Contraceptive changes after reproductive events among Australian women born in 1973 to 1978: A longitudinal study from 1996 to 2009

Background Women change contraception as they try to conceive, space births, and limit family size. This longitudinal analysis examines contraception changes after reproductive events such as birth, miscarriage or termination among Australian women born from 1973 to 1978 to identify potential opportunities to increase the effectiveness of contraceptive information and service provision. Methods Between 1996 and 2009, 5,631 Australian women randomly sampled from the Australian universal health insurance (Medicare) database completed five self-report postal surveys. Three longitudinal logistic regression models were used to assess the associations between reproductive events (birth only, birth and miscarriage, miscarriage only, termination only, other multiple events, and no new event) and subsequent changes in contraceptive use (start using, stop using, switch method) compared with women who continued to use the same method. Results After women experienced only a birth, or a birth and a miscarriage, they were more likely to start using contraception. Women who experienced miscarriages were more likely to stop using contraception. Women who experienced terminations were more likely to switch methods. There was a significant interaction between reproductive events and time indicating more changes in contraceptive use as women reach their mid-30s. Conclusion Contraceptive use increases after the birth of a child, but decreases after miscarriage indicating the intention for family formation and spacing between children. Switching contraceptive methods after termination suggests these pregnancies were unintended and possibly due to contraceptive failure. Women’s contact with health professionals around the time of reproductive events provides an opportunity to provide contraceptive services.

Living through extreme weather events and natural disasters: How resilient are our high-rise high-density typologies?

The inner city Brisbane suburbs of the West End peninsula are poised for redevelopment. Located within walking distance to CBD workplaces, home to Queensland’s highest value cultural precinct, and high quality riverside parklands, there is currently a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to redevelop parts of the suburb to create a truly urban neighbourhood. According to a local community association, local residents agree and embrace the concept of high-density living, but are opposed to the high-rise urban form (12 storeys) advocated by the City’s planning authority (BCC, 2011) and would prefer to see medium-rise (5-8 storeys) medium-density built form. Brisbane experienced a major flood event which inundated the peninsula suburbs of West End in summer January 2011. The vulnerability of taller buildings to the vagaries of climate and more extreme weather events and their reliance on main electricity was exposed when power outages immediately before, during and after the flood disaster seriously limited occupants’ access and egress when elevators were disabled. Not all buildings were flooded but dwellings quickly became unliveable due to disabled air-conditioning. Some tall buildings remained uninhabitable for several weeks after the event. This paper describes an innovative design research method applied to the complex problem of resilient, sustainable neighbourhood form in subtropical cities, in which a thorough comparative analysis of a range of multiple-dwelling types has revealed the impact that government policy regarding design of the physical environment has on a community’s resilience. The outcomes advocate the role of climate-responsive design in averting the rising human capital and financial costs of natural disasters and climate change.

Modelling web-server Flash Events

A Flash Event (FE) represents a period of time when a web-server experiences a dramatic increase in incoming traffic, either following a newsworthy event that has prompted users to locate and access it, or as a result of redirection from other popular web or social media sites. This usually leads to network congestion and Quality-of-Service (QoS) degradation. These events can be mistaken for Distributed Denial-of-Service (DDoS) attacks aimed at disrupting the server. Accurate detection of FEs and their distinction from DDoS attacks is important, since different actions need to be undertaken by network administrators in these two cases. However, lack of public domain FE datasets hinders research in this area. In this paper we present a detailed study of flash events and classify them into three broad categories. In addition, the paper describes FEs in terms of three key components: the volume of incoming traffic, the related source IP-addresses, and the resources being accessed. We present such a FE model with minimal parameters and use publicly available datasets to analyse and validate our proposed model. The model can be used to generate different types of FE traffic, closely approximating real-world scenarios, in order to facilitate research into distinguishing FEs from DDoS attacks.

Risk factors to predict the incidence of surgical adverse events following open or laparoscopic surgery for apparent early stage endometrial cancer: results from a randomised controlled trial

Aims: To identify risk factors for major Adverse Events (AEs) and to develop a nomogram to predict the probability of such AEs in individual patients who have surgery for apparent early stage endometrial cancer. Methods: We used data from 753 patients who were randomized to either total laparoscopic hysterectomy or total abdominal hysterectomy in the LACE trial. Serious adverse events that prolonged hospital stay or postoperative adverse events (using common terminology criteria 3+, CTCAE V3) were considered major AEs. We analyzed pre-surgical characteristics that were associated with the risk of developing major AEs by multivariate logistic regression. We identified a parsimonious model by backward stepwise logistic regression. The six most significant or clinically important variables were included in the nomogram to predict the risk of major AEs within 6 weeks of surgery and the nomogram was internally validated. Results: Overall, 132 (17.5%) patients had at least one major AE. An open surgical approach (laparotomy), higher Charlson’s medical co-morbidities score, moderately differentiated tumours on curettings, higher baseline ECOG score, higher body mass index and low haemoglobin levels were associated with AE and were used in the nomogram. The bootstrap corrected concordance index of the nomogram was 0.63 and it showed good calibration. Conclusions: Six pre-surgical factors independently predicted the risk of major AEs. This research might form the basis to develop risk reduction strategies to minimize the risk of AEs among patients undergoing surgery for apparent early stage endometrial cancer.

