Probability inundation map for a scenario combining storm surge and sea-level rise

Coastal managers require reliable spatial data on the extent and timing of potential coastal inundation, particularly in a changing climate. Most sea level rise (SLR) vulnerability assessments are undertaken using the easily implemented bathtub approach, where areas adjacent to the sea and below a given elevation are mapped using a deterministic line dividing potentially inundated from dry areas. This method only requires elevation data usually in the form of a digital elevation model (DEM). However, inherent errors in the DEM and spatial analysis of the bathtub model propagate into the inundation mapping. The aim of this study was to assess the impacts of spatially variable and spatially correlated elevation errors in high-spatial resolution DEMs for mapping coastal inundation. Elevation errors were best modelled using regression-kriging. This geostatistical model takes the spatial correlation in elevation errors into account, which has a significant impact on analyses that include spatial interactions, such as inundation modelling. The spatial variability of elevation errors was partially explained by land cover and terrain variables. Elevation errors were simulated using sequential Gaussian simulation, a Monte Carlo probabilistic approach. 1,000 error simulations were added to the original DEM and reclassified using a hydrologically correct bathtub method. The probability of inundation to a scenario combining a 1 in 100 year storm event over a 1 m SLR was calculated by counting the proportion of times from the 1,000 simulations that a location was inundated. This probabilistic approach can be used in a risk-aversive decision making process by planning for scenarios with different probabilities of occurrence. For example, results showed that when considering a 1% probability exceedance, the inundated area was approximately 11% larger than mapped using the deterministic bathtub approach. The probabilistic approach provides visually intuitive maps that convey uncertainties inherent to spatial data and analysis.

Major, trace and rare earth elements and minerals at DSDP Legs 69-70 Holes

We obtained major and trace element data on 113 samples from basalts drilled during DSDP Legs 69 and 70 in the Costa Rica Rift area. The majority have major and trace element characteristics typical of ocean-ridge tholeiities. Most of the basalts are relatively MgO rich (MgO > 8 wt.%) and have Mg values (MgO/MgO + 0.85FeO x 100) of about 53, characteristics that clearly indicate that the various magmas underwent only a small amount of crystal fractionation before being erupted onto the seafloor. According to their normative mineralogies, the rocks are olivine tholeiites. A few samples plot close to the diopside-hypersthene join of the projected basalt tetrahedron. Except for basalts from two thin intervals in Hole 504B, which differ significantly from all the other basalts of the hole, practically no chemical downhole variation could be established. In the two exceptional intervals, both TiO2 and P2O5 contents are markedly enriched among the major oxides. The trace elements in these intervals are distinguished by relatively high contents of magmatophile elements and have flat to enriched chondrite-normalized distribution patterns of light rare earth elements (LREE). Most of the rocks outside these intervals are strongly depleted in large-ionlithophile (LIL) elements and LREE. We offer no satisfactory hypothesis for the origin of these basalts at this time. They might have originated within pockets of mantle materials that were more primitive than the LIL-element-depleted magmas that were the source of the other basalts. A significant change with depth in the type of alteration occurs in the 561 meters of basalt cored in Hole 504B. According to the behavior of such alteration-sensitive species as K2O, H2O-, CO2, S, Tl, and the iron oxidation ratio, the alteration is oxidative in the upper part and nonoxidative or even reducing in the lower part. The oxidative alteration may have resulted from low temperature basalt/seawater interaction, whereas hydrothermal solutions may be responsible for the nonoxidative alteration.