Forecasting US bond default ratings allowing for previous and initial state dependence in an ordered probit model

In this paper we investigate the ability of a number of different ordered probit models to predict ratings based on firm-specific data on business and financial risks. We investigate models based on momentum, drift and ageing and compare them against alternatives that take into account the initial rating of the firm and its previous actual rating. Using data on US bond issuing firms rated by Fitch over the years 2000 to 2007 we compare the performance of these models in predicting the rating in-sample and out-of-sample using root mean squared errors, Diebold-Mariano tests of forecast performance and contingency tables. We conclude that initial and previous states have a substantial influence on rating prediction.

Sharp Bounds on Heterogeneous Individual Treatment Responses

This paper discusses how to identify individual-specific causal effects of an ordered discrete endogenous variable. The counterfactual heterogeneous causal information is recovered by identifying the partial differences of a structural relation. The proposed refutable nonparametric local restrictions exploit the fact that the pattern of endogeneity may vary across the level of the unobserved variable. The restrictions adopted in this paper impose a sense of order to an unordered binary endogeneous variable. This allows for a uni.ed structural approach to studying various treatment effects when self-selection on unobservables is present. The usefulness of the identi.cation results is illustrated using the data on the Vietnam-era veterans. The empirical findings reveal that when other observable characteristics are identical, military service had positive impacts for individuals with low (unobservable) earnings potential, while it had negative impacts for those with high earnings potential. This heterogeneity would not be detected by average effects which would underestimate the actual effects because different signs would be cancelled out. This partial identification result can be used to test homogeneity in response. When homogeneity is rejected, many parameters based on averages may deliver misleading information.

Integer Programming on Domains Containing Inseparable Ordered Paris

Using the integer programming approach introduced by Sethuraman, Teo, and Vohra (2003), we extend the analysis of the preference domains containing an inseparable ordered pair, initiated by Kalai and Ritz (1978). We show that these domains admit not only Arrovian social welfare functions \without ties," but also Arrovian social welfare functions \with ties," since they satisfy the strictly decomposability condition introduced by Busetto, Codognato, and Tonin (2012). Moreover, we go further in the comparison between Kalai and Ritz (1978)'s inseparability and Arrow (1963)'s single-peak restrictions, showing that the former condition is more \respectable," in the sense of Muller and Satterthwaite (1985).

Group strategy-proof social choice functions with binary ranges and arbitrary domains: characterization results

We define different concepts of group strategy-proofness for social choice functions. We discuss the connections between the defined concepts under different assumptions on their domains of definition. We characterize the social choice functions that satisfy each one of them and whose ranges consist of two alternatives, in terms of two types of basic properties.

Adding diversity to ruthenium (II)-arene anticancer (RAPTA) compounds via click chemistry: the influence of hydrophobic chains

The application of click chemistry to develop libraries of organometallic ruthenium-arene complexes with potential anticancer properties has been investigated. A series of ruthenium-imidazole-triazole complexes, with hydrophobic tails, were prepared from a common precursor via click chemistry. The tail could be attached to the ligand prior to coordination to the ruthenium complex were screened for cytotoxicity in tumourigenic and non-tumourigenic cell lines, and while the compounds were only moderately cytotoxic, good selectivity for tumourigenic cells were abserved.

Turnaround across diverse global supply chains using shared metrics and change methodology: The Case of Amer Sports Corporation

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to document the outcome of a global three-year long supply chain improvement initiative at a multi-national producer of branded sporting goods that is transforming from a holding structure to an integrated company. The case company is comprised of seven internationally well-known sport brands, which form a diverse set of independent sub-cases, on which the same supply chain metrics and change project approach was applied to improve supply chain performance. Design/methodology/approach - By using in-depth case study and statistical analysis the paper analyzes across the brands how supply chain complexity (SKU count), supply chain type (make or buy) and seasonality affect completeness and punctuality of deliveries, and inventory as the change project progresses. Findings - Results show that reduction in supply chain complexity improves delivery performance, but has no impact on inventory. Supply chain type has no impact on service level, but brands with in-house production are better in improving inventory than those with outsourced production. Non-seasonal business units improve service faster than seasonal ones, yet there is no impact on inventory. Research limitations/implications - The longitudinal data used for the analysis is biased with the general business trend, yet the rich data from different cases and three-years of data collection enables generalizations to a certain level. Practical implications - The in-depth case study serves as an example for other companies on how to initiate a supply chain improvement project across business units with tangible results. Originality/value - The seven sub-cases with their different characteristics on which the same improvement initiative was applied sets a unique ground for longitudinal analysis to study supply chain complexity, type and seasonality.

