Dietary patterns and risk of oral cancer: a case-control study in São Paulo, Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the association between dietary patterns and oral cancer. METHODS: The study, part of a Latin American multicenter hospital-based case-control study, was conducted in São Paulo, Southeastern Brazil, between November 1998 and March 2002 and included 366 incident cases of oral cancer and 469 controls, frequency-matched with cases by sex and age. Dietary data were collected using a food frequency questionnaire. The risk associated with the intake of food groups defined a posteriori, through factor analysis (called factors), was assessed. The first factor, labeled "prudent," was characterized by the intake of vegetables, fruit, cheese, and poultry. The second factor, "traditional," consisted of the intake of rice, pasta, pulses, and meat. The third factor, "snacks," was characterized as the intake of bread, butter, salami, cheese, cakes, and desserts. The fourth, "monotonous," was inversely associated with the intake of fruit, vegetables and most other food items. Factor scores for each component retained were calculated for cases and controls. After categorization of factor scores into tertiles according to the distribution of controls, odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using unconditional multiple logistic regression. RESULTS: "Traditional" factor showed an inverse association with cancer (OR=0.51; 95% CI: 0.32; 0.81, p-value for trend 0.14), whereas "monotonous" was positively associated with the outcome (OR=1.78; 95% CI: 1.78; 2.85, p-value for trend <0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The study data suggest that the traditional Brazilian diet, consisting of rice and beans plus moderate amounts of meat, may confer protection against oral cancer, independently of any other risk factors such as alcohol intake and smoking.

Control in distribution networks with demand side management

The way in which electricity networks operate is going through a period of significant change. Renewable generation technologies are having a growing presence and increasing penetrations of generation that are being connected at distribution level. Unfortunately, a renewable energy source is most of the time intermittent and needs to be forecasted. Current trends in Smart grids foresee the accommodation of a variety of distributed generation sources including intermittent renewable sources. It is also expected that smart grids will include demand management resources, widespread communications and control technologies required to use demand response are needed to help the maintenance in supply-demand balance in electricity systems. Consequently, smart household appliances with controllable loads will be likely a common presence in our homes. Thus, new control techniques are requested to manage the loads and achieve all the potential energy present in intermittent energy sources. This thesis is focused on the development of a demand side management control method in a distributed network, aiming the creation of greater flexibility in demand and better ease the integration of renewable technologies. In particular, this work presents a novel multi-agent model-based predictive control method to manage distributed energy systems from the demand side, in presence of limited energy sources with fluctuating output and with energy storage in house-hold or car batteries. Specifically, here is presented a solution for thermal comfort which manages a limited shared energy resource via a demand side management perspective, using an integrated approach which also involves a power price auction and an appliance loads allocation scheme. The control is applied individually to a set of Thermal Control Areas, demand units, where the objective is to minimize the energy usage and not exceed the limited and shared energy resource, while simultaneously indoor temperatures are maintained within a comfort frame. Thermal Control Areas are overall thermodynamically connected in the distributed environment and also coupled by energy related constraints. The energy split is performed based on a fixed sequential order established from a previous completed auction wherein the bids are made by each Thermal Control Area, acting as demand side management agents, based on the daily energy price. The developed solutions are explained with algorithms and are applied to different scenarios, being the results explanatory of the benefits of the proposed approaches.

Progression of Blood Pressure and Cardiovascular Outcomes in Hypertensive Patients in a Reference Center

Background: Hypertension is a public health problem, considering its high prevalence, low control rate and cardiovascular complications. Objective: Evaluate the control of blood pressure (BP) and cardiovascular outcomes in patients enrolled at the Reference Center for Hypertension and Diabetes, located in a medium-sized city in the Midwest Region of Brazil. Methods: Population-based study comparing patients enrolled in the service at the time of their admission and after an average follow-up of five years. Participants were aged ≥18 years and were regularly monitored at the Center up to 6 months before data collection. We assessed demographic variables, BP, body mass index, risk factors, and cardiovascular outcomes. Results: We studied 1,298 individuals, predominantly women (60.9%), and with mean age of 56.7±13.1 years. Over time, there was a significant increase in physical inactivity, alcohol consumption, diabetes, dyslipidemia, and excessive weight. As for cardiovascular outcomes, we observed an increase in stroke and myocardial revascularization, and a lower frequency of chronic renal failure. During follow-up, there was significant improvement in the rate of BP control (from 29.6% to 39.6%; p = 0.001) and 72 deaths, 91.7% of which were due to cardiovascular diseases. Conclusion: Despite considerable improvements in the rate of BP control during follow-up, risk factors worsened and cardiovascular outcomes increased.

