Density-dependent dynamics of a dominant rain forest tree change with juvenile stage and time of masting

Although negative density dependence (NDD) can facilitate tree species coexistence in forests, the underlying mechanisms can differ, and rarely are the dynamics of seedlings and saplings studied together. Herein we present and discuss a novel mechanism based on our investigation of NDD predictions for the large, grove-forming ectomycorrhizal mast fruiting tree, Microberlinia bisulcata (Caesalpiniaceae), in an 82.5-ha plot at Korup, Cameroon. We tested whether juvenile density, size, growth and survival decreases with increasing conspecific adult basal area for 3245 ‘new’ seedlings and 540 ‘old’ seedlings (< 75-cm tall) during an approximately 4-year study period (2008–2012) and for 234 ‘saplings’ (≥ 75-cm tall) during an approximately 6-year study period (2008–2014). We found that the respective densities of new seedlings, old seedlings and saplings were positively, not and negatively related to increasing BA. Maximum leaf numbers and heights of old seedlings were negatively correlated with increasing basal areas, as were sapling heights and stem diameters. Whereas survivorship of new seedlings decreased by more than one-half with increasing basal area over its range in 2010–2012, that of old seedlings decreased by almost two-thirds, but only in 2008–2010, and was generally unrelated to conspecific seedling density. In 2010–2012 relative growth rates in new seedlings’ heights decreased with increasing basal area, as well as with increasing seedling density, together with increasing leaf numbers, whereas old seedlings’ growth was unrelated to either conspecific density or basal area. Saplings of below-average height had reduced survivorship with increasing basal area (probability decreasing from approx. 0.4 to 0.05 over the basal area range tested), but only sapling growth in terms of leaf numbers decreased with increasing basal area. These static and dynamic results indicate that NDD is operating within this system, possibly stabilizing the M. bisulcata population. However, these NDD patterns are unlikely to be caused by symmetric competition or by consumers. Instead, an alternative mechanism for conspecific adult–juvenile negative feedback is proposed, one which involves the interaction between tree phenology and ectomycorrhizal linkages.

Species interactions and random dispersal rather than habitat filtering drive community assembly during early plant succession

Theory on plant succession predicts a temporal increase in the complexity of spatial community structure and of competitive interactions: initially random occurrences of early colonising species shift towards spatially and competitively structured plant associations in later successional stages. Here we use long-term data on early plant succession in a German post mining area to disentangle the importance of random colonisation, habitat filtering, and competition on the temporal and spatial development of plant community structure. We used species co-occurrence analysis and a recently developed method for assessing competitive strength and hierarchies (transitive versus intransitive competitive orders) in multispecies communities. We found that species turnover decreased through time within interaction neighbourhoods, but increased through time outside interaction neighbourhoods. Successional change did not lead to modular community structure. After accounting for species richness effects, the strength of competitive interactions and the proportion of transitive competitive hierarchies increased through time. Although effects of habitat filtering were weak, random colonization and subsequent competitive interactions had strong effects on community structure. Because competitive strength and transitivity were poorly correlated with soil characteristics, there was little evidence for context dependent competitive strength associated with intransitive competitive hierarchies.

Adherence to a lifestyle physical activity program: Trends over time and associations with processes of change and physical activity

Research on lifestyle physical activity interventions suggests that they help individuals meet the new recommendations for physical activity made by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the American College of Sports Medicine (ACSM). The purpose of this research was to describe the rates of adherence to two lifestyle physical activity intervention arms and to examine the association between adherence and outcome variables, using data from Project PRIME, a lifestyle physical activity intervention based on the transtheoretical model and conducted by the Cooper Institute of Aerobics Research, Dallas, Texas. Participants were 250 sedentary healthy adults, aged 35 to 70 years, primarily non-Hispanic White, and in the contemplation and preparation stages of readiness to change. They were randomized to a group (PRIME G) or a mail- and telephone-delivered condition (PRIME C). Adherence measures included attending class (PRIME G), completing a monthly telephone call with a health educator (PRIME C), and completing homework assignments and self-monitoring minutes of moderate- to vigorous physical activity (both groups). In the first results paper, adherence over time and between conditions was examined: Attendance in group, completing the monthly telephone call, and homework completion decreased over time, and participants in PRIME G were more likely to complete homework than those in PRIME C. Paper 2 aimed to determine whether the adherence measures predicted achievement of the CDC/ACSM physical activity guideline. In separate models for the two conditions, a latent variable measuring adherence was found to predict achievement of the guideline. Paper 3 examined the association between adherence measures and the transtheoretical model's processes of change within each condition. For both, participants who completed at least two thirds of the homework assignments improved their use of the processes of change more than those who completed less than that amount. These results suggest that encouraging adherence to a lifestyle physical activity intervention, at least among already motivated volunteers, may increase the likelihood of beneficial changes in the outcomes. ^

