Understanding the low-temperature limitations to forest growth through calibration of a forest dynamics model with tree-ring data

The sensitivity of altitudinal and latitudinal tree-line ecotones to climate change, particularly that of temperature, has received much attention. To improve our understanding of the factors affecting tree-line position, we used the spatially explicit dynamic forest model TreeMig. Although well-suited because of its landscape dynamics functions, TreeMig features a parabolic temperature growth response curve, which has recently been questioned. and the species parameters are not specifically calibrated for cold temperatures. Our main goals were to improve the theoretical basis of the temperature growth response curve in the model and develop a method for deriving that curve's parameters from tree-ring data. We replaced the parabola with an asymptotic curve, calibrated for the main species at the subalpine (Swiss Alps: Pinus cembra, Larix decidua, Picea abies) and boreal (Fennoscandia: Pinus sylvestris, Betula pubescens, P. abies) tree-lines. After fitting new parameters, the growth curve matched observed tree-ring widths better. For the subalpine species, the minimum degree-day sum allowing, growth (kDDMin) was lowered by around 100 degree-days; in the case of Larix, the maximum potential ring-width was increased to 5.19 mm. At the boreal tree-line, the kDDMin for P. sylvestris was lowered by 210 degree-days and its maximum ring-width increased to 2.943 mm; for Betula (new in the model) kDDMin was set to 325 degree-days and the maximum ring-width to 2.51 mm; the values from the only boreal sample site for Picea were similar to the subalpine ones, so the same parameters were used. However, adjusting the growth response alone did not improve the model's output concerning species' distributions and their relative importance at tree-line. Minimum winter temperature (MinWiT, mean of the coldest winter month), which controls seedling establishment in TreeMig, proved more important for determining distribution. Picea, P. sylvestris and Betula did not previously have minimum winter temperature limits, so these values were set to the 95th percentile of each species' coldest MinWiT site (respectively -7, -11, -13). In a case study for the Alps, the original and newly calibrated versions of TreeMig were compared with biomass data from the National Forest Inventor), (NFI). Both models gave similar, reasonably realistic results. In conclusion, this method of deriving temperature responses from tree-rings works well. However, regeneration and its underlying factors seem more important for controlling species' distributions than previously thought. More research on regeneration ecology, especially at the upper limit of forests. is needed to improve predictions of tree-line responses to climate change further.

Evidence of growth and sector zoning in hydrothermal quartz from Alpine veins

Several quartz crystals from three different Alpine vein localities and of known petrologic setting and evolution have been examined for possible elemental sector zoning in order to help to constrain the mechanisms of such trace element incorporation. Using different in situ techniques (EMPA, LA-ICPMS, SIMS, FTIR-spectroscopy), it was established that Al and Li concentrations can exceed several hundreds of ppma for distinct growth zones within crystals formed at temperatures of about 300 degrees C or less and that also display patterns of cyclic growth when examined with cathodoluminescence. In contrast, crystals formed at temperatures closer to 400 degrees C and without visible cyclic growth have low concentrations of Al and Li as well as other trace elements. Al and Li contents are correlated along profiles measured within the crystals and in general their proportion does not change along the profiles. No relationships were found between Al, Na, and K, and germanium has a qualitative relationship with Al. FTIR spectra also show OH(-) absorption bands within the quartz, with higher amplitudes in zones rich in Al and Li. Sector zoning is present. It is most pronounced between prismatic and rhombohedral faces of the same growth zone, but also between the rhombohedral faces of r and z, which contain different amounts of trace elements. The sector zoning is also expressed by changes in the Li/Al ratio, with higher ratios in 17 compared to r faces. It is concluded that the incorporation of trace elements into hydrothermal quartz from Alpine veins is influenced by growth mechanisms and surface-structures of the growing quartz crystals, the influence of which may change as a function of temperature, pH, as well as the chemical composition of the fluid.

Growth, selection and appropriate contracts

We study a dynamic model where growth requires both long-term investment and the selection of talented managers. When ability is not ex-ante observable and contracts are incomplete, managerial selection imposes a cost, as managers facing the risk of being replaced tend to choose a sub-optimally low level of long-term investment. This generates a trade-off between selection and investment that has implications for the choice of contractual relationships. Our analysis shows that rigid long-term contracts sacrificing managerial selection may be optimal at early stages of economic development and when access to information is limited. As the economy grows, however, knowledge accumulation increases the return to talent and makes it optimal to adopt flexible contractual relationships, where managerial selection is implemented even at the cost of lower investment. Better institutions, in the form of a richer contracting environment and less severe informational frictions, speed up the transition to short-term relationships.

