Retrospective analysis of a nonforecasted rain-on-snow flood in the Alps – a matter of model limitations or unpredictable nature?

A rain-on-snow flood occurred in the Bernese Alps, Switzerland, on 10 October 2011, and caused significant damage. As the flood peak was unpredicted by the flood forecast system, questions were raised concerning the causes and the predictability of the event. Here, we aimed to reconstruct the anatomy of this rain-on-snow flood in the Lötschen Valley (160 km2) by analyzing meteorological data from the synoptic to the local scale and by reproducing the flood peak with the hydrological model WaSiM-ETH (Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model). This in order to gain process understanding and to evaluate the predictability. The atmospheric drivers of this rain-on-snow flood were (i) sustained snowfall followed by (ii) the passage of an atmospheric river bringing warm and moist air towards the Alps. As a result, intensive rainfall (average of 100 mm day-1) was accompanied by a temperature increase that shifted the 0° line from 1500 to 3200 m a.s.l. (meters above sea level) in 24 h with a maximum increase of 9 K in 9 h. The south-facing slope of the valley received significantly more precipitation than the north-facing slope, leading to flooding only in tributaries along the south-facing slope. We hypothesized that the reason for this very local rainfall distribution was a cavity circulation combined with a seeder-feeder-cloud system enhancing local rainfall and snowmelt along the south-facing slope. By applying and considerably recalibrating the standard hydrological model setup, we proved that both latent and sensible heat fluxes were needed to reconstruct the snow cover dynamic, and that locally high-precipitation sums (160 mm in 12 h) were required to produce the estimated flood peak. However, to reproduce the rapid runoff responses during the event, we conceptually represent likely lateral flow dynamics within the snow cover causing the model to react "oversensitively" to meltwater. Driving the optimized model with COSMO (Consortium for Small-scale Modeling)-2 forecast data, we still failed to simulate the flood because COSMO-2 forecast data underestimated both the local precipitation peak and the temperature increase. Thus we conclude that this rain-on-snow flood was, in general, predictable, but requires a special hydrological model setup and extensive and locally precise meteorological input data. Although, this data quality may not be achieved with forecast data, an additional model with a specific rain-on-snow configuration can provide useful information when rain-on-snow events are likely to occur.

Establishing the skill of climate field reconstruction techniques for precipitation with pseudoproxy experiments

This study aims at assessing the skill of several climate field reconstruction techniques (CFR) to reconstruct past precipitation over continental Europe and the Mediterranean at seasonal time scales over the last two millennia from proxy records. A number of pseudoproxy experiments are performed within the virtual reality ofa regional paleoclimate simulation at 45 km resolution to analyse different aspects of reconstruction skill. Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA), two versions of an Analog Method (AM) and Bayesian hierarchical modeling (BHM) are applied to reconstruct precipitation from a synthetic network of pseudoproxies that are contaminated with various types of noise. The skill of the derived reconstructions is assessed through comparison with precipitation simulated by the regional climate model. Unlike BHM, CCA systematically underestimates the variance. The AM can be adjusted to overcome this shortcoming, presenting an intermediate behaviour between the two aforementioned techniques. However, a trade-off between reconstruction-target correlations and reconstructed variance is the drawback of all CFR techniques. CCA (BHM) presents the largest (lowest) skill in preserving the temporal evolution, whereas the AM can be tuned to reproduce better correlation at the expense of losing variance. While BHM has been shown to perform well for temperatures, it relies heavily on prescribed spatial correlation lengths. While this assumption is valid for temperature, it is hardly warranted for precipitation. In general, none of the methods outperforms the other. All experiments agree that a dense and regularly distributed proxy network is required to reconstruct precipitation accurately, reflecting its high spatial and temporal variability. This is especially true in summer, when a specifically short de-correlation distance from the proxy location is caused by localised summertime convective precipitation events.

Climatology of Vb cyclones, physical mechanisms and their impact on extreme precipitation over Central Europe

