Non-monotone insurance contracts and their empirical consequences

The goal of this paper is to show the possibility of a non-monotone relation between coverage ans risk which has been considered in the literature of insurance models since the work of Rothschild and Stiglitz (1976). We present an insurance model where the insured agents have heterogeneity in risk aversion and in lenience (a prevention cost parameter). Risk aversion is described by a continuous parameter which is correlated with lenience and for the sake of simplicity, we assume perfect correlation. In the case of positive correlation, the more risk averse agent has higher cosr of prevention leading to a higher demand for coverage. Equivalently, the single crossing property (SCP) is valid and iplies a positive correlation between overage and risk in equilibrium. On the other hand, if the correlation between risk aversion and lenience is negative, not only may the SCP be broken, but also the monotonocity of contracts, i.e., the prediction that high (low) risk averse types choose full (partial) insurance. In both cases riskiness is monotonic in risk aversion, but in the last case there are some coverage levels associated with two different risks (low and high), which implies that the ex-ante (with respect to the risk aversion distribution) correlation between coverage and riskiness may have every sign (even though the ex-post correlation is always positive). Moreover, using another instrument (a proxy for riskiness), we give a testable implication to desentangle single crossing ans non single croosing under an ex-post zero correlation result: the monotonicity of coverage as a function os riskiness. Since by controlling for risk aversion (no asymmetric information), coverage is monotone function of riskiness, this also fives a test for asymmetric information. Finally, we relate this theoretical results to empirical tests in the recent literature, specially the Dionne, Gouruéroux and Vanasse (2001) work. In particular, they found an empirical evidence that seems to be compatible with asymmetric information and non single crossing in our framework. More generally, we build a hidden information model showing how omitted variables (asymmetric information) can bias the sign of the correlation of equilibrium variables conditioning on all observable variables. We show that this may be the case when the omitted variables have a non-monotonic relation with the observable ones. Moreover, because this non-dimensional does not capture this deature. Hence, our main results is to point out the importance of the SPC in testing predictions of the hidden information models.

Non-monotone insurence contracts and their empirical consequences

The goal of t.his paper is to show the possibility of a non-monot.one relation between coverage and risk which has been considered in the literature of insurance models since the work of Rothschild and Stiglitz (1976). We present an insurance model where the insured agents have heterogeneity in risk aversion and in lenience (a prevention cost parameter). Risk aversion is described by a continuou.'l parameter which is correlated with lenience and, for the sake of simplicity, we assume perfect correlation. In the case of positive correlation, the more risk averse agent has higher cost of prevention leading to a higher demand for coverage. Equivalently, the single crossing property (SCP) is valid and implies a positive correlation between coverage and risk in equilibrium. On the other hand, if the correlation between risk aversion and lenience is negative, not only may the sep be broken, but also the monotonicity of contracts, i.e., the prediction that high (Iow) risk averse types choose full (partial) insurance. In both cases riskiness is monotonic in risk aversion, but in the last case t,here are some coverage leveIs associated with two different risks (low and high), which implies that the ex-ante (with respect to the risk aversion distribution) correlation bet,ween coverage and riskiness may have every sign (even though the ex-post correlation is always positive). Moreover, using another instrument (a proxy for riskiness), we give a testable implication to disentangle single crossing and non single crossing under an ex-post zero correlation result: the monotonicity of coverage as a function of riskiness. Since by controlling for risk aversion (no asymmetric informat, ion), coverage is a monotone function of riskiness, this also gives a test for asymmetric information. Finally, we relate this theoretical results to empirica! tests in the recent literature, specially the Dionne, Gouriéroux and Vanasse (2001) work. In particular, they found an empirical evidence that seems to be compatible with asymmetric information and non single crossing in our framework. More generally, we build a hidden information model showing how omitted variabIes (asymmetric information) can bias the sign of the correlation of equilibrium variabIes conditioning on ali observabIe variabIes. We show that this may be t,he case when the omitted variabIes have a non-monotonic reIation with t,he observable ones. Moreover, because this non-monotonic reIat,ion is deepIy reIated with the failure of the SCP in one-dimensional screening problems, the existing lit.erature on asymmetric information does not capture t,his feature. Hence, our main result is to point Out the importance of t,he SCP in testing predictions of the hidden information models.

Estimation of Maximal Work Rate Based on the 6-Minute Walk Test and Fat-Free Mass in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Accuracy of six minute walk test, stair test and spirometry using maximal oxygen uptake as gold standard