Growth in a Cross-Section of Cities: Location, Increasing Returns or Random Growth?

This article analyzes empirically the main existing theories on income and population city growth: increasing returns to scale, locational fundamentals and random growth. To do this we implement a threshold nonlinearity test that extends standard linear growth regression models to a dataset on urban, climatological and macroeconomic variables on 1,175 U.S. cities. Our analysis reveals the existence of increasing returns when per-capita income levels are beyond $19; 264. Despite this, income growth is mostly explained by social and locational fundamentals. Population growth also exhibits two distinct equilibria determined by a threshold value of 116,300 inhabitants beyond which city population grows at a higher rate. Income and population growth do not go hand in hand, implying an optimal level of population beyond which income growth stagnates or deteriorates

Light receptor action is critical for maintaining plant biomass at warm ambient temperatures.

The ability to withstand environmental temperature variation is essential for plant survival. Former studies in Arabidopsis revealed that light signalling pathways had a potentially unique role in shielding plant growth and development from seasonal and daily fluctuations in temperature. In this paper we describe the molecular circuitry through which the light receptors cry1 and phyB buffer the impact of warm ambient temperatures. We show that the light signalling component HFR1 acts to minimise the potentially devastating effects of elevated temperature on plant physiology. Light is known to stabilise levels of HFR1 protein by suppressing proteasome-mediated destruction of HFR1. We demonstrate that light-dependent accumulation and activity of HFR1 are highly temperature dependent. The increased potency of HFR1 at warmer temperatures provides an important restraint on PIF4 that drives elongation growth. We show that warm ambient temperatures promote the accumulation of phosphorylated PIF4. However, repression of PIF4 activity by phyB and cry1 (via HFR1) is critical for controlling growth and maintaining physiology as temperatures rise. Loss of this light-mediated restraint has severe consequences for adult plants which have greatly reduced biomass.

Plasma membrane cyclic nucleotide gated calcium channels control land plant thermal sensing and acquired thermotolerance.

Typically at dawn on a hot summer day, land plants need precise molecular thermometers to sense harmless increments in the ambient temperature to induce a timely heat shock response (HSR) and accumulate protective heat shock proteins in anticipation of harmful temperatures at mid-day. Here, we found that the cyclic nucleotide gated calcium channel (CNGC) CNGCb gene from Physcomitrella patens and its Arabidopsis thaliana ortholog CNGC2, encode a component of cyclic nucleotide gated Ca(2+) channels that act as the primary thermosensors of land plant cells. Disruption of CNGCb or CNGC2 produced a hyper-thermosensitive phenotype, giving rise to an HSR and acquired thermotolerance at significantly milder heat-priming treatments than in wild-type plants. In an aequorin-expressing moss, CNGCb loss-of-function caused a hyper-thermoresponsive Ca(2+) influx and altered Ca(2+) signaling. Patch clamp recordings on moss protoplasts showed the presence of three distinct thermoresponsive Ca(2+) channels in wild-type cells. Deletion of CNGCb led to a total absence of one and increased the open probability of the remaining two thermoresponsive Ca(2+) channels. Thus, CNGC2 and CNGCb are expected to form heteromeric Ca(2+) channels with other related CNGCs. These channels in the plasma membrane respond to increments in the ambient temperature by triggering an optimal HSR, leading to the onset of plant acquired thermotolerance.

Garnet growth in the metasediments of the Zermatt-Saas Fee zone (western alps)

