Estimation of the probability of congestion using Monte Carlo method in OPS networks

In networks with small buffers, such as optical packet switching based networks, the convolution approach is presented as one of the most accurate method used for the connection admission control. Admission control and resource management have been addressed in other works oriented to bursty traffic and ATM. This paper focuses on heterogeneous traffic in OPS based networks. Using heterogeneous traffic and bufferless networks the enhanced convolution approach is a good solution. However, both methods (CA and ECA) present a high computational cost for high number of connections. Two new mechanisms (UMCA and ISCA) based on Monte Carlo method are proposed to overcome this drawback. Simulation results show that our proposals achieve lower computational cost compared to enhanced convolution approach with an small stochastic error in the probability estimation

Lipoprotein lipase activity and mass, apolipoprotein C-II mass and polymorphisms of apolipoproteins E and A5 in subjects with prior acute hypertriglyceridaemic pancreatitis

BACKGROUND Severe hypertriglyceridaemia due to chylomicronemia may trigger an acute pancreatitis. However, the basic underlying mechanism is usually not well understood. We decided to analyze some proteins involved in the catabolism of triglyceride-rich lipoproteins in patients with severe hypertriglyceridaemia. METHODS Twenty-four survivors of acute hypertriglyceridaemic pancreatitis (cases) and 31 patients with severe hypertriglyceridaemia (controls) were included. Clinical and anthropometrical data, chylomicronaemia, lipoprotein profile, postheparin lipoprotein lipase mass and activity, hepatic lipase activity, apolipoprotein C II and CIII mass, apo E and A5 polymorphisms were assessed. RESULTS Only five cases were found to have LPL mass and activity deficiency, all of them thin and having the first episode in childhood. No cases had apolipoprotein CII deficiency. No significant differences were found between the non-deficient LPL cases and the controls in terms of obesity, diabetes, alcohol consumption, drug therapy, gender distribution, evidence of fasting chylomicronaemia, lipid levels, LPL activity and mass, hepatic lipase activity, CII and CIII mass or apo E polymorphisms. However, the SNP S19W of apo A5 tended to be more prevalent in cases than controls (40% vs. 23%, NS). CONCLUSION Primary defects in LPL and C-II are rare in survivors of acute hypertriglyceridaemic pancreatitis; lipase activity measurements should be restricted to those having their first episode during childhood.

Predictive ability of an early diagnostic guess in patients presenting with chest pain; a longitudinal descriptive study.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: The intuitive early diagnostic guess could play an important role in reaching a final diagnosis. However, no study to date has attempted to quantify the importance of general practitioners' (GPs) ability to correctly appraise the origin of chest pain within the first minutes of an encounter. METHODS: The validation study was nested in a multicentre cohort study with a one year follow-up and included 626 successive patients who presented with chest pain and were attended by 58 GPs in Western Switzerland. The early diagnostic guess was assessed prior to a patient's history being taken by a GP and was then compared to a diagnosis of chest pain observed over the next year. RESULTS: Using summary measures clustered at the GP's level, the early diagnostic guess was confirmed by further investigation in 51.0% (CI 95%; 49.4% to 52.5%) of patients presenting with chest pain. The early diagnostic guess was more accurate in patients with a life threatening illness (65.4%; CI 95% 64.5% to 66.3%) and in patients who did not feel anxious (62.9%; CI 95% 62.5% to 63.3%). The predictive abilities of an early diagnostic guess were consistent among GPs. CONCLUSIONS: The GPs early diagnostic guess was correct in one out of two patients presenting with chest pain. The probability of a correct guess was higher in patients with a life-threatening illness and in patients not feeling anxious about their pain.

Central nervous system involvement at first relapse in patients with acute promyelocytic leukemia treated with all-trans retinoic acid and anthracycline monochemotherapy without intrathecal prophylaxis.