OBJETIVO: Determinar a acurácia das variáveis: tempo de escada (tTE), potência de escada (PTE), teste de caminhada (TC6) e volume expiratório forçado (VEF1) utilizando o consumo máximo de oxigênio (VO2máx) como padrão-ouro. MÉTODOS: Os testes foram realizados em 51 pacientes. O VEF1 foi obtido através da espirometria. O TC6 foi realizado em corredor plano de 120m. O TE foi realizado em escada de 6 lances obtendo-se tTE e PTE. O VO2máx foi obtido por ergoespirometria, utilizando o protocolo de Balke. Foram calculados a correlação linear de Pearson (r) e os valores de p, entre VO2máx e variáveis. Para o cálculo da acurácia, foram obtidos os pontos de corte, através da curva característica operacional (ROC). A estatística Kappa (k) foi utilizada para cálculo da concordância. RESULTADOS: Obteve-se as acurácias: tTE - 86%, TC6 - 80%, PTE - 71%, VEF1(L) - 67%, VEF1% - 63%. Para o tTE e TC6 combinados em paralelo, obteve-se sensibilidade de 93,5% e em série, especificidade de 96,4%. CONCLUSÃO: O tTE foi a variável que apresentou a melhor acurácia. Quando combinados o tTE e TC6 podem ter especificidade e sensibilidade próxima de 100%. Estes testes deveriam ser mais usados rotineiramente, especialmente quando a ergoespirometria para a medida de VO2máx não é disponível.

Effect of the aerobic capacity on the validity of the anaerobic threshold for determination of the maximal lactate steady state in cycling

The maximal lactate steady state (MLSS) is the highest blood lactate concentration that can be identified as maintaining a steady state during a prolonged submaximal constant workload. The objective of the present study was to analyze the influence of the aerobic capacity on the validity of anaerobic threshold (AT) to estimate the exercise intensity at MLSS (MLSS intensity) during cycling. Ten untrained males (UC) and 9 male endurance cyclists (EC) matched for age, weight and height performed one incremental maximal load test to determine AT and two to four 30-min constant submaximal load tests on a mechanically braked cycle ergometer to determine MLSS and MLSS intensity. AT was determined as the intensity corresponding to 3.5 mM blood lactate. MLSS intensity was defined as the highest workload at which blood lactate concentration did not increase by more than 1 mM between minutes 10 and 30 of the constant workload. MLSS intensity (EC = 282.1 ± 23.8 W; UC = 180.2 ± 24.5 W) and AT (EC = 274.8 ± 24.9 W; UC = 187.2 ± 28.0 W) were significantly higher in trained group. However, there was no significant difference in MLSS between EC (5.0 ± 1.2 mM) and UC (4.9 ± 1.7 mM). The MLSS intensity and AT were not different and significantly correlated in both groups (EC: r = 0.77; UC: r = 0.81). We conclude that MLSS and the validity of AT to estimate MLSS intensity during cycling, analyzed in a cross-sectional design (trained x sedentary), do not depend on the aerobic capacity.

Effect of aerobic training status on both maximal lactate steady state and critical power

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Determination of the lactate threshold and maximal blood lactate steady state intensity in aged rats

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

PHYSIOLOGICAL and PERCEIVED EXERTION RESPONSES AT INTERMITTENT CRITICAL POWER and INTERMITTENT MAXIMAL LACTATE STEADY STATE

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

ACUTE EFFECT of STATIC STRETCHING on RATE of FORCE DEVELOPMENT and MAXIMAL VOLUNTARY CONTRACTION IN OLDER WOMEN

Gurjao, ALD, Goncalves, R, de Moura, RF, and Gobbi, S. Acute effect of static stretching on rate of force development and maximal voluntary contraction in older women. J Strength Cond Res 23(7): 2149-2154, 2009-The purpose of this study was to investigate, in older women, the acute effect of static stretching (SS) on both muscle activation and force output. Twenty-three older women (64.6 +/- 7.1 yr) participated in the study. The maximal voluntary contraction (MVC), rate of force development (RFD) (50, 100, 150, and 200 ms relative to onset of muscular contraction), and peak RFD (PRFD) (the steepest slope of the curve during the first 200 ms) were tested under 2 randomly separate conditions: SS and control (C). Electromyographic (EMG) activity of the vastus medialis (VM), vastus lateralis (VL), and biceps femoris (BF) muscles also was assessed. The MVC was significantly lower (p < 0.05) in the 3 trials of SS when compared with the C condition (control: 925.0 +/- 50.9 N; trial 1 : 854.3 +/- 55.3 N; trial 2 : 863.1 +/- 52.2 N; and trial 3 : 877.5 +/- 49.9 N). PRFD showed a significant decrease only for the first 2 trials of SS when compared with the C condition (control: 2672.3 +/- 259.1 N/s; trial 1 : 2296.6 +/- 300.7 N/s; and trial 2 : 2197.9 +/- 246.3 N/s). However, no difference was found for RFD (50, 100, 150, and 200 ms relative to onset of muscular contraction). The EMG activity for VM, VL, and BF was not significantly different between the C and SS conditions. In conclusion, the older women's capacity to produce muscular force decreased after their performance of SS exercises. The mechanisms responsible for this effect do not appear to be related to muscle activation. Thus, if flexibility is to be trained, it is recommended that SS does not occur just before the performance of activities that require high levels of muscular force.

