An analysis of the passenger to cabin crew ratio and exit reliability based on past survivable aviation accidents

A hotly debated issue in the area of aviation safety is the number of cabin crew members required to evacuate an aircraft in the event of an emergency. Most countries regulate the minimum number required for the safe operation of an aircraft, but these rulings are based on little if any scientific evidence. Another issue of concern is the failure rate of exits and slides. This paper examines these issues using the latest version of Aircraft Accident Statistics and Knowledge database AASK V4.0, which contains information from 105 survivable crashes and more than 2,000 survivors, including accounts from 155 cabin crew members.

CAA paper 2006/01: a database to record human experience of evacuation in aviation accidents: the aircraft accident statistics and knowledge database (AASK)

This report concerns the development of the AASK V4.0 database (CAA Project 560/SRG/R+AD). AASK is the Aircraft Accident Statistics and Knowledge database, which is a repository of survivor accounts from aviation accidents. Its main purpose is to store observational and anecdotal data from interviews of the occupants involved in aircraft accidents. The AASK database has wide application to aviation safety analysis, being a source of factual data regarding the evacuation process. It is also key to the development of aircraft evacuation models such as airEXODUS, where insight into how people actually behave during evacuation from survivable aircraft crashes is required. With support from the UK CAA (Project 277/SRG/R&AD), AASK V3.0 was developed. This was an on-line prototype system available over the internet to selected users and included a significantly increased number of passenger accounts compared with earlier versions, the introduction of cabin crew accounts, the introduction of fatality information and improved functionality through the seat plan viewer utility. The most recently completed AASK project (Project 560/SRG/R+AD) involved four main components: a) analysis of the data collected in V3.0; b) continued collection and entry of data into AASK; c) maintenance and functional development of the AASK database; and d) user feedback survey. All four components have been pursued and completed in this two-year project. The current version developed in the last year of the project is referred to as AASK V4.0. This report provides summaries of the work done and the results obtained in relation to the project deliverables.

Investigating the impact of exit availability on egress time using computer based evacuation simulation

This paper examines the influence of exit availability on evacuation time for a narrow body aircraft under certification trial conditions using computer simulation. A narrow body aircraft which has previously passed the certification trial is used as the test configuration. While maintaining the certification requirement of 50% of the available exits, six different exit configurations are examined. These include the standard certification configuration (one exit from each exit pair) and five other exit configurations based on commonly occurring exit combinations found in accidents. These configurations are based on data derived from the AASK database and the evacuation simulations are performed using the airEXODUS evacuation simulation software. The results show that the certification practice of using half the available exits predominately down one side of the aircraft is neither statistically relevant nor challenging. For the aircraft cabin layout examined, the exit configuration used in certification trial produces the shortest egress times. Furthermore, three of the six exit combinations investigated result in predicted egress times in excess of 90 seconds, suggesting that the aircraft would not satisfy the certification requirement under these conditions.

Predicting the likely impact of aircraft post crash fire on aircraft evacuation using fire and evacuation simulation

The SMARTFIRE Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) fire field model has successfully reproduced the observed characteristics including measured temperatures, species concentrations and time to flashover for a post-crash fire experiment conducted by the FAA within their C-133 cabin test facility. In this test only one exit was open in order to provide ventilation for the developing cabin fire. In real post-crash fires, many exits are likely to be open as passangers attempt to evacuate. In this paper, the likely impacts on evacuation of a post-crash fire in which various exiting combinations are available are investigated. The fire scenario, investigated using the SMARTFIRE software, is based on the C-133 experiment but with a fully furnished cabin and with four different exit availability options. The fire data is imported into the airEXODUS evacuation simulation software and the resulting evacuations examined. The combined fire and evacuation analysis reveals that even though the aircraft configuration is predicted to comfortably satisfy the evacuation certification requirement, when fire is included, a number of casualties result, even from the certification compliant exit configuration.

Investigating the impact of aircraft exit availability on egress time using computer simulation

This paper examines the influence of exit availability on evacuation time for narrow body aircraft under certification trial conditions using computer simulation. A narrow body aircraft which has previously passed the certification trial is used as the test configuration. While maintaining the certification requirement of 50% of the available exits, six different configurations are examined. These include the standard certification and five other exit configurations based on commonly occurring exit combinations found in accidents. These configurations are based on data derived from the AASK database and the evacuation simulations are performed using the airEXODUS evacuation software. The results show that the certification practise of using half of the available exits predominately down one side of the aircraft is neither statistically relevant nor challenging. For the aircraft cabin layout examined, the exit configuration used in certification trial produces the shortest egress times. Furthermore, three of the six exit combinations investigated result in predicted egress times in excess of 90 seconds, suggesting that the aircraft would not satisfy the certification requirement under these conditions.

