Shocks, Monetary Policy and Institutions: Explaining Unemployment Persistence in Persistence in “Europe” and the United States

This paper examines the rise in European unemployment since the 1970s by introducing endogenous growth into an otherwise standard New Keynesian model with capital accumulation and unemployment. We subject the model to an uncorrelated cost push shock, in order to mimic a scenario akin to the one faced by central banks at the end of the 1970s. Monetary policy implements a disinfl ation by following an interest feedback rule calibrated to an estimate of a Bundesbank reaction function. 40 quarters after the shock has vanished, unemployment is still about 1.8 percentage points above its steady state. Our model also broadly reproduces cross country differences in unemployment by drawing on cross country differences in the size of cost push shock and the associated disinfl ation, the monetary policy reaction function and the wage setting structure.

Two alternate mechanisms contribute to the persistence of interdependent lineages in Pogonomyrmex harvester ants.

Some populations of Pogonomyrmex harvester ants comprise pairs of highly differentiated lineages with queens mating at random with several males of their own and of the alternate lineage. These queens produce two types of diploid offspring, those fertilized by males of the queens' lineage which develop into new queens and those fertilized by males of the other lineage which mostly develop into functionally sterile workers. This unusual mode of genetic caste determination has been found in 26 populations and a total of four lineage pairs (F(1)-F(2), G(1)-G(2), H(1)-H(2) and J(1)-J(2)) have been described in these populations. Despite the fact that a few interlineage queens are produced, previous studies revealed that there is a complete lack of genetic introgression between lineages. Here we quantify the proportion of interlineage queens produced in each of the four lineage pairs and determine the fate of these queens. In the F(1)-F(2), G(1)-G(2) and H(1)-H(2) lineage pairs, interlineage queens were produced by a minority of colonies. These colonies exclusively produced interlineage queens and workers, suggesting that interlineage eggs can develop into queens in these three pairs of lineages in the absence of competition with pure-lineage brood. An analysis of three key stages of the colony life cycle revealed that colonies headed by interlineage queens failed to grow sufficiently to produce reproductive individuals. In laboratory comparisons, interlineage queens produced fewer viable eggs, with the effect that they raised fewer workers and lost more weight per worker produced than pure-lineage queens. In the J(1)-J(2) lineage pair, we did not find a single interlineage queen, raising the possibility that interlineage eggs have completely lost the ability to develop into queens in this lineage pair. Hence, two distinct mechanisms seem to account for the complete lack of between-lineage gene flow in the F(1)-F(2), G(1)-G(2), H(1)-H(2) and J(1)-J(2) lineage pairs.

Heterogeneous dynamics, aggregation and the persistence of economic shocks

It has been recently emphasized that, if individuals have heterogeneous dynamics, estimates of shock persistence based on aggregate data are significatively higher than those derived from its disaggregate counterpart. However, a careful examination of the implications of this statement on the various tools routinely employed to measure persistence is missing in the literature. This paper formally examines this issue. We consider a disaggregate linear model with heterogeneous dynamics and compare the values of several measures of persistence across aggregation levels. Interestingly, we show that the average persistence of aggregate shocks, as measured by the impulse response function (IRF) of the aggregate model or by the average of the individual IRFs, is identical on all horizons. This result remains true even in situations where the units are (short-memory) stationary but the aggregate process is long-memory or even nonstationary. In contrast, other popular persistence measures, such as the sum of the autoregressive coefficients or the largest autoregressive root, tend to be higher the higher the aggregation level. We argue, however, that this should be seen more as an undesirable property of these measures than as evidence of different average persistence across aggregation levels. The results are illustrated in an application using U.S. inflation data.

Analyzing aggregate real exchange rate persistence through the lens of sectoral data

In this paper we analyze the persistence of aggregate real exchange rates (RERs) for a group of EU-15 countries by using sectoral data. The tight relation between aggregate and sectoral persistence recently investigated by Mayoral (2008) allows us to decompose aggregate RER persistence into the persistence of its different subcomponents. We show that the distribution of sectoral persistence is highly heterogeneous and very skewed to the right, and that a limited number of sectors are responsible for the high levels of persistence observed at the aggregate level. We use quantile regression to investigate whether the traditional theories proposed to account for the slow reversion to parity (lack of arbitrage due to nontradibilities or imperfect competition and price stickiness) are able to explain the behavior of the upper quantiles of sectoral persistence. We conclude that pricing to market in the intermediate goods sector together with price stickiness have more explanatory power than variables related to the tradability of the goods or their inputs.

