Mathematical modelling of patient risks in a hospital environment, using multiple regression analysis

The aim of this research work was primarily to examine the relevance of patient parameters, ward structures, procedures and practices, in respect of the potential hazards of wound cross-infection and nasal colonisation with multiple resistant strains of Staphylococcus aureus, which it is thought might provide a useful indication of a patient's general susceptibility to wound infection. Information from a large cross-sectional survey involving 12,000 patients from some 41 hospitals and 375 wards was collected over a five-year period from 1967-72, and its validity checked before any subsequent analysis was carried out. Many environmental factors and procedures which had previously been thought (but never conclusively proved) to have an influence on wound infection or nasal colonisation rates, were assessed, and subsequently dismissed as not being significant, provided that the standard of the current range of practices and procedures is maintained and not allowed to deteriorate. Retrospective analysis revealed that the probability of wound infection was influenced by the patient's age, duration of pre-operative hospitalisation, sex, type of wound, presence and type of drain, number of patients in ward, and other special risk factors, whilst nasal colonisation was found to be influenced by the patient's age, total duration of hospitalisation, sex, antibiotics, proportion of occupied beds in the ward, average distance between bed centres and special risk factors. A multi-variate regression analysis technique was used to develop statistical models, consisting of variable patient and environmental factors which were found to have a significant influence on the risks pertaining to wound infection and nasal colonisation. A relationship between wound infection and nasal colonisation was then established and this led to the development of a more advanced model for predicting wound infections, taking advantage of the additional knowledge of the patient's state of nasal colonisation prior to operation.

Cytokine analysis in Atlantic bottlenose dolphins: Molecular characterization of IL-4, IL-6, and IL-10

The health status of wild and captive Atlantic Bottlenose dolphins ( Tersiops truncatis) is difficult to ascertain. Mass strandings of these animals have been attributed to pollutants, as well as bacterial infections. Using human Enzyme Linked Immuno-Assays (ELISA) for immunological cytokines, I measured soluble cytokine levels with respect to their health status. In a retrospective analysis of dolphin sera, there was a trend of higher cytokine levels in “sick” animals. I cultured dolphin lymphocytes in the presence of a mitogen (PHA), a super antigen (Staph-A), Lipopolysaccharide (LPS), and a calcium flux inducer (PMA). Levels of messenger RNA, from these cultured cells, were assayed with Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) using primers for the human cytokines IL-2, IL-4, IL-6, IL-10, Tumor Necrosis Factor, and Interferon gamma. Only IL-4, IL-6, and IL-10 messages were obtained, inferring similar nucleotide homology to the human primer sequences. The PCR products were sequenced. Sixteen IL-4 sequences, twelve IL-6 sequences and seven IL-10 sequences were obtained and analyzed. Each cytokine exhibited the same nucleotide sequence in all dolphins examined. There was no difference in the cytokine profile in response to the various stimuli. The derived amino acid composition for each of the dolphin cytokines was used for molecular modeling, which showed that dolphin IL-4, IL-6, and IL-10 were structurally similar to the corresponding proteins of Perissodactyla. ^

A retrospective study examining the nature, contributory factors and predictors of dispensing errors in community pharmacy

Introduction: Since 2005, the workload of community pharmacists in England has increased with a concomitant increase in stress and work pressure. However, it is unclear how these factors are impacting on the ability of community pharmacists to ensure accuracy during the dispensing process. This research seeks to extend our understanding of the nature, outcome, and predictors of dispensing errors. Methodology: A retrospective analysis of a purposive sample of incident report forms (IRFs) from the database of a pharmacist indemnity insurance provider was conducted. Data collected included; type of error, degree of harm caused, pharmacy and pharmacist demographics, and possible contributory factors. Results: In total, 339 files from UK community pharmacies were retrieved from the database. The files dated from June 2006 to November 2011. Incorrect item (45.1%, n = 153/339) followed by incorrect strength (24.5%, n = 83/339) were the most common forms of error. Almost half (41.6%, n = 147/339) of the patients suffered some form of harm ranging from minor harm (26.7%, n = 87/339) to death (0.3%, n = 1/339). Insufficient staff (51.6%, n = 175/339), similar packaging (40.7%, n = 138/339) and the pharmacy being busier than normal (39.5%, n = 134/339) were identified as key contributory factors. Cross-tabular analysis against the final accuracy check variable revealed significant association between the pharmacy location (P < 0.024), dispensary layout (P < 0.025), insufficient staff (P < 0.019), and busier than normal (P < 0.005) variables. Conclusion: The results provide an overview of some of the individual, organisational and technical factors at play at the time of a dispensing error and highlight the need to examine further the relationships between these factors and dispensing error occurrence.

