Political Competition in Hard Times

This paper analyzes a spatial model of political competition between two policy- motivated parties in hard times of crisis. Hard times are modeled in terms of policy- making costs carried by a newly elected party. The results predict policy divergence in equilibrium. If the ideological preferences of parties are quite diverse and extreme, there is a unique equilibrium in which the parties announce symmetric platforms and each party wins with probability one half. If one party is extreme while the other is more moderate, there is a unique equilibrium in which the parties announce asymmetric platforms. If the preferred policies of the parties are not very distinct, there are two equilibria with asymmetric platforms. An important property of equilibrium with asymmetric platforms is that a winning party necessarily announces its most preferred policy as a platform. JEL classification: D72. Keywords: Spatial model; Political competition; Two-party system; Policy-motivated parties; Hard times; Crisis.

Essays in higher moment asset pricing and liquidity risk

This thesis focuses on theoretical asset pricing models and their empirical applications. I aim to investigate the following noteworthy problems: i) if the relationship between asset prices and investors' propensities to gamble and to fear disaster is time varying, ii) if the conflicting evidence for the firm and market level skewness can be explained by downside risk, Hi) if costly learning drives liquidity risk. Moreover, empirical tests support the above assumptions and provide novel findings in asset pricing, investment decisions, and firms' funding liquidity. The first chapter considers a partial equilibrium model where investors have heterogeneous propensities to gamble and fear disaster. Skewness preference represents the desire to gamble, while kurtosis aversion represents fear of extreme returns. Using US data from 1988 to 2012, my model demonstrates that in bad times, risk aversion is higher, more people fear disaster, and fewer people gamble, in contrast to good times. This leads to a new empirical finding: gambling preference has a greater impact on asset prices during market downturns than during booms. The second chapter consists of two essays. The first essay introduces a foramula based on conditional CAPM for decomposing the market skewness. We find that the major market upward and downward movements can be well preadicted by the asymmetric comovement of betas, which is characterized by an indicator called "Systematic Downside Risk" (SDR). We find that SDR can efafectively forecast future stock market movements and we obtain out-of-sample R-squares (compared with a strategy using historical mean) of more than 2.27% with monthly data. The second essay reconciles a well-known empirical fact: aggregating positively skewed firm returns leads to negatively skewed market return. We reconcile this fact through firms' greater response to negative maraket news than positive market news. We also propose several market return predictors, such as downside idiosyncratic skewness. The third chapter studies the funding liquidity risk based on a general equialibrium model which features two agents: one entrepreneur and one external investor. Only the investor needs to acquire information to estimate the unobservable fundamentals driving the economic outputs. The novelty is that information acquisition is more costly in bad times than in good times, i.e. counter-cyclical information cost, as supported by previous empirical evidence. Later we show that liquidity risks are principally driven by costly learning. Résumé Cette thèse présente des modèles théoriques dévaluation des actifs et leurs applications empiriques. Mon objectif est d'étudier les problèmes suivants: la relation entre l'évaluation des actifs et les tendances des investisseurs à parier et à crainadre le désastre varie selon le temps ; les indications contraires pour l'entreprise et l'asymétrie des niveaux de marché peuvent être expliquées par les risques de perte en cas de baisse; l'apprentissage coûteux augmente le risque de liquidité. En outre, des tests empiriques confirment les suppositions ci-dessus et fournissent de nouvelles découvertes en ce qui concerne l'évaluation des actifs, les décisions relatives aux investissements et la liquidité de financement des entreprises. Le premier chapitre examine un modèle d'équilibre où les investisseurs ont des tendances hétérogènes à parier et à craindre le désastre. La préférence asymétrique représente le désir de parier, alors que le kurtosis d'aversion représente la crainte du désastre. En utilisant les données des Etats-Unis de 1988 à 2012, mon modèle démontre que dans les mauvaises périodes, l'aversion du risque est plus grande, plus de gens craignent le désastre et moins de gens parient, conatrairement aux bonnes périodes. Ceci mène à une nouvelle découverte empirique: la préférence relative au pari a un plus grand impact sur les évaluations des actifs durant les ralentissements de marché que durant les booms économiques. Exploitant uniquement cette relation générera un revenu excédentaire annuel de 7,74% qui n'est pas expliqué par les modèles factoriels populaires. Le second chapitre comprend deux essais. Le premier essai introduit une foramule base sur le CAPM conditionnel pour décomposer l'asymétrie du marché. Nous avons découvert que les mouvements de hausses et de baisses majeures du marché peuvent être prédits par les mouvements communs des bêtas. Un inadicateur appelé Systematic Downside Risk, SDR (risque de ralentissement systématique) est créé pour caractériser cette asymétrie dans les mouvements communs des bêtas. Nous avons découvert que le risque de ralentissement systématique peut prévoir les prochains mouvements des marchés boursiers de manière efficace, et nous obtenons des carrés R hors échantillon (comparés avec une stratégie utilisant des moyens historiques) de plus de 2,272% avec des données mensuelles. Un investisseur qui évalue le marché en utilisant le risque de ralentissement systématique aurait obtenu une forte hausse du ratio de 0,206. Le second essai fait cadrer un fait empirique bien connu dans l'asymétrie des niveaux de march et d'entreprise, le total des revenus des entreprises positiveament asymétriques conduit à un revenu de marché négativement asymétrique. Nous décomposons l'asymétrie des revenus du marché au niveau de l'entreprise et faisons cadrer ce fait par une plus grande réaction des entreprises aux nouvelles négatives du marché qu'aux nouvelles positives du marché. Cette décomposition révélé plusieurs variables de revenus de marché efficaces tels que l'asymétrie caractéristique pondérée par la volatilité ainsi que l'asymétrie caractéristique de ralentissement. Le troisième chapitre fournit une nouvelle base théorique pour les problèmes de liquidité qui varient selon le temps au sein d'un environnement de marché incomplet. Nous proposons un modèle d'équilibre général avec deux agents: un entrepreneur et un investisseur externe. Seul l'investisseur a besoin de connaitre le véritable état de l'entreprise, par conséquent, les informations de paiement coutent de l'argent. La nouveauté est que l'acquisition de l'information coute plus cher durant les mauvaises périodes que durant les bonnes périodes, comme cela a été confirmé par de précédentes expériences. Lorsque la récession comamence, l'apprentissage coûteux fait augmenter les primes de liquidité causant un problème d'évaporation de liquidité, comme cela a été aussi confirmé par de précédentes expériences.