Species identification in mammals from mixed biological samples based on mitochondrial DNA control region length polymorphism.

The ability to identify the species origin of an unknown biological sample is relevant in the fields of human and wildlife forensics. However, the detection of several species mixed in the same sample still remains a challenge. We developed and tested a new approach for mammal DNA identification in mixtures of two or three species, based on the analysis of mitochondrial DNA control region interspecific length polymorphism followed by direct sequencing. Contrary to other published methods dealing with species mixtures, our protocol requires a single universal primer pair and is not based on a pre-defined panel of species. Amplicons can be separated either on agarose gels or using CE. The advantages and limitations of the assay are discussed under different conditions, such as variable template concentration, amplicon sizes and size difference among the amplicons present in the mixture. For the first time, this protocol provides a simple, reliable and flexible method for simultaneous identification of multiple mammalian species from mixtures, without any prior knowledge of the species involved.

Transitions in social complexity along elevational gradients reveal a combined impact of season length and development time on social evolution.

Eusociality is taxonomically rare, yet associated with great ecological success. Surprisingly, studies of environmental conditions favouring eusociality are often contradictory. Harsh conditions associated with increasing altitude and latitude seem to favour increased sociality in bumblebees and ants, but the reverse pattern is found in halictid bees and polistine wasps. Here, we compare the life histories and distributions of populations of 176 species of Hymenoptera from the Swiss Alps. We show that differences in altitudinal distributions and development times among social forms can explain these contrasting patterns: highly social taxa develop more quickly than intermediate social taxa, and are thus able to complete the reproductive cycle in shorter seasons at higher elevations. This dual impact of altitude and development time on sociality illustrates that ecological constraints can elicit dynamic shifts in behaviour, and helps explain the complex distribution of sociality across ecological gradients.

Does history of falling predict length of stay in post-scute geriatric rehabilitation?

Objectives: To investigate the associations between falls before¦hospital admission, falls during hospitalization, and length of stay in¦elderly people admitted to post-acute geriatric rehabilitation.¦Method: History of falling in the previous 12 months before admission¦was recorded among 249 older persons (mean age 82.3 ± 7.4 years,¦69.1% women) consecutively admitted to post-acute rehabilitation. Data¦on medical, functional and cognitive status were collected upon¦admission. Falls during hospitalization and length of stay were recorded¦at discharge.¦Results: Overall, 92 (40.4%) patients reported no fall in the 12 months¦before admission; 63(27.6%) reported 1 fall, and 73 (32.0%) reported¦multiple falls. Previous falls occurrence (one or more falls) was¦significantly associated with in-stay falls (19.9% of previous fallers fell¦during the stay vs 7.6% in patients without history of falling, P = .01),¦and with a longer length of stay (22.4 ± 10.1 days vs 27.1 ± 14.3 days,¦P = .01). In multivariate robust regression controlling for gender, age,¦functional and cognitive status, history of falling remained significantly¦associated with longer rehabilitation stay (2.8 days more than non¦fallers in single fallers, p = .05, and 3.3 days in multiple fallers, p = .0.1).¦Conclusion: History of falling in the 12 months prior to post acute¦geriatric rehabilitation is independently associated with a longer¦rehabilitation length of stay. Previous fallers also have an increased risk¦of falling during rehabilitation stay. This suggests that hospital fall¦prevention measures should particularly target these high risk patients.

Length of hospital stay and postdischarge mortality in patients with pulmonary embolism: a statewide perspective

