Optimal release strategies for biological control agents: an application of stochastic dynamic programming to population management

1. Establishing biological control agents in the field is a major step in any classical biocontrol programme, yet there are few general guidelines to help the practitioner decide what factors might enhance the establishment of such agents. 2. A stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) approach, linked to a metapopulation model, was used to find optimal release strategies (number and size of releases), given constraints on time and the number of biocontrol agents available. By modelling within a decision-making framework we derived rules of thumb that will enable biocontrol workers to choose between management options, depending on the current state of the system. 3. When there are few well-established sites, making a few large releases is the optimal strategy. For other states of the system, the optimal strategy ranges from a few large releases, through a mixed strategy (a variety of release sizes), to many small releases, as the probability of establishment of smaller inocula increases. 4. Given that the probability of establishment is rarely a known entity, we also strongly recommend a mixed strategy in the early stages of a release programme, to accelerate learning and improve the chances of finding the optimal approach.

Using stochastic dynamic programming to determine optimal fire management for Banksia ornata

1. A model of the population dynamics of Banksia ornata was developed, using stochastic dynamic programming (a state-dependent decision-making tool), to determine optimal fire management strategies that incorporate trade-offs between biodiversity conservation and fuel reduction. 2. The modelled population of B. ornata was described by its age and density, and was exposed to the risk of unplanned fires and stochastic variation in germination success. 3. For a given population in each year, three management strategies were considered: (i) lighting a prescribed fire; (ii) controlling the incidence of unplanned fire; (iii) doing nothing. 4. The optimal management strategy depended on the state of the B. ornata population, with the time since the last fire (age of the population) being the most important variable. Lighting a prescribed fire at an age of less than 30 years was only optimal when the density of seedlings after a fire was low (< 100 plants ha(-1)) or when there were benefits of maintaining a low fuel load by using more frequent fire. 5. Because the cost of management was assumed to be negligible (relative to the value of the persistence of the population), the do-nothing option was never the optimal strategy, although lighting prescribed fires had only marginal benefits when the mean interval between unplanned fires was less than 20-30 years.

Modelling socially optimal land allocations for sugar cane growing in North Queensland: a linked mathematical programming and choice modelling study

A modelling framework is developed to determine the joint economic and environmental net benefits of alternative land allocation strategies. Estimates of community preferences for preservation of natural land, derived from a choice modelling study, are used as input to a model of agricultural production in an optimisation framework. The trade-offs between agricultural production and environmental protection are analysed using the sugar industry of the Herbert River district of north Queensland as an example. Spatially-differentiated resource attributes and the opportunity costs of natural land determine the optimal tradeoffs between production and conservation for a range of sugar prices.

Debt Maturity: Is Long-Term Debt Optimal?

We model and calibrate the arguments in favor and against short-term and long-term debt. These arguments broadly include: maturity premium, sustainability, and service smoothing. We use a dynamic-equilibrium model with tax distortions and government outlays uncertainty, and model maturity as the fraction of debt that needs to be rolled over every period. In the model, the benefits of defaulting are tempered by higher future interest rates. We then calibrate our artificial economy and solve for the optimal debt maturity for Brazil as an example of a developing country and the US as an example of a mature economy. We obtain that the calibrated costs from defaulting on long-term debt more than offset costs associated with short-term debt. Therefore, short-term debt implies higher welfare levels.

Adjusting prices in the multiple-partners assignment game

Starting with an initial price vector, prices are adjusted in order to eliminate the excess demand and at the same time to keep the transfers to the sellers as low as possible. In each step of the auction, to which set of sellers should those transfers be made is the key issue in the description of the algorithm. We assume additively separable utilities and introduce a novel distinction by considering multiple sellers owing multiple identical objects and multiple buyers with an exogenously defined quota, consuming more than one object but at most one unit of a seller`s good and having multi-dimensional payoffs. This distinction induces a necessarily more complicated construction of the over-demanded sets than the constructions of these sets for the other assignment games. For this approach, our mechanism yields the buyer-optimal competitive equilibrium payoff, which equals the buyer-optimal stable payoff. The symmetry of the model allows to getting the seller-optimal stable payoff and the seller-optimal competitive equilibrium payoff can then be also derived.