Pork Value Chains: A Comparison of Catalonia, Spain and Manitoba, Canada

The purpose of this paper is to provide a comparative analysis of pork value chains in Catalonia, Spain and Manitoba, Canada. Intensive hog production models were implemented in Catalonia in the 1960s as a result of agriculture crises and fostered by feedstuffs factories. The expansion of the hog sector in Manitoba is more recent (in the 1990s) and brought about in large part by the opening of the Maple Leaf Meats processing plant in Brandon, Manitoba. This plant is capable of processing 90,000 hogs per week. Both hog production models ‐ the ‘older’ one in Catalonia (Spain) and the ‘newer’ in Manitoba‐ have been, until recently, examples of success. Inventories and production have been increasing substantially and both regions have proven to have great export potential. Recently, however, tensions have been developing with the hog production models of both regions, particularly as they relate to environmental concerns. The purpose of the paper is to compare the value chains with respect to their origins (e.g. supply a growing demand for pork, ensure farm profitability) and present states (e.g. environmental concerns, profitability). Keywords: pork value chain, hog farms, agri‐food studies. JEL: Q10, Q13, O57

Differential roles of T cell receptor alpha and beta chains in ligand binding among H-2Kd-restricted cytolytic T lymphocyte clones specific for a photoreactive Plasmodium berghei circumsporozoite peptide derivative.

To study the interaction of T cell receptor with its ligand, a complex of a major histocompatibility complex molecule and a peptide, we derived H-2Kd-restricted cytolytic T lymphocyte clones from mice immunized with a Plasmodium berghei circumsporozoite peptide (PbCS) 252-260 (SYIPSAEKI) derivative containing photoreactive Nepsilon-[4-azidobenzoyl] lysine in place of Pro-255. This residue and Lys-259 were essential parts of the epitope recognized by these clones. Most of the clones expressed BV1S1A1 encoded beta chains along with specific complementary determining region (CDR) 3beta regions but diverse alpha chain sequences. Surprisingly, all T cell receptors were preferentially photoaffinity labeled on the alpha chain. For a representative T cell receptor, the photoaffinity labeled site was located in the Valpha C-strand. Computer modeling suggested the presence of a hydrophobic pocket, which is formed by parts of the Valpha/Jalpha C-, F-, and G-strands and adjacent CDR3alpha residues and structured to be able to avidly bind the photoreactive ligand side chain. We previously found that a T cell receptor specific for a PbCS peptide derivative containing this photoreactive side chain in position 259 similarly used a hydrophobic pocket located between the junctional CDR3 loops. We propose that this nonpolar domain in these locations allow T cell receptors to avidly and specifically bind epitopes containing non-peptidic side chains.

Binary classification of dyslipidemia from the waist-to-hip ratio and body mass index: a comparison of linear, logistic, and CART models.

BACKGROUND: We sought to improve upon previously published statistical modeling strategies for binary classification of dyslipidemia for general population screening purposes based on the waist-to-hip circumference ratio and body mass index anthropometric measurements. METHODS: Study subjects were participants in WHO-MONICA population-based surveys conducted in two Swiss regions. Outcome variables were based on the total serum cholesterol to high density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio. The other potential predictor variables were gender, age, current cigarette smoking, and hypertension. The models investigated were: (i) linear regression; (ii) logistic classification; (iii) regression trees; (iv) classification trees (iii and iv are collectively known as "CART"). Binary classification performance of the region-specific models was externally validated by classifying the subjects from the other region. RESULTS: Waist-to-hip circumference ratio and body mass index remained modest predictors of dyslipidemia. Correct classification rates for all models were 60-80%, with marked gender differences. Gender-specific models provided only small gains in classification. The external validations provided assurance about the stability of the models. CONCLUSIONS: There were no striking differences between either the algebraic (i, ii) vs. non-algebraic (iii, iv), or the regression (i, iii) vs. classification (ii, iv) modeling approaches. Anticipated advantages of the CART vs. simple additive linear and logistic models were less than expected in this particular application with a relatively small set of predictor variables. CART models may be more useful when considering main effects and interactions between larger sets of predictor variables.