BACKGROUND: The optimal length of stay (LOS) for patients with pulmonary embolism (PE) is unknown. Although reducing LOS is likely to save costs, the effects on patient safety are unclear. We sought to identify patient and hospital factors associated with LOS and assess whether LOS was associated with postdischarge mortality. METHODS: We evaluated patients discharged with a primary diagnosis of PE from 186 acute care hospitals in Pennsylvania (January 2000 through November 2002). We used discrete survival models to examine the association between (1) patient and hospital factors and the time to discharge and (2) LOS and postdischarge mortality within 30 days of presentation, adjusting for patient and hospital factors. RESULTS: Among 15 531 patient discharges with PE, the median LOS was 6 days, and postdischarge mortality rate was 3.3%. In multivariate analysis, patients from Philadelphia were less likely to be discharged on a given day (odds ratio [OR], 0.82; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.73-0.93), as were black patients (OR, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.82-0.94).The odds of discharge decreased notably with greater patient severity of illness and in patients without private health insurance. Adjusted postdischarge mortality was significantly higher for patients with an LOS of 4 days or less (OR, 1.55; 95% CI, 1.21-2.00) relative to those with an LOS of 5 to 6 days. CONCLUSIONS: Several hospital and patient factors were independently associated with LOS. Patients with a very short LOS had greater postdischarge mortality relative to patients with a typical LOS, suggesting that physicians may inappropriately select patients with PE for early discharge who are at increased risk of complications

Molecular identification of similar species of the genus Biomphalaria (Mollusca: Planorbidae) determined by a polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism

The freshwater snails Biomphalaria straminea, B. intermedia, B. kuhniana and B. peregrina, are morphologically similar; based on this similarity the first three species were therefore grouped in the complex B. straminea. The morphological identification of these species is based on characters such as vaginal wrinkling, relation between prepuce: penial sheath:deferens vas and number of muscle layers in the penis wall. In this study the polymerase chain reaction restriction fragment length polymorphism technique was used for molecular identification of these molluscs. This technique is based on the amplification of the internal transcribed spacer regions ITS1 e ITS2 of the ribosomal RNA gene and subsequent digestion of these fragments by restriction enzymes. Six enzymes were tested: Dde I, Mnl I, Hae III, Rsa I, Hpa II e Alu I. The restriction patterns obtained with DdeI presented the best profile for separation of the four species of Biomphalaria. The profiles obtained with all the enzymes were used to estimate the genetic distances among the species through analysis of common banding patterns.

Application of a roughness-length representation to parameterize energy loss in 3-D numerical simulations of large rivers

Recent technological advances in remote sensing have enabled investigation of the morphodynamics and hydrodynamics of large rivers. However, measuring topography and flow in these very large rivers is time consuming and thus often constrains the spatial resolution and reach-length scales that can be monitored. Similar constraints exist for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) studies of large rivers, requiring maximization of mesh-or grid-cell dimensions and implying a reduction in the representation of bedform-roughness elements that are of the order of a model grid cell or less, even if they are represented in available topographic data. These ``subgrid'' elements must be parameterized, and this paper applies and considers the impact of roughness-length treatments that include the effect of bed roughness due to ``unmeasured'' topography. CFD predictions were found to be sensitive to the roughness-length specification. Model optimization was based on acoustic Doppler current profiler measurements and estimates of the water surface slope for a variety of roughness lengths. This proved difficult as the metrics used to assess optimal model performance diverged due to the effects of large bedforms that are not well parameterized in roughness-length treatments. However, the general spatial flow patterns are effectively predicted by the model. Changes in roughness length were shown to have a major impact upon flow routing at the channel scale. The results also indicate an absence of secondary flow circulation cells in the reached studied, and suggest simpler two-dimensional models may have great utility in the investigation of flow within large rivers. Citation: Sandbach, S. D. et al. (2012), Application of a roughness-length representation to parameterize energy loss in 3-D numerical simulations of large rivers, Water Resour. Res., 48, W12501, doi: 10.1029/2011WR011284.

Persistence of EBV Antigen-Specific CD8 T Cell Clonotypes during Homeostatic Immune Reconstitution in Cancer Patients.

Persistent viruses are kept in check by specific lymphocytes. The clonal T cell receptor (TCR) repertoire against Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), once established following primary infection, exhibits a robust stability over time. However, the determinants contributing to this long-term persistence are still poorly characterized. Taking advantage of an in vivo clinical setting where lymphocyte homeostasis was transiently perturbed, we studied EBV antigen-specific CD8 T cells before and after non-myeloablative lympho-depleting chemotherapy of melanoma patients. Despite more advanced T cell differentiation, patients T cells showed clonal composition comparable to healthy individuals, sharing a preference for TRBV20 and TRBV29 gene segment usage and several co-dominant public TCR clonotypes. Moreover, our data revealed the presence of relatively few dominant EBV antigen-specific T cell clonotypes, which mostly persisted following transient lympho-depletion (TLD) and lymphocyte recovery, likely related to absence of EBV reactivation and de novo T cell priming in these patients. Interestingly, persisting clonotypes frequently co-expressed memory/homing-associated genes (CD27, IL7R, EOMES, CD62L/SELL and CCR5) supporting the notion that they are particularly important for long-lasting CD8 T cell responses. Nevertheless, the clonal composition of EBV-specific CD8 T cells was preserved over time with the presence of the same dominant clonotypes after non-myeloablative chemotherapy. The observed clonotype persistence demonstrates high robustness of CD8 T cell homeostasis and reconstitution.

