Probable maximum precipitation estimation for catchments in Mahanadi river basin

Probable maximum precipitation (PMP) is a theoretical concept that is widely used by hydrologists to arrive at estimates for probable maximum flood (PMF) that find use in planning, design and risk assessment of high-hazard hydrological structures such as flood control dams upstream of populated areas. The PMP represents the greatest depth of precipitation for a given duration that is meteorologically possible for a watershed or an area at a particular time of year, with no allowance made for long-term climatic trends. Various methods are in use for estimation of PMP over a target location corresponding to different durations. Moisture maximization method and Hershfield method are two widely used methods. The former method maximizes the observed storms assuming that the atmospheric moisture would rise up to a very high value estimated based on the maximum daily dew point temperature. On the other hand, the latter method is a statistical method based on a general frequency equation given by Chow. The present study provides one-day PMP estimates and PMP maps for Mahanadi river basin based on the aforementioned methods. There is a need for such estimates and maps, as the river basin is prone to frequent floods. Utility of the constructed PMP maps in computing PMP for various catchments in the river basin is demonstrated. The PMP estimates can eventually be used to arrive at PMF estimates for those catchments. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Evaluation of Precipitation Retrievals From Orbital Data Products of TRMM Over a Subtropical Basin in India

The spatial error structure of daily precipitation derived from the latest version 7 (v7) tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM) level 2 data products are studied through comparison with the Asian precipitation highly resolved observational data integration toward evaluation of the water resources (APHRODITE) data over a subtropical region of the Indian subcontinent for the seasonal rainfall over 6 years from June 2002 to September 2007. The data products examined include v7 data from the TRMM radiometer Microwave Imager (TMI) and radar precipitation radar (PR), namely, 2A12, 2A25, and 2B31 (combined data from PR and TMI). The spatial distribution of uncertainty from these data products were quantified based on performance metrics derived from the contingency table. For the seasonal daily precipitation over a subtropical basin in India, the data product of 2A12 showed greater skill in detecting and quantifying the volume of rainfall when compared with the 2A25 and 2B31 data products. Error characterization using various error models revealed that random errors from multiplicative error models were homoscedastic and that they better represented rainfall estimates from 2A12 algorithm. Error decomposition techniques performed to disentangle systematic and random errors verify that the multiplicative error model representing rainfall from 2A12 algorithm successfully estimated a greater percentage of systematic error than 2A25 or 2B31 algorithms. Results verify that although the radiometer derived 2A12 rainfall data is known to suffer from many sources of uncertainties, spatial analysis over the case study region of India testifies that the 2A12 rainfall estimates are in a very good agreement with the reference estimates for the data period considered.

Coupled Mechanisms of Precipitation and Atomization in Burning Nanofluid Fuel Droplets

Understanding the combustion characteristics of fuel droplets laden with energetic nanoparticles (NP) is pivotal for lowering ignition delay, reducing pollutant emissions and increasing the combustion efficiency in next generation combustors. In this study, first we elucidate the feedback coupling between two key interacting mechanisms, namely, secondary atomization and particle agglomeration; that govern the effective mass fraction of NPs within the droplet. Second, we show how the initial NP concentration modulates their relative dominance leading to a masterslave configuration. Secondary atomization of novel nanofuels is a crucial process since it enables an effective transport of dispersed NPs to the flame (a pre-requisite condition for NPs to burn). Contrarily, NP agglomeration at the droplet surface leads to shell formation thereby retaining NPs inside the droplet. In particular, we show that at dense concentrations shell formation (master process) dominates over secondary atomization (slave) while at dilute particle loading it is the high frequency bubble ejections (master) that disrupt shell formation (slave) through its rupture and continuous outflux of NPs. This results in distinct combustion residues at dilute and dense concentrations, thereby providing a method of manufacturing flame synthesized microstructures with distinct morphologies.