BACKGROUND The prevalence of and risk factors for central nervous system recurrence in patients with acute promyelocytic leukemia are not well established and remain a controversial matter. DESIGN AND METHODS Between 1996 and 2005, 739 patients with newly diagnosed acute promyelocytic leukemia enrolled in two consecutive trials (PETHEMA LPA96 and LPA99) received induction therapy with all-trans retinoic acid and idarubicin. Consolidation therapy comprised three courses of anthracycline monochemotherapy (LPA96), with all-trans retinoic acid and reinforced doses of idarubicin in patients with an intermediate or high risk of relapse (LPA99). Central nervous system prophylaxis was not given. RESULTS Central nervous system relapse was documented in 11 patients. The 5-year cumulative incidence of central nervous system relapse was 1.7% (LPA96 3.2% and LPA99 1.2%; p=0.09). The cumulative incidence was 0%, 0.8%, and 5.5% in low-, intermediate-, and high-risk patients, respectively. Relapse risk score (p=0.0001) and the occurrence of central nervous system hemorrhage during induction (5-year cumulative incidence 18.7%, p=0.006) were independent risk factors for central nervous system relapse. CONCLUSIONS This study shows a low incidence of central nervous system relapse in patients with acute promyelocytic leukemia following therapy with all-trans retinoic acid and anthracycline without specific central nervous system prophylaxis. Central nervous system relapse was significantly associated with high white blood cell counts and prior central nervous system hemorrhage, which emerged as independent prognostic factors.

R-ESHAP as salvage therapy for patients with relapsed or refractory diffuse large B-cell lymphoma: the influence of prior exposure to rituximab on outcome. A GEL/TAMO study.

BACKGROUND The role of re-treatment with rituximab in aggressive B-cell lymphomas still needs to be defined. This study evaluated the influence of prior exposure to rituximab on response rates and survival in patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma treated with rituximab plus etoposide, cytarabine, cisplatinum and methylprednisolone (R-ESHAP). DESIGN AND METHODS We retrospectively analyzed 163 patients with relapsed or refractory diffuse large B-cell lymphoma who received R-ESHAP as salvage therapy with a curative purpose. Patients were divided into two groups according to whether rituximab had been administered (n=94, "R+" group) or not (n=69, "R-" group) prior to R-ESHAP. RESULTS Response rates were significantly higher in the R- group in the univariate but not in the multivariate analysis. In the analysis restricted to the R+ group, we observed very low complete remission and overall response rates in patients with primary refractory disease (8% and 33%, respectively), as compared to those in patients who were in first partial remission (41% and 86%) or who had relapsed disease (50% and 75%) (p<0.01 in both cases). Overall, 60% and 65% of patients in the R+ and R- groups, respectively, underwent stem-cell transplantation after the salvage therapy. With a median follow-up of 29 months (range, 6-84), patients in the R+ group had significantly worse progression-free survival (17% vs. 57% at 3 years, p<0.0001) and overall survival (38% v 67% at 3 years, p=0.0005) than patients in the R- group. Prior exposure to rituximab was also an independent adverse prognostic factor for both progression-free survival (RR: 2.0; 95% CI: 1.2-3.3, p=0.008) and overall survival (RR: 2.2; 95% CI: 1.3-3.9, p=0.004). CONCLUSIONS R-ESHAP was associated with a high response rate in patients who were not refractory to upfront rituximab-based chemotherapy. However, the survival outcome was poor for patients previously exposed to rituximab, as compared to in those who had not previously been treated with rituximab.

