Development of a particle number and particle mass emissions inventory for an urban fleet : a study in South-East Queensland

Motor vehicles are a major source of gaseous and particulate matter pollution in urban areas, particularly of ultrafine sized particles (diameters < 0.1 µm). Exposure to particulate matter has been found to be associated with serious health effects, including respiratory and cardiovascular disease, and mortality. Particle emissions generated by motor vehicles span a very broad size range (from around 0.003-10 µm) and are measured as different subsets of particle mass concentrations or particle number count. However, there exist scientific challenges in analysing and interpreting the large data sets on motor vehicle emission factors, and no understanding is available of the application of different particle metrics as a basis for air quality regulation. To date a comprehensive inventory covering the broad size range of particles emitted by motor vehicles, and which includes particle number, does not exist anywhere in the world. This thesis covers research related to four important and interrelated aspects pertaining to particulate matter generated by motor vehicle fleets. These include the derivation of suitable particle emission factors for use in transport modelling and health impact assessments; quantification of motor vehicle particle emission inventories; investigation of the particle characteristic modality within particle size distributions as a potential for developing air quality regulation; and review and synthesis of current knowledge on ultrafine particles as it relates to motor vehicles; and the application of these aspects to the quantification, control and management of motor vehicle particle emissions. In order to quantify emissions in terms of a comprehensive inventory, which covers the full size range of particles emitted by motor vehicle fleets, it was necessary to derive a suitable set of particle emission factors for different vehicle and road type combinations for particle number, particle volume, PM1, PM2.5 and PM1 (mass concentration of particles with aerodynamic diameters < 1 µm, < 2.5 µm and < 10 µm respectively). The very large data set of emission factors analysed in this study were sourced from measurement studies conducted in developed countries, and hence the derived set of emission factors are suitable for preparing inventories in other urban regions of the developed world. These emission factors are particularly useful for regions with a lack of measurement data to derive emission factors, or where experimental data are available but are of insufficient scope. The comprehensive particle emissions inventory presented in this thesis is the first published inventory of tailpipe particle emissions prepared for a motor vehicle fleet, and included the quantification of particle emissions covering the full size range of particles emitted by vehicles, based on measurement data. The inventory quantified particle emissions measured in terms of particle number and different particle mass size fractions. It was developed for the urban South-East Queensland fleet in Australia, and included testing the particle emission implications of future scenarios for different passenger and freight travel demand. The thesis also presents evidence of the usefulness of examining modality within particle size distributions as a basis for developing air quality regulations; and finds evidence to support the relevance of introducing a new PM1 mass ambient air quality standard for the majority of environments worldwide. The study found that a combination of PM1 and PM10 standards are likely to be a more discerning and suitable set of ambient air quality standards for controlling particles emitted from combustion and mechanically-generated sources, such as motor vehicles, than the current mass standards of PM2.5 and PM10. The study also reviewed and synthesized existing knowledge on ultrafine particles, with a specific focus on those originating from motor vehicles. It found that motor vehicles are significant contributors to both air pollution and ultrafine particles in urban areas, and that a standardized measurement procedure is not currently available for ultrafine particles. The review found discrepancies exist between outcomes of instrumentation used to measure ultrafine particles; that few data is available on ultrafine particle chemistry and composition, long term monitoring; characterization of their spatial and temporal distribution in urban areas; and that no inventories for particle number are available for motor vehicle fleets. This knowledge is critical for epidemiological studies and exposure-response assessment. Conclusions from this review included the recommendation that ultrafine particles in populated urban areas be considered a likely target for future air quality regulation based on particle number, due to their potential impacts on the environment. The research in this PhD thesis successfully integrated the elements needed to quantify and manage motor vehicle fleet emissions, and its novelty relates to the combining of expertise from two distinctly separate disciplines - from aerosol science and transport modelling. The new knowledge and concepts developed in this PhD research provide never before available data and methods which can be used to develop comprehensive, size-resolved inventories of motor vehicle particle emissions, and air quality regulations to control particle emissions to protect the health and well-being of current and future generations.

