A comparison of three different models for estimating relative risk in meta-analysis of clinical trials under unobserved heterogeneity

We focus on the comparison of three statistical models used to estimate the treatment effect in metaanalysis when individually pooled data are available. The models are two conventional models, namely a multi-level and a model based upon an approximate likelihood, and a newly developed model, the profile likelihood model which might be viewed as an extension of the Mantel-Haenszel approach. To exemplify these methods, we use results from a meta-analysis of 22 trials to prevent respiratory tract infections. We show that by using the multi-level approach, in the case of baseline heterogeneity, the number of clusters or components is considerably over-estimated. The approximate and profile likelihood method showed nearly the same pattern for the treatment effect distribution. To provide more evidence two simulation studies are accomplished. The profile likelihood can be considered as a clear alternative to the approximate likelihood model. In the case of strong baseline heterogeneity, the profile likelihood method shows superior behaviour when compared with the multi-level model. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Herbal medicine: the science of the art

In the last 50 years science has provided new perspectives on the ancient art of herbal medicine. The present article discusses ways in which the evidence base for the professional use of 'Western' herbal medicine, as therapy to treat disease, known as phytotherapy, can be strengthened and developed. The evidence base for phytotherapy is small and lags behind that for the nutritional sciences, mainly because phytochemicals are ingested as complex mixtures that are incompletely characterised and have only relatively recently been subject to scientific scrutiny. While some methodologies developed for the nutritional sciences can inform phytotherapy research, opportunities for observational studies are more limited, although greater use could be made of patient case notes. Randomised clinical trials of single-herb interventions are relatively easy to undertake and increasing numbers of such studies are being published. Indeed, enough data are available on three herbs (ginkgo (Ginkgo biloba), St John's wort (Hypericum perforatum) and saw palmetto (Serenoa repens)) for meta-analyses to have been undertaken. However, phytotherapy is holistic therapy, using lifestyle advice, nutrition and individually-prescribed mixtures of herbs aimed at reinstating homeostasis. While clinical experience shows that this approach is applicable to a wide range of conditions, including chronic disease, evidence of its efficacy is scarce. Strategies for investigating the full holistic approach of phytotherapy and its main elements are discussed and illustrated through the author's studies at the University of Reading.

A combined score test for binary and ordinal endpoints from clinical trials

There is growing interest, especially for trials in stroke, in combining multiple endpoints in a single clinical evaluation of an experimental treatment. The endpoints might be repeated evaluations of the same characteristic or alternative measures of progress on different scales. Often they will be binary or ordinal, and those are the cases studied here. In this paper we take a direct approach to combining the univariate score statistics for comparing treatments with respect to each endpoint. The correlations between the score statistics are derived and used to allow a valid combined score test to be applied. A sample size formula is deduced and application in sequential designs is discussed. The method is compared with an alternative approach based on generalized estimating equations in an illustrative analysis and replicated simulations, and the advantages and disadvantages of the two approaches are discussed.

The potential for bias in reporting of industry-sponsored clinical trials

Concerns about potentially misleading reporting of pharmaceutical industry research have surfaced many times. The potential for duality (and thereby conflict) of interest is only too clear when you consider the sums of money required for the discovery, development and commercialization of new medicines. As the ability of major, mid-size and small pharmaceutical companies to innovate has waned, as evidenced by the seemingly relentless decline in the numbers of new medicines approved by Food and Drug Administration and European Medicines Agency year-on-year, not only has the cost per new approved medicine risen: so too has the public and media concern about the extent to which the pharmaceutical industry is open and honest about the efficacy, safety and quality of the drugs we manufacture and sell. In 2005 an Editorial in Journal of the American Medical Association made clear that, so great was their concern about misleading reporting of industry-sponsored studies, henceforth no article would be published that was not also guaranteed by independent statistical analysis. We examine the precursors to this Editorial, as well as its immediate and lasting effects for statisticians, for the manner in which statistical analysis is carried out, and for the industry more generally.

Traditional Chinese medicine research in the post-genomic era: good practice, priorities, challenges and opportunities

