobiological processes, including neurodegeneration and neuro protection. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of unilateral retinal ablation on the expression of the cannabinoid receptor subtype 1 (CB1) at both protein and mRNA levels in the optic tectum of the adult chick brain. After different survival times postlesion (2-30 days), the chick brains were subjected to immunohistochemical, immunoblotting, and real-time PCR procedures to evaluate CB1 expression. TUNEL and Fluoro-Jade B were used to verify the possible occurrence of cell death, and immunostaining for the microtubule-associated protein MAP-2 was performed to verify possible dendritic remodeling after lesions. No cell death could be observed in the deafferented tectum, at least up to 30 days postlesion, although Fluoro-Jade B could reveal degenerating axons and terminals. Retinal ablation seems to generate an increase of CB1 protein in the optic tectum and other retinorecipient visual areas, which paralleled an increase in MAP-2 staining. On the other hand, CB, mRNA levels were not changed after retinal ablation. Our results reveal that CB, expression in visual structures of the adult chick brain may be negatively regulated by the retinal innervation. The increase of CB1 receptor expression observed after retinal removal indicates that these receptors are not presynaptic in retinal axons projecting to the tectum and suggests a role of the cannabinoid system in plasticity processes ensuing after lesions. (c) 2008 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

A Bayesian model for estimating the malaria transition probabilities considering individuals lost to follow-up

It is known that patients may cease participating in a longitudinal study and become lost to follow-up. The objective of this article is to present a Bayesian model to estimate the malaria transition probabilities considering individuals lost to follow-up. We consider a homogeneous population, and it is assumed that the considered period of time is small enough to avoid two or more transitions from one state of health to another. The proposed model is based on a Gibbs sampling algorithm that uses information of lost to follow-up at the end of the longitudinal study. To simulate the unknown number of individuals with positive and negative states of malaria at the end of the study and lost to follow-up, two latent variables were introduced in the model. We used a real data set and a simulated data to illustrate the application of the methodology. The proposed model showed a good fit to these data sets, and the algorithm did not show problems of convergence or lack of identifiability. We conclude that the proposed model is a good alternative to estimate probabilities of transitions from one state of health to the other in studies with low adherence to follow-up.

Photo-assisted electrochemical degradation of real textile wastewater

In the present study, photo-assisted electrochemical degradation of real textile wastewater was performed. Degradation assays were performed at constant current (40 mA cm(-2)) in a combined electro/photochemical flow-cell using a Ti/Ru(0.3)Ti(0.7)O(2) DSA(R) type electrode. The results show that the method is capable of removing color and chemical oxygen demand (COD) from the effluent. Additionally, the effect of initial pH and type of supporting electrolyte (Na(2)SO(4) or NaCl) was investigated. The principal figures of merit used in this study were COD removal and color removal (605 nm). The results show that up to 72% color and up to 59% COD removal in 120 min is possible under the operating conditions employed. Studies of the phytotoxicity of the wastewater before and after the photo-assisted degradation assays are also presented and the results demonstrate that the toxicity of the effluent is dependent on the length of electrolysis time and the treatment procedure employed.

'They would never receive you without a husband' : Paradoxical barriers to antenatal care scale-up in Rwanda

OBJECTIVE: to explore perspectives and experiences of antenatal care and partner involvement among women who nearly died during pregnancy ('near-miss'). DESIGN: a study guided by naturalistic inquiry was conducted, and included extended in-community participant observation, semi-structured interviews, and focus group discussions. Qualitative data were collected between March 2013 and April 2014 in Kigali, Rwanda. FINDINGS: all informants were aware of the recommendations of male involvement for HIV-testing at the first antenatal care visit. However, this recommendation was seen as a clear link in the chain of delays and led to severe consequences, especially for women without engaged partners. The overall quality of antenatal services was experienced as suboptimal, potentially missing the opportunity to provide preventive measures and essential health education intended for both parents. This seemed to contribute to women's disincentive to complete all four recommended visits and men's interest in attending to ensure their partners' reception of care. However, the participants experienced a restriction of men's access during subsequent antenatal visits, which made men feel denied to their increased involvement during pregnancy. CONCLUSIONS: 'near-miss' women and their partners face paradoxical barriers to actualise the recommended antenatal care visits. The well-intended initiative of male partner involvement counterproductively causes delays or excludes women whereas supportive men are turned away from further health consultations. Currently, the suboptimal quality of antenatal care misses the opportunity to provide health education for the expectant couple or to identify and address early signs of complications IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE: these findings suggest a need for increased flexibility in the antenatal care recommendations to encourage women to attend care with or without their partner, and to create open health communication about women's and men's real needs within the context of their social situations. Supportive partners should not be denied involvement at any stage of pregnancy, but should be received only upon consent of the expectant mother.