Optimal reserve management and sovereign debt

Most models currently used to determine optimal foreign reserve holdings take the level of international debt as given. However, given the sovereign`s willingness-to-pay incentive problems, reserve accumulation may reduce sustainable debt levels. In addition, assuming constant debt levels does not allow addressing one of the puzzles behind using reserves as a means to avoid the negative effects of crisis: why do not sovereign countries reduce their sovereign debt instead? To study the joint decision of holding sovereign debt and reserves, we construct a stochastic dynamic equilibrium model calibrated to a sample of emerging markets. We obtain that the reserve accumulation does not play a quantitatively important role in this model. In fact, we find the optimal policy is not to hold reserves at all. This finding is robust to considering interest rate shocks, sudden stops, contingent reserves and reserve dependent output costs. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reserve price commitments in auctions

It is well known that the optimal auction-one that maximizes the seller's expected revenue-can be implemented using a standard auction format with a suitably chosen reserve price. This reserve price is above the seller's value of retaining the object and the mechanism requires a commitment not to sell the object below the reserve. This commitment is what makes the reserve valuable to the seller. However, in practice, a reserve price commits the seller to sell the object if the reserve is reached, but does not commit her to withhold the object from sale if bidding falls short of the reserve. In this note we investigate whether reserve prices remain valuable for the seller when she may negotiate with the highest bidder if the reserve is not met. We show that the value of the reserve price may be completely undermined if the seller is a sufficiently weak bargainer. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Constipation in intensive care unit: Incidence and risk factors

Purpose: Although gastrointestinal motility disorders are common in critically ill patients, constipation and its implications have received very little attention. We aimed to determine the incidence of constipation to find risk factors and its implications in critically ill patients Materials and Methods: During a 6-month period, we enrolled all patients admitted to an intensive care unit from an universitary hospital who stayed 3 or more days. Patients submitted to bowel surgery were excluded. Results: Constipation occurred in 69.9% of the patients. There was no difference between constipated and not constipated in terms of sex, age, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II, type of admission (surgical, clinical, or trauma), opiate use, antibiotic therapy, and mechanical ventilation. Early (<24 hours) enteral nutrition was associated with less constipation, a finding that persisted at multivariable analysis (P < .01). Constipation was not associated with greater intensive care unit or mortality, length of stay, or days free from mechanical ventilation. Conclusions: Constipation is very common among critically ill patients. Early enteral nutrition is associated with earlier return of bowel function. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bedside estimation of recruitable alveolar collapse and hyperdistension by electrical impedance tomography

To present a novel algorithm for estimating recruitable alveolar collapse and hyperdistension based on electrical impedance tomography (EIT) during a decremental positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) titration. Technical note with illustrative case reports. Respiratory intensive care unit. Patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome. Lung recruitment and PEEP titration maneuver. Simultaneous acquisition of EIT and X-ray computerized tomography (CT) data. We found good agreement (in terms of amount and spatial location) between the collapse estimated by EIT and CT for all levels of PEEP. The optimal PEEP values detected by EIT for patients 1 and 2 (keeping lung collapse < 10%) were 19 and 17 cmH(2)O, respectively. Although pointing to the same non-dependent lung regions, EIT estimates of hyperdistension represent the functional deterioration of lung units, instead of their anatomical changes, and could not be compared directly with static CT estimates for hyperinflation. We described an EIT-based method for estimating recruitable alveolar collapse at the bedside, pointing out its regional distribution. Additionally, we proposed a measure of lung hyperdistension based on regional lung mechanics.

Optimal estimation of one-parameter quantum channels

We explore the task of optimal quantum channel identification and in particular, the estimation of a general one-parameter quantum process. We derive new characterizations of optimality and apply the results to several examples including the qubit depolarizing channel and the harmonic oscillator damping channel. We also discuss the geometry of the problem and illustrate the usefulness of using entanglement in process estimation.

