Estimating overidentified, nonrecursive, time-varying coefficients structural VARs

This paper provides a method to estimate time varying coefficients structuralVARs which are non-recursive and potentially overidentified. The procedureallows for linear and non-linear restrictions on the parameters, maintainsthe multi-move structure of standard algorithms and can be used toestimate structural models with different identification restrictions. We studythe transmission of monetary policy shocks and compare the results with thoseobtained with traditional methods.

A unifying approach to the empirical evaluation of asset pricing models

Two main approaches are commonly used to empirically evaluate linear factor pricingmodels: regression and SDF methods, with centred and uncentred versions of the latter.We show that unlike standard two-step or iterated GMM procedures, single-step estimatorssuch as continuously updated GMM yield numerically identical values for prices of risk,pricing errors, Jensen s alphas and overidentifying restrictions tests irrespective of the modelvalidity. Therefore, there is arguably a single approach regardless of the factors being tradedor not, or the use of excess or gross returns. We illustrate our results by revisiting Lustigand Verdelhan s (2007) empirical analysis of currency returns.

Similarities and convergence in G-7 cycles

This paper examines the properties of G-7 cycles using a multicountry Bayesian panelVAR model with time variations, unit specific dynamics and cross country interdependences.We demonstrate the presence of a significant world cycle and show that country specificindicators play a much smaller role. We detect differences across business cycle phasesbut, apart from an increase in synchronicity in the late 1990s, find little evidence of major structural changes. We also find no evidence of the existence of an Euro area specific cycle or of its emergence in the 1990s.

How much structure in empirical models?

This chapter highlights the problems that structural methods and SVAR approaches have when estimating DSGE models and examining their ability to capture important features of the data. We show that structural methods are subject to severe identification problems due, in large part, to the nature of DSGE models. The problems can be patched up in a number of ways but solved only if DSGEs are completely reparametrized or respecified. The potential misspecification of the structural relationships give Bayesian methods an hedge over classical ones in structural estimation. SVAR approaches may face invertibility problems but simple diagnostics can help to detect and remedy these problems. A pragmatic empirical approach ought to use the flexibility of SVARs against potential misspecificationof the structural relationships but must firmly tie SVARs to the class of DSGE models which could have have generated the data.

ClubMed? Cyclical fluctuations in the Mediterranean basin

We investigate macroeconomic fluctuations in the Mediterranean basin, their similarities and convergence. A model with four indicators, roughly covering theWest, the East and the Middle East and the North Africa portions of theMediterranean, characterizes well the historical experience since the early 1980.Idiosyncratic causes still dominate domestic cyclical fluctuations in many countries. Convergence and divergence coexist are local and transitory. The cyclicaloutlook for the next few years is rosier for the East than for the West.

What explains the Great Moderation in the US? A structural analysis

This paper investigates what has caused output and inflation volatility to fall in the USusing a small scale structural model using Bayesian techniques and rolling samples. Thereare instabilities in the posterior of the parameters describing the private sector, the policyrule and the standard deviation of the shocks. Results are robust to the specification ofthe policy rule. Changes in the parameters describing the private sector are the largest,but those of the policy rule and the covariance matrix of the shocks explain the changes most.

Price differentials in monetary unions: The role of fiscal shocks

We study the effect of regional expenditure and revenue shocks on price differentials for47 US states and 9 EU countries. We identify shocks using sign restrictions on the dynamicsof deficits and output and construct two estimates for structural price differentials dynamics which optimally weight the information contained in the data for all units. Fiscal shocks explain between 14 and 23 percent of the variability of price differentials both in the US and in the EU. On average, expansionary fiscal disturbances produce positive price differential responses while distortionary balance budget shocks produce negative price differential responses. In a number of units, price differential responses to expansionary fiscal shocks are negative. Spillovers and labor supply effects partially explain this pattern while geographical, political, and economic indicators do not.

Appropriateness of therapy for fistulizing Crohn's disease: findings from a national inflammatory bowel disease cohort.

BACKGROUND: About 30-50% of patients with Crohn's disease (CD) develop fistulae, implying significant disease burden and complicated clinical management. AIM: To assess appropriate use of therapy for fistulizing CD patients enrolled in the Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Disease Cohort using criteria developed by the European Panel on the Appropriateness of Crohn's disease Therapy. METHODS: Specific questionnaires were used to gather information on disease and its management. We assessed appropriateness of therapy at enrolment for adult CD patients with one or several fistulae. RESULTS: Two hundred and eighty-eight CD patients had fistulizing disease, of which 80% had complex fistulae and 32% currently had active draining fistulae. Mean age (s.d.) at diagnosis was 27 years (11), 51% males. Of the patients, 78% were judged as having globally an appropriate therapy, which was more often given for complex fistulae (87%) than for simple fistulae (67%). Antibiotics, azathioprine/MP, methotrexate and conservative surgery were almost always appropriate. Anti-tumor necrosis factor α was considered globally appropriate (91%), although most often with an uncertain indication. The 5ASA compounds, steroids and aggressive surgery were most often inappropriate (84%, 58% and 86% respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Formal appropriateness criteria for CD therapy were applied to a national cohort of IBD patients. For more than three-quarters of the patients with fistulizing CD, therapy was globally appropriate.