Urinary Tract Infection In Renal Transplant Recipients: Incidence, Risk Factors, And Impact On Graft Function.

Urinary tract infection (UTI) is the most common infection posttransplant. However, the risk factors for and the impact of UTIs remain controversial. The aim of this study was to identify the incidence of posttransplant UTIs in a series of renal transplant recipients from deceased donors. Secondary objectives were to identify: (1) the most frequent infectious agents; (2) risk factors related to donor; (3) risk factors related to recipients; and (4) impact of UTI on graft function. This was a retrospective analysis of medical records from renal transplant patients from January to December 2010. Local ethics committee approved the protocol. The incidence of UTI in this series was 34.2%. Risk factors for UTI were older age, (independent of gender), biopsy-proven acute rejection episodes, and kidneys from deceased donors (United Network for Organ Sharing criteria). For female patients, the number of pretransplant pregnancies was an additional risk factor. Recurrent UTI was observed in 44% of patients from the UTI group. The most common infectious agents were Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae, for both isolated and recurrent UTI. No difference in renal graft function or immunosuppressive therapy was observed between groups after the 1-year follow-up. In this series, older age, previous pregnancy, kidneys from expanded criteria donors, and biopsy-proven acute rejection episodes were risk factors for posttransplant UTI. Recurrence of UTI was observed in 44%, with no negative impact on graft function or survival.

Variant Rh Alleles And Rh Immunisation In Patients With Sickle Cell Disease.

Alloimmunisation is a major complication in patients with sickle cell disease (SCD) receiving red blood cell (RBC) transfusions and despite provision of Rh phenotyped RBC units, Rh antibodies still occur. These antibodies in patients positive for the corresponding Rh antigen are considered autoantibodies in many cases but variant RH alleles found in SCD patients can also contribute to Rh alloimmunisation. In this study, we characterised variant RH alleles in 31 SCD patients who made antibodies to Rh antigens despite antigen-positive status and evaluated the clinical significance of the antibodies produced. RHD and RHCE BeadChip™ from BioArray Solutions and/or amplification and sequencing of exons were used to identify the RH variants. The serological features of all Rh antibodies in antigen-positive patients were analysed and the clinical significance of the antibodies was evaluated by retrospective analysis of the haemoglobin (Hb) levels before and after transfusion; the change from baseline pre-transfusion Hb and the percentage of HbS were also determined. We identified variant RH alleles in 31/48 (65%) of SCD patients with Rh antibodies. Molecular analyses revealed the presence of partial RHD alleles and variant RHCE alleles associated with altered C and e antigens. Five patients were compound heterozygotes for RHD and RHCE variants. Retrospective analysis showed that 42% of antibodies produced by the patients with RH variants were involved in delayed haemolytic transfusion reactions or decreased survival of transfused RBC. In this study, we found that Rh antibodies in SCD patients with RH variants can be clinically significant and, therefore, matching patients based on RH variants should be considered.

Aplicação do escore MELD em pacientes submetidos a transplante de fígado: análise retrospectiva da sobrevida e dos fatores preditivos a curto e longo prazo