If we call them, will they change? Feasibility of a telephone adaptation of motivational interviewing aimed at parents to reduce television time among 2nd and 4th grade children

Television viewing is a sedentary behavior that is modifiable. Reducing media-related behaviors via parent-focused interventions may hold promise for decreasing childhood obesity. This feasibility study examines a novel parent-centered brief telephone-delivered Motivational Enhancement Interview (MEI) to encourage parents of 2nd and 4th graders to set a rules limiting TV time or remove the TV from the child's bedroom. This quasi-experimental sub-study was part of the larger CATCH: En Vivo pilot study conducted in a Hispanic population in the Texas Rio Grande Valley. Parents in the MEI condition were contacted via telephone and encouraged to meet the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) recommended 2 hours per day or less of TV. Unconditional logistic regression was used to analyze the data. At post-test, 85% of parents of 4th graders in the MEI group (compared to 71% at pre-test) reported having a rule limiting TV time. The adjusted odds ratio for the MEI group compared to the control group was 3.88, 95% CI (0.72-20.99). At pre-test, 63.16% of 2nd graders had a television in their bedrooms. The 2nd grade MEI intervention reduced that number to 41.03% (OR=0.25, 95%CI (0.08-0.82)). This first look at using MEI to target parents of children to modify TV behavior presents evidence on a promising strategy for modifying children's home media environment and warrants further investigation. ^

Texas dentists' attitudes and activity level since the change in Medicaid reimbursement rates

Purpose. The purpose of this study was to determine if the change in Medicaid reimbursements in Texas affected the activity level of the enrolled providers or changed the attitudes of dentists towards Medicaid. ^ Methods. A letter with instructions for completing a survey online was sent to a random sample of 415 general and 325 pediatric dentists (500 dentists originally sampled by Blackwelder plus 240 additional dentists). The survey consisted of 27 questions about Medicaid. ^ Results. Surveys from 98 (13.2%) of dentists were collected, with 57 (17.5%) from pediatric dentists and 37(9%) from general dentists. Our results were compared to the study by Blackwelder et al, which reported attitudes of Texas dentists toward the Medicaid program prior to the reimbursement change. Our data indicates an increase in Medicaid activity among enrolled providers (58.6% activity to 94.8% activity) with greater percent change among pediatric dentists (61.8% to 97.5%) compared to general dentists (53.3% to 80%). Also, the proportion of enrolled active Medicaid providers spending greater then 10% of their time with Medicaid has increased (76.9% to 87.3%). Furthermore, pediatric dentists spending greater then 50% of their time with Medicaid increased from 30.9% to 38.5%, and general dentists from 18.4% to 37.5%. Perceived barriers appear to be similar to past studies. ^ Conclusions. Our survey indicated the change in Medicaid reimbursements did increase the activity level of enrolled Medicaid providers and it appears that active Medicaid providers are spending more time with Medicaid patients.^

NONLINEAR TIME SERIES/SYSTEM ANALYSIS (STATE-SPACE, DYNAMICS, INTERVENTION, RESILIENCE, KALMAN)

A discussion of nonlinear dynamics, demonstrated by the familiar automobile, is followed by the development of a systematic method of analysis of a possibly nonlinear time series using difference equations in the general state-space format. This format allows recursive state-dependent parameter estimation after each observation thereby revealing the dynamics inherent in the system in combination with random external perturbations.^ The one-step ahead prediction errors at each time period, transformed to have constant variance, and the estimated parametric sequences provide the information to (1) formally test whether time series observations y(,t) are some linear function of random errors (ELEM)(,s), for some t and s, or whether the series would more appropriately be described by a nonlinear model such as bilinear, exponential, threshold, etc., (2) formally test whether a statistically significant change has occurred in structure/level either historically or as it occurs, (3) forecast nonlinear system with a new and innovative (but very old numerical) technique utilizing rational functions to extrapolate individual parameters as smooth functions of time which are then combined to obtain the forecast of y and (4) suggest a measure of resilience, i.e. how much perturbation a structure/level can tolerate, whether internal or external to the system, and remain statistically unchanged. Although similar to one-step control, this provides a less rigid way to think about changes affecting social systems.^ Applications consisting of the analysis of some familiar and some simulated series demonstrate the procedure. Empirical results suggest that this state-space or modified augmented Kalman filter may provide interesting ways to identify particular kinds of nonlinearities as they occur in structural change via the state trajectory.^ A computational flow-chart detailing computations and software input and output is provided in the body of the text. IBM Advanced BASIC program listings to accomplish most of the analysis are provided in the appendix. ^

