Required returns for real estate in UK pension fund portfolios

The position of Real Estate within a multi-asset portfolio has received considerable attention recently. Previous research has concentrated on the percentage holding property would achieve given its risk/return characteristics. Such studies have invariably used Modern Portfolio Theory and these approaches have been criticised for both the quality of the real estate data and problems with the methodology itself. The first problem is now well understood, and the second can be addressed by the use of realistic constraints on asset holdings. This paper takes a different approach. We determine the level of return that Real Estate needs to achieve to justify an allocation within the multi asset portfolio. In order to test the importance of the quality of the data we use historic appraisal based and desmoothed returns to examine the sensitivity of the results. Consideration is also given to the Holding period and the imposition of realistic constraints on the asset holdings in order to model portfolios held by pension fund investors. We conclude, using several benchmark levels of portfolio risk and return, that using appraisal based data the required level of return for Real Estate was less than that achieved over the period 1972-1993. The use of desmoothed series can reverse this result at the highest levels of desmoothing although within a restricted holding period Real Estate offered returns in excess of those required to enter the portfolio and might have a role to play in the multi-asset portfolio.

Asset liability modelling and pension schemes: the application of robust optimization to USS

This paper uses a novel numerical optimization technique - robust optimization - that is well suited to solving the asset-liability management (ALM) problem for pension schemes. It requires the estimation of fewer stochastic parameters, reduces estimation risk and adopts a prudent approach to asset allocation. This study is the first to apply it to a real-world pension scheme, and the first ALM model of a pension scheme to maximise the Sharpe ratio. We disaggregate pension liabilities into three components - active members, deferred members and pensioners, and transform the optimal asset allocation into the scheme’s projected contribution rate. The robust optimization model is extended to include liabilities and used to derive optimal investment policies for the Universities Superannuation Scheme (USS), benchmarked against the Sharpe and Tint, Bayes-Stein, and Black-Litterman models as well as the actual USS investment decisions. Over a 144 month out-of-sample period robust optimization is superior to the four benchmarks across 20 performance criteria, and has a remarkably stable asset allocation – essentially fix-mix. These conclusions are supported by six robustness checks.

Pension scheme redesign and wealth redistribution between the members and sponsor: the USS rule change in October 2011

The redesign of defined benefit pension schemes usually results in a substantial redistribution of wealth between age cohorts of members, pensioners, and the sponsor. This is the first study to quantify the redistributive effects of a rule change by a real world scheme (the Universities Superannuation Scheme, USS) where the sponsor underwrites the pension promise. In October 2011 USS closed its final salary scheme to new members, opened a career average revalued earnings (CARE) section, and moved to ‘cap and share’ contribution rates. We find that the pre-October 2011 scheme was not viable in the long run, while the post-October 2011 scheme is probably viable in the long run, but faces medium term problems. In October 2011 future members of USS lost 65% of their pension wealth (or roughly £100,000 per head), equivalent to a reduction of roughly 11% in their total compensation, while those aged over 57 years lost almost nothing. The riskiness of the pension wealth of future members increased by a third, while the riskiness of the present value of the sponsor’s future contributions reduced by 10%. Finally, the sponsor’s wealth increased by about £32.5 billion, equivalent to a reduction of 26% in their pension costs.

Essays on robust portfolio selection and pension finance

This thesis examines three different, but related problems in the broad area of portfolio management for long-term institutional investors, and focuses mainly on the case of pension funds. The first idea (Chapter 3) is the application of a novel numerical technique – robust optimization – to a real-world pension scheme (the Universities Superannuation Scheme, USS) for first time. The corresponding empirical results are supported by many robustness checks and several benchmarks such as the Bayes-Stein and Black-Litterman models that are also applied for first time in a pension ALM framework, the Sharpe and Tint model and the actual USS asset allocations. The second idea presented in Chapter 4 is the investigation of whether the selection of the portfolio construction strategy matters in the SRI industry, an issue of great importance for long term investors. This study applies a variety of optimal and naïve portfolio diversification techniques to the same SRI-screened universe, and gives some answers to the question of which portfolio strategies tend to create superior SRI portfolios. Finally, the third idea (Chapter 5) compares the performance of a real-world pension scheme (USS) before and after the recent major changes in the pension rules under different dynamic asset allocation strategies and the fixed-mix portfolio approach and quantifies the redistributive effects between various stakeholders. Although this study deals with a specific pension scheme, the methodology can be applied by other major pension schemes in countries such as the UK and USA that have changed their rules.