Cyclones, which develop over the western Mediterranean and move northeastward are a major source of extreme weather and known to be responsible for heavy precipitation over the northern side of the Alpine range and Central Europe. As the relevant processes triggering these so-called Vb events and their impact on extreme precipitation are not yet fully understood, this study focuses on gaining insight into the dynamics of past events. For this, a cyclone detection and tracking tool is applied to the ERA-Interim reanalysis (1979–2013) to identify prominent Vb situations. Precipitation in the ERA-Interim and the E-OBS data sets is used to evaluate case-to-case precipitation amounts and to assess consistency between the two data sets. Both data sets exhibit high variability in precipitation amounts among different Vb events. While only 23 % of all Vb events are associated with extreme precipitation, around 15 % of all extreme precipitation days (99 percentile) over the northern Alpine region and Central Europe are induced by Vb events, although Vb cyclones are rare events (2.3 per year). To obtain a better understanding of the variability within Vb events, the analysis of the 10 heaviest and lowest precipitation Vb events reveals noticeable differences in the state of the atmosphere. These differences are most pronounced in the geopotential height and potential vorticity field, indicating a much stronger cyclone for heavy precipitation events. The related differences in wind direction are responsible for the moisture transport around the Alps and the orographical lifting along the northern slopes of the Alps. These effects are the main reasons for a disastrous outcome of Vb events, and consequently are absent in the Vb events associated with low precipitation. Hence, our results point out that heavy precipitation related to Vb events is mainly related to large-scale dynamics rather than to thermodynamic processes.

Flood triggering in Switzerland: the role of daily to monthly preceding precipitation

Determining the role of different precipitation periods for peak discharge generation is crucial for both projecting future changes in flood probability and for short- and medium-range flood forecasting. In this study, catchment-averaged daily precipitation time series are analyzed prior to annual peak discharge events (floods) in Switzerland. The high number of floods considered – more than 4000 events from 101 catchments have been analyzed – allows to derive significant information about the role of antecedent precipitation for peak discharge generation. Based on the analysis of precipitation times series, a new separation of flood-related precipitation periods is proposed: (i) the period 0 to 1 day before flood days, when the maximum flood-triggering precipitation rates are generally observed, (ii) the period 2 to 3 days before flood days, when longer-lasting synoptic situations generate "significantly higher than normal" precipitation amounts, and (iii) the period from 4 days to 1 month before flood days when previous wet episodes may have already preconditioned the catchment. The novelty of this study lies in the separation of antecedent precipitation into the precursor antecedent precipitation (4 days before floods or earlier, called PRE-AP) and the short range precipitation (0 to 3 days before floods, a period when precipitation is often driven by one persistent weather situation like e.g., a stationary low-pressure system). A precise separation of "antecedent" and "peak-triggering" precipitation is not attempted. Instead, the strict definition of antecedent precipitation periods permits a direct comparison of all catchments. The precipitation accumulating 0 to 3 days before an event is the most relevant for floods in Switzerland. PRE-AP precipitation has only a weak and region-specific influence on flood probability. Floods were significantly more frequent after wet PRE-AP periods only in the Jura Mountains, in the western and eastern Swiss plateau, and at the outlet of large lakes. As a general rule, wet PRE-AP periods enhance the flood probability in catchments with gentle topography, high infiltration rates, and large storage capacity (karstic cavities, deep soils, large reservoirs). In contrast, floods were significantly less frequent after wet PRE-AP periods in glacial catchments because of reduced melt. For the majority of catchments however, no significant correlation between precipitation amounts and flood occurrences is found when the last 3 days before floods are omitted in the precipitation amounts. Moreover, the PRE-AP was not higher for extreme floods than for annual floods with a high frequency and was very close to climatology for all floods. The fact that floods are not significantly more frequent nor more intense after wet PRE-AP is a clear indicator of a short discharge memory of Pre-Alpine, Alpine and South Alpine Swiss catchments. Our study poses the question whether the impact of long-term precursory precipitation for floods in such catchments is not overestimated in the general perception. The results suggest that the consideration of a 3–4 days precipitation period should be sufficient to represent (understand, reconstruct, model, project) Swiss Alpine floods.

