Fitting genetic models to twin data with binary and ordered categorical responses: A comparison of structural equation modelling and Bayesian hierarchical models

We compare Bayesian methodology utilizing free-ware BUGS (Bayesian Inference Using Gibbs Sampling) with the traditional structural equation modelling approach based on another free-ware package, Mx. Dichotomous and ordinal (three category) twin data were simulated according to different additive genetic and common environment models for phenotypic variation. Practical issues are discussed in using Gibbs sampling as implemented by BUGS to fit subject-specific Bayesian generalized linear models, where the components of variation may be estimated directly. The simulation study (based on 2000 twin pairs) indicated that there is a consistent advantage in using the Bayesian method to detect a correct model under certain specifications of additive genetics and common environmental effects. For binary data, both methods had difficulty in detecting the correct model when the additive genetic effect was low (between 10 and 20%) or of moderate range (between 20 and 40%). Furthermore, neither method could adequately detect a correct model that included a modest common environmental effect (20%) even when the additive genetic effect was large (50%). Power was significantly improved with ordinal data for most scenarios, except for the case of low heritability under a true ACE model. We illustrate and compare both methods using data from 1239 twin pairs over the age of 50 years, who were registered with the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council Twin Registry (ATR) and presented symptoms associated with osteoarthritis occurring in joints of the hand.

Conceptual modelling and ontology: Possibilities and pitfalls

Conceptual modelling is an activity undertaken during information systems development work to build a representation of selected semantics about some real-world domain. Ontological theories have been developed to account for the structure and behavior of the real world in general. In this paper, I discuss why ontological theories can be used to inform conceptual modelling research, practice, and pedagogy. I provide examples from my research to illustrate how a particular ontological theory has enabled me to improve my understanding of certain conceptual modelling practices and grammars. I describe, also, how some colleagues and I have used this theory to generate several counter-intuitive, sometimes surprising predictions about widely advocated conceptual modelling practices - predictions that subsequently were supported in empirical research we undertook. Finally, I discuss several possibilities and pitfalls I perceived to be associated with our using ontological theories to underpin research on conceptual modelling.

Bridging the gap between different statistical approaches: An integrated framework for modelling

This paper proposes a template for modelling complex datasets that integrates traditional statistical modelling approaches with more recent advances in statistics and modelling through an exploratory framework. Our approach builds on the well-known and long standing traditional idea of 'good practice in statistics' by establishing a comprehensive framework for modelling that focuses on exploration, prediction, interpretation and reliability assessment, a relatively new idea that allows individual assessment of predictions. The integrated framework we present comprises two stages. The first involves the use of exploratory methods to help visually understand the data and identify a parsimonious set of explanatory variables. The second encompasses a two step modelling process, where the use of non-parametric methods such as decision trees and generalized additive models are promoted to identify important variables and their modelling relationship with the response before a final predictive model is considered. We focus on fitting the predictive model using parametric, non-parametric and Bayesian approaches. This paper is motivated by a medical problem where interest focuses on developing a risk stratification system for morbidity of 1,710 cardiac patients given a suite of demographic, clinical and preoperative variables. Although the methods we use are applied specifically to this case study, these methods can be applied across any field, irrespective of the type of response.

Conspicuous males suffer higher predation risk: visual modelling and experimental evidence from lizards

Colour pattern variation is a striking and widespread phenomenon. Differential predation risk between individuals is often invoked to explain colour variation, but empirical support for this hypothesis is equivocal. We investigated differential conspicuousness and predation risk in two species of Australian rock dragons, Ctenophorus decresii and C. vadnappa. To humans, the coloration of males of these species varies between 'bright' and 'dull'. Visual modelling based on objective colour measurements and the spectral sensitivities of avian visual pigments showed that dragon colour variants are differentially conspicuous to the visual system of avian predators when viewed against the natural background. We conducted field experiments to test for differential predation risk, using plaster models of 'bright' and 'dull' males. 'Bright' models were attacked significantly more often than 'dull' models suggesting that differential conspicuousness translates to differential predation risk in the wild. We also examined the influence of natural geographical range on predation risk. Results from 22 localities suggest that predation rates vary according to whether predators are familiar with the prey species. This study is among the first to demonstrate both differential conspicuousness and differential predation risk in the wild using an experimental protocol. (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour.