Elderly Return Migration from Britain to Ireland - A Preliminary Study

The National Council for the Elderly commissioned the Institute of Irish Studies at the University of Liverpool, in 1994, to undertake research and prepare a preliminary report for the Council, exploring the recent scale of, and background to, return migration to the Republic of Ireland amongst elderly Irish-born people living in Britain Download the Report here

Statistical tests for scaling in the inter-event times of earthquakes in California

We explore in depth the validity of a recently proposed scaling law for earthquake inter-event time distributions in the case of the Southern California, using the waveform cross-correlation catalog of Shearer et al. Two statistical tests are used: on the one hand, the standard two-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov test is in agreement with the scaling of the distributions. On the other hand, the one-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic complemented with Monte Carlo simulation of the inter-event times, as done by Clauset et al., supports the validity of the gamma distribution as a simple model of the scaling function appearing on the scaling law, for rescaled inter-event times above 0.01, except for the largest data set (magnitude greater than 2). A discussion of these results is provided.

Feeding, defecation, and development times of Meccus longipennis Usinger, 1939 (Hemiptera: Reduviidae: Triatominae) under laboratory conditions

Aspects related to hatching, time-lapse between presenting the blood-meal and beginning of feeding, feeding time, postfeed defecation delay, mortality, and fecundity for each stage of Meccus longipennis life-cycle were evaluated. The bugs were maintained in a dark incubator at 27 ± 1ºC and 80 ± 5% rh, were fed weekly and checked daily for ecdysis or death. The hatching rate observed for 300 eggs was 76.7% and the average time of hatching was 19.8 days. Mean time-lapse between presentation of the blood meal and the beginning of feeding was under 5 min in nymphal stages and postfeed defecation delay was under 10 min in most stages, except in fourth and fifth stages. Mean feeding time was longer than 10 min in most stages, except in fourth stage. One hundred thirty-one nymphs (N) (65.5%) completed the cycle and the average time from NI to adult was 192.6 ± 34.8 days. The average span in days for each stage was 18.1 for NI, 21.4 for NII, 29.5 for NIII, 45.5 for NIV and 55.9 for NV. The number of bloodmeals at each nymphal stage varied from 1 to 5. The mortality rate was 3.29 for NI, 6.8 for NII, 2.92 for NIII 3.76 for NIV, and 10.16 for NV nymphs. The average number of eggs laid per female in a 9-month period was 615.6. Based on our results, we conclude that M. longipennis has some biological and behavioral characteristics which influence its capacity of becoming infected and transmitting Trypanosoma cruzi to human populations in those areas of Mexico where it is currently present.

Molecular paleoparasitological diagnosis of Ascaris sp. from coprolites: new scenery of ascariasis in pre-Colombian South America times

Paleoparasitological studies using microscopy showed that Ascarisand Trichuris trichiura are the human intestinal parasites most found in archaeological sites. However, in pre-Columbian South American archaeological sites, Ascaris is rare. In this work we standardized a molecular methodology for Ascaris diagnosis directly from ancient DNA retrieved from coprolites. Using cythochrome b gene (142 bp) target, ancient DNA sequences were retrieved from South American samples, negative by microscopy. Moreover, the methodology applied was sensitive enough to detect ancient DNA extracted from 30 Ascaris eggs from an European coprolite. These results revealed a new scenery for the paleodistribution of Ascaris in South America.