Dissolution-Precipitation in Porous Media: Experiments and Modelling

The evolution of porosity due to dissolution/precipitation processes of minerals and the associated change of transport parameters are of major interest for natural geological environments and engineered underground structures. We designed a reproducible and fast to conduct 2D experiment, which is flexible enough to investigate several process couplings implemented in the numerical code OpenGeosys-GEM (OGS-GEM). We investigated advective-diffusive transport of solutes, effect of liquid phase density on advective transport, and kinetically controlled dissolution/precipitation reactions causing porosity changes. In addition, the system allowed to investigate the influence of microscopic (pore scale) processes on macroscopic (continuum scale) transport. A Plexiglas tank of dimension 10 × 10 cm was filled with a 1 cm thick reactive layer consisting of a bimodal grain size distribution of celestite (SrSO4) crystals, sandwiched between two layers of sand. A barium chloride solution was injected into the tank causing an asymmetric flow field to develop. As the barium chloride reached the celestite region, dissolution of celestite was initiated and barite precipitated. Due to the higher molar volume of barite, its precipitation caused a porosity decrease and thus also a decrease in the permeability of the porous medium. The change of flow in space and time was observed via injection of conservative tracers and analysis of effluents. In addition, an extensive post-mortem analysis of the reacted medium was conducted. We could successfully model the flow (with and without fluid density effects) and the transport of conservative tracers with a (continuum scale) reactive transport model. The prediction of the reactive experiments initially failed. Only the inclusion of information from post-mortem analysis gave a satisfactory match for the case where the flow field changed due to dissolution/precipitation reactions. We concentrated on the refinement of post-mortem analysis and the investigation of the dissolution/precipitation mechanisms at the pore scale. Our analytical techniques combined scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and synchrotron X-ray micro-diffraction/micro-fluorescence performed at the XAS beamline (Swiss Light Source). The newly formed phases include an epitaxial growth of barite micro-crystals on large celestite crystals (epitaxial growth) and a nano-crystalline barite phase (resulting from the dissolution of small celestite crystals) with residues of celestite crystals in the pore interstices. Classical nucleation theory, using well-established and estimated parameters describing barite precipitation, was applied to explain the mineralogical changes occurring in our system. Our pore scale investigation showed limits of the continuum scale reactive transport model. Although kinetic effects were implemented by fixing two distinct rates for the dissolution of large and small celestite crystals, instantaneous precipitation of barite was assumed as soon as oversaturation occurred. Precipitation kinetics, passivation of large celestite crystals and metastability of supersaturated solutions, i.e. the conditions under which nucleation cannot occur despite high supersaturation, were neglected. These results will be used to develop a pore scale model that describes precipitation and dissolution of crystals at the pore scale for various transport and chemical conditions. Pore scale modelling can be used to parameterize constitutive equations to introduce pore-scale corrections into macroscopic (continuum) reactive transport models. Microscopic understanding of the system is fundamental for modelling from the pore to the continuum scale.

Salinity of the Eocene Arctic Ocean from oxygen isotope analysis of fish bone carbonate

Stable isotope analysis was performed on the structural carbonate of fish bone apatite from early and early middle Eocene samples (~55 to ~45 Ma) recently recovered from the Lomonosov Ridge by Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 302 (the Arctic Coring Expedition). The d18O values of the Eocene samples ranged from -6.84 per mil to -2.96 per mil Vienna Peedee belemnite, with a mean value of -4.89 per mil, compared to 2.77 per mil for a Miocene sample in the overlying section. An average salinity of 21 to 25 per mil was calculated for the Eocene Arctic, compared to 35 per mil for the Miocene, with lower salinities during the Paleocene Eocene thermal maximum, the Azolla event at ~48.7 Ma, and a third previously unidentified event at ~47.6 Ma. At the Azolla event, where the organic carbon content of the sediment reaches a maximum, a positive d13C excursion was observed, indicating unusually high productivity in the surface waters.

Grain-size analysis and geochemistry of sediment core GeoB13602-1

Grain-size, terrigenous element and rock magnetic remanence data of Quaternary marine sediments retrieved at the NW African continental margin off Gambia (gravity core GeoB 13602-1, 13°32.71' N, 17°50.96'W) were jointly analyzed by end-member (EM) unmixing methods to distinguish and budget past terrigenous fluxes. We compare and cross-validate the identified single-parameter EM systems and develop a numerical strategy to calculate associated multi-parameter EM properties. One aeolian and two fluvial EMs were found. The aeolian EM is much coarser than the fluvial EMs and is associated with a lower goethite/hematite ratio, a higher relative concentration of magnetite and lower Al/Si and Fe/K ratios. Accumulation rates and grain sizes of the fluvial sediment appear to be primarily constrained by shore distance (i.e., sea-level fluctuations) and to a lesser extent by changes in hinterland precipitation. High dust fluxes occurred during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and during Heinrich Stadials (HS) while the fluvial input remained unchanged. Our approach reveals that the LGM dust fluxes were ~7 times higher than today's. However, by far the highest dust accumulation occurred during HS 1 (~300 g m**-2 yr** -1), when dust fluxes were ~80 fold higher than today. Such numbers have not yet been reported for NW Africa, and emphasize strikingly different environmental conditions during HSs. They suggest that deflation rate and areal extent of HSs dust sources were much larger due to retreating vegetation covers. Beyond its regional and temporal scope, this study develops new, in principle, generally applicable strategies for multi-method end-member interpretation, validation and flux budgeting calibration.