Addressing issues in sparseness, ecological bias and formulation of the adjacency matrix in Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis of disease counts

The main objective of this PhD was to further develop Bayesian spatio-temporal models (specifically the Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) class of models), for the analysis of sparse disease outcomes such as birth defects. The motivation for the thesis arose from problems encountered when analyzing a large birth defect registry in New South Wales. The specific components and related research objectives of the thesis were developed from gaps in the literature on current formulations of the CAR model, and health service planning requirements. Data from a large probabilistically-linked database from 1990 to 2004, consisting of fields from two separate registries: the Birth Defect Registry (BDR) and Midwives Data Collection (MDC) were used in the analyses in this thesis. The main objective was split into smaller goals. The first goal was to determine how the specification of the neighbourhood weight matrix will affect the smoothing properties of the CAR model, and this is the focus of chapter 6. Secondly, I hoped to evaluate the usefulness of incorporating a zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) component as well as a shared-component model in terms of modeling a sparse outcome, and this is carried out in chapter 7. The third goal was to identify optimal sampling and sample size schemes designed to select individual level data for a hybrid ecological spatial model, and this is done in chapter 8. Finally, I wanted to put together the earlier improvements to the CAR model, and along with demographic projections, provide forecasts for birth defects at the SLA level. Chapter 9 describes how this is done. For the first objective, I examined a series of neighbourhood weight matrices, and showed how smoothing the relative risk estimates according to similarity by an important covariate (i.e. maternal age) helped improve the model’s ability to recover the underlying risk, as compared to the traditional adjacency (specifically the Queen) method of applying weights. Next, to address the sparseness and excess zeros commonly encountered in the analysis of rare outcomes such as birth defects, I compared a few models, including an extension of the usual Poisson model to encompass excess zeros in the data. This was achieved via a mixture model, which also encompassed the shared component model to improve on the estimation of sparse counts through borrowing strength across a shared component (e.g. latent risk factor/s) with the referent outcome (caesarean section was used in this example). Using the Deviance Information Criteria (DIC), I showed how the proposed model performed better than the usual models, but only when both outcomes shared a strong spatial correlation. The next objective involved identifying the optimal sampling and sample size strategy for incorporating individual-level data with areal covariates in a hybrid study design. I performed extensive simulation studies, evaluating thirteen different sampling schemes along with variations in sample size. This was done in the context of an ecological regression model that incorporated spatial correlation in the outcomes, as well as accommodating both individual and areal measures of covariates. Using the Average Mean Squared Error (AMSE), I showed how a simple random sample of 20% of the SLAs, followed by selecting all cases in the SLAs chosen, along with an equal number of controls, provided the lowest AMSE. The final objective involved combining the improved spatio-temporal CAR model with population (i.e. women) forecasts, to provide 30-year annual estimates of birth defects at the Statistical Local Area (SLA) level in New South Wales, Australia. The projections were illustrated using sixteen different SLAs, representing the various areal measures of socio-economic status and remoteness. A sensitivity analysis of the assumptions used in the projection was also undertaken. By the end of the thesis, I will show how challenges in the spatial analysis of rare diseases such as birth defects can be addressed, by specifically formulating the neighbourhood weight matrix to smooth according to a key covariate (i.e. maternal age), incorporating a ZIP component to model excess zeros in outcomes and borrowing strength from a referent outcome (i.e. caesarean counts). An efficient strategy to sample individual-level data and sample size considerations for rare disease will also be presented. Finally, projections in birth defect categories at the SLA level will be made.

Botanical matrix

Botanical matrix is a graphic map produced via a process involving an initial site installation (350 m contour transect), a botanical survey and photographic documentation of species. The site is a housing subdivision at Point Henry, on the SE coast of Western Australia which is a landscape which is host the most botanically diverse vegetation found worldwide - known locally as 'kwongan'. Notoriously difficult vegetation to measure and map, kwongan is a visual 'engima', for paradoxically it appears to the lay person as visually bland and highly homogenous. There is thus is a critical need for the development of new forms of representation which overcome the barriers between the perception and reality of this botanical condition. Botanical Matrix is one result of the author's research which seeks to address this important problem.