A Note on improving Contact Times in Panel Surveys

With increasing costs for conducting surveys, many survey agencies resort to implementing call strategies. Obtaining contact in panel surveys as early as possible, without annoying people by contacting them at undesired times and ultimately causing them to refuse, requires using efficient call time strategies. In this research, the author uses call data from the Swiss Household Panel (SHP), a centralized Computer Assisted Telephone Interview (CATI) survey with a randomized (experimental) call-household assignment. Using random effects models, the author analyzes the efficiency gains of obtaining initial contact by assigning optimal times to first calls, and times and spacing to second and later calls depending on household sociodemography and prior call patterns. The author concludes with some recommendations for making early and successful contact during fieldwork.

How to confirm C.E.R.A. doping in athletes' blood?

C.E.R.A. (Continuous Erythropoietin Receptor Activator) is a new third-generation erythropoiesis-stimulating agent that has recently been linked with abuse in endurance sports. The anti-doping community rapidly reacted by releasing a high-throughput screening ELISA allowing the detection of C.E.R.A. doping in athletes' blood. In order to return adverse analytical findings, anti-doping laboratories, however, need, as far as possible, to confirm the presence of the drug in athletes' samples through orthogonal methods. This article focuses on the comparison of 2 proposed confirmation assays based on gel electrophoresis that were coupled with a new sample immunopurification method. IEF, the classical method used to target erythropoietin (EPO) and its recombinant analogues in athletes' samples, and SARKOSYL-PAGE were applied to the plasma samples of subjects having received a single injection of C.E.R.A. It was demonstrated that SARKOSYL-PAGE was at least 6 times more sensitive than IEF, with comparable specificity. A longer detection window coupled with easier interpretation criteria led us to recommend the use of SARKOSYL-PAGE to confirm C.E.R.A. presence in athletes' blood.

The Times They Are a-Changin': Carbapenems for Extended-Spectrum-β-Lactamase-Producing Bacteria.

Several antimicrobial agents are being investigated as alternatives to carbapenems in the treatment of infections caused by ESBL-producing Enterobacteriaceae, which may be useful in avoiding overuse of carbapenems in the context of recent global spread of carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae. The most promising candidates for invasive infections so far are β-lactam/β-lactamase inhibitor combinations and cephamycins.

The effect of recalled previous work environment on return to work after a rehabilitation program including vocational aspects for trauma patients.

INTRODUCTION: The aim of the present study was to assess the association between remembered previous work place environment and return to work (RTW) after hospitalisation in a rehabilitation hospital. METHODS: A cohort of 291 orthopedic trauma patients discharged from hospital between 15 December 2004 and 31 December 2005 was included in a study addressing quality of life and work-related questions. Remembered previous work environment was measured by Karasek's 31-item Job Content Questionnaire (JCQ), given to the patients during hospitalisation. Post-hospitalisation work status was assessed 3 months, 1, and 2 years after discharge, using a questionnaire sent to the ex-patients. Logistic regression models were used to test the role of four JCQ variables on RTW at each time point while controlling for relevant confounders. RESULTS: Subjects perceiving a higher physical demand were less likely to return to work 1 year after hospital discharge. Social support at work was positively associated with RTW at all time points. A high job strain appeared to be positively associated with RTW 1 year after rehabilitation, with limitations due to large confidence intervals. CONCLUSIONS: Perceptions of previous work environment may influence the probability of RTW. In a rehabilitation setting, efforts should be made to assess those perceptions and, if needed, interventions to modify them should be applied.

Litterfall and mineral return in two cork-oak forests in northeast spain

Seasonal trends in littertall and potential mineral return were studied in two cork-oak forest sites in the northeastern Iberian peninsula. The estimated average litter production was 3.9.M- gy.e1ahar for one site and 4.6 .M- gy.e1ahar for the other; these figures are similar to those reported for holm-oak (Quercus ilex) forests in the same area. Seasonal litterfall patterns were typical of Mediterranean forest ecosystems. Leaves accounted for 46 to 78% of the total dry matter. Their annual weighted-average mineral composition was low in macronutrients (N 8-9; K 4-5; Mg 0.8-1.3; Ca 9-10 and P 0.4-1 m-)g.1g and relatively high in micronutrients such as Mn (2-2.2 m-)g.1g or Fe (0.3-0.4 m)-g..1g Minimum N and P concentrations were found during the growth period. Estimates of potential mineral return for an annual cycle were N 38-52, P 2.1-5.2, K 20-28, Ca 44-53 and Mg 5.4-5.0 k-,g.1ha depending on the site biomass and fertility

Hypoglycémie et traitement du diabète de type 2. Le retour à une normoglycémie n'est pas nécessairement la meilleure stratégie thérapeutique [Hypoglycemia and diabetes treatment: the return to normal glucose level is not always the best therapeutic strategy].

Recent clinical trials with type 2 diabetic patients and the quest of normal glyceamic values, have revealed difficulties and limitations. These too normal glyceamic targets corresponding to the physiological standards are associated with very high rate of hypoglycemia and an increase of mortality. A too simplistic view of treatment: "the lowest, the better is in the diabetes" is no longer defensible. The knowledge from complex systems behavior invites us to search targets adapted to a new state of equilibrium due to loss of self-regulation. These targets should not aim the physiological standards but to be adapted to patient's situation. Shared decision-making and consensus are the two pillars of this new strategy supported by the new ADA-EASD guidelines.