Geochemical processes and rare earth element analysis in cold-seep pore waters of Hydrate Ridge, northeast Pacific Ocean

The concentrations of rare earth elements (REEs), sulphate, hydrogen sulphide, total alkalinity, calcium, magnesium and phosphate were measured in shallow (<12 cm below seafloor) pore waters from cold-seep sediments on the northern and southern summits of Hydrate Ridge, offshore Oregon. Downward-decreasing sulphate and coevally increasing sulphide concentrations reveal sulphate reductionas dominant early diagenetic process from ~2 cm depth downwards. A strong increase of total dissolved REE concentrations is evident immediately below the sediment-water interface, which can be related to early diagenetic release of REEs into pore water resulting from the remineralization of particulate organic matter. The highest pore water REE concentrations were measured close to the sediment-water interface at ~2 cm depth. Distinct shale normalized REE patterns point to particulate organic matter and iron oxides as main REE sources in the upper ~2-cm depth interval. In general, the pore waters have shalenormalized patterns reflecting heavy REE (HREE) enrichment, which suggests preferential complexation of HREEs with carbonate ions. Below ~2 cm depth, a downward decrease in REE correlates with a decrease in pore water calcium concentrations. At this depth, the anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM) coupled to sulphate reduction increases carbonate alkalinity through the production of bicarbonate, which results in the precipitation of carbonate minerals. It seems therefore likely that the REEs and calcium are consumed during vast AOM-induced precipitation of carbonate in shallow Hydrate Ridge sediments. The analysis of pore waters from Hydrate Ridge shed new light on early diagenetic processes at cold seeps, corroborating the great potential of REEs to identify geochemical processes and to constrain environmental conditions.

(Table 1) Correlation of precipitation and winter mass balance (bw) at Storbreen, Norway

Measurements of winter balance (bw) and summer balance (bs) have been carried out at Storbreen since 1949. Here we apply a simple mass balance model to study the climate sensitivity and to reconstruct the mass balance series prior to 1949. The model is calibrated and validated with data from an automatic weather station (AWS) operating in the ablation zone of Storbreen since 2001. Regression analysis revealed that bw was best modelled using precipitation data southwest of the glacier. Results from the model compared well with reported mass balance values for the period 1949-2006, obtained correlations (r) for bw and bs varied between 0.83 and 0.87 depending on model set up. Reconstruction of the mass balance series for the period 1924/1925-1948/1949 suggested a cumulative mass deficit of c. 30 m w.e. mainly due to highly negative summer balances, but also lower bw than the average for 1949-2006. Calculated change in specific mass balance for a ±1°C change in air temperature was ±0.55 m w.e., whereas a ±10 % increase in precipitation represented a change of ± 0.20 m w.e. Model results further indicated that for a 2°C warming, the ablation season will be extended by c. 30 days and that the period of ice melt at the AWS location will increase from c. 40 to c. 80 days.

Solid phase analysis of sediment core GeoB9309-1 from the Zambezi (or Mozambique) deep-sea fan

The Zambezi deep-sea fan, the largest of its kind along the east African continental margin, is poorly studied to date, despite its potential to record marine and terrestrial climate signals in the southwest Indian Ocean. Therefore, gravity core GeoB 9309-1, retrieved from 1219 m water depth, was investigated for various geophysical (magnetic susceptibility, porosity, colour reflectance) and geochemical (pore water and sediment geochemistry, Fe and P speciation) properties. Onboard and onshore data documented a sulphate/methane transition (SMT) zone at ~ 450-530 cm sediment depth, where the simultaneous consumption of pore water sulphate and methane liberates hydrogen sulphide and bi-carbonate into the pore space. This leads to characteristic changes in the sediment and pore water chemistry, as the reduction of primary Fe (oxyhydr)oxides, the precipitation of Fe sulphides, and the mobilization of Fe (oxyhydr)oxide-bound P. These chemical processes also lead to a marked decrease in magnetic susceptibility. Below the SMT, we find a reduction of porosity, possibly due to pore space cementation by authigenic minerals. Formation of the observed geochemical, magnetic and mineralogical patterns requires a fixation of the SMT at this distinct sediment depth for a considerable time-which we calculated to be ~ 10 000 years assuming steady-state conditions-following a period of rapid upward migration towards this interval. We postulate that the worldwide sea-level rise at the last glacial/interglacial transition (~ 10 000 years B.P.) most probably caused the fixation of the SMT at its present position, through drastically reduced sediment delivery to the deep-sea fan. In addition, we report an internal redistribution of P occurring around the SMT, closely linked to the (de)coupling of sedimentary Fe and P, and leaving a characteristic pattern in the solid P record. By phosphate re-adsorption onto Fe (oxyhydr)oxides above, and formation of authigenic P minerals (e.g. vivianite) below the SMT, deep-sea fan deposits may potentially act as long-term sinks for P.