Predicting potential distribution of the jaguar (Panthera onca) in Mexico: identification of priority areas for conservation

Aim The jaguar, Panthera onca, is a species of global conservation concern. In Mexico, the northernmost part of its distribution range, its conservation status, is particularly critical, while its potential and actual distribution is poorly known. We propose an ensemble model (EM) of the potential distribution for the jaguar in Mexico and identify the priority areas for conservation.Location Mexico.Methods We generated our EM based on three presence-only methods (Ecological Niche Factor Analysis, Mahalanobis distance, Maxent) and considering environmental, biological and anthropogenic factors. We used this model to evaluate the efficacy of the existing Mexican protected areas (PAs), to evaluate the adequacy of the jaguar conservation units (JCUs) and to propose new areas that should be considered for conservation and management of the species in Mexico.Results Our results outline that 16% of Mexico (c. 312,000 km2) can be considered as suitable for the presence of the jaguar. Furthermore, 13% of the suitable areas are included in existing PAs and 14% are included in JCUs (Sanderson et al., 2002).Main conclusions Clearly much more should be carried out to establish a proactive conservation strategy. Based on our results, we propose here new jaguar conservation and management areas that are important for a nationwide conservation blueprint.

In vitro characterization of immune-related properties of human fetal bone cells for potential tissue engineering applications.

We describe herein some immunological properties of human fetal bone cells recently tested for bone tissue-engineering applications. Adult mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) and osteoblasts were included in the study for comparison. Surface markers involved in bone metabolism and immune recognition were analyzed using flow cytometry before and after differentiation or treatment with cytokines. Immunomodulatory properties were studied on activated peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs). The immuno-profile of fetal bone cells was further investigated at the gene expression level. Fetal bone cells and adult MSCs were positive for Stro-1, alkaline phosphatase, CD10, CD44, CD54, and beta2-microglobulin, but human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-I and CD80 were less present than on adult osteoblasts. All cells were negative for HLA-II. Treatment with recombinant human interferon gamma increased the presence of HLA-I in adult cells much more than in fetal cells. In the presence of activated PBMCs, fetal cells had antiproliferative effects, although with patterns not always comparable with those of adult MSCs and osteoblasts. Because of the immunological profile, and with their more-differentiated phenotype than of stem cells, fetal bone cells present an interesting potential for allogeneic cell source in tissue-engineering applications.

Reseptilääkkeiden lanseerausprosessi. Case: Ormox & Origlucon

Lääketeollisuuden tuotelanseerausten riskit ovat huomattavan suuria. Lääkkeiden tuotekehitysprojektien pitkä kesto ja valtaisat kustannukset ajavat yrityksen vaikeaan tilanteeseen. Lääkkeiden markkinoille tuonnin eli lanseerauksen on onnistuttava, jotta tuotekehityksen kustannukset voidaan kattaa. Tämän takia lääkkeiden lanseerauksen kehittäminen on yrityksille erittäin tärkeää. Lanseerauksen kehittäminen on samalla tutkimuksen pääongelma. Tutkielma keskittyy erityisesti suomalaisten reseptilääkkeiden lanseerausprosessin läpikäymiseen. Tutkielma jakautuu kahteen osaan: ensimmäinen osa käsittelee lanseerausta käsitteenä, lääkemarkkinoinnin erityispiirteitä sekä lanseerausprosessin teoriaa lääkeyhtiöiden näkökulmasta. Tutkielman toinen eli empiirinen osio, käsittelee Orion Pharman läpikäymää Ormox & Origlucon lanseerausta ja sen toteutusta. Erityisesti pyrittiin tunnistamaan, mitkä olivat keskeisimmät menestystekijät kyseisessä lanseerauksessa ja kuinka sitä voitaisiin kehittää. Ensimmäisenä menestystekijänä kyseisessä tutkimuksessa voidaan pitää hyvää markkinatuntemusta, jonka organisaatio oli koonnut toimiessaan aiempien lääkkeiden parissa. Toinen merkittävä menestystekijä on voimakas panostus, aina johdon tasolta asti, kyseiseen projektiin. Kolmantena tärkeänä menestystekijänä voidaan pitää tarvelähtöisyyttä, jonka avulla voitiin muotoilla asiakkaiden hyväksymä ja ymmärtämä markkinointiviesti. Keskeisimmiksi kehittämisen kohteiksi osoittautuivat sisäinen markkinointi, myyntitoiminnan organisointi sekä työn suunnittelun jatkuvuus.

L'année 2014 mise en perspective par les internistes hospitaliers [What is new in 2014 for the specialist in hospital internal medicine? The point of view of university hospital chief residents].

The year 2014 was rich in significant advances in all areas of internal medicine. Many of them have an impact on our daily practice and on the way we manage one problem or another. From the use of the ultrasound for the diagnosis of pneumonia to the choice of the site of venous access and the type of line, and the increasing complexity of choosing an oral anticoagulant agent, this selection offers to the readers a brief overview of the major advances. The chief residents in the Service of internal medicine of the Lausanne University hospital are pleased to share their readings.

Analysis of Satellite Data for Forest Segmentation

In this work we study the classification of forest types using mathematics based image analysis on satellite data. We are interested in improving classification of forest segments when a combination of information from two or more different satellites is used. The experimental part is based on real satellite data originating from Canada. This thesis gives summary of the mathematics basics of the image analysis and supervised learning , methods that are used in the classification algorithm. Three data sets and four feature sets were investigated in this thesis. The considered feature sets were 1) histograms (quantiles) 2) variance 3) skewness and 4) kurtosis. Good overall performances were achieved when a combination of ASTERBAND and RADARSAT2 data sets was used.

Turvallisuusanalyysi: Kullan uuttaminen syanidilla

Tässä kandityössä on tehty turvallisuusanalyysi kullan uuttamiselle syanidilla. Kullan uuttaminen on tehty MacArthur-Forrest-prosessilla laboratoriomittakaavassa. Myös syanidoinnin historiaa, eri syanidointimenetelmiä ja turvallisuusanalyysejä on käyty lyhyesti läpi tämän kandityön alussa.