Environmental Tax on Products and Services Based on Their Carbon Footprint: A Case Study of the Pulp and Paper Sector

The main aim of this work is to define an environmental tax on products and services based on their carbon footprint. We examine the relevance of conventional life cycle analysis (LCA) and environmentally extended input-output analysis (EIO) as methodological tools to identify emission intensities of products and services on which the tax is based. The short-term price effects of the tax and the policy implications of considering non-GHG are also analyzed. The results from the specific case study on pulp production show that the environmental tax rate based on the LCA approach (1,8%) is higher than both EIO approaches (0,8% for product and 1,4% for industry approach), but they are comparable. Even though LCA is more product specific and provides detailed analysis, EIO would be the more relevant approach to apply economy wide environmental tax. When the environmental tax considers non-GHG emissions instead of only CO2, sectors such as agriculture, mining of coal and extraction of peat, and food exhibit higher environmental tax and price effects. Therefore, it is worthwhile for policy makers to pay attention on the implication of considering only CO2 tax or GHG emissions tax in order for such a policy measure to be effective and meaningful. Keywords: Environmental tax; Life cycle analysis; Environmental input-output analysis.

Is imidacloprid an effective alternative for controlling pyrethroid-resistant populations of Triatoma infestans (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) in the Gran Chaco ecoregion?

The prevention of Chagas disease is based primarily on the chemical control of Triatoma infestans (Klug) using pyrethroid insecticides. However, high resistance levels, correlated with control failures, have been detected in Argentina and Bolivia. A previous study at our laboratory found that imidacloprid could serve as an alternative to pyrethroid insecticides. We studied the delayed toxicity of imidacloprid and the influence of the blood feeding condition of the insect on the toxicity of this insecticide; we also studied the effectiveness of various commercial imidacloprid formulations against a pyrethroid-resistant T. infestans population from the Gran Chaco ecoregion. Variations in the toxic effects of imidacloprid were not observed up to 72 h after exposure and were not found to depend on the blood feeding condition of susceptible and resistant individuals. Of the three different studied formulations of imidacloprid on glass and filter paper, only the spot-on formulation was effective. This formulation was applied to pigeons at doses of 1, 5, 20 and 40 mg/bird. The nymphs that fed on pigeons treated with 20 mg or 40 mg of the formulation showed a higher mortality rate than the control group one day and seven days post-treatment (p < 0.01). A spot-on formulation of imidacloprid was effective against pyrethroid-resistant T. infestans populations at the laboratory level.

Intrauterine exposure to carbamazepine and specific congenital malformations: systematic review and case-control study.

OBJECTIVE: To identify specific major congenital malformations associated with use of carbamazepine in the first trimester of pregnancy. DESIGN: A review of all published cohort studies to identify key indications and a population based case-control study to test these indications. SETTING: Review of PubMed, Web of Science, and Embase for papers about carbamazepine exposure in the first trimester of pregnancy and specific malformations, and the EUROCAT Antiepileptic Study Database, including data from 19 European population based congenital anomaly registries, 1995-2005. PARTICIPANTS: The literature review covered eight cohort studies of 2680 pregnancies with carbamazepine monotherapy exposure, and the EUROCAT dataset included 98 075 registrations of malformations covering over 3.8 million births. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Overall prevalence for a major congenital malformation after exposure to carbamazepine monotherapy in the first trimester. Odds ratios for malformations with exposure to carbamazepine among cases (five types of malformation identified in the literature review) compared with two groups of controls: other non-chromosomal registrations of malformations and chromosomal syndromes. RESULTS: The literature review yielded an overall prevalence for a major congenital malformation of 3.3% (95% confidence interval 2.7 to 4.2) after exposure to carbamazepine monotherapy in the first trimester. In 131 registrations of malformations, the fetus had been exposed to carbamazepine monotherapy. Spina bifida was the only specific major congenital malformation significantly associated with exposure to carbamazepine monotherapy (odds ratio 2.6 (95% confidence interval 1.2 to 5.3) compared with no antiepileptic drug), but the risk was smaller for carbamazepine than for valproic acid (0.2, 0.1 to 0.6). There was no evidence for an association with total anomalous pulmonary venous return (no cases with carbamazepine exposure), cleft lip (with or without palate) (0.2, 0.0 to 1.3), diaphragmatic hernia (0.9, 0.1 to 6.6), or hypospadias (0.7, 0.3 to 1.6) compared with no exposure to antiepileptic drugs. Further exploratory analysis suggested a higher risk of single ventricle and atrioventricular septal defect. CONCLUSION: Carbamazepine teratogenicity is relatively specific to spina bifida, though the risk is less than with valproic acid. Despite the large dataset, there was not enough power to detect moderate risks for some rare major congenital malformations.

