Classification and regression tree (CART) model to predict pulmonary tuberculosis in hospitalized patients

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) remains a public health issue worldwide. The lack of specific clinical symptoms to diagnose TB makes the correct decision to admit patients to respiratory isolation a difficult task for the clinician. Isolation of patients without the disease is common and increases health costs. Decision models for the diagnosis of TB in patients attending hospitals can increase the quality of care and decrease costs, without the risk of hospital transmission. We present a predictive model for predicting pulmonary TB in hospitalized patients in a high prevalence area in order to contribute to a more rational use of isolation rooms without increasing the risk of transmission. Methods: Cross sectional study of patients admitted to CFFH from March 2003 to December 2004. A classification and regression tree (CART) model was generated and validated. The area under the ROC curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values were used to evaluate the performance of model. Validation of the model was performed with a different sample of patients admitted to the same hospital from January to December 2005. Results: We studied 290 patients admitted with clinical suspicion of TB. Diagnosis was confirmed in 26.5% of them. Pulmonary TB was present in 83.7% of the patients with TB (62.3% with positive sputum smear) and HIV/AIDS was present in 56.9% of patients. The validated CART model showed sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of 60.00%, 76.16%, 33.33%, and 90.55%, respectively. The AUC was 79.70%. Conclusions: The CART model developed for these hospitalized patients with clinical suspicion of TB had fair to good predictive performance for pulmonary TB. The most important variable for prediction of TB diagnosis was chest radiograph results. Prospective validation is still necessary, but our model offer an alternative for decision making in whether to isolate patients with clinical suspicion of TB in tertiary health facilities in countries with limited resources.

DengueTools: innovative tools and strategies for the surveillance and control of dengue

Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne viral disease estimated to cause about 230 million infections worldwide every year, of which 25,000 are fatal. Global incidence has risen rapidly in recent decades with some 3.6 billion people, over half of the world's population, now at risk, mainly in urban centres of the tropics and subtropics. Demographic and societal changes, in particular urbanization, globalization, and increased international travel, are major contributors to the rise in incidence and geographic expansion of dengue infections. Major research gaps continue to hamper the control of dengue. The European Commission launched a call under the 7th Framework Programme with the title of 'Comprehensive control of Dengue fever under changing climatic conditions'. Fourteen partners from several countries in Europe, Asia, and South America formed a consortium named 'DengueTools' to respond to the call to achieve better diagnosis, surveillance, prevention, and predictive models and improve our understanding of the spread of dengue to previously uninfected regions (including Europe) in the context of globalization and climate change. The consortium comprises 12 work packages to address a set of research questions in three areas: Research area 1: Develop a comprehensive early warning and surveillance system that has predictive capability for epidemic dengue and benefits from novel tools for laboratory diagnosis and vector monitoring. Research area 2: Develop novel strategies to prevent dengue in children. Research area 3: Understand and predict the risk of global spread of dengue, in particular the risk of introduction and establishment in Europe, within the context of parameters of vectorial capacity, global mobility, and climate change. In this paper, we report on the rationale and specific study objectives of 'DengueTools'. DengueTools is funded under the Health theme of the Seventh Framework Programme of the European Community, Grant Agreement Number: 282589 Dengue Tools.

Independent predictors and a prognostic model for surgical outcome in refractory frontal lobe epilepsy

Purpose: Refractory frontal lobe epilepsy (FLE) remains one of the most challenging surgically remediable epilepsy syndromes. Nevertheless, definition of independent predictors and predictive models of postsurgical seizure outcome remains poorly explored in FLE. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed data from 70 consecutive patients with refractory FLE submitted to surgical treatment at our center from July 1994 to December 2006. Univariate results were submitted to logistic regression models and Cox proportional hazards regression to identify isolated risk factors for poor surgical results and to construct predictive models for surgical outcome in FLE. Results: From 70 patients submitted to surgery, 45 patients (64%) had favorable outcome and 37 (47%) became seizure free. Isolated risk factors for poor surgical outcome are expressed in hazard ratio (H.R.) and were time of epilepsy (H.R.=4.2; 95% C.I.=.1.5-11.7; p=0.006), ictal EEG recruiting rhythm (H.R. = 2.9; 95% C.I. = 1.1-7.7; p=0.033); normal MRI (H.R. = 4.8; 95% C.I. = 1.4-16.6; p = 0.012), and MRI with lesion involving eloquent cortex (H.R. = 3.8; 95% C.I. = 1.2-12.0; p = 0.021). Based on these variables and using a logistic regression model we constructed a model that correctly predicted long-term surgical outcome in up to 80% of patients. Conclusion: Among independent risk factors for postsurgical seizure outcome, epilepsy duration is a potentially modifiable factor that could impact surgical outcome in FLE. Early diagnosis, presence of an MRI lesion not involving eloquent cortex, and ictal EEG without recruited rhythm independently predicted favorable outcome in this series. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting smear negative pulmonary tuberculosis with classification trees and logistic regression: a cross-sectional study