Design of a Virtual Reality Framework for Maintainability and assemblability test of complex systems

This paper presents a unique environment whose features are able to satisfy requirements for both virtual maintenance and virtual manufacturing through the conception of original virtual reality (VR) architecture. Virtual Reality for the Maintainability and Assemblability Tests (VR_MATE) encompasses VR hardware and software and a simulation manager which allows customisation of the architecture itself as well as interfacing with a wide range of devices employed in the simulations. Two case studies are presented to illustrate VR_MATE's unique ability to allow for both maintainability tests and assembly analysis of an aircraft carriage and a railway coach cooling system respectively. The key impact of this research is the demonstration of the potentialities of using VR techniques in industry and its multiple applications despite the subjective character within the simulation. VR_MATE has been presented as a framework to support the strategic and operative objectives of companies to reduce product development time and costs whilst maintaining product quality for applications which would be too expensive to simulate and evaluate in the real world.

Estratégias e internacionalização na manutenção e produção

Trabalho Final de Mestrado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Mecânica

Reliability and availability in reconfigurable computing: a basis for a common solution

Dynamically reconfigurable SRAM-based field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs) enable the implementation of reconfigurable computing systems where several applications may be run simultaneously, sharing the available resources according to their own immediate functional requirements. To exclude malfunctioning due to faulty elements, the reliability of all FPGA resources must be guaranteed. Since resource allocation takes place asynchronously, an online structural test scheme is the only way of ensuring reliable system operation. On the other hand, this test scheme should not disturb the operation of the circuit, otherwise availability would be compromised. System performance is also influenced by the efficiency of the management strategies that must be able to dynamically allocate enough resources when requested by each application. As those resources are allocated and later released, many small free resource blocks are created, which are left unused due to performance and routing restrictions. To avoid wasting logic resources, the FPGA logic space must be defragmented regularly. This paper presents a non-intrusive active replication procedure that supports the proposed test methodology and the implementation of defragmentation strategies, assuring both the availability of resources and their perfect working condition, without disturbing system operation.

Disseminated M. avium complex infection in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study: declining incidence, improved prognosis and discontinuation of maintenance therapy.

Introduction of potent antiretroviral combination therapy (ART) has reduced overall morbidity and mortality amongst HIV-infected adults. Some prophylactic regimes against opportunistic infections can be discontinued in patients under successful ART. (1) The influence of the availability of ART on incidence and mortality of disseminated M. avium Complex infection (MAC). (2) The safety of discontinuation of maintenance therapy against MAC in patients on ART. The Swiss HIV-Cohort Study, a prospective multicentre study of HIV-infected adults. Patients with a nadir CD4 count below 50 cells/mm3 were considered at risk for MAC and contributed to total follow-up time for calculating the incidence. Survival analysis was performed by using Kaplan Meier and Cox proportional hazards methods. Safety of discontinuation of maintenance therapy was evaluated by review of the medical notes. 398 patients were diagnosed with MAC from 1990 to 1999. 350 had a previous CD4 count below 50 cells/mm3. A total of 3208 patients had a nadir CD4 count of less than 50 cells/mm3 during the study period and contributed to a total follow-up of 6004 person-years. The incidence over the whole study period was 5.8 events per 100 person-years. In the time period of available ART the incidence of MAC was significantly reduced (1.4 versus 8.8 events per 100 person-years, p < 0.001). Being diagnosed after 1995 was the most powerful predictor of better survival (adjusted hazard ratio for death: 0.27; p < 0.001). None of 24 patients discontinuing maintenance therapy while on ART experienced recurrence of MAC during a total follow-up of 56.6 person-years (upper 95% confidence limit 5.3 per 100 person-years). Introducing ART has markedly reduced the risk of MAC for HIV-infected individuals with a history of very low CD4 counts. Survival after diagnosis of MAC has improved after ART became available. In patients responding to ART, discontinuation of maintenance therapy against M. avium may be safe.