Managing hypertension in high-risk patients: lessons and promises from the STRATHE and ADVANCE trials.

Pharmacological treatment of hypertension represents a cost-effective way of preventing cardiovascular and renal complications. To benefit maximally from antihypertensive treatment, blood pressure should be brought to below 140/90 mmHg in every hypertensive patient, and even lower (< 130/80 mmHg) if diabetes or renal disease co-exists. Such targets cannot usually be reached using monotherapies. This is especially true in patients who present with a high cardiovascular risk. The co-administration of two agents acting by different mechanisms considerably increases the blood pressure control rate. Such combinations are not only efficacious, but are also well tolerated, and some fixed low-dose combinations even have a placebo-like tolerability. This is the case for the preparation containing the angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor perindopril (2 mg) and the diuretic indapamide (0.625 mg), a fixed low-dose combination that has been shown in controlled trials to be more effective than monotherapies in reducing albuminuria, regressing cardiac hypertrophy and improving the stiffness of large arteries. Using this combination to initiate antihypertensive therapy has been shown in a double-blind trial (Strategies of Treatment in Hypertension: Evaluation; STRATHE) to normalize blood pressure (< 140/90 mmHg) in significantly more patients (62%) than a sequential monotherapy approach based on atenolol, losartan and amlodipine (49%) and a stepped-care strategy based on valsartan and hydrochlorothiazide (47%), with no difference between the three arm groups in terms of tolerability. An ongoing randomized trial (Action in Diabetes and Vascular Disease: Preterax and Diamicron Modified Release Controlled Evaluation; ADVANCE) is a study with a 2 x 2 factorial design assessing the effects of the fixed-dose perindopril-indapamide combination and of the intensive gliclazide modified release-based glucose control regimen in type 2 diabetic patients, with or without hypertension. A total of 11 140 patients were randomly selected. Within the first 6 weeks of treatment (run-in phase), the perindopril-indapamide combination lowered blood pressure from 145/81 +/- 22/11 mmHg (mean +/- SD) to 137/78 +/- 20/10 mmHg. Fixed-dose combinations are becoming more and more popular for the management of hypertension, and are even proposed by hypertension guidelines as a first-line option to treat hypertensive patients.

Elevated serum uric acid is associated with high circulating inflammatory cytokines in the population-based Colaus study.

BACKGROUND: The relation of serum uric acid (SUA) with systemic inflammation has been little explored in humans and results have been inconsistent. We analyzed the association between SUA and circulating levels of interleukin-6 (IL-6), interleukin-1beta (IL-1beta), tumor necrosis factor- alpha (TNF-alpha) and C-reactive protein (CRP). METHODS AND FINDINGS: This cross-sectional population-based study conducted in Lausanne, Switzerland, included 6085 participants aged 35 to 75 years. SUA was measured using uricase-PAP method. Plasma TNF-alpha, IL-1beta and IL-6 were measured by a multiplexed particle-based flow cytometric assay and hs-CRP by an immunometric assay. The median levels of SUA, IL-6, TNF-alpha, CRP and IL-1beta were 355 micromol/L, 1.46 pg/mL, 3.04 pg/mL, 1.2 mg/L and 0.34 pg/mL in men and 262 micromol/L, 1.21 pg/mL, 2.74 pg/mL, 1.3 mg/L and 0.45 pg/mL in women, respectively. SUA correlated positively with IL-6, TNF-alpha and CRP and negatively with IL-1beta (Spearman r: 0.04, 0.07, 0.20 and 0.05 in men, and 0.09, 0.13, 0.30 and 0.07 in women, respectively, P<0.05). In multivariable analyses, SUA was associated positively with CRP (beta coefficient +/- SE = 0.35+/-0.02, P<0.001), TNF-alpha (0.08+/-0.02, P<0.001) and IL-6 (0.10+/-0.03, P<0.001), and negatively with IL-1beta (-0.07+/-0.03, P = 0.027). Upon further adjustment for body mass index, these associations were substantially attenuated. CONCLUSIONS: SUA was associated positively with IL-6, CRP and TNF-alpha and negatively with IL-1beta, particularly in women. These results suggest that uric acid contributes to systemic inflammation in humans and are in line with experimental data showing that uric acid triggers sterile inflammation.

