Communicative and Anticipatory Decision-making Supported by Bayesian Networks

The purpose of this research is to draw up a clear construction of an anticipatory communicative decision-making process and a successful implementation of a Bayesian application that can be used as an anticipatory communicative decision-making support system. This study is a decision-oriented and constructive research project, and it includes examples of simulated situations. As a basis for further methodological discussion about different approaches to management research, in this research, a decision-oriented approach is used, which is based on mathematics and logic, and it is intended to develop problem solving methods. The approach is theoretical and characteristic of normative management science research. Also, the approach of this study is constructive. An essential part of the constructive approach is to tie the problem to its solution with theoretical knowledge. Firstly, the basic definitions and behaviours of an anticipatory management and managerial communication are provided. These descriptions include discussions of the research environment and formed management processes. These issues define and explain the background to further research. Secondly, it is processed to managerial communication and anticipatory decision-making based on preparation, problem solution, and solution search, which are also related to risk management analysis. After that, a solution to the decision-making support application is formed, using four different Bayesian methods, as follows: the Bayesian network, the influence diagram, the qualitative probabilistic network, and the time critical dynamic network. The purpose of the discussion is not to discuss different theories but to explain the theories which are being implemented. Finally, an application of Bayesian networks to the research problem is presented. The usefulness of the prepared model in examining a problem and the represented results of research is shown. The theoretical contribution includes definitions and a model of anticipatory decision-making. The main theoretical contribution of this study has been to develop a process for anticipatory decision-making that includes management with communication, problem-solving, and the improvement of knowledge. The practical contribution includes a Bayesian Decision Support Model, which is based on Bayesian influenced diagrams. The main contributions of this research are two developed processes, one for anticipatory decision-making, and the other to produce a model of a Bayesian network for anticipatory decision-making. In summary, this research contributes to decision-making support by being one of the few publicly available academic descriptions of the anticipatory decision support system, by representing a Bayesian model that is grounded on firm theoretical discussion, by publishing algorithms suitable for decision-making support, and by defining the idea of anticipatory decision-making for a parallel version. Finally, according to the results of research, an analysis of anticipatory management for planned decision-making is presented, which is based on observation of environment, analysis of weak signals, and alternatives to creative problem solving and communication.

Group Beliefs : Studies on the Nature and Logic of Collective Doxastic Attitudes

This thesis studies the nature and logic of collective doxastic attitudes, or what is referred to in ordinary language as "group beliefs". Beliefs and other intentional attitudes are attributed to groups and collections of people, and such attributions are used to explain and predict the actions of groups. The thesis develops an understanding of group beliefs as voluntarily adopted views or acceptances rather than as ordinary beliefs. Such an understanding can provide new answers to questions concerning collective knowledge and justification of group beliefs, and it allows developing modal logics with collective doxastic and epistemic notions. The thesis consists of six articles. The first three articles are philosophical studies concerned with the nature of group beliefs. The last three articles are logical studies that aim at developing proof-theoretical calculi for reasoning about collective doxastic attitudes.

Two-way converter logic for positive and negative binary numbers

This paper describes a hardware implementation of a two-way converter logic by which conversion between numbers from positive to negative binary representation is possible. Index terms: (i) Negative radix, (ii) Positive radix, (iii) Two-way conversion.

Probabilistic Inductive Querying Using ProbLog

We study how probabilistic reasoning and inductive querying can be combined within ProbLog, a recent probabilistic extension of Prolog. ProbLog can be regarded as a database system that supports both probabilistic and inductive reasoning through a variety of querying mechanisms. After a short introduction to ProbLog, we provide a survey of the different types of inductive queries that ProbLog supports, and show how it can be applied to the mining of large biological networks.