Targeted flight opportunities with large area collectors

A major factor in the stratospheric collection process is the relative density of particles at the collection altitude. With current aircraft-borne collector plate geometries, one potential extraterrestrial particle of about 10 micron diameter is collected approximately every hour. However, a new design for the collector plate, termed the Large Area Collector (LAC), allows a factor of 10 improvement in collection efficiency over current conventional geometry. The implementation of LAC design on future stratospheric collection flights will provide many opportunities for additional data on both terrestrial and extraterrestrial phenomena. With the improvement in collection efficiency, LAC's may provide a suitable number of potential extraterrestrial particles in one short flight of between 4 and 8 hours duration. Alternatively, total collection periods of approximately 40 hours enhance the probability that rare particles can be retrieved from the stratosphere. This latter approach is of great value for the cosmochemist who may wish to perform sophisticated analyses on interplanetary dust greater than a picogram. The former approach, involving short duration flights, may also provide invaluable data on the source of many extraterrestrial particles. The time dependence of particle entry to the collection altitude is an important parameter which may be correlated with specific global events (e.g., meteoroid streams) provided the collection time is known to an accuracy of 2 hours.

Protection of structural systems and mechanisms from catastrophic and life-threatening failure caused by unforeseeable events

Structural framing systems and mechanisms designed for normal use rarely possess adequate robustness to withstand the effects of large impacts, blasts and extreme earthquakes that have been experienced in recent times. Robustness is the property of systems that enables them to survive unforeseen or unusual circumstances (Knoll & Vogel, 2009). Queensland University of Technology with industry collaboration is engaged in a program of research that commenced 15 years ago to study the impact of such unforeseeable phenomena and investigate methods of improving robustness and safety with protective mechanisms embedded or designed in structural systems. This paper highlights some of the research pertaining to seismic protection of building structures, rollover protective structures and effects of vehicular impact and blast on key elements in structures that could propagate catastrophic and disproportionate collapse.

Long summer days : grounded learning of words for the uneven cycles of real world events

Time and space are fundamental to human language and embodied cognition. In our early work we investigated how Lingodroids, robots with the ability to build their own maps, could evolve their own geopersonal spatial language. In subsequent studies we extended the framework developed for learning spatial concepts and words to learning temporal intervals. This paper considers a new aspect of time, the naming of concepts like morning, afternoon, dawn, and dusk, which are events that are part of day-night cycles, but are not defined by specific time points on a clock. Grounding of such terms refers to events and features of the diurnal cycle, such as light levels. We studied event-based time in which robots experienced day-night cycles that varied with the seasons throughout a year. Then we used meet-at tasks to demonstrate that the words learned were grounded, where the times to meet were morning and afternoon, rather than specific clock times. The studies show how words and concepts for a novel aspect of cyclic time can be grounded through experience with events rather than by times as measured by clocks or calendars

Determining process model precision and generalization with weighted artificial negative events

Process mining encompasses the research area which is concerned with knowledge discovery from event logs. One common process mining task focuses on conformance checking, comparing discovered or designed process models with actual real-life behavior as captured in event logs in order to assess the “goodness” of the process model. This paper introduces a novel conformance checking method to measure how well a process model performs in terms of precision and generalization with respect to the actual executions of a process as recorded in an event log. Our approach differs from related work in the sense that we apply the concept of so-called weighted artificial negative events towards conformance checking, leading to more robust results, especially when dealing with less complete event logs that only contain a subset of all possible process execution behavior. In addition, our technique offers a novel way to estimate a process model’s ability to generalize. Existing literature has focused mainly on the fitness (recall) and precision (appropriateness) of process models, whereas generalization has been much more difficult to estimate. The described algorithms are implemented in a number of ProM plugins, and a Petri net conformance checking tool was developed to inspect process model conformance in a visual manner.

Detecting distributed Denial-of-Service attacks and Flash Events

This thesis investigates and develops techniques for accurately detecting Internet-based Distributed Denial-of-Service (DDoS) Attacks where an adversary harnesses the power of thousands of compromised machines to disrupt the normal operations of a Web-service provider, resulting in significant down-time and financial losses. This thesis also develops methods to differentiate these attacks from similar-looking benign surges in web-traffic known as Flash Events (FEs). This thesis also addresses an intrinsic challenge in research associated with DDoS attacks, namely, the extreme scarcity of public domain datasets (due to legal and privacy issues) by developing techniques to realistically emulate DDoS attack and FE traffic.