Pollen analysis and age model of sediment core GIK-15856-2

Pollen and spores from a deep-sea core located west of the Niger Delta record an uninterrupted area of lowland rain forest in West Africa from Guinea to Cameroon during the last Interglacial and the early Holocene. During other periods of the last 150 ka, a savanna corridor between the western - Guinean - and the eastern - Congolian - part of the African lowland rain forest existed. This so-called Dahomey Gap had its largest extension during Glacial Stages 6, 4, 3, and 2. Reduced surface salinity in the eastern Gulf of Guinea as recorded by dinoflagellate cysts indicates sufficient precipitation for extensive forest growth during Stages 5 and 1. The large modern extension of dry forest and savanna in West Africa cannot be solely explained by climatic factors. Mangrove expansion in and west of the Niger Delta was largest during the phases of sea-level rise of Stages 5 and 1. During Stages 6, 4, 3, and 2, shelf areas were exposed and the area of the mangrove swamps was minimal.

Stable isotope analysis and biomarkers of carbonates from the Columbia River in southwestern Washington, USA

Exotic limestone masses with silicified fossils, enclosed within deep-water marine siliciclastic sediments of the Early to Middle Miocene Astoria Formation, are exposed along the north shore of the Columbia River in southwestern Washington, USA. Samples from four localities were studied to clarify the origin and diagenesis of these limestone deposits. The bioturbated and reworked limestones contain a faunal assemblage resembling that of modern and Cenozoic deep-water methane-seeps. Five phases make up the paragenetic sequence: (1) micrite and microspar; (2) fibrous, banded and botryoidal aragonite cement, partially replaced by silica or recrystallized to calcite; (3) yellow calcite; (4) quartz replacing carbonate phases and quartz cement; and (5) equant calcite spar and pseudospar. Layers of pyrite frequently separate different carbonate phases and generations, indicating periods of corrosion. Negative d13Ccarbonate values as low as -37.6 per mill V-PDB reveal an uptake of methane-derived carbon. In other cases, d13Ccarbonate values as high as 7.1 per mill point to a residual, 13C-enriched carbon pool affected by methanogenesis. Lipid biomarkers include 13C-depleted, archaeal 2,6,10,15,19-pentamethylicosane (PMI; d13C: -128 per mill), crocetane and phytane, as well as various iso- and anteiso-carbon chains, most likely derived from sulphate-reducing bacteria. The biomarker inventory proves that the majority of the carbonates formed as a consequence of sulphate-dependent anaerobic oxidation of methane. Silicification of fossils and early diagenetic carbonate cements as well as the precipitation of quartz cement - also observed in other methane-seep limestones enclosed in sediments with abundant diatoms or radiolarians - is a consequence of a preceding increase of alkalinity due to anaerobic oxidation of methane, inducing the dissolution of silica skeletons. Once anaerobic oxidation of methane has ceased, the pH drops again and silica phases can precipitate.

Temperature, precipitation and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from 1982 to 2009 in the Koshi River Basin of the Middle Himalayas

The aim of this paper is to find out if there is a significant difference in using NDVI dataset processed by harmonic analysis method to evaluate its dynamic and response to climate change, compared with the original data.

Measured daily precipitation sums over Central Sulawesi for the period 1981-1999

Data compiled within the IMPENSO project. The Impact of ENSO on Sustainable Water Management and the Decision-Making Community at a Rainforest Margin in Indonesia (IMPENSO), http://www.gwdg.de/~impenso, was a German-Indonesian research project (2003-2007) that has studied the impact of ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) on the water resources and the agricultural production in the PALU RIVER watershed in Central Sulawesi. ENSO is a climate variability that causes serious droughts in Indonesia and other countries of South-East Asia. The last ENSO event occurred in 1997. As in other regions, many farmers in Central Sulawesi suffered from reduced crop yields and lost their livestock. A better prediction of ENSO and the development of coping strategies would help local communities mitigate the impact of ENSO on rural livelihoods and food security. The IMPENSO project deals with the impact of the climate variability ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) on water resource management and the local communities in the Palu River watershed of Central Sulawesi, Indonesia. The project consists of three interrelated sub-projects, which study the local and regional manifestation of ENSO using the Regional Climate Models REMO and GESIMA (Sub-project A), quantify the impact of ENSO on the availability of water for agriculture and other uses, using the distributed hydrological model WaSiM-ETH (Sub-project B), and analyze the socio-economic impact and the policy implications of ENSO on the basis of a production function analysis, a household vulnerability analysis, and a linear programming model (Sub-project C). The models used in the three sub-projects will be integrated to simulate joint scenarios that are defined in collaboration with local stakeholders and are relevant for the design of coping strategies.