Lung Cancer That Harbors an HER2 Mutation: Epidemiologic Characteristics and Therapeutic Perspectives.

PURPOSE HER2 mutations are identified in approximately 2%of non-small-cell lung cancers (NSCLC). There are few data available that describe the clinical course of patients with HER2-mutated NSCLC. PATIENTS AND METHODS We retrospectively identified 65 NSCLC, diagnosed with a HER2 in-frame insertion in exon 20. We collected clinicopathologic characteristics, patients' outcomes, and treatments. Results HER2 mutation was identified in 65 (1.7%) of 3,800 patients tested and was almost an exclusive driver, except for one single case with a concomitant KRAS mutation. Our population presented with a median age of 60 years (range, 31 to 86 years), a high proportion of women (45 women v 20 men; 69%), and a high proportion of never-smokers (n= 34; 52.3%). All tumors were adenocarcinomas and 50% were stage IV at diagnosis. For these latter cases, 22 anti-human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) treatments were administered after conventional chemotherapy in 16 patients. Subsequently, four patients experienced progressive disease, seven experienced disease stabilizations, and 11 experienced partial responses (overall response rate, 50%; disease control rate [DCR], 82%). Specifically, we observed a DCR of 93% for trastuzumab-based therapies (n = 15) and a DCR of 100% for afatinib (n = 3) but no response to other HER2-targeted drugs (n = 3). Progression-free survival for patients with HER2 therapies was 5.1 months. Median survival was of 89.6 and 22.9 months for early-stage and stage IV patients, respectively. CONCLUSION This study, the largest to date dedicated to HER2-mutated NSCLC, reinforces the importance of screening for HER2 mutations in lung adenocarcinomas and suggests the potential efficacy of HER2-targeted drugs in this population.

Levels and determinants of inflammatory biomarkers in a Swiss population-based sample (CoLaus Study).

OBJECTIVE: to assess the levels and determinants of interleukin (IL)-1ß, IL-6, tumour necrosis factor (TNF)-a and C-reactive protein (CRP) in a healthy Caucasian population.METHODS: population sample of 2884 men and 3201 women aged 35 to 75. IL-1ß, IL-6 and TNF-a were assessed by a multiplexed particle-based flow cytometric assay and CRP by an immunometric assay.RESULTS: Spearman rank correlations between duplicate cytokine measurements (N?=?80) ranged between 0.89 and 0.96; intra-class correlation coefficients ranged between 0.94 and 0.97, indicating good reproducibility. Among the 6085 participants, 2289 (37.6%), 451 (7.4%) and 43 (0.7%) had IL-1ß, IL-6 and TNF-a levels below detection limits, respectively. Median (interquartile range) for participants with detectable values were 1.17 (0.48-3.90) pg/ml for IL-1ß; 1.47 (0.71-3.53) pg/ml for IL-6; 2.89 (1.82-4.53) pg/ml for TNF-a and 1.3 (0.6-2.7) ng/ml for CRP. On multivariate analysis, greater age was the only factor inversely associated with IL-1ß levels. Male sex, increased BMI and smoking were associated with greater IL-6 levels, while no relationship was found for age and leisure-time PA. Male sex, greater age, increased BMI and current smoking were associated with greater TNF-a levels, while no relationship was found with leisure-time PA. CRP levels were positively related to age, BMI and smoking, and inversely to male sex and physical activity.CONCLUSION: Population-based levels of several cytokines were established. Increased age and BMI, and to a lesser degree sex and smoking, significantly and differentially impact cytokine levels, while leisure-time physical activity has little effect.