Estructura de datos avanzadas : clases disjuntas, montículos, árboles de búsqueda

En aquest treball s'amplia la implementació en Java de les estructures de dades iniciada per Esteve Mariné, utilitzant el seu disseny bàsic. Concretament, s'ha fet la programació de les estructures de a) classes disjuntes, utilitzant els algorismes de llistes encadenades i amb estructura d'arbre, b) monticles, amb els algorismes binari, binomial i de Fibonacci, i c) arbres de recerca basats en l'algorisme d'arbre binari vermell-negre, el qual complementa els dos ja existents amb algorismes d'encadenaments i AVL. Per a examinar l'evolució de les estructures, s'ha preparat un visualitzador gràfic interactiu amb l'usuari que permet fer les operacions bàsiques de l'estructura. Amb aquest entorn és possible desar les estructures, tornar a reproduir-les i desfer i tornar a repetir les operacions fetes sobre l'estructura. Finalment, aporta una metodologia, amb visualització mitjançant gràfics, de l'avaluació comparativa dels algorismes implementats, que permet modificar els paràmetres d'avaluació com ara nombre d'elements que s'han de tractar, algorismes que s'han de comparar i nombre de repeticions. Les dades obtingudes es poden exportar per a analitzar-les posteriorment.

Binary proposal for assessing quality of Open Access Institutional Repositories : the case of Spanish repositories

The reason for this study is to propose a new quantitative approach on how to assess the quality of Open Access University Institutional Repositories. The results of this new approach are tested in the Spanish University Repositories. The assessment method is based in a binary codification of a proposal of features that objectively describes the repositories. The purposes of this method are assessing the quality and an almost automatically system for updating the data of the characteristics. First of all a database was created with the 38 Spanish institutional repositories. The variables of analysis are presented and explained either if they are coming from bibliography or are a set of new variables. Among the characteristics analyzed are the features of the software, the services of the repository, the features of the information system, the Internet visibility and the licenses of use. Results from Spanish universities ARE provided as a practical example of the assessment and for having a picture of the state of the development of the open access movement in Spain.

Subjective health assessments and active labor market participation of older men: evidence from a semiparametric binary choice model with nonadditive correlated individual-specific effects

We use panel data from the U. S. Health and Retirement Study, 1992-2002, to estimate the effect of self-assessed health limitations on the active labor market participation of older men. Self-assessments of health are likely to be endogenous to labor supply due to justification bias and individual-specific heterogeneity in subjective evaluations. We address both concerns. We propose a semiparametric binary choice procedure that incorporates nonadditive correlated individual-specific effects. Our estimation strategy identifies and estimates the average partial effects of health and functioning on labor market participation. The results indicate that poor health plays a major role in labor market exit decisions.

A functional and structural study of the major metalloprotease secreted by the pathogenic fungus Aspergillus fumigatus.

Fungalysins are secreted fungal peptidases with the ability to degrade the extracellular matrix proteins elastin and collagen and are thought to act as virulence factors in diseases caused by fungi. Fungalysins constitute a unique family among zinc-dependent peptidases that bears low sequence similarity to known bacterial peptidases of the thermolysin family. The crystal structure of the archetype of the fungalysin family, Aspergillus fumigatus metalloprotease (AfuMep), has been obtained for the first time. The 1.8 Å resolution structure of AfuMep corresponds to that of an autoproteolyzed proenzyme with separate polypeptide chains corresponding to the N-terminal prodomain in a binary complex with the C-terminal zinc-bound catalytic domain. The prodomain consists of a tandem of cystatin-like folds whose C-terminal end is buried into the active-site cleft of the catalytic domain. The catalytic domain harbouring the key catalytic zinc ion and its ligands, two histidines and one glutamic acid, undergoes a conspicuous rearrangement of its N-terminal end during maturation. One key positively charged amino-acid residue and the C-terminal disulfide bridge appear to contribute to its structural-functional properties. Thus, structural, biophysical and biochemical analysis were combined to provide a deeper comprehension of the underlying properties of A. fumigatus fungalysin, serving as a framework for the as yet poorly known metallopeptidases from pathogenic fungi.