The highest intensity and the shortest duration permitting attainment of maximal oxygen uptake during cycling: effects of different methods and aerobic fitness level

The aims of this study were: (1) to verify the validity of previous proposed models to estimate the lowest exercise duration (T (LOW)) and the highest intensity (I (HIGH)) at which VO(2)max is reached (2) to test the hypothesis that parameters involved in these models, and hence the validity of these models are affected by aerobic training status. Thirteen cyclists (EC), eleven runners (ER) and ten untrained (U) subjects performed several cycle-ergometer exercise tests to fatigue in order to determine and estimate T (LOW) (ET (LOW)) and I (HIGH) (EI (HIGH)). The relationship between the time to achieved VO(2)max and time to exhaustion (T (lim)) was used to estimate ET (LOW). EI (HIGH) was estimated using the critical power model. I (HIGH) was assumed as the highest intensity at which VO2 was equal or higher than the average of VO(2)max values minus one typical error. T (LOW) was considered T (lim) associated with I (HIGH). No differences were found in T (LOW) between ER (170 +/- 31 s) and U (209 +/- 29 s), however, both showed higher values than EC (117 +/- 29 s). I (HIGH) was similar between U (269 +/- 73 W) and ER (319 +/- 50 W), and both were lower than EC (451 +/- 33 W). EI (HIGH) was similar and significantly correlated with I-HIGH only in U (r = 0.87) and ER (r = 0.62). ET (LOW) and T (LOW) were different only for U and not significantly correlated in all groups. These data suggest that the aerobic training status affects the validity of the proposed models for estimating I (HIGH).

Second-order statistics for equal gain and maximal ratio diversity-combining reception

Exact and closed-form expressions for the level crossing rate and average fade duration are presented for equal gain combining and maximal ratio combining schemes, assuming an arbitrary number of independent branches in a Rayleigh environment. The analytical results are thoroughly validated by simulation.

The validity of critical speed determined from track cycling for identification of the maximal lactate steady state

The objective of this study was to determine the critical speed (CS) for track cycling and to assess whether a lactate steady state occurs at this speed. Fourteen competitive cyclists performed the following tests on an official cycling track (333.3 m): 1) incremental test for determination of the intensity corresponding to 4 mM of blood lactate (onset of blood lactate accumulation, OBLA) and maximal oxygen uptake (VO(2)max); 2) CS: 3 maximal bouts for distances of 2, 4 and 6 km executed in random order and with a period of recovery of 40 to 50 min between bouts. CS was determined for each subject from the linear regression between the distance and the time taking to cycle it; 3) Endurance test in which subjects were instructed to pedal at 100% of their individually determined CS for 30 min. At the 10(th) and 30(th) min (or upon exhaustion), 25 mul of blood were collected from ear lobe for later analysis of blood lactate [Lac]b. An increase less than or equal to1 mM between 10 and 30 min of exercise was considered as the criterion for the occurrence of the lactate steady state. CS (49.6 +/- 8.6 ml.kg(-1).min(-1); 36.9 +/- 2.7 km.h(-1)) was significantly higher than OBLA (43.7 8.0 ml.kg(-1).min(-1); 35.24 +/- 2.6 km.h(-1)) although the two parameters were highly correlated (r=0.97). During the endurance test, only 8 of the 14 subjects completed the 30 min period at CS. of these 8 subjects, only 2 presented a lactate steady state. Time to exhaustion at CS was 20.3 +/- 1.6 min for the remaining 6 subjects. The 12 subjects who did not reach a lactate steady state presented mean [Lac]b values of 7.4 +/- 1.3 mM at 10 min and of 9.4 +/- 1.9 mM at the end of the test (exhaustion), characterizing an exercise intensity of high lactacidemia. on the basis of the present results, we can conclude that CS determined by a track cycling test seems to overestimate the intensity of the maximal lactate steady state for most subjects.

LEFT-VENTRICULAR MAXIMAL SYSTOLIC ELASTANCE CALCULATED BY A COMBINATION OF M-MODE ECHOCARDIOGRAPHY AND STANDARD MANOMETRY

1. A method for obtaining the end-systolic left ventricular (LV) pressure-diameter and stress-diameter relationships in man was critically analyzed.2. Pressure-diameter and stress-diameter relationships were determined throughout the cardiac cycle by combining standard LV manometry with M-mode echocardiography. Nine adult patients with heart disease and without heart failure were studied during intracardiac catheterization under three different conditions of arterial pressure, i.e., basal (B) condition (mean +/- SD systolic pressure, 102 +/- 10 mmHg) and two stable states of arterial hypertension (H(I), 121 +/- 12 mmHg; H(II), 147 +/- 17 mmHg) induced by venous infusion of phenylephrine after parasympathetic autonomic blockade with 0.04 mg/kg atropine.3. Significant reflex heart rate variation with arterial hypertension was observed (B, 115 +/- 20 bpm; H(I), 103 +/- 14 bpm; H(II), 101 +/- 13 bpm) in spite of the parasympathetic blockade with atropine. The linear end-systolic pressure-diameter and stress-diameter relationships ranged from 53.0 to 160.0 mmHg/cm and from 97.0 to 195.0 g/cm3, respectively.4. The end-systolic LV pressure-diameter and stress-diameter relationship lines presented high and variable slopes. The slopes, which are indicators of myocardial contractility, are susceptible to modifications by small deviations in the measurement of the ventricular diameter or by delay in the pressure curve recording.