Discrete element modelling of the influence of lifters on power draw of tumbling mills

Crushing and grinding are the most energy intensive part of the mineral recovery process. A major part of rock size reduction occurs in tumbling mills. Empirical models for the power draw of tumbling mills do not consider the effect of lifters. Discrete element modelling was used to investigate the effect of lifter condition on the power draw of tumbling mill. Results obtained with PFC3D code show that lifter condition will have a significant influence on the power draw and on the mode of energy consumption in the mill. Relatively high lifters will consume less power than low lifters, under otherwise identical conditions. The fraction of the power that will be consumed as friction will increase as the height of the lifters decreases. This will result in less power being used for high intensity comminution caused by the impacts. The fraction of the power that will be used to overcome frictional resistance is determined by the material's coefficient of friction. Based on the modelled results, it appears that the effective coefficient of friction for in situ mill is close to 0.1. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Applying discrete element modelling to vertical and horizontal shaft impact crushers

The PFC3D (particle flow code) that models the movement and interaction of particles by the DEM techniques was employed to simulate the particle movement and to calculate the velocity and energy distribution of collision in two types of impact crusher: the Canica vertical shaft crusher and the BJD horizontal shaft swing hammer mill. The distribution of collision energies was then converted into a product size distribution for a particular ore type using JKMRC impact breakage test data. Experimental data of the Canica VSI crusher treating quarry and the BJD hammer mill treating coal were used to verify the DEM simulation results. Upon the DEM procedures being validated, a detailed simulation study was conducted to investigate the effects of the machine design and operational conditions on velocity and energy distributions of collision inside the milling chamber and on the particle breakage behaviour. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling the size of the crushed zone around a blasthole

A new model to predict the extent of crushing around a blasthole is presented. The model is based on the back-analysis of a comprehensive experimental program that included the direct measurement of the zone of crushing from 92 blasting tests on concrete blocks using two commercial explosives. The concrete blocks varied from low, medium to high strength and measured 1.5 in in length, 1.0 m in width and 1.1 m in height. A dimensionless parameter called the crushing zone index (CZI) is introduced. This index measures the crushing potential of a charged blasthole and is a function of the borehole pressure, the unconfined compressive strength of the rock material, dynamic Young's modulus and Poisson's ratio. It is shown that the radius of crushing is a function of the CZI and the blasthole radius. A good correlation between the new model and measured results was obtained. A number of previously proposed models could not approximate the conditions measured in the experimental work and there are noted discrepancies between the different approaches reviewed, particularly for smaller diameter holes and low strength rock conditions. The new model has been verified with full scale tests reported in the literature. Results from this validation and model evaluations show its applicability to production blasting. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Discrete element modelling of power draw of tumbling mills

The power required to operate large mills is typically 5-10 MW. Hence, optimisation of power consumption will have a significant impact on overall economic performance and environmental impact. Power draw modelling results using the discrete element code PFC3D have been compared with results derived from the widely used empirical Model of Morrell. This is achieved by calculating the power draw for a range of operating conditions for constant mill size and fill factor using two modelling approaches. fThe discrete element modelling results show that, apart from density, selection of the appropriate material damping ratio is critical for the accuracy of modelling of the mill power draw. The relative insensitivity of the power draw to the material stiffness allows selection of moderate stiffness values, which result in acceptable computation time. The results obtained confirm that modelling of the power draw for a vertical slice of the mill, of thickness 20% of the mill length, is a reliable substitute for modelling the full mill. The power draw predictions from PFC3D show good agreement with those obtained using the empirical model. Due to its inherent flexibility, power draw modelling using PFC3D appears to be a viable and attractive alternative to empirical models where necessary code and computer power are available.

Modelling the Mechanical Behavior of Polymer-Based Nanocomposites

Molecular dynamics simulations were employed to analyze the mechanical properties of polymer-based nanocomposites with varying nanofiber network parameters. The study was focused on nanofiber aspect ratio, concentration and initial orientation. The reinforcing phase affects the behavior of the polymeric nanocomposite. Simulations have shown that the fiber concentration has a significant effect on the properties, with higher loadings resulting in higher stress levels and higher stiffness, matching the general behavior from experimental knowledge in this field. The results also indicate that, within the studied range, the observed effect of the aspect ratio and initial orientation is smaller than that of the concentration, and that these two parameters are interrelated.