The Zermatt-Saas Fee Zone (ZSZ) in the Western Alps consists of multiple slices of ultramafic, mafic and metasedimentary rocks. They represent the remnants of the Mesozoic Piemonte-Ligurian oceanic basin which was subducted to eclogite facies conditions with peak pressures and temperatures of up to 20-28 kbar and 550-630 °C, followed by a greenschist overprint during exhumation. Previous studies, emphasizing on isotopie geochronology and modeling of REE-behavior in garnets from mafic eclogites, suggest that the ZSZ is buildup of tectonic slices which underwent a protracted diachronous subduction followed by a rapid synchronous exhumation. In this study Rb/Sr geochronology is applied to phengite included in garnets from metasediments of two different slices of the ZSZ to date garnet growth. Inclusion ages for 2 metapelitic samples from the same locality from the first slice are 44.25 ± 0.48 Ma and 43.19 ± 0.32 Ma. Those are about 4 Ma older than the corresponding matrix mica ages of respectively 40.02 ± 0.13 Ma and 39.55 ± 0.25 Ma. The inclusion age for a third calcschist sample, collected from a second slice, is 40.58 ± 0.24 Ma and the matrix age is 39.8 ± 1.5 Ma. The results show that garnet effectively functioned as a shield, preventing a reset of the Rb/Sr isotopie clock in the included phengites to temperatures well above the closure of Sr in mica. The results are consistent with the results of former studies on the ZSZ using both Lu/Hf and Sm/Nd geochronology on mafic eclogites. They confirm that at least parts of the ZSZ underwent close to peak metamorphic HP conditions younger than 43 m.y. ago before being rapidly exhumed about 40 m.y. ago. Fluid infiltration in rocks of the second slice occurred likely close to the peak metamorphic conditions, resulting in rapid growth of garnets. Similar calcschists from the same slice contain two distinct types of porphyroblast garnets with indications of multiple growth pulses and resorption indicated by truncated chemical zoning patterns. In-situ oxygen isotope Sensitive High Resolution Ion Microprobe (SHRIMP) analyses along profiles on central sections of the garnets reveal variations of up to 5 %o in individual garnets. The complex compositional zoning and graphite inclusion patterns as well as the variations in oxygen isotopes correspond to growing under changing fluid composition conditions caused by external infiltrated fluids. The ultramafic and mafic rocks, which were subducted along with the sediments and form the volumetrically most important part of the ZSZ, are the likely source of those mainly aqueous fluids. - La Zone de Zermatt-Saas Fee (ZZS) est constituée de multiples écailles de roches ultramafiques, mafiques et méta-sédimentaires. Cette zone, qui affleure dans les Alpes occidentales, représente les restes du basin océanique Piémontais-Ligurien d'âge mésozoïque. Lors de la subduction de ce basin océanique à l'Eocène, les différentes roches composant le planché océanique ont atteint les conditions du faciès éclogitique avec des pressions et des températures maximales estimées entre 20 - 28 kbar et 550 - 630 °C respectivement, avant de subir une rétrogression au faciès schiste vert pendant l'exhumation. Différentes études antérieures combinant la géochronologie isotopique et la modélisation des mécanismes gouvernant l'incorporation des terres rares dans les grenats des éclogites mafiques, suggèrent que la ZZS ne correspond pas à une seule unité, mais est constituée de différentes écailles tectoniques qui ont subi une subduction prolongée et diachrone suivie d'une exhumation rapide et synchrone. Afin de tester cette hypothèse, j'ai daté, dans cette étude, des phengites incluses dans les grenats des méta-sédiments de deux différentes écailles tectoniques de la ZZS, afin de dater la croissance relative de ces grenats. Pour cela j'ai utilisé la méthode géochronologique basée sur la décroissance du Rb87 en Sr87. J'ai daté trois échantillons de deux différentes écailles. Les premiers deux échantillons proviennent de Triftji, au nord du Breithorn, d'une première écaille dont les méta-sédiments sont caractérisés par des bandes méta-pélitiques à grenat et des calcschistes. Le troisième échantillon a été collectionné au Riffelberg, dans une écaille dont les méta-sédiments sont essentiellement des calcschistes qui sont mélangés avec des roches mafiques et des serpentinites. Ce mélange se trouve au-dessus de la grande masse de serpentinites qui forment le Riffelhorn, le Trockenersteg et le Breithorn, et qui est connu sous le nom de la Zone de mélange de Riffelberg (Bearth, 1953). Les inclusions dans les grenats de deux échantillons méta-pélitiques de la première écaille sont datées à 44.25 ± 0.48 Ma et à 43.19 ± 0.32 Ma. Ces âges sont à peu près 4 Ma plus vieux que les âges obtenus sur les phengites provenant de la matrice de ces mêmes échantillons qui donnent des âges de 40.02 ± 0.13 Ma et 39.55 ± 0.25 Ma respectivement. Les inclusions de phengite dans les grenats appartenant à un calcschiste de la deuxième écaille ont un âge de 40.58 ± 0.24 Ma alors que les phengites de la matrice ont un âge de 39.8 ± 1.5 Ma. Pour expliquer ces différences d'âge entre les phengites incluses dans le grenat et les phengites provenant de la matrice, nous suggérons que la cristallisation de grenat ait permis d'isoler ces phengites et de les préserver de tous rééquilibrage lors de la suite du chemin métamorphique prograde, puis rétrograde. Ceci est particulièrement important pour expliquer l'absence de rééquilibrage des phengites dans des conditions de températures supérieures à la température de fermeture du système Rb/Sr pour les phengites. Les phengites en inclusions n'ayant pas pu être datées individuellement, nous interprétons l'âge de 44 Ma pour les inclusions de phengite comme un âge moyen pour l'incorporation de ces phengites dans le grenat. Ces résultats sont cohérents avec les résultats des études antérieures de la ZZS utilisant les systèmes isotopiques de Sm/Nd et Lu/Hf sur des eclogites mafiques. ils confirment qu'aux moins une partie de la ZZS a subi des conditions de pression et de température maximale il y a moins de 44 à 42 Ma avant d'être rapidement exhumée à des conditions métamorphiques du faciès schiste vert supérieur autour de 40 Ma. Cette étude détaillée des grenats a permis, également, de mettre en évidence le rôle des fluides durant le métamorphisme prograde. En effet, si tous les grenats montrent des puises de croissance et de résorption, on peut distinguer, dans différents calcschists provenant de la deuxième écaille, deux types distincts de porphyroblast de grenat en fonction de la présence ou non d'inclusions de graphite. Nous lions ces puises de croissances/résorptions ainsi que la présence ou l'absence de graphite en inclusion dans les grenats à l'infiltration de fluides dans le système, et ceci durant tous le chemin prograde mais plus particulièrement proche et éventuellement peu après du pic du métamorphisme comme le suggère l'âge de 40 Ma mesuré dans les inclusions de phengites de l'échantillon du Riffelberg. Des analyses in-situ d'isotopes d'oxygène réalisé à l'aide de la SHRIMP (Sensitive High Resolution Ion Microprobe) dans des coupes centrales des grenats indiquent des variations jusqu'à 5 %o au sein même d'un grenat. Les motifs de zonations chimiques et d'inclusions de graphite complexes, ainsi que les variations du δ180 correspondent à une croissance de grenat sous des conditions de fluides changeantes dues aux infiltrations de fluides externes. Nous lions l'origine de ces fluides aqueux aux unités ultramafiques et mafiques qui ont été subductés avec les méta-sédiments ; unités ultramafiques et mafiques qui forment la partie volumétrique la plus importante de la ZZS.