Käyttövarmuusanalyysin tuottama tärkeysjärjestys elintarviketeollisuuden prosessilaitteille – Suuntaviivat kustannustietoisen kunnossapitostrategian luomiselle

Hallitsematon ja reaktiivinen kunnossapito on eräs tuotannon suurimpia kustannustekijöistä. Suunnitelmallisesti ja systemaattisesti johdettuna kunnossapito on tuotantotehokkuuden suurin vaikuttaja. Merkittävä osa tuotannon tehokkuuden ylläpidosta saavutetaan laitteiden käyttövarmuudella. Käyttövarmuuden saaminen hallintaan perustuu ennakoivan kunnossapidon määrän kasvattamiseen. Samalla korjaavan kunnossapidon kustannusriski laskee ja siihen käytetty panos vähenee. Huonolla kunnossapidon suunnitelmallisuudella on päinvastaiset vaikutukset. Tavoitteena on määritellä prosessilaitteiden käyttövarmuuksiin perustuva laitekriittisyys. Tutkimuksessa yhdistetään riskien arviointimenetelmiä, joilla keskimääräiset vikavälit ja seuraukset valmistukseen mallinnetaan. Kriittisyystekijöitä ovat käytettävyys, luotettavuus, kustannustekijät, turvallisuus ja ympäristövaikutukset. Tekijöiden arvottamiseen kehitettiin riksianalyysitaulukko. Kriittisyysluokat jaettiin kolmeen kategoriaan, joista A on kriittisin, B keskinkertainen ja C on matalin luokka. Lähtötietojen keräys toteutettiin triangulaatiomenetelmää soveltaen. Empiirisessä osassa HKScan Oy:n lihanjalostustehtaan jauheliha- ja kestomakkaraosastojen laitteet jaettiin A-, B- ja C-luokkiin. Kriittisimpiä laitteita oli 20 prosenttia analysoidusta laitemäärästä. Nämä A-luokkaan sijoitetut laitteet aiheuttavat 80 prosenttia kustannusriskeistä. B-luokkaan kuuluu 50 prosenttia ja C-luokkaan 30 prosenttia laitteista. Luokittelusta erotettiin havaitut turvallisuusriskit riskienhallinnan toimenpiteitä varten. Kustannustietoinen kriittisyysluokittelu on pohja kunnossapitostrategian rakentamiselle. Tämän avuksi esitettiin taulukot huolto-ohjelman luomiseen ja luokituksien hyödyntämiseen päivittäisessä toiminnassa.

A New Model For Reliability Centered Maintenance In Petroleum Refineries

Refiners today operate their equipment for prolonged periods without shutdown. This is primarily due to the increased pressures of the market resulting in extended shutdown-to-shutdown intervals. This places extreme demands on the reliability of the plant equipment. The traditional methods of reliability assurance, like Preventive Maintenance, Predictive Maintenance and Condition Based Maintenance become inadequate in the face of such demands. The alternate approaches to reliability improvement, being adopted the world over are implementation of RCFA programs and Reliability Centered Maintenance. However refiners and process plants find it difficult to adopt this standardized methodology of RCM mainly due to the complexity and the large amount of analysis that needs to be done, resulting in a long drawn out implementation, requiring the services of a number of skilled people. These results in either an implementation restricted to only few equipment or alternately, one that is non-standard. The paper presents the current models in use, the core requirements of a standard RCM model, the alternatives to classical RCM, limitations in the existing model, classical RCM and available alternatives to RCM and will then go on to present an ‗Accelerated‘ approach to RCM implementation, that, while ensuring close conformance to the standard, does not place a large burden on the implementers