Comprehensive evaluation of multisatellite precipitation estimates over India using gridded rainfall data

This study presents a comprehensive evaluation of five widely used multisatellite precipitation estimates (MPEs) against 1 degrees x 1 degrees gridded rain gauge data set as ground truth over India. One decade observations are used to assess the performance of various MPEs (Climate Prediction Center (CPC)-South Asia data set, CPC Morphing Technique (CMORPH), Precipitation Estimation From Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission's Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA-3B42), and Global Precipitation Climatology Project). All MPEs have high detection skills of rain with larger probability of detection (POD) and smaller ``missing'' values. However, the detection sensitivity differs from one product (and also one region) to the other. While the CMORPH has the lowest sensitivity of detecting rain, CPC shows highest sensitivity and often overdetects rain, as evidenced by large POD and false alarm ratio and small missing values. All MPEs show higher rain sensitivity over eastern India than western India. These differential sensitivities are found to alter the biases in rain amount differently. All MPEs show similar spatial patterns of seasonal rain bias and root-mean-square error, but their spatial variability across India is complex and pronounced. The MPEs overestimate the rainfall over the dry regions (northwest and southeast India) and severely underestimate over mountainous regions (west coast and northeast India), whereas the bias is relatively small over the core monsoon zone. Higher occurrence of virga rain due to subcloud evaporation and possible missing of small-scale convective events by gauges over the dry regions are the main reasons for the observed overestimation of rain by MPEs. The decomposed components of total bias show that the major part of overestimation is due to false precipitation. The severe underestimation of rain along the west coast is attributed to the predominant occurrence of shallow rain and underestimation of moderate to heavy rain by MPEs. The decomposed components suggest that the missed precipitation and hit bias are the leading error sources for the total bias along the west coast. All evaluation metrics are found to be nearly equal in two contrasting monsoon seasons (southwest and northeast), indicating that the performance of MPEs does not change with the season, at least over southeast India. Among various MPEs, the performance of TMPA is found to be better than others, as it reproduced most of the spatial variability exhibited by the reference.

On the detection of human influence in extreme precipitation over India

Climate change is expected to influence extreme precipitation which in turn might affect risks of pluvial flooding. Recent studies on extreme rainfall over India vary in their definition of extremes, scales of analyses and conclusions about nature of changes in such extremes. Fingerprint-based detection and attribution (D&A) offer a formal way of investigating the presence of anthropogenic signals in hydroclimatic observations. There have been recent efforts to quantify human effects in the components of the hydrologic cycle at large scales, including precipitation extremes. This study conducts a D&A analysis on precipitation extremes over India, considering both univariate and multivariate fingerprints, using a standardized probability-based index (SPI) from annual maximum one-day (RX1D) and five-day accumulated (RX5D) rainfall. The pattern-correlation based fingerprint method is used for the D&A analysis. Transformation of annual extreme values to SPI and subsequent interpolation to coarser grids are carried out to facilitate comparison between observations and model simulations. Our results show that in spite of employing these methods to address scale and physical processes mismatch between observed and model simulated extremes, attributing changes in regional extreme precipitation to anthropogenic climate change is difficult. At very high (95%) confidence, no signals are detected for RX1D, while for the RX5D and multivariate cases only the anthropogenic (ANT) signal is detected, though the fingerprints are in general found to be noisy. The findings indicate that model simulations may underestimate regional climate system responses to increasing human forcings for extremes, and though anthropogenic factors may have a role to play in causing changes in extreme precipitation, their detection is difficult at regional scales and not statistically significant. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Room temperature ferromagnetism and white light emissive CdS:Cr nanoparticles synthesized by chemical co-precipitation method