BACKGROUND: The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) was developed to predict short-term mortality in patients with cirrhosis. There are few reports studying the correlation between MELD and long-term posttransplantation survival. AIM: To assess the value of pretransplant MELD in the prediction of posttransplant survival. METHODS: The adult patients (age >18 years) who underwent liver transplantation were examined in a retrospective longitudinal cohort of patients, through the prospective data base. We excluded acute liver failure, retransplantation and reduced or split-livers. The liver donors were evaluated according to: age, sex, weight, creatinine, bilirubin, sodium, aspartate aminotransferase, personal antecedents, brain death cause, steatosis, expanded criteria donor number and index donor risk. The recipients' data were: sex, age, weight, chronic hepatic disease, Child-Turcotte-Pugh points, pretransplant and initial MELD score, pretransplant creatinine clearance, sodium, cold and warm ischemia times, hospital length of stay, blood requirements, and alanine aminotransferase (ALT >1,000 UI/L = liver dysfunction). The Kaplan-Meier method with the log-rank test was used for the univariable analyses of posttransplant patient survival. For the multivariable analyses the Cox proportional hazard regression method with the stepwise procedure was used with stratifying sodium and MELD as variables. ROC curve was used to define area under the curve for MELD and Child-Turcotte-Pugh. RESULTS: A total of 232 patients with 10 years follow up were available. The MELD cutoff was 20 and Child-Turcotte-Pugh cutoff was 11.5. For MELD score > 20, the risk factors for death were: red cell requirements, liver dysfunction and donor's sodium. For the patients with hyponatremia the risk factors were: negative delta-MELD score, red cell requirements, liver dysfunction and donor's sodium. The regression univariated analyses came up with the following risk factors for death: score MELD > 25, blood requirements, recipient creatinine clearance pretransplant and age donor >50. After stepwise analyses, only red cell requirement was predictive. Patients with MELD score < 25 had a 68.86%, 50,44% and 41,50% chance for 1, 5 and 10-year survival and > 25 were 39.13%, 29.81% and 22.36% respectively. Patients without hyponatremia were 65.16%, 50.28% and 41,98% and with hyponatremia 44.44%, 34.28% and 28.57% respectively. Patients with IDR > 1.7 showed 53.7%, 27.71% and 13.85% and index donor risk <1.7 was 63.62%, 51.4% and 44.08%, respectively. Age donor > 50 years showed 38.4%, 26.21% and 13.1% and age donor <50 years showed 65.58%, 26.21% and 13.1%. Association with delta-MELD score did not show any significant difference. Expanded criteria donors were associated with primary non-function and severe liver dysfunction. Predictive factors for death were blood requirements, hyponatremia, liver dysfunction and donor's sodium. CONCLUSION: In conclusion MELD over 25, recipient's hyponatremia, blood requirements, donor's sodium were associated with poor survival.

Avaliação da prevalência do diabetes e da hiperglicemia de estresse no infarto agudo do miocárdio

OBJETIVOS: Determinar a prevalência do diabetes melito (DM) e da hiperglicemia de estresse (HE) em pacientes com infarto agudo do miocárdio (IAM) admitidos em unidade de emergência cardiológica. MÉTODOS: Análise retrospectiva de 2.262 pacientes com IAM, avaliando, além da prevalência de diabetes referido, o diagnosticado e a hiperglicemia de estresse. RESULTADOS: Apesar de referido em 12,1% dos pacientes (H: 10,7%, M: 15,8%), o DM ocorria efetivamente em 24,8% (H: 22,9%, M: 29,7%) e a HE em 13,6% (H: 14,3%, M: 11,7%) dos indivíduos dessa população. Portanto, alterações glicêmicas ocorreram em 37,4% dos indivíduos com IAM (H: 37,2%, M: 41,4%). Nos pacientes com DM, observou-se maior precocidade etária do IAM, maior prevalência de óbitos (DM: 20,7%, ND:13,8%, HE: 13,4%) e de procedimentos cirúrgicos (ND: 33,8%, HE: 18,0%, DM: 21,7%). CONCLUSÃO: A elevada prevalência de DM e hiperglicemia de estresse observada em nosso estudo indica que as alterações glicêmicas constituem um dos mais importantes fatores de risco para o IAM.

Fatores preditivos do maior número de estádios na cirurgia micrográfica de Mohs para o tratamento do carcinoma espinocelular da cabeça

FUNDAMENTOS: Os carcinomas espinocelulares da pele da cabeça têm como opção terapêutica mais segura a cirurgia micrográfica de Mohs, que apresenta os menores índices de recidiva e a máxima preservação tecidual. Características dos carcinomas espinocelulares podem estar relacionadas a maior número de estádios cirúrgicos. OBJETIVO: Definir características dos carcinomas espinocelulares que sejam preditoras de maior número de estádios na cirurgia de Mohs. MÉTODOS: Análise retrospectiva de 51 carcinomas espinocelulares da cabeça tratados pela cirurgia de Mohs para determinar fatores de risco de maior número de estádios. Foram analisados limites clínicos, morfologia, recidiva, histologia e tamanho, relacionando-os ao número de estádios cirúrgicos. A análise estatística foi realizada pelo teste exato de Fisher e regressão logística multivariada. RESULTADOS: Os carcinomas recidivados tiveram tendência a maior número de estádios (p=0,081). Os tumores com limites imprecisos apresentaram três vezes mais possibilidades de maior número de fases na análise da razão de chances. Esse achado foi compatível com dados da literatura, apesar de não ter sido estatisticamente significante. CONCLUSÃO: Características pré-operatórias dos carcinomas espinocelulares, como recidiva e limites imprecisos, apesar de não preditivas, indicaram tendência a maior número de estádios na cirurgia micrográfica de Mohs.

