Frequent floods in the European Alps coincide with cooler periods of the past 2500 years

Severe floods triggered by intense precipitation are among the most destructive natural hazards in Alpine environments, frequently causing large financial and societal damage. Potential enhanced flood occurrence due to global climate change would thus increase threat to settlements, infrastructure, and human lives in the affected regions. Yet, projections of intense precipitation exhibit major uncertainties and robust reconstructions of Alpine floods are limited to the instrumental and historical period. Here we present a 2500-year long flood reconstruction for the European Alps, based on dated sedimentary flood deposits from ten lakes in Switzerland. We show that periods with high flood frequency coincide with cool summer temperatures. This wet-cold synchronism suggests enhanced flood occurrence to be triggered by latitudinal shifts of Atlantic and Mediterranean storm tracks. This paleoclimatic perspective reveals natural analogues for varying climate conditions, and thus can contribute to a better understanding and improved projections of weather extremes under climate change.

The Role of Cortisol in the Cycle of Violence

Child abuse and neglect are universal risk factors for delinquency, violence and aggression; this phenomenon is known as the cycle of violence. Despite a wide body of research demonstrating this phenomenon, the processes which mediate this relationship remain largely unknown. One potentially relevant result of abuse and neglect may be disruptions in the development of the body’s stress response, specifically the function of the Hypothalamic-Pituitary-Adrenal (HPA) axis. The HPA-axis, and its end-product, cortisol, may play a role in regulating aggressive behavior, but this function may be disrupted following abuse and neglect. Another risk factor for aggression, psychopathy, may mediate the cycle of violence or independently contribute to aggressive behavior. This study examined the relationship between child abuse and neglect, HPA-axis function, psychopathy and aggression. History of abuse was measured using a self-report questionnaire, the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire. Using a within-subject, placebo-controlled, counter-balanced dosing design, 67 adults were given an acute dose of 20mg cortisol as a challenge to the HPA-axis. Following dosing, measures of cortisol response were obtained through saliva samples, and state-aggressive behavior was measured by a laboratory task, the Point-Subtraction Aggression Paradigm (PSAP). Basal measures of cortisol were obtained prior to dosing. Psychopathy and a trait-measure of aggression were assessed through self-report questionnaires. PSAP data and trait-aggression scores were normalized and summed for an overall aggression score. Linear regression analyses indicated that a history of abuse and neglect robustly predicted aggression, supporting the cycle of violence hypothesis. Further, abuse and neglect predicted a diminished HPA-axis response to the cortisol challenge. Although a diminished HPA-axis response significantly predicted increased aggression, mediation analysis revealed that HPA-axis reactivity did not mediate a significant portion of the effect of abuse and neglect on aggression. However, HPA-axis reactivity did mediate part of the effect, indicating that HPA-axis function may be a factor in the cycle of violence. Psychopathy robustly predicted increased aggression. Although the results indicate that cortisol, psychopathy and HPA-axis function are involved in the cycle of violence, further research is required to better understand the complex interaction of these factors.

Transition and Justice: Negotiating the Terms of New Beginnings in Africa

Transition and Justice examines a series of cases from across the African continent where peaceful ‘new beginnings’ were declared after periods of violence and where transitional justice institutions helped define justice and the new socio-political order. Offers a new perspective on transition and justice in Africa transcending the institutional limits of transitional justice Covers a wide range of situations, and presents a broad range of sites where past injustices are addressed Examines cases where peaceful ‘new beginnings’ have been declared after periods of violence Addresses fundamental questions about transitions and justice in societies characterized by a high degree of external involvement and internal fragmentation

Structure and inferred dynamics of a large grove of Microberlinia bisulcata trees in central African rain forest: the possible role of periods of multiple disturbance events