Uncertainty Quantification Of A Semi-Supervised Support Vector Regression Reservoir Model

Uncertainty quantification of petroleum reservoir models is one of the present challenges, which is usually approached with a wide range of geostatistical tools linked with statistical optimisation or/and inference algorithms. Recent advances in machine learning offer a novel approach to model spatial distribution of petrophysical properties in complex reservoirs alternative to geostatistics. The approach is based of semisupervised learning, which handles both ?labelled? observed data and ?unlabelled? data, which have no measured value but describe prior knowledge and other relevant data in forms of manifolds in the input space where the modelled property is continuous. Proposed semi-supervised Support Vector Regression (SVR) model has demonstrated its capability to represent realistic geological features and describe stochastic variability and non-uniqueness of spatial properties. On the other hand, it is able to capture and preserve key spatial dependencies such as connectivity of high permeability geo-bodies, which is often difficult in contemporary petroleum reservoir studies. Semi-supervised SVR as a data driven algorithm is designed to integrate various kind of conditioning information and learn dependences from it. The semi-supervised SVR model is able to balance signal/noise levels and control the prior belief in available data. In this work, stochastic semi-supervised SVR geomodel is integrated into Bayesian framework to quantify uncertainty of reservoir production with multiple models fitted to past dynamic observations (production history). Multiple history matched models are obtained using stochastic sampling and/or MCMC-based inference algorithms, which evaluate posterior probability distribution. Uncertainty of the model is described by posterior probability of the model parameters that represent key geological properties: spatial correlation size, continuity strength, smoothness/variability of spatial property distribution. The developed approach is illustrated with a fluvial reservoir case. The resulting probabilistic production forecasts are described by uncertainty envelopes. The paper compares the performance of the models with different combinations of unknown parameters and discusses sensitivity issues.

Inference about the number of contributors to a DNA mixture: Comparative analyses of a Bayesian network approach and the maximum allele count method.

In the forensic examination of DNA mixtures, the question of how to set the total number of contributors (N) presents a topic of ongoing interest. Part of the discussion gravitates around issues of bias, in particular when assessments of the number of contributors are not made prior to considering the genotypic configuration of potential donors. Further complication may stem from the observation that, in some cases, there may be numbers of contributors that are incompatible with the set of alleles seen in the profile of a mixed crime stain, given the genotype of a potential contributor. In such situations, procedures that take a single and fixed number contributors as their output can lead to inferential impasses. Assessing the number of contributors within a probabilistic framework can help avoiding such complication. Using elements of decision theory, this paper analyses two strategies for inference on the number of contributors. One procedure is deterministic and focuses on the minimum number of contributors required to 'explain' an observed set of alleles. The other procedure is probabilistic using Bayes' theorem and provides a probability distribution for a set of numbers of contributors, based on the set of observed alleles as well as their respective rates of occurrence. The discussion concentrates on mixed stains of varying quality (i.e., different numbers of loci for which genotyping information is available). A so-called qualitative interpretation is pursued since quantitative information such as peak area and height data are not taken into account. The competing procedures are compared using a standard scoring rule that penalizes the degree of divergence between a given agreed value for N, that is the number of contributors, and the actual value taken by N. Using only modest assumptions and a discussion with reference to a casework example, this paper reports on analyses using simulation techniques and graphical models (i.e., Bayesian networks) to point out that setting the number of contributors to a mixed crime stain in probabilistic terms is, for the conditions assumed in this study, preferable to a decision policy that uses categoric assumptions about N.

Probability distribution of the radionuclide half-lives

Power law distributions, a well-known model in the theory of real random variables, characterize a wide variety of natural and man made phenomena. The intensity of earthquakes, the word frequencies, the solar ares and the sizes of power outages are distributed according to a power law distribution. Recently, given the usage of power laws in the scientific community, several articles have been published criticizing the statistical methods used to estimate the power law behaviour and establishing new techniques to their estimation with proven reliability. The main object of the present study is to go in deep understanding of this kind of distribution and its analysis, and introduce the half-lives of the radioactive isotopes as a new candidate in the nature following a power law distribution, as well as a \canonical laboratory" to test statistical methods appropriate for long-tailed distributions.

Preinfarction angina prior to first myocardial infarction does not influence long-term prognosis: a retrospective study with subgroup analysis in elderly and diabetic patients.