Background and aims: GP-TCM is the 1st EU-funded Coordination Action consortium dedicated to traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) research. This paper aims to summarise the objectives, structure and activities of the consortium and introduces the position of the consortium regarding good practice, priorities, challenges and opportunities in TCM research. Serving as the introductory paper for the GPTCM Journal of Ethnopharmacology special issue, this paper describes the roadmap of this special issue and reports how the main outputs of the ten GP-TCM work packages are integrated, and have led to consortium-wide conclusions. Materials and methods: Literature studies, opinion polls and discussions among consortium members and stakeholders. Results: By January 2012, through 3 years of team building, the GP-TCM consortium had grown into a large collaborative network involving ∼200 scientists from 24 countries and 107 institutions. Consortium members had worked closely to address good practice issues related to various aspects of Chinese herbal medicine (CHM) and acupuncture research, the focus of this Journal of Ethnopharmacology special issue, leading to state-of-the-art reports, guidelines and consensus on the application of omics technologies in TCM research. In addition, through an online survey open to GP-TCM members and non-members, we polled opinions on grand priorities, challenges and opportunities in TCM research. Based on the poll, although consortium members and non-members had diverse opinions on the major challenges in the field, both groups agreed that high-quality efficacy/effectiveness and mechanistic studies are grand priorities and that the TCM legacy in general and its management of chronic diseases in particular represent grand opportunities. Consortium members cast their votes of confidence in omics and systems biology approaches to TCM research and believed that quality and pharmacovigilance of TCM products are not only grand priorities, but also grand challenges. Non-members, however, gave priority to integrative medicine, concerned on the impact of regulation of TCM practitioners and emphasised intersectoral collaborations in funding TCM research, especially clinical trials. Conclusions: The GP-TCM consortium made great efforts to address some fundamental issues in TCM research, including developing guidelines, as well as identifying priorities, challenges and opportunities. These consortium guidelines and consensus will need dissemination, validation and further development through continued interregional, interdisciplinary and intersectoral collaborations. To promote this, a new consortium, known as the GP-TCM Research Association, is being established to succeed the 3-year fixed term FP7 GP-TCM consortium and will be officially launched at the Final GP-TCM Congress in Leiden, the Netherlands, in April 2012.

Conditionally unbiased estimation in phase II/III clinical trials with early stopping for futility

Seamless phase II/III clinical trials combine traditional phases II and III into a single trial that is conducted in two stages, with stage 1 used to answer phase II objectives such as treatment selection and stage 2 used for the confirmatory analysis, which is a phase III objective. Although seamless phase II/III clinical trials are efficient because the confirmatory analysis includes phase II data from stage 1, inference can pose statistical challenges. In this paper, we consider point estimation following seamless phase II/III clinical trials in which stage 1 is used to select the most effective experimental treatment and to decide if, compared with a control, the trial should stop at stage 1 for futility. If the trial is not stopped, then the phase III confirmatory part of the trial involves evaluation of the selected most effective experimental treatment and the control. We have developed two new estimators for the treatment difference between these two treatments with the aim of reducing bias conditional on the treatment selection made and on the fact that the trial continues to stage 2. We have demonstrated the properties of these estimators using simulations

Estimation after subpopulation selection in adaptive seamless trials

During the development of new therapies, it is not uncommon to test whether a new treatment works better than the existing treatment for all patients who suffer from a condition (full population) or for a subset of the full population (subpopulation). One approach that may be used for this objective is to have two separate trials, where in the first trial, data are collected to determine if the new treatment benefits the full population or the subpopulation. The second trial is a confirmatory trial to test the new treatment in the population selected in the first trial. In this paper, we consider the more efficient two-stage adaptive seamless designs (ASDs), where in stage 1, data are collected to select the population to test in stage 2. In stage 2, additional data are collected to perform confirmatory analysis for the selected population. Unlike the approach that uses two separate trials, for ASDs, stage 1 data are also used in the confirmatory analysis. Although ASDs are efficient, using stage 1 data both for selection and confirmatory analysis introduces selection bias and consequently statistical challenges in making inference. We will focus on point estimation for such trials. In this paper, we describe the extent of bias for estimators that ignore multiple hypotheses and selecting the population that is most likely to give positive trial results based on observed stage 1 data. We then derive conditionally unbiased estimators and examine their mean squared errors for different scenarios.

A quantitative and qualitative evaluation of reports of clinical trials published in six Brazilian dental journals indexed in the Scientific Electronic Library Online (SciELO)