A Gain Scheduling Model Predictive Controller for Blood Glucose Control in Type 1 Diabetes

This paper presents a control strategy for blood glucose(BG) level regulation in type 1 diabetic patients. To design the controller, model-based predictive control scheme has been applied to a newly developed diabetic patient model. The controller is provided with a feedforward loop to improve meal compensation, a gain-scheduling scheme to account for different BG levels, and an asymmetric cost function to reduce hypoglycemic risk. A simulation environment that has been approved for testing of artificial pancreas control algorithms has been used to test thecontroller. The simulation results show a good controller performance in fasting conditions and meal disturbance rejection, and robustness against model–patient mismatch and errors in mealestimation

Association of statins with inflammatory cytokines: a population-based Colaus study.

PURPOSE: A pleiotropic effect of statins has been reported in numerous studies. However, the association between statin use and inflammatory cytokines is controversial. We examined the associations between statin use and C-reactive protein (CRP), tumour necrosis factor α (TNF-α), interleukin-1β (IL-1β) and interleukin-6 (IL-6) in a healthy Caucasian population. METHODS: Cross-sectional study of 6184 participants aged 35-75years from Lausanne, Switzerland. Cytokines were assessed by multiplexed particle-based flow cytometric assay. Self-reported history of medication was collected for statins and other medication. 99 participants without cytokine data were excluded. RESULTS: Among the 6085 participants, 2289 (37.6%), 451 (7.4%) and 43 (0.7%) had IL-1β, IL-6 and TNF-α levels below detection limits, respectively. On multivariate analysis adjusting for age, gender, smoking status, body mass index, hypertension, diabetes, baseline cardiovascular disease, total cholesterol, anti-inflammatory use, other cytokine modifying drugs and other drugs, participants on statins had significantly lower CRP levels (adjusted mean±standard error: 1.22±1.05 vs. 1.38±1.04mg/L for use and non-use, respectively, p<0.01 on log-transformed data). Conversely, no association was found between statin use and IL-1β (p=0.91), IL-6 (p=0.25) or TNF-α (p=0.28) levels. On multivariate analysis, individuals in the statin group (β coefficient=-0.12; 95% CI=-0.21, -0.03) had lower levels of CRP as compared to those in the reference group (i.e. those not using statin). However, no significant associations were observed between IL-1β, IL-6 and TNF-α and statins. CONCLUSION: Individuals on statins have lower CRP levels; conversely, no effect was found for IL-1β, IL-6 and TNF-α levels.

Cytokines and hs-CRP levels in individuals treated with low-dose aspirin for cardiovascular prevention: a population-based study (CoLaus Study).

Pro-inflammatory cytokines and high-sensitive C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) are associated with increased risk for cardiovascular disease. Low-dose aspirin for CV prevention is reported to have anti-inflammatory effects. The aim of this study was to determine the association between pro-inflammatory cytokines and hs-CRP levels and low-dose aspirin use for cardiovascular prevention in a population-based cohort (CoLaus Study). We assessed blood samples in 6085 participants (3201 women) aged 35-75years. Medications' use and indications were recorded. Among aspirin users (n=1'034; 17%), overall low-dose users (351; 5.8%) and low-dose for cardiovascular prevention users (324; 5.3%) were selected for analysis. Pro-inflammatory cytokines (IL-1β, IL-6 and TNF-α were assessed by a multiplex particle-based flow cytometric assay and hs-CRP by an immunometric assay. Cytokines and hs-CRP were presented in quartiles. Multivariate analysis adjusting for sex, age, smoking status, body mass index, diabetes mellitus and immunomodulatory drugs showed no association between cytokines and hs-CRP levels and low-dose aspirin use for cardiovascular prevention, either comparing the topmost vs. the three other quartiles (OR 95% CI, 0.84 (0.59-1.18), 1.03 (0.78-1.32), 1.10 (0.83-1.46), 1.00 (0.67-1.69) for IL-1β, IL-6, TNF-α and hs-CRP, respectively), or comparing the topmost quartile vs. the first one (OR 95% CI, 0.87 (0.60-1.26), 1.19 (0.79-1.79), 1.26 (0.86-1.84), 1.06 (0.67-1.69)). Low-dose aspirin use for cardiovascular prevention does not impact plasma pro-inflammatory cytokine and hs-CRP levels in a population-based cohort.