Restriction fragment length polymorphism of 195 bp repeated satellite dna of Trypanosoma cruzi supports the existence of two phylogenetic groups

The restriction fragment length polymorphism of the 195 bp repeated DNA sequence of Trypanosoma cruzi was analyzed among 23 T. cruzi stocks giving a reliable picture of the whole phylogenetic variability of the species. The profiles observed with the enzymes Hinf I and Hae III were linked together and supported the existence of two groups. Group 1 shows a 195 bp repeated unit (Hinf I) and high molecular weight DNA (Hae III), while group 2 presents a ladder profile for each enzyme, which is a characteristic of tandemly repeated DNA. The two groups, respectively, clustered stocks pertaining to the two principal lineages evidenced by isoenzyme and RAPD markers. The congruence among these three independent genomic markers corroborates the existence of two real phylogenetic lineages in T. cruzi. The specific monomorphic profiles for each major phylogenetic lineage suggest the existence of ancient sexuality and cryptic biological speciation.

Polar gradients of the DYRK-family kinase Pom1 couple cell length with the cell cycle.

Cells normally grow to a certain size before they enter mitosis and divide. Entry into mitosis depends on the activity of Cdk1, which is inhibited by the Wee1 kinase and activated by the Cdc25 phosphatase. However, how cells sense their size for mitotic commitment remains unknown. Here we show that an intracellular gradient of the dual-specificity tyrosine-phosphorylation regulated kinase (DYRK) Pom1, which emanates from the ends of rod-shaped Schizosaccharomyces pombe cells, serves to measure cell length and control mitotic entry. Pom1 provides positional information both for polarized growth and to inhibit cell division at cell ends. We discovered that Pom1 is also a dose-dependent G2-M inhibitor. Genetic analyses indicate that Pom1 negatively regulates Cdr1 and Cdr2, two previously described Wee1 inhibitors of the SAD kinase family. This inhibition may be direct, because in vivo and in vitro evidence suggest that Pom1 phosphorylates Cdr2. Whereas Cdr1 and Cdr2 localize to a medial cortical region, Pom1 forms concentration gradients from cell tips that overlap with Cdr1 and Cdr2 in short cells, but not in long cells. Disturbing these Pom1 gradients leads to Cdr2 phosphorylation and imposes a G2 delay. In short cells, Pom1 prevents precocious M-phase entry, suggesting that the higher medial Pom1 levels inhibit Cdr2 and promote a G2 delay. Thus, gradients of Pom1 from cell ends provide a measure of cell length to regulate M-phase entry.

'Next generation' biogeography: towards understanding the drivers of species diversification and persistence

The drivers of species diversification and persistence are of great interest to current biogeography, especially in those global biodiversity hotspots' harbouring most of Earth's animal and plant life. Classical multispecies biogeographical work has yielded fascinating insights into broad-scale patterns of diversification, and DNA-based intraspecific phylogeographical studies have started to complement this picture at much finer temporal and spatial scales. The advent of novel next-generation sequencing (NGS) technologies provides the opportunity to greatly scale up the numbers of individuals, populations and species sampled, potentially merging intraspecific and interspecific approaches to biogeographical inference. Here, we outline these prospects and issues by using the example of an undisputed hotspot, the Cape of southern Africa. We outline the current state of knowledge on the biogeography of species diversification within the Cape, review the literature for phylogeographical evidence of its likely drivers and mechanisms, and suggest possible ways forward based on NGS approaches. We demonstrate the potential of these methods and current bioinformatic issues with the help of restriction-site-associated DNA (RAD) sequencing data for three highly divergent species of the Restionaceae, an important plant radiation in the Cape. A thorough understanding of the mechanisms that facilitate species diversification and persistence in spatially structured, species-rich environments will require the adoption of novel genomic and bioinformatic tools in biogeographical studies.