Transfusion Requirements After Cardiac Surgery The TRACS Randomized Controlled Trial

Context Perioperative red blood cell transfusion is commonly used to address anemia, an independent risk factor for morbidity and mortality after cardiac operations; however, evidence regarding optimal blood transfusion practice in patients undergoing cardiac surgery is lacking. Objective To define whether a restrictive perioperative red blood cell transfusion strategy is as safe as a liberal strategy in patients undergoing elective cardiac surgery. Design, Setting, and Patients The Transfusion Requirements After Cardiac Surgery (TRACS) study, a prospective, randomized, controlled clinical noninferiority trial conducted between February 2009 and February 2010 in an intensive care unit at a university hospital cardiac surgery referral center in Brazil. Consecutive adult patients (n=502) who underwent cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass were eligible; analysis was by intention-to-treat. Intervention Patients were randomly assigned to a liberal strategy of blood transfusion (to maintain a hematocrit >= 30%) or to a restrictive strategy (hematocrit >= 24%). Main Outcome Measure Composite end point of 30-day all-cause mortality and severe morbidity (cardiogenic shock, acute respiratory distress syndrome, or acute renal injury requiring dialysis or hemofiltration) occurring during the hospital stay. The noninferiority margin was predefined at -8% (ie, 8% minimal clinically important increase in occurrence of the composite end point). Results Hemoglobin concentrations were maintained at a mean of 10.5 g/dL(95% confidence interval [CI], 10.4-10.6) in the liberal-strategy group and 9.1 g/dL (95% CI, 9.09.2) in the restrictive-strategy group (P<.001). A total of 198 of 253 patients (78%) in the liberal-strategy group and 118 of 249 (47%) in the restrictive-strategy group received a blood transfusion (P<.001). Occurrence of the primary end point was similar between groups (10% liberal vs 11% restrictive; between-group difference, 1% [95% CI, -6% to 4%]; P=.85). Independent of transfusion strategy, the number of transfused red blood cell units was an independent risk factor for clinical complications or death at 30 days (hazard ratio for each additional unit transfused, 1.2 [95% CI, 1.1-1.4]; P=.002). Conclusion Among patients undergoing cardiac surgery, the use of a restrictive perioperative transfusion strategy compared with a more liberal strategy resulted in noninferior rates of the combined outcome of 30-day all-cause mortality and severe morbidity. Trial Registration clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT01021631 JAMA. 2010; 304(14):1559-1567 www.jama.com

Effects of Optimal Medical Treatment With or Without Coronary Revascularization on Angina and Subsequent Revascularizations in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and Stable Ischemic Heart Disease

Background-In the Bypass Angioplasty Revascularization Investigation 2 Diabetes (BARI 2D) trial, an initial strategy of coronary revascularization and optimal medical treatment (REV) compared with an initial optimal medical treatment with the option of subsequent revascularization (MED) did not reduce all-cause mortality or the composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, and stroke in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and stable ischemic heart disease. In the same population, we tested whether the REV strategy was superior to the MED strategy in preventing worsening and new angina and subsequent coronary revascularizations. Methods and Results-Among the 2364 men and women (mean age, 62.4 years) with type 2 diabetes mellitus, documented coronary artery disease, and myocardial ischemia, 1191 were randomized to the MED and 1173 to the REV strategy preselected in the percutaneous coronary intervention (796) and coronary artery bypass graft (377) strata. Compared with the MED strategy, the REV strategy at the 3-year follow-up had a lower rate of worsening angina (8% versus 13%; P < 0.001), new angina (37% versus 51%; P = 0.001), and subsequent coronary revascularizations (18% versus 33%; P < 0.001) and a higher rate of angina-free status (66% versus 58%; P = 0.003). The coronary artery bypass graft stratum patients were at higher risk than those in the percutaneous coronary intervention stratum, and had the greatest benefits from REV. Conclusions-In these patients, the REV strategy reduced the occurrence of worsening angina, new angina, and subsequent coronary revascularizations more than the MED strategy. The symptomatic benefits were observed particularly for high-risk patients.

Optimal quantum measurements for phase-shift estimation in optical interferometry

Quantum information theory, applied to optical interferometry, yields a 1/n scaling of phase uncertainty Delta phi independent of the applied phase shift phi, where n is the number of photons in the interferometer. This 1/n scaling is achieved provided that the output state is subjected to an optimal phase measurement. We establish this scaling law for both passive (linear) and active (nonlinear) interferometers and identify the coefficient of proportionality. Whereas a highly nonclassical state is required to achieve optimal scaling for passive interferometry, a classical input state yields a 1/n scaling of phase uncertainty for active interferometry.