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS Although prodromal angina occurring shortly before an acute myocardial infarction (MI) has protective effects against in-hospital complications, this effect has not been well documented after initial hospitalization, especially in older or diabetic patients. We examined whether angina 1 week before a first MI provides protection in these patients. METHODS A total of 290 consecutive patients, 143 elderly (>64 years of age) and 147 adults (<65 years of age), 68 of whom were diabetic (23.4%) and 222 nondiabetic (76.6%), were examined to assess the effect of preceding angina on long-term prognosis (56 months) after initial hospitalization for a first MI. RESULTS No significant differences were found in long-term complications after initial hospitalization in these adult and elderly patients according to whether or not they had prodromal angina (44.4% with angina vs 45.4% without in adults; 45.5% vs 58% in elderly, P < 0.2). Nor were differences found according to their diabetic status (61.5% with angina vs 72.7% without in diabetics; 37.3% vs 38.3% in nondiabetics; P = 0.4). CONCLUSION The occurrence of angina 1 week before a first MI does not confer long-term protection against cardiovascular complications after initial hospitalization in adult or elderly patients, whether or not they have diabetes.

Complications of laparoscopic gynecologic surgery.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES To analyze the frequency of complications during laparoscopic gynecologic surgery and identify associated risk factors. METHODS A descriptive observational study was performed between January 2000 and December 2012 and included all gynecologic laparoscopies performed at our center. Variables were recorded for patient characteristics, indication for surgery, length of hospital stay (in days), major and minor complications, and conversions to laparotomy. To identify risk factors and variables associated with complications, crude and adjusted odds ratios were calculated with unconditional logistic regression. RESULTS Of all 2888 laparoscopies included, most were procedures of moderate difficulty (adnexal surgery) (54.2%). The overall frequency of major complications was 1.93%, and that of minor complications was 4.29%. The level of technical difficulty and existence of prior abdominal surgery were associated with a higher risk of major complications and conversions to laparotomy. CONCLUSION Laparoscopic gynecologic surgery is associated with a low frequency of complications but is a procedure that is not without risk. Greater technical difficulty and prior surgery were factors associated with a higher frequency of complications.

Lipid changes in HIV-patients switching to the coformulated single tablet FTC/RPV/TDF (Eviplera®). Efficacy and safety analysis. GeSida Study 8114.

INTRODUCTION Rilpivirine (RPV) has a better lipid profile than efavirenz (EFV) in naïve patients (1). Switching to RPV may be convenient for many patients, while maintaining a good immunovirological control (2). The aim of this study was to analyze lipid changes in HIV-patients at 24 weeks after switching to Eviplera® (emtricitabine/RPV/tenofovir disoproxil fumarate [FTC/RPV/TDF]). MATERIALS AND METHODS Retrospective, multicentre study of a cohort of asymptomatic HIV-patients who switched from a regimen based on 2 nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTI)+protease inhibitor (PI)/non nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) or ritonavir boosted PI monotherapy to Eviplera® during February-December, 2013; all had undetectable HIV viral load for ≥3 months prior to switching. Patients with previous failures on antiretroviral therapy (ART) including TDF and/or FTC/3TC, with genotype tests showing resistance to components of Eviplera®, or who had changed the third drug of the ART during the study period were excluded. Changes in lipid profile and cardiovascular risk (CVR), and efficacy and safety at 24 weeks were analyzed. RESULTS Among 305 patients included in the study, 298 were analyzed (7 cases were excluded due to lack of data). Men 81.2%, mean age 44.5 years, 75.8% of HIV sexually transmitted. 233 (78.2%) patients switched from a regimen based on 2 NRTI+NNRTI (90.5% EFV/FTC/TDF). The most frequent reasons for switching were central nervous system (CNS) adverse events (31.0%), convenience (27.6%) and metabolic disorders (23.2%). At this time, 293 patients have reached 24 weeks: 281 (95.9%) have continued Eviplera®, 6 stopped it (3 adverse events, 2 virologic failures, 1 discontinuation) and 6 have been lost to follow up. Lipid profiles of 283 cases were available at 24 weeks and mean (mg/dL) baseline vs 24 weeks are: total cholesterol (193 vs 169; p=0.0001), HDL-c (49 vs 45; p=0.0001), LDL-c (114 vs 103; p=0.001), tryglycerides (158 vs 115; p=0.0001), total cholesterol to HDL-c ratio (4.2 vs 4.1; p=0.3). CVR decreased (8.7 vs 7.5%; p= 0.0001). CD4 counts were similar to baseline (653 vs 674 cells/µL; p=0.08), and 274 (96.8%) patients maintained viral suppression. CONCLUSIONS At 24 weeks after switching to Eviplera®, lipid profile and CVR improved while maintaining a good immunovirological control. Most subjects switched to Eviplera® from a regimen based on NNRTI, mainly EFV/FTC/TDF. CNS adverse events, convenience and metabolic disorders were the most frequent reasons for switching.

