Data assimilation for marine monitoring and prediction: The MERCATOR operational assimilation systems and the MERSEA developments

During the past 15 years, a number of initiatives have been undertaken at national level to develop ocean forecasting systems operating at regional and/or global scales. The co-ordination between these efforts has been organized internationally through the Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE). The French MERCATOR project is one of the leading participants in GODAE. The MERCATOR systems routinely assimilate a variety of observations such as multi-satellite altimeter data, sea-surface temperature and in situ temperature and salinity profiles, focusing on high-resolution scales of the ocean dynamics. The assimilation strategy in MERCATOR is based on a hierarchy of methods of increasing sophistication including optimal interpolation, Kalman filtering and variational methods, which are progressively deployed through the Syst`eme d’Assimilation MERCATOR (SAM) series. SAM-1 is based on a reduced-order optimal interpolation which can be operated using ‘altimetry-only’ or ‘multi-data’ set-ups; it relies on the concept of separability, assuming that the correlations can be separated into a product of horizontal and vertical contributions. The second release, SAM-2, is being developed to include new features from the singular evolutive extended Kalman (SEEK) filter, such as three-dimensional, multivariate error modes and adaptivity schemes. The third one, SAM-3, considers variational methods such as the incremental four-dimensional variational algorithm. Most operational forecasting systems evaluated during GODAE are based on least-squares statistical estimation assuming Gaussian errors. In the framework of the EU MERSEA (Marine EnviRonment and Security for the European Area) project, research is being conducted to prepare the next-generation operational ocean monitoring and forecasting systems. The research effort will explore nonlinear assimilation formulations to overcome limitations of the current systems. This paper provides an overview of the developments conducted in MERSEA with the SEEK filter, the Ensemble Kalman filter and the sequential importance re-sampling filter.

Singular vector ensemble forecasting systems and the prediction of flow dependent uncertainty

The ECMWF ensemble weather forecasts are generated by perturbing the initial conditions of the forecast using a subset of the singular vectors of the linearised propagator. Previous results show that when creating probabilistic forecasts from this ensemble better forecasts are obtained if the mean of the spread and the variability of the spread are calibrated separately. We show results from a simple linear model that suggest that this may be a generic property for all singular vector based ensemble forecasting systems based on only a subset of the full set of singular vectors.

Comparison of energy evaluation systems and a mechanistic model for milk production by dairy cattle offered fresh grass-based diets

Grass-based diets are of increasing social-economic importance in dairy cattle farming, but their low supply of glucogenic nutrients may limit the production of milk. Current evaluation systems that assess the energy supply and requirements are based on metabolisable energy (ME) or net energy (NE). These systems do not consider the characteristics of the energy delivering nutrients. In contrast, mechanistic models take into account the site of digestion, the type of nutrient absorbed and the type of nutrient required for production of milk constituents, and may therefore give a better prediction of supply and requirement of nutrients. The objective of the present study is to compare the ability of three energy evaluation systems, viz. the Dutch NE system, the agricultural and food research council (AFRC) ME system, and the feed into milk (FIM) ME system, and of a mechanistic model based on Dijkstra et al. [Simulation of digestion in cattle fed sugar cane: prediction of nutrient supply for milk production with locally available supplements. J. Agric. Sci., Cambridge 127, 247-60] and Mills et al. [A mechanistic model of whole-tract digestion and methanogenesis in the lactating dairy cow: model development, evaluation and application. J. Anim. Sci. 79, 1584-97] to predict the feed value of grass-based diets for milk production. The dataset for evaluation consists of 41 treatments of grass-based diets (at least 0.75 g ryegrass/g diet on DM basis). For each model, the predicted energy or nutrient supply, based on observed intake, was compared with predicted requirement based on observed performance. Assessment of the error of energy or nutrient supply relative to requirement is made by calculation of mean square prediction error (MSPE) and by concordance correlation coefficient (CCC). All energy evaluation systems predicted energy requirement to be lower (6-11%) than energy supply. The root MSPE (expressed as a proportion of the supply) was lowest for the mechanistic model (0.061), followed by the Dutch NE system (0.082), FIM ME system (0.097) and AFRCME system(0.118). For the energy evaluation systems, the error due to overall bias of prediction dominated the MSPE, whereas for the mechanistic model, proportionally 0.76 of MSPE was due to random variation. CCC analysis confirmed the higher accuracy and precision of the mechanistic model compared with energy evaluation systems. The error of prediction was positively related to grass protein content for the Dutch NE system, and was also positively related to grass DMI level for all models. In conclusion, current energy evaluation systems overestimate energy supply relative to energy requirement on grass-based diets for dairy cattle. The mechanistic model predicted glucogenic nutrients to limit performance of dairy cattle on grass-based diets, and proved to be more accurate and precise than the energy systems. The mechanistic model could be improved by allowing glucose maintenance and utilization requirements parameters to be variable. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Interaction of sulphur-containing aroma compounds with proteins in both model systems and real food systems

Irreversible binding of key flavour disulphides to ovalbumin has been shown previously to occur in model systems. The extent of binding is determined by the availability of the sulphydryl groups to participate in disulphide exchange, influenced either by pH, or the state of the protein (native or heat-denatured). In this study, two further proteins, one with sulphydryl groups available in the native state (beta-lactoglobulin) and one with no sulphydryl groups in the native state (lysozyme) were used to confirm this hypothesis. When the investigation was extended to real food systems, a similar effect was shown when a commercial meat flavouring containing disulphides was added to heat-denatured ovalbumin. Furthermore, comparison of the volatiles generated from onions, cooked either alone, or in the presence of meat, showed a significant reduction of key onion-derived disulphides when cooked in the presence of meat, and an even greater reduction of trisulphides. These findings may have implications for consumer acceptance of food products; where these compounds are used as flavourings or where they occur naturally.

On rank, underdetermined systems and consistency

The concepts of rank, underdetermined systems and consistency in linear algebra are discussed in the context of a puzzle. The article begins with a specific example, moving on to a generalization of the example and then to the general n x n case. As well as providing a solution of the puzzle, the article aims to provide students with a greater understanding of these abstract ideas in linear algebra through the study of the puzzle.

Integrated Arable Farming Systems and their potential uptake in the UK

Integrated Arable Farming Systems are examined from the perspective of the farmer considering the use of such techniques, and data are presented which suggest that the uptake of the approach may expose the manager to a greater degree of risk. Observations are made about the possible uptake of such systems in the UK and the implications this may have for agricultural and environmental policy in general.

Distributed systems and multimedia

Edited book to support level 3 undergraduate understanding.

Hospital catering systems and their impact on the sensorial profile of foods provided to older patients in the UK

Impaired sensorial perception is very common in older people and low sensorial quality of foods is associated with decreased appetite and dietary intake. Hospital undernutrition in older patients could be linked to sensorial quality of hospital food if the quality were low or inappropriate for older people. The aim of this study was to examine changes in the sensorial quality of different foods that occur as a result of the food journey (i.e. freezing, regeneration, etc.) in the most common hospital catering systems in the UK. A trained sensory panel assessed sensorial descriptors of certain foods with and without the hospital food journey as it occurs in the in-house and cook/freeze systems. The results showed effects of the food journey on a small number of sensorial descriptors related to flavour, appearance and mouthfeel. The majority of these effects were due to temperature changes, which caused accumulation of condensation. A daily variation in sensorial descriptors was also detected and in some cases it was greater than the effect of the food journey. This study has shown that changes occur in the sensory quality of meals due to hospital food journeys, however these changes were small and are not expected to substantially contribute to acceptability or have a major role in hospital malnutrition.