Probabilistic evaluation of seismic soil liquefaction potential based on SPT data

The performance-based liquefaction potential analysis was carried out in the present study to estimate the liquefaction return period for Bangalore, India, through a probabilistic approach. In this approach, the entire range of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and earthquake magnitudes was used in the evaluation of liquefaction return period. The seismic hazard analysis for the study area was done using probabilistic approach to evaluate the peak horizontal acceleration at bed rock level. Based on the results of the multichannel analysis of surface wave, it was found that the study area belonged to site class D. The PGA values for the study area were evaluated for site class D by considering the local site effects. The soil resistance for the study area was characterized using the standard penetration test (SPT) values obtained from 450 boreholes. These SPT data along with the PGA values obtained from the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis were used to evaluate the liquefaction return period for the study area. The contour plot showing the spatial variation of factor of safety against liquefaction and the corrected SPT values required for preventing liquefaction for a return period of 475 years at depths of 3 and 6 m are presented in this paper. The entire process of liquefaction potential evaluation, starting from collection of earthquake data, identifying the seismic sources, evaluation of seismic hazard and the assessment of liquefaction return period were carried out, and the entire analysis was done based on the probabilistic approach.

Exploring Customer Value Formation: A Customer Dominant Logic Perspective

This paper extends current discussions about value creation and proposes a customer dominant value perspective. A customer-dominant marketing logic positions the customer in the center, rather than the service provider/producer or the interaction or the system. The focus is shifted from the company´s service processes involving the customer, to the customer´s multi-contextual value formation, involving the company. It is argued that value is not always an active process of creation; instead value is embedded and formed in the highly dynamic and multi-contextual reality and life of the customer. This leads to a need to look beyond the current line of visibility where visible customer-company interactions are focused to the invisible and mental life of the customer. From this follows a need to extend the temporal scope, from exchange and use even further to accumulated experiences in the customer´s life. The aim of this paper is to explore value formation from a customer dominant logic perspective. This is done in three steps: first, value formation is contrasted to earlier views on the company’s role in value creation by using a broad ontologically driven framework discussing what, how, when, where and who. Next, implications of the proposed characteristics of value formation compared to earlier approaches are put forward. Finally, some tentative suggestions of how this perspective would affect marketing in service companies are presented. As value formation in a CDL perspective has a different focus and scope than earlier views on value it leads to posing questions about the customer that reveals earlier hidden aspects of the role of a service for the customer. This insight might be used in service development and innovation.

Rethinking Service Companies’ Business Logic: Do We Need a Customer-Dominant Logic as a Guideline?

Purpose –This paper explores and expands the roles of customers and companies in creating value by introducing a new a customer-based approach to service. The customer’s logic is examined as being the foundation of a customer-based marketing and business logic. Design/methodology/approach – The authors argue that both goods-dominant logics and service-dominant logics are provider-dominant. Contrasting the customer-dominant logic with provider-dominant logics, the paper examines the creation of service value from the perspectives of value-in-use, the customer’s own context, and the customer’s experience of service. Findings –Moving from a provider-dominant logic to a customer-dominant logic uncovered five major challenges to service marketers: Company involvement, company control in co-creation, visibility of value creation, locus of customer experience, and character of customer experience. Research limitations/implications – The paper is exploratory. It presents and discusses a conceptual model and suggests implications for research and practice. Practical implications –Awareness of the mechanisms of customer logic will provide businesses with new perspectives on the role of the company in their customer’s lives. We propose that understanding the customer’s logic should represent the starting-point for the marketer’s business logic. Originality/value – The paper increases the understanding of how the customer’s logic underpins the customer-dominant business logic. By exploring consequences of applying a customer-dominant logic, we suggest further directions for theoretical and empirical research.

Re-Conceptualizing Value-Creation From Industrial Business Logic to Service Business Logic

There is an urgent interest in marketing to move away from neo-classical value definitions suggesting that value creation is a process of exchanging goods for money. In the present paper, value creation is conceptualized as an integration of two distinct, yet closely coupled processes. First, actors co-create what this paper calls an underlying basis of value. This is done by interactively re-configuring resources. By relating and combining resources, activity sets, and risks across actor boundaries in novel ways actors create joint productivity gains – a concept very similar to density (Normann, 2001). Second, actors engage in a process of signification and evaluation. Signification implies co-constructing the meaning and worth of joint productivity gains co-created through interactive resource re-configuration, as well as sharing those gains through a pricing mechanism as value to involved actors. The conceptual framework highlights an all-important dynamics associated with ´value creation´ and ´value´ - a dynamics the paper claims has eluded past marketing research. The paper argues that the framework presented here is appropriate for the interactive service perspective, where value and value creation are not objectively given, but depend on the power of involved actors´ socially constructed frames to mobilize resources across actor boundaries in ways that ´enhance system well-being´ (Vargo et al., 2008). The paper contributes to research on Service Logic, Service-Dominant Logic, and Service Science.