The osteogenic differentiation of adipose tissue-derived precursor cells in A 3D scaffold/matrix environment

Abstract: This paper details an in-vitro study using human adipose tissue-derived precursor/stem cells (ADSCs) in three-dimensional (3D) tissue culture systems. ADSCs from 3 donors were seeded onto NaOH-treated medical grade polycaprolactone-tricalcium phosphate (mPCL-TCP) scaffolds with two different matrix components; fibrin glue and lyophilized collagen. ADSCs within these scaffolds were then induced to differentiate along the osteogenic lineage for a 28-day period and various assays and imaging techniques were performed at Day 1, 7, 14, 21 and 28 to assess and compare the ADSC’s adhesion, viability, proliferation, metabolism and differentiation along the osteogenic lineage when cultured in the different scaffold/matrix systems. The ADSC cells were proliferative in both collagen and fibrin mPCL-TCP scaffold systems with a consistently higher cell number (by comparing DNA amounts) in the induced group over the non-induced groups for both scaffold systems. In response to osteogenic induction, these ADSCs expressed elevated osteocalcin, alkaline phosphatase and osteonectin levels. Cells were able to proliferate within the pores of the scaffolds and form dense cellular networks after 28 days of culture and induction. The successful cultivation of osteogenic by FDM process manufactured ADSCs within a 3D matrix comprising fibrin glue or collagen, immobilized within a robust synthetic scaffold is a promising technique which should enhance their potential usage in the regenerative medicine arena, such as bone tissue engineering.

A hydrogen tethered inhibitor of matrix metalloproteinases

During wound repair, the balance between matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) and their natural inhibitors (the TIMPs) is crucial for the normal extra cellular matrix turnover. However, the over expression of several MMPs including MMP-1, 2, 3, 8, 9 and MMP-10, combined with abnormally high levels of activation or low expression of TIMPs, may contribute to excessive degradation of connective tissue and formation of chronic ulcers. There are many groups exploring strategies for promoting wound healing involving delivery of growth factors, cells, ECM components and small molecules. Our approach for improving the balance of MMPs is not to add anything more to the wound, but instead to neutralise the over-expressed MMPs using inhibitors tethered to a bandage-like hydrogel. Our in vitro experiments using designed synthetic pseudo peptide inhibitors have been demonstrated to inhibit MMP activity in standard solutions. These inhibitors have also been tethered to polyethylene glycol hydrogels using a facile reaction between the linker unit on the inhibitor and the gel. After tethering the inhibition of MMPs diminishes to some extent and we postulate that this arises due to poor diffusion of the MMPs into the gels. When the tethered inhibitors were tested against chronic wound fluid obtained against patients we observed over 40% inhibition in proteolytic activity suggesting our approach may prove useful in rebalancing MMPs within chronic wounds.

A peptidomimetic inhibitor of matrix metalloproteinases containing a tetherable linker group

Successful wound repair and normal turnover of the extracellular matrix relies on a balance between matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) and their natural inhibitors (the TIMPs). When over-expression of MMPs and abnormally high levels of activation or low expression of TIMPs are encountered, excessive degradation of connective tissue and the formation of chronic ulcers can occur. One strategy to rebalance MMPs and TIMPs is to use inhibitors. We have designed a synthetic pseudopeptide inhibitor with an amine linker group based on a known high-affinity peptidomimetic MMP inhibitor have demonstrated inhibition of MMP-1, -2, -3 and -9 activity in standard solutions. The inhibitor was also tethered to a polyethylene glycol hydrogel using a facile reaction between the linker unit on the inhibitor and the hydrogel precursors. After tethering, we observed inhibition of the MMPs although there was an increase in the IC50s which was attributed to poor diffusion of the MMPs into the hydrogels, reduced activity of the tethered inhibitor or incomplete incorporation of the inhibitor into the hydrogels. When the tethered inhibitors were tested against chronic wound fluid we observed significant inhibition in proteolytic activity suggesting our approach may prove useful in rebalancing MMPs within chronic wounds.