Undoped and Cr (3% and 5%) doped CdS nanoparticles were synthesized by chemical co-precipitation method. The synthesized nanocrystalline particles are characterized by energy dispersive X-ray analysis (EDAX), scanning electron microscope (SEM), X-ray Diffraction (XRD), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), diffuse reflectance spectroscopy (DRS), photoluminescence (PL), Electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR), vibrating sample magnetometer (VSM) and Raman spectroscopy. XRD studies indicate that Cr doping in host CdS result a structural change from Cubic phase to mixed (cubic + hexagonal) phase. Due to quantum confinement effect, widening of the band gap is observed for undoped and Cr doped CdS nanoparticles compared to bulk CdS. The average particle size calculated from band gap values is in good agreement with the TEM study calculation and it is around 4-5 nm. A strong violet emission band consisting of two emission peaks is observed for undoped CdS nanoparticles, whereas for CdS:Cr nanoparticles, a broad emission band ranging from 420 nm to 730 nm with a maximum at similar to 587 nm is observed. The broad emission band is due to the overlapped emissions from variety of defects. EPR spectra of CdS:Cr samples reveal resonance signal at g = 2.143 corresponding to interacting Cr3+ ions. VSM studies indicate that the diamagnetic CdS nanoparticles are transform to ferromagnetic for 3% Cr3+ doping and the ferromagnetic nature is diminished with increasing the doping concentration to 5%. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Kinetic and Size Control of Polystyrene and Polyacrylic Octadecyl Ester Lattices Via Polymerization in O/W Microemulsions

The kinetic studies of the acrylic octadecyl ester and styrene polymerization in microemulsion systems, (1) cetyl pyridine bromide (CPDB)/t-butanol/styrene/water; (2) CPDB/t-butanol/toluene + acrylic octadecyl ester (1:1, w/v)/ water; (3) cetyl pyridine bromide/styrene/formamide, were made by using dynamic laser light scattering techniques (DLS). The mechanisms of nucleation of latex particles were discussed. The most possible nucleation location of the styrene and acrylic octadecyl ester microlatex particles in aqueous microemulsion system is in aqueous phase via homogeneous nucleation. Meanwhile, parts of microlatex particles are possibly produced via swollen micelles (microemulsions) and monomer droplets nucleation. On the other hand, the most possible nucleation location of the styrene microlatex particles in nonaqueous microemulsion system is inside monomer droplets. The relationship between the amount of monomer and the size of microlatex was also investigated. It has been found that the size of microlatex particles could be controlled by changing the amount of monomer. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Mechanism of nucleation and precipitation in Li containing Al-Zn-Mg-Cu alloys

Investigations on the aging hardening behavior of four Al-Li-Zn-Mg-Cu alloys were carried out using differential scanning calorimetry, transmission electron microscopy and hardness measurement. It is shown that the addition of Li inhibits the formation of Zn-rich G.P. zones in Al-Zn-Mg-Cu alloys. The dominant aging hardening precipitates is delta'(Al3Li) phase. Coarse T ((AlZn)(49)Mg-32) phase, instead of MgZn2, precipitates primarily on grain boundaries, and provides little strengthening. The multi-stop aging involving plastic deformation introduces in the matrix a high concentration of structural defects. These defects play different role on the nucleation of Zn-rich G.P. zones in different alloys. For the Li free alloy, structural defects act as vacancy sinks and tend to suppress the homogeneous precipitation of G.P. zones, while for the Li containing alloys, these defects promote the heterogeneous nucleation of G.P. zones and metastable MgZn2. A significant aging hardening effect is attained in deformed Li containing alloys due to the extra precipitation of fine MgZn2 in the matrix combined with deformation hardening.

Nucleated polymerization with secondary pathways. I. Time evolution of the principal moments.

Self-assembly processes resulting in linear structures are often observed in molecular biology, and include the formation of functional filaments such as actin and tubulin, as well as generally dysfunctional ones such as amyloid aggregates. Although the basic kinetic equations describing these phenomena are well-established, it has proved to be challenging, due to their non-linear nature, to derive solutions to these equations except for special cases. The availability of general analytical solutions provides a route for determining the rates of molecular level processes from the analysis of macroscopic experimental measurements of the growth kinetics, in addition to the phenomenological parameters, such as lag times and maximal growth rates that are already obtainable from standard fitting procedures. We describe here an analytical approach based on fixed-point analysis, which provides self-consistent solutions for the growth of filamentous structures that can, in addition to elongation, undergo internal fracturing and monomer-dependent nucleation as mechanisms for generating new free ends acting as growth sites. Our results generalise the analytical expression for sigmoidal growth kinetics from the Oosawa theory for nucleated polymerisation to the case of fragmenting filaments. We determine the corresponding growth laws in closed form and derive from first principles a number of relationships which have been empirically established for the kinetics of the self-assembly of amyloid fibrils.