Abstract Background Smear negative pulmonary tuberculosis (SNPT) accounts for 30% of pulmonary tuberculosis cases reported yearly in Brazil. This study aimed to develop a prediction model for SNPT for outpatients in areas with scarce resources. Methods The study enrolled 551 patients with clinical-radiological suspicion of SNPT, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The original data was divided into two equivalent samples for generation and validation of the prediction models. Symptoms, physical signs and chest X-rays were used for constructing logistic regression and classification and regression tree models. From the logistic regression, we generated a clinical and radiological prediction score. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve, sensitivity, and specificity were used to evaluate the model's performance in both generation and validation samples. Results It was possible to generate predictive models for SNPT with sensitivity ranging from 64% to 71% and specificity ranging from 58% to 76%. Conclusion The results suggest that those models might be useful as screening tools for estimating the risk of SNPT, optimizing the utilization of more expensive tests, and avoiding costs of unnecessary anti-tuberculosis treatment. Those models might be cost-effective tools in a health care network with hierarchical distribution of scarce resources.

A fragment-based approach for the in silico prediction of blood-brain barrier permeation

Blood-brain barrier (BBB) permeation is an essential property for drugs that act in the central nervous system (CNS) for the treatment of human diseases, such as epilepsy, depression, Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson disease, schizophrenia, among others. In the present work, quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) studies were conducted for the development and validation of in silico models for the prediction of BBB permeation. The data set used has substantial chemical diversity and a relatively wide distribution of property values. The generated QSPR models showed good statistical parameters and were successfully employed for the prediction of a test set containing 48 compounds. The predictive models presented herein are useful in the identification, selection and design of new drug candidates having improved pharmacokinetic properties.

Modelo adaptativo de conforto para avaliação in loco de espaços urbanos abertos

Espaços urbanos abertos possibilitam menor controle das variáveis ambientais do que espaços fechados, que apresentam maior grau de confinamento. Por outro lado, as possibilidades de adaptação dos usuários nos espaços abertos acabam sendo maiores devido aos seus usos predominantes. O objetivo deste artigo é verificar possíveis meios de adaptação térmica, tais como atividades, vestimentas e aclimatação, para a proposição de ajustes na Temperatura Equivalente de Globo, que é utilizada para avaliação in loco de espaços urbanos abertos. Foram realizados levantamentos de campo com quantificação de variáveis ambientais e aplicação de questionários, e comparação dos resultados de modelos preditivos e diferentes bases empíricas. O estudo considerou diferentes atividades físicas, diferentes conjuntos de vestimenta e diferentes condições de aclimatação. Os resultados indicaram a necessidade de ampliações na base empírica para os dados relativos às atividades e vestimentas. Com relação à aclimatação, considerando a temperatura do ar média horária dos trinta dias anteriores a que estavam expostos os entrevistados, sua verificação demonstrou que, dentro dos limites do estudo, a abordagem adotada de propor ajustes na Temperatura Equivalente de Globo, é adequada,. Os resultados do modelo ajustado com base nos resultados de aclimatação dos entrevistados apresentaram correlação mais alta com as bases empíricas do que os resultados do modelo originalmente proposto.