Automatic prebent customized prosthesis for pectus excavatum minimally invasive surgery correction

Pectus excavatum is the most common deformity of the thorax. A minimally invasive surgical correction is commonly carried out to remodel the anterior chest wall by using an intrathoracic convex prosthesis in the substernal position. The process of prosthesis modeling and bending still remains an area of improvement. The authors developed a new system, i3DExcavatum, which can automatically model and bend the bar preoperatively based on a thoracic CT scan. This article presents a comparison between automatic and manual bending. The i3DExcavatum was used to personalize prostheses for 41 patients who underwent pectus excavatum surgical correction between 2007 and 2012. Regarding the anatomical variations, the soft-tissue thicknesses external to the ribs show that both symmetric and asymmetric patients always have asymmetric variations, by comparing the patients’ sides. It highlighted that the prosthesis bar should be modeled according to each patient’s rib positions and dimensions. The average differences between the skin and costal line curvature lengths were 84 ± 4 mm and 96 ± 11 mm, for male and female patients, respectively. On the other hand, the i3DExcavatum ensured a smooth curvature of the surgical prosthesis and was capable of predicting and simulating a virtual shape and size of the bar for asymmetric and symmetric patients. In conclusion, the i3DExcavatum allows preoperative personalization according to the thoracic morphology of each patient. It reduces surgery time and minimizes the margin error introduced by the manually bent bar, which only uses a template that copies the chest wall curvature.

Thoracic wall reconstruction using ultrasound images to model/bend the thoracic prosthesis for correction of pectus excavatum

Pectus excavatum is the most common congenital deformity of the anterior thoracic wall. The surgical correction of such deformity, using Nuss procedure, consists in the placement of a personalized convex prosthesis into sub-sternal position to correct the deformity. The aim of this work is the CT-scan substitution by ultrasound imaging for the pre-operative diagnosis and pre-modeling of the prosthesis, in order to avoid patient radiation exposure. To accomplish this, ultrasound images are acquired along an axial plane, followed by a rigid registration method to obtain the spatial transformation between subsequent images. These images are overlapped to reconstruct an axial plane equivalent to a CT-slice. A phantom was used to conduct preliminary experiments and the achieved results were compared with the corresponding CT-data, showing that the proposed methodology can be capable to create a valid approximation of the anterior thoracic wall, which can be used to model/bend the prosthesis

Automatic prebent customized prosthesis for pectus excavatum minimally invasive surgery correction

Pectus excavatum is the most common deformity of the thorax. A minimally invasive surgical correction is commonly carried out to remodel the anterior chest wall by using an intrathoracic convex prosthesis in the substernal position. The process of prosthesis modeling and bending still remains an area of improvement. The authors developed a new system, i3DExcavatum, which can automatically model and bend the bar preoperatively based on a thoracic CT scan. This article presents a comparison between automatic and manual bending. The i3DExcavatum was used to personalize prostheses for 41 patients who underwent pectus excavatum surgical correction between 2007 and 2012. Regarding the anatomical variations, the soft-tissue thicknesses external to the ribs show that both symmetric and asymmetric patients always have asymmetric variations, by comparing the patients’ sides. It highlighted that the prosthesis bar should be modeled according to each patient’s rib positions and dimensions. The average differences between the skin and costal line curvature lengths were 84 ± 4 mm and 96 ± 11 mm, for male and female patients, respectively. On the other hand, the i3DExcavatum ensured a smooth curvature of the surgical prosthesis and was capable of predicting and simulating a virtual shape and size of the bar for asymmetric and symmetric patients. In conclusion, the i3DExcavatum allows preoperative personalization according to the thoracic morphology of each patient. It reduces surgery time and minimizes the margin error introduced by the manually bent bar, which only uses a template that copies the chest wall curvature.

Automatic prebent customized prosthesis for pectus excavatum minimally invasive surgery correction

Pectus excavatum is the most common deformity of the thorax. A minimally invasive surgical correction is commonly carried out to remodel the anterior chest wall by using an intrathoracic convex prosthesis in the substernal position. The process of prosthesis modeling and bending still remains an area of improvement. The authors developed a new system, i3DExcavatum, which can automatically model and bend the bar preoperatively based on a thoracic CT scan. This article presents a comparison between automatic and manual bending. The i3DExcavatum was used to personalize prostheses for 41 patients who underwent pectus excavatum surgical correction between 2007 and 2012. Regarding the anatomical variations, the soft-tissue thicknesses external to the ribs show that both symmetric and asymmetric patients always have asymmetric variations, by comparing the patients’ sides. It highlighted that the prosthesis bar should be modeled according to each patient’s rib positions and dimensions. The average differences between the skin and costal line curvature lengths were 84 ± 4 mm and 96 ± 11 mm, for male and female patients, respectively. On the other hand, the i3DExcavatum ensured a smooth curvature of the surgical prosthesis and was capable of predicting and simulating a virtual shape and size of the bar for asymmetric and symmetric patients. In conclusion, the i3DExcavatum allows preoperative personalization according to the thoracic morphology of each patient. It reduces surgery time and minimizes the margin error introduced by the manually bent bar, which only uses a template that copies the chest wall curvature.