Should Koos grade I vestibular schwannomas be treated early with gamma knife surgery? A subgroup analysis in a series of 190 consecutive patients.

INTRODUCTION: Gamma knife surgery (GKS) for vestibular schwannomas (VS) has a long-term clinical and scientific track record. After a period of de-escalation of dose prescription, results show a high rate of tumor control with improvement of clinical outcome (less than 1% facial palsy, 50-70% hearing preservation). Régis et al. (J Neurosurg 2013;119 Suppl.:105-11) suggested recently that proactive GKS management in intracanalicular tumors is better than a « wait and see » strategy when hearing is still useful at the time of diagnosis. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Based on these previous findings, we prospectively analyzed 190 vestibular schwannomas (VS), treated with GKS as first intention over a period of 4 years (2010-2014). We concentrated on patient, tumor and dosimetric characteristics. Special attention was given on the dose to the cochlea and its impact in maintaining serviceable hearing. RESULTS: The mean follow-up period was 1.3years (range 0.6-3.6). Preoperative serviceable hearing was present in 63.11% patients. The mean maximal diameter was 15.1mm (range 5-29.5). The size and volume of the tumor corresponded to Koos grade I, II, III and IV in 15.9%, 34.8%, 45.4% and 3.8% of the cases, respectively. The mean target volume was 1.24cm(3) (0.017-7.8). The mean prescription isodose volume was 1.6 cc (0.032-8.5). The mean marginal dose was 12Gy (11-12). The mean maximal dose received by the cochlea in patients with GR class 1 and 2 was 4.1Gy (1.5-7.6). Our preliminary neuroradiological follow-up shows 97% tumor control, with 45% shrinkage. Patients presenting with GR class 1 and class 2 at baseline retained serviceable hearing in 85% of cases. Among the patients with a follow-up of at least one year, those with Koos I tumors had the highest probability to maintain identical level of hearing after GKS. CONCLUSION: Our preliminary data suggest that Koos I patients should be treated early with GKS, before tumor growth and/or hearing deterioration, as they have the highest probability of hearing preservation.

Cytokines and hs-CRP levels in individuals treated with aspirin for cardiovascular prevention: a population-based study (CoLaus Study)

Backgrounds: Pro-inflammatory cytokines and high-sensitive C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) are associated with increased risk for cardiovascular disease. Low-dose aspirin for cardiovascular (CV) prevention is reported to have anti-inflammatory effects. The aim of this study was to determine the association between cytokines and hs-CRP levels and low-dose aspirin use for CV prevention in a population-based cohort (CoLaus Study). Methods and Results: Blood samples were assessed in 6,085 participants (3,201 women) aged 35-75 years. Medications' use and indications were recorded. Among aspirin users (n=1'034; 17%), overall low-dose (351; 5.8%) and low-dose for CV prevention (324; 5.3%) users were specifically selected for analysis. IL-1beta, IL-6 and TNF-alpha were assessed by a multiplex particle-based flow cytometric assay and hs-CRP by an immunometric assay. Cytokines and hs-CRP were presented in quartiles. Multivariate analysis adjusting for sex, age, smoking status, body mass index, concomitant use of various immunomodulatory drugs, diabetes mellitus showed no association between cytokines and hs-CRP levels and low-dose aspirin use for CV prevention either comparing the topmost vs. the three other quartiles (OR 95% CI, 0.84 (0.59 - 1.18), 1.03 (0.78 - 1.32), 1.10 (0.83 - 1.46), 1.00 (0.67 - 1.69) for IL-1beta, IL-6, TNF-alpha and hs-CRP, respectively), or comparing the topmost quartile vs. the first one (OR 95% CI, 0.87 (0.60 - 1.26), 1.19 (0.79 - 1.79), 1.26 (0.86 - 1.84), 1.06 (0.67 - 1.69)). Conclusions: Low-dose aspirin use for cardiovascular prevention does not seem to impact plasma cytokine and hs-CRP levels in a population-based cohort.