Arrhythmias and mortality after myocardial infarction in diabetic patients - Relationship to diabetes treatment

OBJECTIVE- To assess the relationship between clinical course after acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and diabetes treatment. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS- Retrospective analysis of data from all patients aged 25-64 years admitted to hospitals in Perth, Australia, between 1985 and 1993 with AMI diagnosed according to the International Classification of Diseases (9th revision) criteria was conducted. Short- (28-day) and long-term survival and complications in diabetic and nondiabetic patients were compared. For diabetic patients, 28-day survival, dysrhythmias, heart block, and pulmonary edema were treated as outcomes, and factors related to each were assessed using multiple logistic regression. Diabetes treatment was added to the model to assess its significance. Long-term survival was compared by means of a Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS- Of 5,715 patients, 745 (12.9%) were diabetic. Mortality at 28 days was 12.0 and 28.1% for nondiabetic and diabetic patients, respectively (P < 0.001); there were no significant drug effects in the diabetic group. Ventricular fibrillation in diabetic patients taking glibenclamide (11.8%) was similar to that of nondiabetic patients (11.0%) but was lower than that for those patients taking either gliclazide (18.0%; 0.1 > P > 0.05) or insulin (22.8%; P < 0.05). There were no other treatment-related differences in acute complications. Long-term survival in diabetic patients was reduced in those taking digitalis and/or diuretics but type of diabetes treatment at discharge had no significant association with outcome. CONCLUSlONS- These results do not suggest that ischemic heart disease should influence the choice of diabetes treatment regimen in general or of sulfonylurea drug in particular.

Interval breast cancers in an Australian mammographic screening program

Objective: To determine the incidence of interval cancers which occurred in the first 12 months after mammographic screening at a mammographic screening service. Design: Retrospective analysis of data obtained by crossmatching the screening Service and the New South Wales Central Cancer Registry databases. Setting: The Central & Eastern Sydney Service of BreastScreen NSW. Participants: Women aged 40-69 years at first screen, who attended for their first or second screen between 1 March 1988 and 31 December 1992. Main outcome measures: Interval-cancer rates per 10 000 screens and as a proportion of the underlying incidence of breast cancer (as estimated by the underlying rate in the total NSW population). Results: The 12-month interval-cancer incidence per 10 000 screens was 4.17 for the 40-49 years age group (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.35-9.73) and 4.64 for the 50-69 years age group (95% CI, 2.47-7.94). Proportional incidence rates were 30.1% for the 40-49 years age group (95% CI, 9.8-70.3) and 22% for the 50-69 years age group (95% CI, 11.7-37.7). There was no significant difference between the proportional incidence rate for the 50-69 years age group for the Central & Eastern Sydney Service and those of major successful overseas screening trials. Conclusion: Screening quality was acceptable and should result in a significant mortality reduction in the screened population. Given the small number of cancers involved, comparison of interval-cancer statistics of mammographic screening programs with trials requires age-specific or age-adjusted data, and consideration of confidence intervals of both program and trial data.

An evaluation of the time dependence of the anisotropy of the water diffusion tensor in acute human ischemia

We have performed MRI examinations to determine the water diffusion tensor in the brain of six patients who were admitted to the hospital within 12 h after the onset of cerebral ischemic symptoms. The examinations have been carried out immediately after admission, and thereafter at varying intervals up to 90 days post admission. Maps of the trace of the diffusion tensor, the fractional anisotropy and the lattice index, as well as maps of cerebral blood perfusion parameters, were generated to quantitatively assess the character of the water diffusion tensor in the infarcted area. In patients with significant perfusion deficits and substantial lesion volume changes, four of six cases, our measurements show a monotonic and significant decrease in the diffusion anisotropy within the ischemic lesion as a function of time. We propose that retrospective analysis of this quantity, in combination with brain tissue segmentation and cerebral perfusion maps, may be used in future studies to assess the severity of the ischemic event. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Inc.

Overseas visitors admitted to Queensland hospitals for water-related injuries

Objective: To determine the number of overseas visitors admitted to Queensland hospitals for water-related injuries over three years, the causes of their injuries, the resulting conditions treated, and the type of hospitals to which they were admitted. Design: Retrospective analysis of admissions of overseas visitors to Queensland hospitals over the three financial years 1995/96, 1996/97 and 1997/98. Patients: 296 overseas visitors admitted for water-related injuries, identified from hospital records by their usual place of residence. Main outcome measures: Number of admissions, causes of injuries, conditions treated. and bed days occupied by these patients at different types of hospitals (metropolitan, regional and rural public hospitals, and private hospitals). Results: The 296 overseas visitors accounted for a total of 596 separate admissions, many of these the result of patients with decompression illness being admitted several times to a regional hospital hyperbaric chamber for treatment as day patients. The largest number of injuries involved the use of diving equipment. The main conditions treated were decompression illness (54.7%), fractures and dislocations (15.5%), and drowning and non-fatal submersion (14.9%). Overall, overseas visitors admitted to hospital following a water-related incident occupied 1215 bed days; 90% of these admissions were to regional hospitals. Conclusions: The main reason for admission of overseas visitors is for decompression illness, suggesting that the prevention of injuries among scuba divers requires further coordinated efforts by health and tourism authorities.