Evaluating anti-Orthopoxvirus antibodies in individuals from Brazilian rural areas prior to the bovine vaccinia era

Vaccinia virus naturally circulates in Brazil and is the causative agent of a zoonotic disease known as bovine vaccinia (BV). We retrospectively evaluated two populations from the Amazon and Southeast Regions. BV outbreaks had not been reported in these regions before sample collection. Neutralising antibodies were found in 13 individuals (n = 132) with titres ranging from 100 ≥ 6,400 neutralising units/mL. Univariate analysis identified age and vaccination as statistically significant risk factors in individuals from the Southeast Region. The absence of detectable antibodies in vaccinated individuals raises questions about the protection of smallpox vaccine years after vaccination and reinforces the need for surveillance of Orthopoxvirus in Brazilian populations without evidence of previous outbreaks.

Circulating prolactin and in situ breast cancer risk in the European EPIC cohort: a case-control study.

INTRODUCTION The relationship between circulating prolactin and invasive breast cancer has been investigated previously, but the association between prolactin levels and in situ breast cancer risk has received less attention. METHODS We analysed the relationship between pre-diagnostic prolactin levels and the risk of in situ breast cancer overall, and by menopausal status and use of postmenopausal hormone therapy (HT) at blood donation. Conditional logistic regression was used to assess this association in a case-control study nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort, including 307 in situ breast cancer cases and their matched control subjects. RESULTS We found a significant positive association between higher circulating prolactin levels and risk of in situ breast cancer among all women [pre-and postmenopausal combined, ORlog2 = 1.35 (95%CI 1.04-1.76), Ptrend = 0.03]. No statistically significant heterogeneity was found between prolactin levels and in situ cancer risk by menopausal status (Phet = 0.98) or baseline HT use (Phet = 0.20), although the observed association was more pronounced among postmenopausal women using HT compared to non-users (Ptrend = 0.06 vs Ptrend = 0.35). In subgroup analyses, the observed positive association was strongest in women diagnosed with in situ breast tumors <4 years compared to ≥4 years after blood donation (Ptrend = 0.01 vs Ptrend = 0.63; Phet = 0.04) and among nulliparous women compared to parous women (Ptrend = 0.03 vs Ptrend = 0.15; Phet = 0.07). CONCLUSIONS Our data extends prior research linking prolactin and invasive breast cancer to the outcome of in situ breast tumours and shows that higher circulating prolactin is associated with increased risk of in situ breast cancer.

The subjectivist interpretation of probability and the problem of individualisation in forensic science

This paper presents and discusses further aspects of the subjectivist interpretation of probability (also known as the 'personalist' view of probabilities) as initiated in earlier forensic and legal literature. It shows that operational devices to elicit subjective probabilities - in particular the so-called scoring rules - provide additional arguments in support of the standpoint according to which categorical claims of forensic individualisation do not follow from a formal analysis under that view of probability theory.