Chinese Basic Pension Substitution Rate: A Monte Carlo Demonstration of the Individual Account Model

At the end of 2005, the State Council of China passed ”The Decision on adjusting the Individual Account of Basic Pension System”, which adjusted the individual account in the 1997 basic pension system. In this essay, we will analyze the adjustment above, and use Life Annuity Actuarial Theory to establish the basic pension substitution rate model. Monte Carlo simulation is also used to prove the rationality of the model. Some suggestions are put forward associated with the substitution rate according to the current policy.

The trouble with income trusts

This paper sketches broadly the efficiency and equity effects of income trusts that make their use as a substitute for the direct holding of shares of a corporation problematic for tax policy purposes. The paper also considers the potential effectiveness of an equity recharacterization rule applicable to the high-yield junk debt that is the common feature of the basic income trust structure. The author suggests that this type of narrowly focused rule would be more target-efficient than other possible responses to income trusts, such as fundamental reform of the corporate income tax or the restrictions on the holding of trust units proposed in the 2004 budget. However, a principal difficulty in designing an equity recharacterization rule is ensuring that it applies equally to structures that realize the same effect as the basic income trust structure but do not use high-yield junk debt.
The author argues that income trusts are examples of tax-driven financial innovation in the sense that they replicate an existing set of securities and therefore have no nontax rationale. These securities are essentially redundant, and the innovative process of which they are a product does not constitute “genuine” financial innovation. This essential characteristic of income trusts distinguishes them from real estate investment trusts, which arguably do not present a tax policy problem (or at least not the same one). More particularly, income trust transactions are redundant in the sense that they do not complete capital markets by providing investors with a risk and return payoff profile that is otherwise unavailable. In the absence of any efficiency gains or desirable distributional effects associated with income trusts, the available tax benefit is the subject of a defensible government response intended to eliminate it. But without any clear evidence that income trusts are substituted generally for the corporate form, any response can defensibly be limited to a narrowly targeted one that introduces a “taxlaw friction” by shifting the debt-equity boundary that is the focus of the basic income trust structure. Because the precise dividing points along this boundary lack any obvious normative content, the suggested policy focus should be the development of a legislative response that redraws the debt-equity boundary in a manner that minimizes perceived efficiency losses otherwise associated with the use of income trusts.

Principles of equity and trusts

The Principles of Equity and Trusts 3rd edition provides a comprehensive summation of the principles of equity, the law of trusts and equitable remedies. The book is designed to meet the needs of both students and practitioners.

It includes developments in areas such as the relationship between common law and equity, undue influence, tracing, interim injunctions, and resulting trusts. Covering the general principles associated with the equity and trusts jurisprudence, this textbook is useful for undergraduate study of the subject.

Listed property trusts and downside systematic risk sensitivity

Purpose: This paper aims to identify and examine the determinants of downside systematic risk in Australian listed property trusts (LPTs).

Design/methodology/approach: Capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and lower partial moment-CAPM (LPM-CAPM) are employed to compute both systematic risk and downside systematic risk. The methodology of Patel and Olsen and Chaudhry et al. is adopted to examine the determinants of systematic risk and downside systematic risk.

Findings: The results confirm that systematic risk and downside systematic risk can be individually identified. There is little evidence to support the existence of linkages between systematic risk in Australian LPTs and financial/management structure determinants. On the other hand, downside systematic risk is directly related to the leverage/management structure of a LPT. The results are also robust after controlling for the LPTs' investment characteristics and varying target rates of return.

Practical implications: Investors and real estate analysts should conscious with the higher returns from high leverage and internally managed LPTs. Although there is no evidence that these higher returns are related to higher systematic risk, there could be the compensation for higher downside systematic risk.