Infrared and Raman spectroscopic characterization of the carbonate mineral huanghoite - and in comparison with selected rare earth carbonates

Raman spectroscopy complimented with infrared spectroscopy has been used to study the rare earth based mineral huanghoite with possible formula given as BaCe(CO3)2F and compared with the Raman spectra of a series of selected natural halogenated carbonates from different origins including bastnasite, parisite and northupite. The Raman spectrum of huanghoite displays three bands are at 1072, 1084 and 1091 cm−1 attributed to the symmetric stretching vibration. The observation of three symmetric stretching vibrations is very unusual. The position of symmetric stretching vibration varies with mineral composition. Infrared spectroscopy of huanghoite show bands at 1319, 1382, 1422 and 1470 cm−1. No Raman bands of huanghoite were observed in these positions. Raman spectra of bastnasite, parisite and northupite show a single band at 1433, 1420 and 1554 cm−1 assigned to the ν3 (CO3)2− antisymmetric stretching mode. The observation of additional Raman bands for the ν3 modes for some halogenated carbonates is significant in that it shows distortion of the carbonate anion in the mineral structure. Four Raman bands for huanghoite are observed at 687, 704, 718 and 730 cm−1and assigned to the (CO3)2− ν2 bending modes. Raman bands are observed for huanghoite at around 627 cm−1 and are assigned to the (CO3)2− ν4 bending modes. Raman bands are observed for the carbonate ν4 in phase bending modes at 722 cm−1 for bastnasite, 736 and 684 cm−1 for parisite, 714 cm−1 for northupite. Raman bands for huanghoite observed at 3259, 3484 and 3589 cm−1 are attributed to water stretching bands. Multiple bands are observed in the OH stretching region for bastnasite and parisite indicating the presence of water and OH units in their mineral structure. Vibrational spectroscopy enables new information on the structure of huanghoite to be assessed.

Modeling electricity price events as point processes

Energy prices are highly volatile and often feature unexpected spikes. It is the aim of this paper to examine whether the occurrence of these extreme price events displays any regularities that can be captured using an econometric model. Here we treat these price events as point processes and apply Hawkes and Poisson autoregressive models to model the dynamics in the intensity of this process.We use load and meteorological information to model the time variation in the intensity of the process. The models are applied to data from the Australian wholesale electricity market, and a forecasting exercise illustrates both the usefulness of these models and their limitations when attempting to forecast the occurrence of extreme price events.

Detecting anomalous events at railway level crossings

Collisions between pedestrians and vehicles continue to be a major problem throughout the world. Pedestrians trying to cross roads and railway tracks without any caution are often highly susceptible to collisions with vehicles and trains. Continuous financial, human and other losses have prompted transport related organizations to come up with various solutions addressing this issue. However, the quest for new and significant improvements in this area is still ongoing. This work addresses this issue by building a general framework using computer vision techniques to automatically monitor pedestrian movements in such high-risk areas to enable better analysis of activity, and the creation of future alerting strategies. As a result of rapid development in the electronics and semi-conductor industry there is extensive deployment of CCTV cameras in public places to capture video footage. This footage can then be used to analyse crowd activities in those particular places. This work seeks to identify the abnormal behaviour of individuals in video footage. In this work we propose using a Semi-2D Hidden Markov Model (HMM), Full-2D HMM and Spatial HMM to model the normal activities of people. The outliers of the model (i.e. those observations with insufficient likelihood) are identified as abnormal activities. Location features, flow features and optical flow textures are used as the features for the model. The proposed approaches are evaluated using the publicly available UCSD datasets, and we demonstrate improved performance using a Semi-2D Hidden Markov Model compared to other state of the art methods. Further we illustrate how our proposed methods can be applied to detect anomalous events at rail level crossings.

Selecting rainfall events for effective Water Sensitive Urban Design (WSUD) implementation

The current approach for protecting the receiving water environment from urban stormwater pollution is the adoption of structural measures commonly referred to as Water Sensitive Urban Design (WSUD). The treatment efficiency of WSUD measures closely depends on the design of the specific treatment units. As stormwater quality can be influenced by rainfall characteristics, the selection of appropriate rainfall events for treatment design is essential to ensure the effectiveness of WSUD systems. Based on extensive field investigation of four urban residential catchments and computer modelling, this paper details a technically robust approach for the selection of rainfall events for stormwater treatment design using a three-component model. The modelling outcomes indicate that selecting smaller average recurrence interval (ARI) events with high intensity-short duration as the threshold for the treatment system design is the most feasible since these events cumulatively generate a major portion of the annual pollutant load compared to the other types of rainfall events, despite producing a relatively smaller runoff volume. This implies that designs based on small and more frequent rainfall events rather than larger rainfall events would be appropriate in the context of efficiency in treatment performance, cost-effectiveness and possible savings in land area needed.