Modelizzazione spazio-temporale delle dinamiche di uso del suolo ed analisi comparativa di differenti approcci predittivi. Uso integrato di SIG e telerilevamento nello studio dei processi di deforestazione nella regione La Joyanca in Peten, Guatemala

L’uso frequente dei modelli predittivi per l’analisi di sistemi complessi, naturali o artificiali, sta cambiando il tradizionale approccio alle problematiche ambientali e di rischio. Il continuo miglioramento delle capacità di elaborazione dei computer facilita l’utilizzo e la risoluzione di metodi numerici basati su una discretizzazione spazio-temporale che permette una modellizzazione predittiva di sistemi reali complessi, riproducendo l’evoluzione dei loro patterns spaziali ed calcolando il grado di precisione della simulazione. In questa tesi presentiamo una applicazione di differenti metodi predittivi (Geomatico, Reti Neurali, Land Cover Modeler e Dinamica EGO) in un’area test del Petén, Guatemala. Durante gli ultimi decenni questa regione, inclusa nella Riserva di Biosfera Maya, ha conosciuto una rapida crescita demografica ed un’incontrollata pressione sulle sue risorse naturali. L’area test puó essere suddivisa in sotto-regioni caratterizzate da differenti dinamiche di uso del suolo. Comprendere e quantificare queste differenze permette una migliore approssimazione del sistema reale; é inoltre necessario integrare tutti i parametri fisici e socio-economici, per una rappresentazione più completa della complessità dell’impatto antropico. Data l’assenza di informazioni dettagliate sull’area di studio, quasi tutti i dati sono stati ricavati dall’elaborazione di 11 immagini ETM+, TM e SPOT; abbiamo poi realizzato un’analisi multitemporale dei cambi uso del suolo passati e costruito l’input per alimentare i modelli predittivi. I dati del 1998 e 2000 sono stati usati per la fase di calibrazione per simulare i cambiamenti nella copertura terrestre del 2003, scelta come data di riferimento per la validazione dei risultati. Quest’ultima permette di evidenziare le qualità ed i limiti per ogni modello nelle differenti sub-regioni.

Phenotypic characterization of the epithelial and myoepithelial components in canine and feline mammary tumours

In veterinary medicine, the ability to classify mammary tumours based on the molecular profile and also determine whether the immunophenotype of the regional lymph node and/or systemic metastases is equal to that of the primary tumor may be predictive on the estimation of the effectiveness of various cancer treatments that can be scheduled. Therefore, aims, developed as projects, of the past three years have been (1) to define the molecular phenotype of feline mammary carcinomas and their lymph node metastases according to a previous modified algorithm and to demonstrate the concordance or discordance of the molecular profile between the primary tumour and lymph node metastasis, (2) to analyze, in female dogs, the relationship between the primary mammary tumor and its lymph node metastasis based on immunohistochemical molecular characterization in order to develop the most specific prognostic-predictive models and targeted therapeutic options, and (3) to evaluate the molecular trend of cancer from its primary location to systemic metastases in three cats and two dogs with mammary tumors. The studies on mammary tumours, particularly in dogs, have drawn gradually increasing attention not exclusively to the epithelial component, but also to the myoepithelial cells. The lack of complete information on a valid panel of markers for the identification of these cells in the normal and neoplastic mammary gland and lack of investigation of immunohistochemical changes from an epithelial to a mesenchymal phenotype, was the aim of a parallel research. While investigating mammary tumours, it was noticed that only few studies had focused on the expression of CD117. Therefore, it was decided to further deepen the knowledge in order to characterize the immunohistochemical staining of CD117 in normal and neoplastic mammary tissue of the dog, and to correlate CD117 immunohistochemical results with mammary histotype, histological stage (invasiveness), Ki67 index and patient survival time.

Evaluation of 3D cell culture systems for host-pathogen interaction studies

Traditional cell culture models have limitations in extrapolating functional mechanisms that underlie strategies of microbial virulence. Indeed during the infection the pathogens adapt to different tissue-specific environmental factors. The development of in vitro models resembling human tissue physiology might allow the replacement of inaccurate or aberrant animal models. Three-dimensional (3D) cell culture systems are more reliable and more predictive models that can be used for the meaningful dissection of host–pathogen interactions. The lung and gut mucosae often represent the first site of exposure to pathogens and provide a physical barrier against their entry. Within this context, the tracheobronchial and small intestine tract were modelled by tissue engineering approach. The main work was focused on the development and the extensive characterization of a human organotypic airway model, based on a mechanically supported co-culture of normal primary cells. The regained morphological features, the retrieved environmental factors and the presence of specific epithelial subsets resembled the native tissue organization. In addition, the respiratory model enabled the modular insertion of interesting cell types, such as innate immune cells or multipotent stromal cells, showing a functional ability to release pertinent cytokines differentially. Furthermore this model responded imitating known events occurring during the infection by Non-typeable H. influenzae. Epithelial organoid models, mimicking the small intestine tract, were used for a different explorative analysis of tissue-toxicity. Further experiments led to detection of a cell population targeted by C. difficile Toxin A and suggested a role in the impairment of the epithelial homeostasis by the bacterial virulence machinery. The described cell-centered strategy can afford critical insights in the evaluation of the host defence and pathogenic mechanisms. The application of these two models may provide an informing step that more coherently defines relevant molecular interactions happening during the infection.