Originality/value: This study provides invaluable insights into the management of real estate risk in Australian LPTs with implications for REITs in other countries. Unlike previous studies of systematic risk in REITs or LPTs, this is the first study to assess downside systematic risk and explore the determinants of downside systematic risk in LPTs.

Momentum profits in Australian listed property trusts

This paper examines the profitability of momentum trading strategies in Australian listed property trusts (LPTs). Monthly value-weighted momentum portfolios are formed using the monthly excess returns of LPTs for the period from 1990 to 2005. Overall the findings confirm that a momentum trading strategy in Australian LPTs is a profitable strategy. More specifically, momentum strategies are profitable after adjusting for variance and downside risk where the momentum returns substantially outperform the benchmark. An analysis using different study periods confirm the findings about momentum. The practical implication from this study is that investors can generate substantial abnormal returns by adopting a momentum trading strategy, particularly with a long strategy (i.e. winner portfolios).

Downside systematic risk in Australian listed property trusts

Previous studies on systematic risk have demonstrated the link between financial and management structure determinants and systematic risk. However, systematic risk is estimated by assuming return is normally distributed. This assumption is generally rejected for real estate returns. Therefore, downside systematic risk appears as a more sensible risk measure in estimating market-related risk. This study contributes to this body of knowledge by examining the determinants of downside systematic risk in Australian Listed Property Trusts (LPTs) over 1993-2005. The results reveal that systematic risk and downside systematic risk are empirically distinguishable. More specifically, there is limited evidence on the connection between these financial and management structure determinants and systematic risk. However, downside systematic risk is sensitive to leverage and management structure.

Principles of equity and trusts

This fourth edition of Principles of Equity and Trusts has been comprehensively updated and revised. It retains its original style of presenting principles and remedies relevant to equity and trusts in a straightforward and succinct manner.This new edition includes a discussion of new developments in knowing receipt constructive trusts, resulting trusts, charitable trusts, injunctions, equitable recission and forfeiture. All chapters have been fully revised, with significant new analysis in a range of chapters including those dealing with the relationship between common law and equity, fiduciary obligations and certainty rules for the creation of trusts.New case discussions in this edition include:Stack v Dowden (2007) (the House of Lords considering the presumptive application of resulting trusts in domestic de facto relationships);Trustees of the Property of Cummins (a bankrupt) v Cummins [2006] (the High Court considering the presumptive application of purchase money resulting trusts in a marriage relationship);Farah Constructions Pty Ltd v Say-Dee Pty Ltd (2007) (the High Court considering the scope and application of knowing receipt constructive trusts);Twinsectra v Yardley [2002] and Barlow Clowes International Ltd (in liq) v Eurotrust International [2006] 1 All ER 477 ( the House of Lords considering the dishonesty test relevant to knowing assistance constructive trusts) and Commissioner of Taxation v Word Investment Ltd [2006] (the Federal Court considering the scope of the charitable purpose test).This new edition remains an ideal book for undergraduate study, covering all aspects of equity and trusts jurisprudence in an accessible, comprehensive and up to date style.

Women directors on boards of Australian Real Estate Investment Trusts

Purpose – This is the first paper which aims to investigate factors that might influence the gender composition of boards of directors of Australian Real Estate Investment Trusts (A-REITs).

Design/methodology/approach – This study follows Mateos de Cabo, Gimeno and Nieto and the gender diversity literature and investigates the existence and number of women directors on the boards of directors of 37 A-REITs from 2006 to 2011.

Findings – There is evidence that larger (by market capitalization) A-REITs are more likely to employ a woman director and that A-REITs with larger boards are more likely to employ a woman director and indeed more women directors. It also appears that A-REITs whose head office is in Sydney are more likely to employ a woman director and also more women directors.

Practical implications – Women seeking to be engaged as directors of A-REITs are more likely to be employed by larger A-REITs (by market capitalization), those with larger boards and those located in Sydney.

Originality/value – This paper adds to the existing literature on gender diversity by examining the factors that appear to influence the employment of women on A-REIT Boards.