Introduction: Open access publishing is becoming increasingly popular within the biomedical sciences. SciELO, the Scientific Electronic Library Online, is a digital library covering a selected collection of Brazilian scientific journals many of which provide open access to full-text articles. This library includes a number of dental journals some of which may include reports of clinical trials in English, Portuguese and/or Spanish. Thus, SciELO could play an important role as a source of evidence for dental healthcare interventions especially if it yields a sizeable number of high quality reports. Objective: The aim of this study was to identify reports of clinical trials by handsearching of dental journals that are accessible through SciELO, and to assess the overall quality of these reports. Material and methods: Electronic versions of six Brazilian dental Journals indexed in SciELO were handsearched at www.scielo.br in September 2008. Reports of clinical trials were identified and classified as controlled clinical trials (CCTs - prospective, experimental studies comparing 2 or more healthcare interventions in human beings) or randomized controlled trials (RCTs - a random allocation method is clearly reported), according to Cochrane eligibility criteria. Criteria to assess methodological quality included: method of randomization, concealment of treatment allocation, blinded outcome assessment, handling of withdrawals and losses and whether an intention-to-treat analysis had been carried out. Results: The search retrieved 33 CCTs and 43 RCTs. A majority of the reports provided no description of either the method of randomization (75.3%) or concealment of the allocation sequence (84.2%). Participants and outcome assessors were reported as blinded in only 31.2% of the reports. Withdrawals and losses were only clearly described in 6.5% of the reports and none mentioned an intention-to-treat analysis or any similar procedure. Conclusions: The results of this study indicate that a substantial number of reports of trials and systematic reviews are available in the dental journals listed in SciELO, and that these could provide valuable evidence for clinical decision making. However, it is clear that the quality of a number of these reports is of some concern and that improvement in the conduct and reporting of these trials could be achieved if authors adhered to internationally accepted guidelines, e. g. the CONSORT statement.

Ozone therapy in medicine and dentistry

Aim: The purpose of this review is to present the potential for the incorporation of ozone therapy into the practice of dentistry. Background: Ozone gas has a high oxidation potential and is 1.5 times greater than chloride when used as an antimicrobial agent against bacteria, viruses, fungi, and protozoa. It also has the capacity to stimulate blood circulation and the immune response. Such features justify the current interest in its application in medicine and dentistry and have been indicated for the treatment of 260 different pathologies. It can be used for the treatment of alveolitis as a replacement for antibiotic therapy, as a mouthwash for reducing the oral microflora, as well as the adherence of microorganisms to tooth surfaces. Ozone has been shown to stimulate remineralization of recent caries-affected teeth after a period of about six to eight weeks. Conclusion: The future of ozone therapy must focus on the establishment of safe and well-defined parameters in accordance with randomized, controlled trials to determine the precise indications and guidelines in order to treat various medical and dental pathologies. Scientific support, as suggested by demonstrated studies, for ozone therapy presents a potential for an atraumatic, biologically-based treatment for conditions encountered in dental practice.

Systematic review of randomized controlled trials of new anticoagulants for venous thromboembolism prophylaxis in major orthopedic surgeries, compared with enoxaparin

Background: In the past 10 years, new anticoagulants (NACs) have been studied for venous thromboembolism (VTE) prophylaxis. Objective: To evaluate the risk/benefit profile of NACs versus enoxaparin for VTE prophylaxis in major orthopedic surgery. Methods: A systematic review of double-blind randomized phase III studies was performed. The search strategy was run from 2000 to 2011 in the main medical electronic databases in any language. Independent extraction of articles was performed by 2 authors using predefined data fields, including study quality indicators. Results: Fifteen published clinical trials evaluating fondaparinux, rivaroxaban, dabigatran, and apixaban were included. Primary efficacy (any deep vein thrombosis [DVT], nonfatal pulmonary embolism, or all-cause mortality) favored fondaparinux (relative risk [RR] 0.50; 95% CI, 0.39, 0.63) and rivaroxaban (RR, 0.50; 95% CI, 0.34, 0.73) over enoxaparin, although significant heterogeneity was observed in both series. The primary efficacy of dabigatran at 220 mg, apixaban, and bemiparin were similar, with RRs of 1.02 (95% CI, 0.86, 1.20), 0.63 (95% CI, 0.39, 1.01), and 0.87 (95% CI, 0.65, 1.17), respectively. The primary efficacy of dabigatran at 150 mg (RR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.03, 1.41), was inferior to enoxaparin. The incidence of proximal DVT favored apixaban (RR, 0.45; 95% CI, 0.27, 0.75) only. Rivaroxaban (RR, 0.45; 95% CI, 0.27, 0,77) and apixaban (RR, 0.38; 95% CI, 0.16, 0.90) produced significantly lower frequencies of symptomatic DVT. The incidence of major VTE favored rivaroxaban (RR, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.25, 0.81), only. Bleeding risk was similar for all NACs, except fondaparinux (RR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.04, 1.55), which exhibited a significantly higher any-bleeding risk compared with enoxaparin, and apixaban (RR, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.79, 0.99), which was associated with a reduced risk of any bleeding. Alanine amino transferase was significantly lower with 220 mg of dabigatran, (RR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.79, 0.99) than with enoxaparin. Conclusions: NACs can be considered alternatives to conventional thromboprophylaxis regimens in patients undergoing elective major orthopedic surgery, depending on clinical characteristics and cost-effectiveness. The knowledge of some differences concerning efficacy or safety profile, pointed out in this systematic review, along with the respective limitations, may be useful in clinical practice. © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Systematic reviews showed insufficient evidence for clinical practice in 2004: What about in 2011? the next appeal for the evidence-based medicine age