Sviluppo di metodologie innovative di supporto decisionale alla progettazione basate su indicatori di prestazione

Il progetto di ricerca è finalizzato allo sviluppo di una metodologia innovativa di supporto decisionale nel processo di selezione tra alternative progettuali, basata su indicatori di prestazione. In particolare il lavoro si è focalizzato sulla definizione d’indicatori atti a supportare la decisione negli interventi di sbottigliamento di un impianto di processo. Sono stati sviluppati due indicatori, “bottleneck indicators”, che permettono di valutare la reale necessità dello sbottigliamento, individuando le cause che impediscono la produzione e lo sfruttamento delle apparecchiature. Questi sono stati validati attraverso l’applicazione all’analisi di un intervento su un impianto esistente e verificando che lo sfruttamento delle apparecchiature fosse correttamente individuato. Definita la necessità dell’intervento di sbottigliamento, è stato affrontato il problema della selezione tra alternative di processo possibili per realizzarlo. È stato applicato alla scelta un metodo basato su indicatori di sostenibilità che consente di confrontare le alternative considerando non solo il ritorno economico degli investimenti ma anche gli impatti su ambiente e sicurezza, e che è stato ulteriormente sviluppato in questa tesi. Sono stati definiti due indicatori, “area hazard indicators”, relativi alle emissioni fuggitive, per integrare questi aspetti nell’analisi della sostenibilità delle alternative. Per migliorare l’accuratezza nella quantificazione degli impatti è stato sviluppato un nuovo modello previsionale atto alla stima delle emissioni fuggitive di un impianto, basato unicamente sui dati disponibili in fase progettuale, che tiene conto delle tipologie di sorgenti emettitrici, dei loro meccanismi di perdita e della manutenzione. Validato mediante il confronto con dati sperimentali di un impianto produttivo, si è dimostrato che tale metodo è indispensabile per un corretto confronto delle alternative poiché i modelli esistenti sovrastimano eccessivamente le emissioni reali. Infine applicando gli indicatori ad un impianto esistente si è dimostrato che sono fondamentali per semplificare il processo decisionale, fornendo chiare e precise indicazioni impiegando un numero limitato di informazioni per ricavarle.

Deep resequencing of GWAS loci identifies independent rare variants associated with inflammatory bowel disease

More than 1,000 susceptibility loci have been identified through genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of common variants; however, the specific genes and full allelic spectrum of causal variants underlying these findings have not yet been defined. Here we used pooled next-generation sequencing to study 56 genes from regions associated with Crohn's disease in 350 cases and 350 controls. Through follow-up genotyping of 70 rare and low-frequency protein-altering variants in nine independent case-control series (16,054 Crohn's disease cases, 12,153 ulcerative colitis cases and 17,575 healthy controls), we identified four additional independent risk factors in NOD2, two additional protective variants in IL23R, a highly significant association with a protective splice variant in CARD9 (P < 1 × 10(-16), odds ratio ≈ 0.29) and additional associations with coding variants in IL18RAP, CUL2, C1orf106, PTPN22 and MUC19. We extend the results of successful GWAS by identifying new, rare and probably functional variants that could aid functional experiments and predictive models.

MULTIPLE MODEL EVALUATION ABSENT THE GOLD STANDARD VIA MODEL COMBINATION

We describe a method for evaluating an ensemble of predictive models given a sample of observations comprising the model predictions and the outcome event measured with error. Our formulation allows us to simultaneously estimate measurement error parameters, true outcome — aka the gold standard — and a relative weighting of the predictive scores. We describe conditions necessary to estimate the gold standard and for these estimates to be calibrated and detail how our approach is related to, but distinct from, standard model combination techniques. We apply our approach to data from a study to evaluate a collection of BRCA1/BRCA2 gene mutation prediction scores. In this example, genotype is measured with error by one or more genetic assays. We estimate true genotype for each individual in the dataset, operating characteristics of the commonly used genotyping procedures and a relative weighting of the scores. Finally, we compare the scores against the gold standard genotype and find that Mendelian scores are, on average, the more refined and better calibrated of those considered and that the comparison is sensitive to measurement error in the gold standard.