A 272-ha grove of dominant Microberlinia bisulcata (Caesalpinioideae) adult trees greater than or equal to 50 cm stem diameter was mapped in its entirety in the southern part of Korup National Park, Cameroon. The approach used an earlier-established 82.5-ha permanent plot with a new surrounding 50-m grid of transect lines. Tree diameters were available from the plot but trees on the grid were recorded as being greater than or equal to 50 cm. The grove consisted of 1028 trees in 2000. Other species occurred within the grove. including the associated subdominants Tetraberlinia bifoliolata and T. korupensis. Microberlinia bisulcata becomes adult at a stein diameter of c. 50 cm and at an estimated age of 50 y. Three oval-shaped subgroves with dimensions c. 8 50 in x 13 50 in (90 ha) were defined. For two of them (within the plot) tree diameters were available. Subgroves differed in their scales and intensities of spatial tree patterns, and in their size frequency distributions, these suggesting differing past dynamics. The modal scale of clumping was 40-50 m. Seed dispersal by pod ejection (to c. 50 in) was evident from the semi-circles of trees at the grove's edge and from the many internal circles (100-200 m diameter). The grove has the capacity. therefore, to increase at c. 100 m per century. To form its present extent and structure. it is inferred that it expanded and infilled from a possibly smaller area of lower adult-tree density. This possibly happened in three waves of recruitment, each one determined by a period of several intense disturbances. Climate records for Africa show that 1740-50 and 1820-30 were periods of drought, and that 1870-1895 was also regionally very dry. Canopy openings allow the light-demanding and fast-growing ectomycorrhizal M. bisulcata to establish, but successive releases are thought to be required to achieve effective recruitment. Nevertheless, in the last 50 y there were no major events and recruitment in the grove was very poor. This present study leads to a new hypothesis of the role of periods of multiple extreme events being the driving factor for the population dynamics of many large African tree species such as M. bisulcata.

Simple Estimation of Incident HIV Infection Rates in Notification Cohorts Based on Window Periods of Algorithms for Evaluation of Line-Immunoassay Result Patterns

Background Tests for recent infections (TRIs) are important for HIV surveillance. We have shown that a patient's antibody pattern in a confirmatory line immunoassay (Inno-Lia) also yields information on time since infection. We have published algorithms which, with a certain sensitivity and specificity, distinguish between incident (< = 12 months) and older infection. In order to use these algorithms like other TRIs, i.e., based on their windows, we now determined their window periods. Methods We classified Inno-Lia results of 527 treatment-naïve patients with HIV-1 infection < = 12 months according to incidence by 25 algorithms. The time after which all infections were ruled older, i.e. the algorithm's window, was determined by linear regression of the proportion ruled incident in dependence of time since infection. Window-based incident infection rates (IIR) were determined utilizing the relationship ‘Prevalence = Incidence x Duration’ in four annual cohorts of HIV-1 notifications. Results were compared to performance-based IIR also derived from Inno-Lia results, but utilizing the relationship ‘incident = true incident + false incident’ and also to the IIR derived from the BED incidence assay. Results Window periods varied between 45.8 and 130.1 days and correlated well with the algorithms' diagnostic sensitivity (R2 = 0.962; P<0.0001). Among the 25 algorithms, the mean window-based IIR among the 748 notifications of 2005/06 was 0.457 compared to 0.453 obtained for performance-based IIR with a model not correcting for selection bias. Evaluation of BED results using a window of 153 days yielded an IIR of 0.669. Window-based IIR and performance-based IIR increased by 22.4% and respectively 30.6% in 2008, while 2009 and 2010 showed a return to baseline for both methods. Conclusions IIR estimations by window- and performance-based evaluations of Inno-Lia algorithm results were similar and can be used together to assess IIR changes between annual HIV notification cohorts.