Rationale and aim The aims of the Cochrane systematic reviews are to make readily available and up-to-date information for clinical practice, offering consistent evidence and straightforward recommendations. In 2004, we evaluated the conclusions from Cochrane systematic reviews of randomized controlled trials in terms of their recommendations for clinical practice and found that 47.83% of them had insufficient evidence for use in clinical practice. We proposed to reanalyze the reviews to evaluate whether this percentage had significantly decreased. Methods A cross-sectional study of systematic reviews published in the Cochrane Library (Issue 7, 2011) was conducted. We randomly selected reviews across all 52 Cochrane Collaborative Review Groups. Results We analyzed 1128 completed systematic reviews. Of these, 45.30% concluded that the interventions studied were likely to be beneficial, of which only 2.04% recommended no further research. In total, 45.04% of the reviews reported that the evidence did not support either benefit or harm, of which 0.8% did not recommend further studies and 44.24% recommended additional studies; the latter has decreased from our previous study with a difference of 3.59%. Conclusion Only a small number of the Cochrane collaboration's systematic reviews support clinical interventions with no need for additional research. A larger number of high-quality randomized clinical trials are necessary to change the 'insufficient evidence' scenario for clinical practice illustrated by the Cochrane database. It is recommended that we should produce higher-quality primary studies in active collaboration and consultation with global scholars and societies so that this can represent a major component of methodological advance in this context. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Bone morphogenetic proteins: promising molecules for bone healing, bioengineering, and regenerative medicine

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Evidence-based medicine: an update on treatments for peritoneal dialysis-related peritonitis

Peritonitis continues to be a major complication of peritoneal dialysis (PD), and adequate treatment is crucial for a favorable outcome. There is no consensus regarding the optimal therapeutic regimen, and few prospective controlled studies have been published. The objective of this manuscript is to review the results of PD peritonitis treatment reported in narrative reviews, systematic reviews, and proportional meta-analyses. Two narrative reviews, the only existing systematic review and its update published between 1991 and 2014 were included. In addition, we reported the results of a proportional meta-analysis published by our group. Results from systematic reviews of randomized control trials (RCT) and quasi-RCT were not able to identify any optimal antimicrobial treatment, but glycopeptide regimens were more likely to achieve a complete cure than a first generation cephalosporin. Compared to urokinase, simultaneous catheter removal and replacement resulted in better outcomes. Continuous and intermittent IP antibiotic use had similar outcomes. Intraperitoneal antibiotics were superior to intravenous antibiotics in reducing treatment failure. In the proportional meta-analysis of RCTs and the case series, the resolution rate (86%) of ceftazidime plus glycopeptide as initial treatment was significantly higher than first generation cephalosporin plus aminoglycosides (66%) and glycopeptides plus aminoglycosides (75%). Other comparisons of regimens used for either initial treatment or treatment of gram-positive rods or gram-negative rods did not show statistically significant differences. The superiority of a combination of a glycopeptide and a third generation cephalosporin was also reported by a narrative review study published in 1991, which reported an 88% resolution rate.

Postoperative pain control in cats: clinical trials with pre-emptive lidocaine epidural co-administered with morphine or methadone

To evaluate the effectiveness of epidural lidocaine in combination with either methadone or morphine for postoperative analgesia in cats undergoing ovariohysterectomy. Under general anesthesia, 24 cats that underwent ovariohysterectomy were randomly allocated into three treatments groups of eight each. Treatment 1 included 2% lidocaine (4.0 mg/kg); treatment 2 included lidocaine and methadone (4.0 mg/kg and 0.3 mg/kg, respectively); and treatment 3 included lidocaine and morphine (4.0 mg/kg and 0.1 mg/kg, respectively). All drugs were injected in a total volume of 0.25 ml/kg via the lumbosacral route in all cats. During the anesthetic and surgical periods, the physiological variables (respiratory and heart rate, arterial blood pressure and rectal temperature) were measured at intervals of time zero, 10 mins, 20 mins, 30 mins, 60 mins and 120 mins. After cats had recovered from anesthesia, a multidimensional composite pain scale was used to assess postoperative analgesia at 2, 4, 8, 12, 18, and 24 h after epidural. The time to first rescue analgesic was significantly (P <0.05) prolonged in cats that received both lidocaine and methadone or lidocaine and morphine treatments compared with those that received the lidocaine treatment. All cats that received lidocaine treatment alone required rescue analgesic within 2 h of epidural injections. All treatments had significant cardiovascular and respiratory changes but they were within acceptable range for healthy animals during the surgical period. The two combinations administered via epidural allowed ovariohysterectomy with sufficient analgesia in cats, and both induced prolonged postoperative analgesia.