Pseudo-random single photon counting for space-borne atmospheric sensing applications

The ability to accurately observe the Earth's carbon cycles from space gives scientists an important tool to analyze climate change. Current space-borne Integrated-Path Differential Absorption (IPDA) Iidar concepts have the potential to meet this need. They are mainly based on the pulsed time-offlight principle, in which two high energy pulses of different wavelengths interrogate the atmosphere for its transmission properties and are backscattered by the ground. In this paper, feasibility study results of a Pseudo-Random Single Photon Counting (PRSPC) IPDA lidar are reported. The proposed approach replaces the high energy pulsed source (e.g. a solidstate laser), with a semiconductor laser in CW operation with a similar average power of a few Watts, benefiting from better efficiency and reliability. The auto-correlation property of Pseudo-Random Binary Sequence (PRBS) and temporal shifting of the codes can be utilized to transmit both wavelengths simultaneously, avoiding the beam misalignment problem experienced by pulsed techniques. The envelope signal to noise ratio has been analyzed, and various system parameters have been selected. By restricting the telescopes field-of-view, the dominant noise source of ambient light can be suppressed, and in addition with a low noise single photon counting detector, a retrieval precision of 1.5 ppm over 50 km along-track averaging could be attained. We also describe preliminary experimental results involving a negative feedback Indium Gallium Arsenide (InGaAs) single photon avalanche photodiode and a low power Distributed Feedback laser diode modulated with PRBS driven acoustic optical modulator. The results demonstrate that higher detector saturation count rates will be needed for use in future spacebourne missions but measurement linearity and precision should meet the stringent requirements set out by future Earthobserving missions.

Random exams using Sweave

The adaptation of the Spanish University to the European Higher Education Area (EEES in Spanish) demands the integration of new tools and skills that would make the teaching- learning process easier. This adaptation involves a change in the evaluation methods, which goes from a system where the student was evaluated with a final exam, to a new system where we include a continuous evaluation in which the final exam may represent at most 50% in the vast majority of the Universities. Devising a new and fair continuous evaluation system is not an easy task to do. That would mean a student’s’ learning process follow-up by the teachers, and as a consequence an additional workload on existing staff resources. Traditionally, the continuous evaluation is associated with the daily work of the student and a collection of the different marks partly or entirely based on the work they do during the academic year. Now, small groups of students and an attendance control are important aspects to take into account in order to get an adequate assessment of the students. However, most of the university degrees have groups with more than 70 students, and the attendance control is a complicated task to perform, mostly because it consumes significant amounts of staff time. Another problem found is that the attendance control would encourage not-interested students to be present at class, which might cause some troubles to their classmates. After a two year experience in the development of a continuous assessment in Statistics subjects in Social Science degrees, we think that individual and periodical tasks are the best way to assess results. These tasks or examinations must be done in classroom during regular lessons, so we need an efficient system to put together different and personal questions in order to prevent students from cheating. In this paper we provide an efficient and effective way to elaborate random examination papers by using Sweave, a tool that generates data, graphics and statistical calculus from the software R and shows results in PDF documents created by Latex. In this way, we will be able to design an exam template which could be compiled in order to generate as many PDF documents as it is required, and at the same time, solutions are provided to easily correct them.

Financial risks and opportunities in the time of climate change. Bruegel Policy Brief ISSUE 2016/02 APRIL 2016

Real economic imbalances can lead to financial crisis. The current unsustainable use of our environment is such an imbalance. Financial shocks can be triggered by either intensified environmental policies, cleantech breakthroughs (both resulting in the stranding of unsustainable assets), or the economic costs of crossing ecological boundaries (eg floods and droughts due to climate change). Financial supervisors and risk managers have so far paid little attention to this ecological dimension, allowing systemic financial imbalances resulting from ecological pressures to build up. Inattention also leads to missed economic and financial opportunities from the sustainability transition.

Time for a change : remaking the nation's welfare system : report of the Welfare Simplification and Coordination Advisory Committee.

"June 1993."

Regulation of cancer-causing food additives, time for a change? : report to the Congress /

"B-20531."--Prelim. p.