Dosimetric impact of geometric errors due to respiratory motion prediction on dynamic multileaf collimator-based four-dimensional radiation delivery

The synchronization of dynamic multileaf collimator (DMLC) response with respiratory motion is critical to ensure the accuracy of DMLC-based four dimensional (4D) radiation delivery. In practice, however, a finite time delay (response time) between the acquisition of tumor position and multileaf collimator response necessitates predictive models of respiratory tumor motion to synchronize radiation delivery. Predicting a complex process such as respiratory motion introduces geometric errors, which have been reported in several publications. However, the dosimetric effect of such errors on 4D radiation delivery has not yet been investigated. Thus, our aim in this work was to quantify the dosimetric effects of geometric error due to prediction under several different conditions. Conformal and intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) plans for a lung patient were generated for anterior-posterior/posterior-anterior (AP/PA) beam arrangements at 6 and 18 MV energies to provide planned dose distributions. Respiratory motion data was obtained from 60 diaphragm-motion fluoroscopy recordings from five patients. A linear adaptive filter was employed to predict the tumor position. The geometric error of prediction was defined as the absolute difference between predicted and actual positions at each diaphragm position. Distributions of geometric error of prediction were obtained for all of the respiratory motion data. Planned dose distributions were then convolved with distributions for the geometric error of prediction to obtain convolved dose distributions. The dosimetric effect of such geometric errors was determined as a function of several variables: response time (0-0.6 s), beam energy (6/18 MV), treatment delivery (3D/4D), treatment type (conformal/IMRT), beam direction (AP/PA), and breathing training type (free breathing/audio instruction/visual feedback). Dose difference and distance-to-agreement analysis was employed to quantify results. Based on our data, the dosimetric impact of prediction (a) increased with response time, (b) was larger for 3D radiation therapy as compared with 4D radiation therapy, (c) was relatively insensitive to change in beam energy and beam direction, (d) was greater for IMRT distributions as compared with conformal distributions, (e) was smaller than the dosimetric impact of latency, and (f) was greatest for respiration motion with audio instructions, followed by visual feedback and free breathing. Geometric errors of prediction that occur during 4D radiation delivery introduce dosimetric errors that are dependent on several factors, such as response time, treatment-delivery type, and beam energy. Even for relatively small response times of 0.6 s into the future, dosimetric errors due to prediction could approach delivery errors when respiratory motion is not accounted for at all. To reduce the dosimetric impact, better predictive models and/or shorter response times are required.

Development and modeling of thermally conductive resins for fuel cell bipolar plate applications

Thermally conductive resins are a class of material that show promise in many different applications. One growing field for their use is in the area of bipolar plate technology for fuel cell applications. In this work, a LCP was mixed with different types of carbon fillers to determine the effects of the individual carbon fillers on the thermal conductivity of the composite resin. In addition, mathematical modeling was performed on the thermal conductivity data with the goal of developing predictive models for the thermal conductivity of highly filled composite resins.

DEVELOPMENT OF CONFOCAL IMAGING TECHNIQUES FOR PROBING INTERFACIAL DYNAMICS IN MICROSCALE, GAS-LIQUID, TWO-PHASE FLOW

Micro-scale, two-phase flow is found in a variety of devices such as Lab-on-a-chip, bio-chips, micro-heat exchangers, and fuel cells. Knowledge of the fluid behavior near the dynamic gas-liquid interface is required for developing accurate predictive models. Light is distorted near a curved gas-liquid interface preventing accurate measurement of interfacial shape and internal liquid velocities. This research focused on the development of experimental methods designed to isolate and probe dynamic liquid films and measure velocity fields near a moving gas-liquid interface. A high-speed, reflectance, swept-field confocal (RSFC) imaging system was developed for imaging near curved surfaces. Experimental studies of dynamic gas-liquid interface of micro-scale, two-phase flow were conducted in three phases. Dynamic liquid film thicknesses of segmented, two-phase flow were measured using the RSFC and compared to a classic film thickness deposition model. Flow fields near a steadily moving meniscus were measured using RSFC and particle tracking velocimetry. The RSFC provided high speed imaging near the menisci without distortion caused the gas-liquid interface. Finally, interfacial morphology for internal two-phase flow and droplet evaporation were measured using interferograms produced by the RSFC imaging technique. Each technique can be used independently or simultaneously when.