Road Design for Future Maintenance : Life-cycle Cost Analyses for Road Barriers

The cost of a road construction over its service life is a function of design, quality of construction as well as maintenance strategies and operations. An optimal life-cycle cost for a road requires evaluations of the above mentioned components. Unfortunately, road designers often neglect a very important aspect, namely, the possibility to perform future maintenance activities. Focus is mainly directed towards other aspects such as investment costs, traffic safety, aesthetic appearance, regional development and environmental effects. This doctoral thesis presents the results of a research project aimed to increase consideration of road maintenance aspects in the planning and design process. The following subgoals were established: Identify the obstacles that prevent adequate consideration of future maintenance during the road planning and design process; and Examine optimisation of life-cycle costs as an approach towards increased efficiency during the road planning and design process. The research project started with a literature review aimed at evaluating the extent to which maintenance aspects are considered during road planning and design as an improvement potential for maintenance efficiency. Efforts made by road authorities to increase efficiency, especially maintenance efficiency, were evaluated. The results indicated that all the evaluated efforts had one thing in common, namely ignorance of the interrelationship between geometrical road design and maintenance as an effective tool to increase maintenance efficiency. Focus has mainly been on improving operating practises and maintenance procedures. This fact might also explain why some efforts to increase maintenance efficiency have been less successful. An investigation was conducted to identify the problems and difficulties, which obstruct due consideration of maintainability during the road planning and design process. A method called “Change Analysis” was used to analyse data collected during interviews with experts in road design and maintenance. The study indicated a complex combination of problems which result in inadequate consideration of maintenance aspects when planning and designing roads. The identified problems were classified into six categories: insufficient consulting, insufficient knowledge, regulations and specifications without consideration of maintenance aspects, insufficient planning and design activities, inadequate organisation and demands from other authorities. Several urgent needs for changes to eliminate these problems were identified. One of the problems identified in the above mentioned study as an obstacle for due consideration of maintenance aspects during road design was the absence of a model for calculating life-cycle costs for roads. Because of this lack of knowledge, the research project focused on implementing a new approach for calculating and analysing life-cycle costs for roads with emphasis on the relationship between road design and road maintainability. Road barriers were chosen as an example. The ambition is to develop this approach to cover other road components at a later stage. A study was conducted to quantify repair rates for barriers and associated repair costs as one of the major maintenance costs for road barriers. A method called “Case Study Research Method” was used to analyse the effect of several factors on barrier repairs costs, such as barrier type, road type, posted speed and seasonal effect. The analyses were based on documented data associated with 1625 repairs conducted in four different geographical regions in Sweden during 2006. A model for calculation of average repair costs per vehicle kilometres was created. Significant differences in the barrier repair costs were found between the studied barrier types. In another study, the injuries associated with road barrier collisions and the corresponding influencing factors were analysed. The analyses in this study were based on documented data from actual barrier collisions between 2005 and 2008 in Sweden. The result was used to calculate the cost for injuries associated with barrier collisions as a part of the socio-economic cost for road barriers. The results showed significant differences in the number of injuries associated with collisions with different barrier types. To calculate and analyse life-cycle costs for road barriers a new approach was developed based on a method called “Activity-based Life-cycle Costing”. By modelling uncertainties, the presented approach gives a possibility to identify and analyse factors crucial for optimising life-cycle costs. The study showed a great potential to increase road maintenance efficiency through road design. It also showed that road components with low investment costs might not be the best choice when including maintenance and socio-economic aspects. The difficulties and problems faced during the collection of data for calculating life-cycle costs for road barriers indicated a great need for improving current data collecting and archiving procedures. The research focused on Swedish road planning and design. However, the conclusions can be applied to other Nordic countries, where weather conditions and road design practices are similar. The general methodological approaches used in this research project may be applied also to other studies.

Considerations about the welding repair effects on the structural integrity of an airframe critical to the flight-safety

Structures critical to the flight-safety are commonly submitted to several maintenance repairs at the welded joints in order to prolong the in-service life of aircrafts. The aim of this study is to analyze the effects of Tungsten Inert Gas (TIG) welding repair on the structural integrity of the AISI 4130 aeronautical steel by means of experimental fatigue crack growth tests in base-material, heat-affected zone (HAZ) and weld metal. The tests were performed on hot-rolled steel plate specimens, 0.89 mm thick, with load ratio R = 0.1, constant amplitude, at 10 Hz frequency and room temperature. Increase of the fracture resistance was observed in the weld metal but decreasing in the HAZ after repair. The results were associated to microhardness and microstructural changes with the welding sequence. (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

A proposal for reliability evaluation of components on electric power distribution system integrating probabilistic models and fuzzy inference systems

The system reliability depends on the reliability of its components itself. Therefore, it is necessary a methodology capable of inferring the state of functionality of these components to establish reliable indices of quality. Allocation models for maintenance and protective devices, among others, have been used in order to improve the quality and availability of services on electric power distribution systems. This paper proposes a methodology for assessing the reliability of distribution system components in an integrated way, using probabilistic models and fuzzy inference systems to infer about the operation probability of each component. © 2012 IEEE.

Monitoramento e avaliação da condição de um sistema propulsor aeronaútico através de técnicas de análise de partículas em óleos lubrificantes

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)