Pollutant characteristics on roof surfaces for evaluation as a stormwater harvesting catchment

This paper presents the outcomes of a study which focused on evaluating roof surfaces as stormwater harvesting catchments. Build-up and wash-off samples were collected from model roof surfaces. The collected build-up samples were separated into five different particle size ranges prior to the analysis of physico-chemical parameters. Study outcomes showed that roof surfaces are efficient catchment surfaces for the deposition of fine particles which travel over long distances. Roof surfaces contribute relatively high pollutant loads to the runoff and hence significantly influence the quality of the harvested rainwater. Pollutants associated with solids build-up on roof surfaces can vary with time, even with minimal changes to total solids load and particle size distribution. It is postulated that this variability is due to changes in distant atmospheric pollutant sources and wind patterns. The study highlighted the requirement for first flush devices to divert the highly polluted initial portion of roof runoff. Furthermore, it is highly recommended to not to harvest runoff from small intensity rainfall events since there is a high possibility that the runoff would contain a significant amount of pollutants even after the initial runoff fraction.

Port of Brisbane stormwater quality : stage 1 rainfall simulation to evaluate pollutant build-up and wash-off from selected land uses

Background: The quality of stormwater runoff from ports is significant as it can be an important source of pollution to the marine environment. This is also a significant issue for the Port of Brisbane as it is located in an area of high environmental values. Therefore, it is imperative to develop an in-depth understanding of stormwater runoff quality to ensure that appropriate strategies are in place for quality improvement. ---------------- The Port currently has a network of stormwater sample collection points where event based samples together with grab samples are tested for a range of water quality parameters. Whilst this information provides a ‘snapshot’ of the pollutants being washed from the catchment/s, it does not allow for a quantifiable assessment of total contaminant loads being discharged to the waters of Moreton Bay. It also does not represent pollutant build-up and wash-off from the different land uses across a broader range of rainfall events which might be expected. As such, it is difficult to relate stormwater quality to different pollutant sources within the Port environment. ----------------- Consequently, this would make the source tracking of pollutants to receiving waters extremely difficult and in turn the ability to implement appropriate mitigation measures. Also, without this detailed understanding, the efficacy of the various stormwater quality mitigation measures implemented cannot be determined with certainty. --------------- Current knowledge on port stormwater runoff quality Currently, little knowledge exists with regards to the pollutant generation capacity specific to port land uses as these do not necessarily compare well with conventional urban industrial or commercial land use due to the specific nature of port activities such as inter-modal operations and cargo management. Furthermore, traffic characteristics in a port area are different to a conventional urban area. Consequently, as data inputs based on an industrial and commercial land uses for modelling purposes is questionable. ------------------ A comprehensive review of published research failed to locate any investigations undertaken with regards to pollutant build-up and wash-off for port specific land uses. Furthermore, there is very limited information made available by various ports worldwide about the pollution generation potential of their facilities. Published work in this area has essentially focussed on the water quality or environmental values in the receiving waters such as the downstream bay or estuary. ----------------- The Project: The research project is an outcome of the collaborative Partnership between the Port of Brisbane Corporation (POBC) and Queensland University of Technology (QUT). A key feature of this Partnership is the undertaking of ‘cutting edge’ research to strengthen the environmental custodianship of the Port area. This project aims to develop a port specific stormwater quality model to allow informed decision making in relation to stormwater quality improvement in the context of the increased growth of the Port. --------------- Stage 1 of the research project focussed on the assessment of pollutant build-up and wash-off using rainfall simulation from the current Port of Brisbane facilities with the longer-term objective of contributing to the development of ecological risk mitigation strategies for future expansion scenarios. Investigation of complex processes such as pollutant wash-off using naturally occurring rainfall events has inherent difficulties. These can be overcome using simulated rainfall for the investigations. ----------------- The deliverables for Stage 1 included the following: * Pollutant build-up and wash-off profiles for six primary land uses within the Port of Brisbane to be used for water quality model development. * Recommendations with regards to future stormwater quality monitoring and pollution mitigation measures. The outcomes are expected to deliver the following benefits to the Port of Brisbane: * The availability of Port specific pollutant build-up and wash-off data will enable the implementation of customised stormwater pollution mitigation strategies. * The water quality data collected would form the baseline data for a Port specific water quality model for mitigation and predictive purposes. * To be at the cutting-edge in terms of water quality management and environmental best practice in the context of port infrastructure. ---------------- Conclusions: The important conclusions from the study are: * It confirmed that the Port environment is unique in terms of pollutant characteristics and is not comparable to typical urban land uses. * For most pollutant types, the Port land uses exhibited lower pollutant concentrations when compared to typical urban land uses. * The pollutant characteristics varied across the different land uses and were not consistent in terms of the land use. Hence, the implementation of stereotypical structural water quality improvement devices could be of limited value. * The <150m particle size range was predominant in suspended solids for pollutant build-up as well as wash-off. Therefore, if suspended solids are targeted as the surrogate parameter for water quality improvement, this specific particle size range needs to be removed. ------------------- Recommendations: Based on the study results the following preliminary recommendations are made: * Due to the appreciable variation in pollutant characteristics for different port land uses, any water quality monitoring stations should preferably be located such that source areas can be easily identified. * The study results having identified significant pollutants for the different land uses should enable the development of a more customised water quality monitoring and testing regime targeting the critical pollutants. * A ‘one size fits all’ approach may not be appropriate for the different port land uses due to the varying pollutant characteristics. As such, pollution mitigation will need to be specifically tailored to suit the specific land use. * Any structural measures implemented for pollution mitigation to be effective should have the capability to remove suspended solids of size <150m. * Based on the results presented and the particularly the fact that the Port land uses cannot be compared to conventional urban land uses in relation to pollutant generation, consideration should be given to the development of a port specific water quality model.