Summary of Precipitation and Streamflow for Potrero and San Clemente Creeks in Water-Year 2007, Santa Lucia Preserve, Monterey County, California

In March 2007 CSU-Monterey Bay began hydrologic monitoring of Santa Lucia Preserve for the Santa Lucia Conservancy. This project is a continuation of monitoring begun by Balance Hydrologics as part of the permit requirements for land development. The purpose of this annual report is to present data summaries for the 2007 water year (October 1, 2006 to September 31, 2007). Rainfall in water year 2007 was very low, representing the 15 year drought rainfall. Streamflow was relatively low as well as indicated by baseflow conditions approaching the drought conditions of water-year 1991 (Croyle and Smith, 2007). Document contains 30 pages)

Downscaling of surface moisture flux and precipitation in the Ebro Valley (Spain) using analogues and analogues followed by random forests and multiple linear regression

In this paper, reanalysis fields from the ECMWF have been statistically downscaled to predict from large-scale atmospheric fields, surface moisture flux and daily precipitation at two observatories (Zaragoza and Tortosa, Ebro Valley, Spain) during the 1961-2001 period. Three types of downscaling models have been built: (i) analogues, (ii) analogues followed by random forests and (iii) analogues followed by multiple linear regression. The inputs consist of data (predictor fields) taken from the ERA-40 reanalysis. The predicted fields are precipitation and surface moisture flux as measured at the two observatories. With the aim to reduce the dimensionality of the problem, the ERA-40 fields have been decomposed using empirical orthogonal functions. Available daily data has been divided into two parts: a training period used to find a group of about 300 analogues to build the downscaling model (1961-1996) and a test period (19972001), where models' performance has been assessed using independent data. In the case of surface moisture flux, the models based on analogues followed by random forests do not clearly outperform those built on analogues plus multiple linear regression, while simple averages calculated from the nearest analogues found in the training period, yielded only slightly worse results. In the case of precipitation, the three types of model performed equally. These results suggest that most of the models' downscaling capabilities can be attributed to the analogues-calculation stage.

Influence of the Azores high on sea level pressure and wind, and on precipitation, in the Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean

ENGLISH: Intensification of the Azores high pressure cell in mid-year, with concomitant air flow from the Caribbean into the Pacific, is shown to be responsible for a secondary minimum of precipitation observed along the tropical Pacific coast of the Americas, and to have a measurable effect on wind and precipitation several hundred kilometers offshore. SPANISH: La intensificación de la célula de alta presión de las Azores a mediados del año, y la corriente de aire concomitante que entra al Pacífico procedente del Caribe, se demuestra que es la causante de un mínimo secundario de precipitación observado a lo largo de la costa tropical de las Américas en el Pacífico y que tiene un efecto mensurable sobre el viento y la precipitación varios cientos de kilómetros mar afuera. (PDF contains 23 pages.)

Iso-specific Ziegler-Natta polymerization of α-olefins with a single-component organoyttrium catalyst