Real-Time Flood Forecasting Systems In Flanders

As a highly urbanized and flood prone region, Flanders has experienced multiple floods causing significant damage in the past. In response to the floods of 1998 and 2002 the Flemish Environment Agency, responsible for managing 1 400 km of unnavigable rivers, started setting up a real time flood forecasting system in 2003. Currently the system covers almost 2 000 km of unnavigable rivers, for which flood forecasts are accessible online (www.waterinfo.be). The forecasting system comprises more than 1 000 hydrologic and 50 hydrodynamic models which are supplied with radar rainfall, rainfall forecasts and on-site observations. Forecasts for the next 2 days are generated hourly, while 10 day forecasts are generated twice a day. Additionally, twice daily simulations based on percentile rainfall forecasts (from EPS predictions) result in uncertainty bands for the latter. Subsequent flood forecasts use the most recent rainfall predictions and observed parameters at any time while uncertainty on the longer-term is taken into account. The flood forecasting system produces high resolution dynamic flood maps and graphs at about 200 river gauges and more than 3 000 forecast points. A customized emergency response system generates phone calls and text messages to a team of hydrologists initiating a pro-active response to prevent upcoming flood damage. The flood forecasting system of the Flemish Environment Agency is constantly evolving and has proven to be an indispensable tool in flood crisis management. This was clearly the case during the November 2010 floods, when the agency issued a press release 2 days in advance allowing water managers, emergency services and civilians to take measures.

Discursos e a construção do "real": um estudo do processo de formação e institucionalização do campo da biotecnologia

Comprehension of the processes of formation of new organizational fields is the main objective that stimulated the theoretical reflection and empirical research that I present in this paper. My intention here is to uphold the potential for the application of seemingly dichotomous perspectives in terms of the objectivity/subjectivity dimension in the comprehension of the objective in question. The contribution of Foucault, with his concept of discourse, is linked to the proposal of critical constructivism represented by Latour and studies of science and technology. Juxtaposing these perspectives, I examined the dynamics of the biotechnological field on the basis of the dialectic of movements of demarcation/circularity, which is basically a simultaneous movement of (dis)construction of the boundaries of a field. The dialectic of demarcation/circularity is made up of the set of relations established between heterogeneous elements ¿ institutions, economic and social processes, behavioral patterns, systems of norms, techniques, types of classification, forms of characterization, in other words it finds ways of emerging in the course of discursive formations. This theoretical proposal ¿ which incorporates an overlooked dimension in institutional analysis, especially in organization studies (power) ¿ has the advantage of contributing to enhancing comprehension of the dynamics of institutionalization. By proposing that the institutional processes arise within discursive fields, the argument put forward is that such processes contribute to the productivity of the power relations in these fields. In empirical terms, I conducted a descriptive and exploratory research directed at the biotechnology sector. The research was based on a historical perspective, since the analysis spans the period from the origins of genetic science (beginning of the 20th century) through to recent developments in biotechnology in the USA (beginning of the 21st century). The USA was chosen as the locus of research, principally due to the fact that structuring of the field of biotechnology originated in that country, subsequently spreading to other countries around the world. Starting from this theoretical and methodological framework, three discursive formations are highlighted: organization, information and network. Each of the discursive formations is characterized by a dominant set of discourses that prepare the ground for the appearance and (trans)formation of the focus-objects under analysis. In this process, organizations appear in at least two ways: as boundary-organizations ¿ which are important for understanding the movement of the approximation of different discursive domains ¿ and as new organizations, which accompany the (trans)formation of new fields, whereby prevailing discourses materialize at a given historical moment and contribute to breathe life into new discourses, which in turn spark off new power relations. Among the conclusions of this work, I would highlight the following: questioning the 'organizational' dimension of the fields; the relationship revealed not only between the discourses and the institutionalized practices, but also with the process of construction of legitimacy; and the redefinition of the concept of organizations, based on new conceptions relating to the limits of the topic, the objectivity/subjectivity, and space/time dichotomy.

Comprovação da real comunicação entre o endodonto e o periodonto através do canal cavo inter-radicular e sua prevalência em molares inferiores humanos

The neurovascular system of the pulp and of the periodontium is interconnected and among the possible intercommunications between these two tissues, there is the cavo inter-radicular canal. It is a small canal that goes through any inter-radicular dentine and arises in the furca region of the multi-radicular teeth. Its predominance has been studied in the literature, by several methodologies, with divergent results. The objective of this work was to establish, in vitro, the predominance of the cavo inter-radicular canal, in human lower molars, through the diaphanization technique and dye leakage. For this research, 140 teeth (100 first and second 40 lower molars) were selected, extracted due to different reasons, belonging to a teeth bank of the Endodontics discipline of the Dentistry College at Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte. The teeth were preserved in formol until the moment of use and immersed in physiological solution. Had the endodontic access fulfilled and the whole external surface, except for the furcation, sealed with two layers of nail enamel. The cleaning of the pulpar chamber floor was carried out with sodium hypochlorite solution 5%, being this solution renewed every 5 minutes, during 1 hour. The teeth were immersed in Indian dye and, after drying of the dye, they had their crowns split up in the amelo-cemental junction. Then, they were examined in a stereomicroscope, where marks of the coloring were observed in the furcation and on the pulpar floor. After this recording, the sample was diaphanized and with the transparent teeth, it was possible to observe in the stereomicroscope, the true inter-radicular canals. As a result of this experiment, the presence of these canals was observed in 13 % of the first and 7, 5 % of the second evaluated molars. The study showed that both the presence of the cavo inter-radicular canal is real and the diaphanization and dye leakage is an efficient method for this type of research

Cloning, sequencing and expression analysis of the equine hepcidin gene by real-time PCR

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)