Referral to post-acute care following traumatic brain injury (TBI) in the Australian context

The study aimed to describe the types of care allocated at the end of acute care to people diagnosed with TBI and to identify the factors associated with variations in referral to care. A retrospective analysis of medical records of 61 patients was conducted based on a sample from two hospitals. While 60.7% of the study sample were referred to formal rehabilitation care, this was primarily non-inpatient rehabilitation care (32.8%). Discriminant analysis was used to determine medical and non-medical predictors of referral. Results indicated that place of treatment and age contribute to group differences and were significant in separating the inpatient rehabilitation group from the non-inpatient and no rehabilitation groups. Review by a rehabilitation physician was associated with referral to inpatient rehabilitation but was not adequate to explain referral to non-inpatient rehabilitation. An in-depth exploration of post-acute referral is warranted to improve policy and practice in relation to continuity of care following TBI.

Three-monthly intravitreal bevacizumab injections for neovascular age-related macular degeneration: short-term visual acuity results

PURPOSE. To evaluate the change in vision after 3 monthly consecutive intravitreal injections of 1.25 mg of bevacizumab for neovascular age-related macular degeneration (AMD). METHODS. A retrospective analysis of 35 eyes was performed. Visual acuity (VA) at initial visit and at each follow-up visit was compared. The injection of bevacizumab was performed at 30-day intervals and patients were observed for 5 months after the last injection. RESULTS. Of the 35 eyes, 9 had received previous treatment with photodynamic therapy with or without 4 mg of intravitreal triamcinolone. VA was measured in Snellen table and transformed into logMAR for statistical purposes. Mean age was 76.66 years (range, 49-90 years). There were 24(69%) women and 11(31%) men. Mean VA at the initial visit was 0.92 +/- 0.50. At month 1, mean VA was 0.84 +/- 0.51 and at month 2 was 0.74 +/- 0.51. At month 3, mean VA remained 0.74 +/- 0.49. Six and 8 months after the initial visit, VA was 0.79 +/- 0.49 and 0.77 +/- 0.50, respectively. The improvement in VA was statistically significant at month 2 and at the end of the follow-up (8 months) compared with the baseline VA. CONCLUSIONS. Three consecutive monthly injections of intravitreal bevacizumab to treat neovascular AMD is effective in improving VA in the short term. Longer prospective studies should be performed to confirm VA stability after the third injection. (Eur J Ophthalmol 2010; 20: 740-4)

Efficacy and safety of iodopovidone pleurodesis in malignant pleural effusions

Background and objective: Pleurodesis is one of the best methods of controlling malignant pleural effusions (MPE), a distressing complication of metastatic disease. In recent studies of a wide range of pleural diseases, iodopovidone was used as a sclerosing agent for pleurodesis and demonstrated good results with low morbidity. The aim of this study was to evaluate the efficacy and safety of iodopovidone pleurodesis in MPE. Methods: A retrospective analysis was performed on patients with MPE who underwent pleurodesis at our institution between 2005 and 2008. All patients underwent instillation of 20 mL of 10% iodopovidone, 80 mL of normal saline and 2 mg/kg of lidocaine through a chest tube, which was clamped for 2 h. The tube was removed when the daily output of fluid was < 200 mL. Data on the requirement for additional pleural procedures, adverse events and survival were collected. Results: Sixty-one pleurodesis procedures were performed in 54 patients. No procedure-related mortality was observed. Adverse events occurred after 11 (18%) pleurodesis procedures. The most frequent complication was mild thoracic pain that occurred immediately after 10 (16.4%) procedures, and one patient developed pleural empyema that was treated with drainage and antibiotics. A success rate of 98.4% was observed. Except for the patient who developed pleural empyema, none of the other patients had recurrences of pleural fluid or required additional pleural procedures during the follow-up period (mean of 5.6 months). Conclusions: Iodopovidone pleurodesis was successful and was associated with only a few minor complications. It appears to be a good option for the management of recurrent MPE.