The synthesis of a sterically tailored ligand array (M)_2((C_5H_2-2-Si(CH_3)_3-4-C(CH_3)_3)S_2i(CH_3)_2]("M_2Bp") (M = Li, 16; K, 19) is described. Transmetallation of Li_2Bp with YCl_3(THF)_3 affords exclusively the C_2 symmetric product rac-[BpY(µ_2-Cl)_2Li(THF)_2], 20. A X-ray crystal structure of 20 has been determined; triclinic, P1, a= 13.110 (8), b = 17.163 (15), c = 20.623 (14) Å, α = 104.02 (7), β = 99.38 (5), γ = 100.24 (6)° , Z = 4, R = 0.056. Transmetallation of K_2Bp with YCl_3(THF)_3 affords the halide free complex rac-BpYCl, 23. The corresponding rac-BpLaCl, 28, is prepared in an anlogous manner. In all cases the achiral meso isomer is not obtained since only for the racemic isomers are the unfavorable steric interactions between the Si(CH3)_3 groups in the narrow portion of the [Cp-M'-Cp] wedge avoided. Alkylation of 20 or 23 with LiCH(Si(CH_3)_3)_2 affords rac-BpYCH(Si(CH_3)_3)_2, 26 in good yield. Alkylation of 28 with LiCH(Si(CH_3)_3)_2 affords rac-BpLaCH(Si(CH_3)_3)_2 29. Hydrogenation of 26 cleanly affords the bridging hydride species [BpY(µ_2-H)]_2, 27, as the homochiral (R,R) and (S,S) dimeric pairs. 26 is an efficient initiator for the polymerization of ethylene to high molecular weight linear polyethylene. 27 catalyzes the polymerization of propylene (25% v/v in methylcyclohexane) and neat samples of 1-butene, 1-pentene, 1-hexene to moderately high molecular weight polymers: polypropylene (M_n = 4,200, PDI 2.32, T_m 157 °C); poly-1-butene (M_n = 8,500, PDI 3.44, T_m 105 °C); poly-1-pentene (M_n = 20,000, PDI 1.99, T_m 73 °C); poly-1-hexene (M_n = 24,000, PDI 1.75, T_m < 25 °C). ^(13)C NMR spectra at the pentad analysis level indicates that the degree of isotacticity is 99% mmmm for all polymer samples. 27 is the first single component iso-specific α-olefin polymerization catalyst. The presumed origins of the high isospecificity are presented.

Aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions in marine stratocumulus clouds

Marine stratocumulus clouds are generally optically thick and shallow, exerting a net cooling influence on climate. Changes in atmospheric aerosol levels alter cloud microphysics (e.g., droplet size) and cloud macrophysics (e.g., liquid water path, cloud thickness), thereby affecting cloud albedo and Earth’s radiative balance. To understand the aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions and to explore the dynamical effects, three-dimensional large-eddy simulations (LES) with detailed bin-resolved microphysics are performed to explore the diurnal variation of marine stratocumulus clouds under different aerosol levels and environmental conditions. It is shown that the marine stratocumulus cloud albedo is sensitive to aerosol perturbation under clean background conditions, and to environmental conditions such as large-scale divergence rate and free tropospheric humidity.

Based on the in-situ Eastern Pacific Emitted Aerosol Cloud Experiment (E-PEACE) during Jul. and Aug. 2011, and A-Train satellite observation of 589 individual ship tracks during Jun. 2006-Dec. 2009, an analysis of cloud albedo responses in ship tracks is presented. It is found that the albedo response in ship tracks depends on the mesoscale cloud structure, the free tropospheric humidity, and cloud top height. Under closed cell structure (i.e., cloud cells ringed by a perimeter of clear air), with sufficiently dry air above cloud tops and/or higher cloud top heights, the cloud albedo can become lower in ship tracks. Based on the satellite data, nearly 25% of ship tracks exhibited a decreased albedo. The cloud macrophysical responses are crucial in determining both the strength and the sign of the cloud albedo response to aerosols.

To understand the aerosol indirect effects on global marine warm clouds, multisensory satellite observations, including CloudSat, MODIS, CALIPSO, AMSR-E, ECMWF, CERES, and NCEP, have been applied to study the sensitivity of cloud properties to aerosol levels and to large scale environmental conditions. With an estimate of anthropogenic aerosol fraction, the global aerosol indirect radiative forcing has been assessed.

As the coupling among aerosol, cloud, precipitation, and meteorological conditions in the marine boundary layer is complex, the integration of LES modeling, in-situ aircraft measurements, and global multisensory satellite data analyses improves our understanding of this complex system.