Towards Service Logic: The Unique Contribution of Value Co-Creation

The underpinning logic of value co-creation in service logic is analysed. It is observed that three of the ten foundational premises of the so-called service-dominant logic are problematic and do not support an understanding of value-co-creation and creation that is meaningful for theoretical development and decision making in business and marketing practice. Without a thorough understanding of the interaction concept, the locus and nature of value co-creation cannot be identified. Based on the analysis in the present article it is observed that a unique contribution of a service perspective on business (service logic) is not that customers always are co-creators of value, but that under certain circumstances the service provider gets opportunities to co-create value together with its customers. Finally, the three problematic premises are reformulated accordingly.

What Can A Service Logic Offer Marketing Theory

The goods-dominated marketing model has major shortcomings as a guiding marketing theory. Its marketing mix approach is mainly geared towards buying and does not include consumption as an integral part of marketing theory. Although it is during the process of consuming goods and services that value is generated for customers and the foundation for repeat purchasing and customer relationships are laid, this process is left outside the scope of marketing. The focus in service marketing is not on a product but on interactions in service encounters. Consumption has become an integral part of a holistic marketing model. Other than standardized goods-based value propositions can be better understood when taking a servicebased approach. It is concluded that marketing based on a goods logic is but a special case of marketing based on a service logic and applicable only in certain contexts with standardized products.

Probabilistic Analysis of Cracking Moment of Reinforced Concrete Beams

Probabilistic analysis of cracking moment from 22 simply supported reinforced concrete beams is performed. When the basic variables follow the distribution considered in this study, the cracking moment of a beam is found to follow a normal distribution. An expression is derived, for characteristic cracking moment, which will be useful in examining reinforced concrete beams for a limit state of cracking.

Marketing and the Logic of Service: Value Facilitation, Value Creation and Co-creation, and Their Marketing Implications

The discussion of a service-dominant logic has made the findings of decades of service marketing research a topic of interest for marketing at large. Some fundamental aspects of the logic such as value creation and its marketing implications are more complex than they have been treated as so far and need to be further developed to serve marketing theory and practice well. Following the analysis in the present article it is argued that although customers are co-producers in service processes, according to the value-in-use notion adopted in the contemporary marketing and management literature they are fundamentally the creators of value for themselves. Furthermore, it is concluded that although by providing goods and services as input resources into customers’ consumption and value-generating processes firms are fundamentally value facilitators, interactions with customers that exist or can be created enable firms to engage themselves with their customers’ processes and thereby they become co-creators of value with their customers. As marketing implications it is observed that 1) the goal of marketing is to support customers’ value creation, 2) following a service logic and due to the existence of interactions where the firm’s and the customer’s processes merge into an integrated joint value creation process, the firm is not restricted to making value propositions only, but can directly and actively influence the customer’s value fulfilment as well and extend its marketing process to include activities during customer-firm interactions, and 3) although all goods and services are consumed as service, customers’ purchasing decisions can be expected to be dependant of whether they have the skills and interest to use a resource, such as a good, as service or want to buy extended market offerings including process-related elements. Finally, the analysis concludes with five service logic theses.

Towards Service Logic: The Unique Contribution of Value Co-Creation

The underpinning logic of value co-creation in service logic is analysed. It is observed that three of the ten foundational premises of the so-called service-dominant logic are problematic and do not support an understanding of value-co-creation and creation that is meaningful for theoretical development and decision making in business and marketing practice. Without a thorough understanding of the interaction concept, the locus and nature of value co-creation cannot be identified. Based on the analysis in the present article it is observed that a unique contribution of a service perspective on business (service logic) is not that customers always are co-creators of value, but that under certain circumstances the service provider gets opportunities to co-create value together with its customers. Finally, the three problematic premises are reformulated accordingly.

A Cellular Array for Multivalued Logic Functions

An algebraic generalization of the well-known binary q-function array to a multivalued q-function array is presented. It is possible to associate tree-structure realizations for binary q-functions and multivalued q-functions. Synthesis of multivalued functions using this array is very simple