An innovative modelling approach to assess stormwater pollutant loads from the Port of Brisbane, Australia

Port land uses are subjected to unique anthropogenic activities compared to typical urban land uses. This uniqueness results in distinctive stormwater quality characteristics. Such distinction in stormwater quality has made conventional approaches used for pollutant load estimations inaccurate. This is also the case for the Port of Brisbane (PoB). The study discussed in the paper was conducted to estimate the pollutant contributions from Port specific land uses at PoB. For estimation, software modules embedded in Mike URBAN were used. An innovative approach was adopted in modelling where the conventional model calibration step was not needed to be performed to generate suitable site specific parameters. Instead, equations and site specific parameters that replicate pollutant build-up and wash-off were generated from an extensive field investigation. Models were simulated incorporating site specific parameters from six different Port specific land uses and rainfall events from three representative years. Outcomes of the modelling exercise were used to identify the distinct pollutant contributions from different Port land uses.

Development of pollutant build-up parameters for MIKE URBAN for Southeast Queensland, Australia

Accurate estimation of input parameters is essential to ensure the accuracy and reliability of hydrologic and water quality modelling. Calibration is an approach to obtain accurate input parameters for comparing observed and simulated results. However, the calibration approach is limited as it is only applicable to catchments where monitoring data is available. Therefore, methodology to estimate appropriate model input parameters is critical, particularly for catchments where monitoring data is not available. In the research study discussed in the paper, pollutant build-up parameters derived from catchment field investigations and model calibration using MIKE URBAN are compared for three catchments in Southeast Queensland, Australia. Additionally, the sensitivity of MIKE URBAN input parameters was analysed. It was found that Reduction Factor is the most sensitive parameter for peak flow and total runoff volume estimation whilst Build-up rate is the most sensitive parameter for TSS load estimation. Consequently, these input parameters should be determined accurately in hydrologic and water quality simulations using MIKE URBAN. Furthermore, an empirical equation for Southeast Queensland, Australia for the conversion of build-up parameters derived from catchment field investigations as MIKE URBAN input build-up parameters was derived. This will provide guidance for allowing for regional variations in the estimation of input parameters for catchment modelling using MIKE URBAN where monitoring data is not available.