An exploratory study about the perception and justification of violence in Mixed Martial Arts and kickboxing athletes

THE INFLUENCE of combat sport practice on behaviour, attitude, personality and other factors was, and still remains, a research topic of great interest as well as conflicting points of view. Findings are as yet inconclusive since a direct or causal effect is difficult to establish and other factors external to the individual, such as the instructor’s coaching style, also need to be taken into consideration. Furthermore, the wide range of disciplines pertaining to the category combat sports differ from each other on a number of characteristics, such as the extent of physical contact or competition rules, and in fact, attempts have been made to distinguish between various sub-types (e.g. Trulson, 1986). A common distinction made is that between the traditional martial arts, which place emphasis on the art’s philosophy, its traditions and hierarchy (e.g. traditional karate, aikido) and the modern (or Western) combat sports (e.g. boxing, Mixed Martial Arts). An ongoing debate exists about the potential positive and/or negative influence of combat sport practice in comparison to other sport disciplines that do not include this element of fighting and direct aggression. On the one hand, combat sports have been presented by some researchers and sport practitioners as a means of promoting positive social and individual behavior, such as in Theeboom, De Knop and Wylleman’s (2008) evaluation of a martial arts Programme for socially disadvantaged youths in Belgium. Results revealed a positive effect of this project; however, it also highlighted the crucial role played by the instructors or leaders of such programmes. In another intervention using martial arts, Trulson (1986) reported a positive effect of a six month traditional martial art (Korean Tae Kwon Do) intervention with male juvenile delinquents including a reduction in aggressiveness and anxiety, thus confirming the positive influence of such an activity. Nevertheless, this effect was not observed in the other group participating in a modern Adaptation of this martial art led by the same instructor, where the philosophical aspect of this discipline was not emphasised. Moreover, an opposite effect was ascertained in this case where an increased tendency towards delinquency was reported. These results support the distinction between the various types of combat sports together with the way this sport is presented and taught by the instructor.

Choosing the Path of Austerity: How Policy Coalitions Shape Welfare-policy Choices in Periods of Fiscal Consolidation

In general, fiscal adjustments are associated with significant reductions in social spending. Hence, the welfare state is not spared from austerity. Because the welfare state is still central to party competition, this is electorally risky. The paper addresses the following questions: Do left parties differ from their centrist and rightist competitors in the design of austerity measures? And does government type has an impact on the extent to which austerity policies rely on social spending cuts? By comparing 17 OECD countries between 1982 and 2009 we show that if governments embark on a path to austerity, their ideology does not have a significant effect on the magnitude of welfare state retrenchment. However, if major opposition parties and interest groups rally against social spending cuts, a broad pro-reform coalition is a crucial precondition for large fiscal consolidation programs to rely on substantial cuts to social security.

Methylation of NR3C1 is related to maternal PTSD, parenting stress and maternal medial prefrontal cortical activity in response to child separation among mothers with histories of violence exposure.

Prior research has shown that mothers with Interpersonal violence-related posttraumatic stress disorder (IPV-PTSD) report greater difficulty in parenting their toddlers. Relative to their frequent early exposure to violence and maltreatment, these mothers display dysregulation of their hypothalamic pituitary adrenal axis (HPA-axis), characterized by hypocortisolism. Considering methylation of the promoter region of the glucocorticoid receptor gene NR3C1 as a marker for HPA-axis functioning, with less methylation likely being associated with less circulating cortisol, the present study tested the hypothesis that the degree of methylation of this gene would be negatively correlated with maternal IPV-PTSD severity and parenting stress, and positively correlated with medial prefrontal cortical (mPFC) activity in response to video-stimuli of stressful versus non-stressful mother-child interactions. Following a mental health assessment, 45 mothers and their children (ages 12-42 months) participated in a behavioral protocol involving free-play and laboratory stressors such as mother-child separation. Maternal DNA was extracted from saliva. Interactive behavior was rated on the CARE-Index. During subsequent fMRI scanning, mothers were shown films of free-play and separation drawn from this protocol. Maternal PTSD severity and parenting stress were negatively correlated with the mean percentage of methylation of NR3C1. Maternal mPFC activity in response to video-stimuli of mother-child separation versus play correlated positively to NR3C1 methylation, and negatively to maternal IPV-PTSD and parenting stress. Among interactive behavior variables, child cooperativeness in play was positively correlated with NR3C1 methylation. Thus, the present study is the first published report to our knowledge, suggesting convergence of behavioral, epigenetic, and neuroimaging data that form a psychobiological signature of parenting-risk in the context of early life stress and PTSD.