Intrauterine growth restriction and absent or reverse end-diastolic blood flow in umbilical artery (Doppler class II or III): A retrospective study of short- and long-term fetal morbidity and mortality.

OBJECTIVE: Absent or reverse end-diastolic flow (Doppler II/III) in umbilical artery is correlated with poor perinatal outcome, particularly in intrauterine growth restricted (IUGR) fetuses. The optimal timing of delivery is still controversial. We studied the short- and long-term morbidity and mortality among these children associated with our defined management. STUDY DESIGN: Sixty-nine IUGR fetuses with umbilical Doppler II/III were divided into three groups; Group 1, severe early IUGR, no therapeutic intervention (n = 7); Group 2, fetuses with pathological biophysical profile, immediate delivery (n = 35); Group 3, fetuses for which expectant management had been decided (n = 27). RESULTS: In Group 1, stillbirth was observed after a mean delay of 6.3 days. Group 2 delivered at an average of 31.6 weeks and two died in the neonatal period (6%). In Group 3 after a mean delay of 8 days, average gestational age at delivery was 31.7 weeks; two intra uterine and four perinatal deaths were observed (22%). Long-term follow-up revealed no sequelae in 25/31 (81%) and 15/18 (83%), and major handicap occurred in 1 (3%) and 2 patients (11%), respectively, for Groups 2 and 3. CONCLUSION: Fetal mortality was observed in 22% of this high risk group. After a mean period of follow-up of 5 years, 82% of infants showed no sequelae. According to our management, IUGR associated with umbilical Doppler II or III does not show any benefit from an expectant management in term of long-term morbidity.

On Globalization and the Growth of Governments

This paper investigates the relationship between trade openness and the size of government, both theoretically and empirically. We show that openness can increase the size of governments through two channels: (1) a terms of trade externality, whereby trade lowers the domestic cost of taxation and (2) the demand for insurance, whereby trade raises risk and public transfers. We provide a unified framework for studying and testing these two mechanisms. First, we show how their relative strength depends on a key parameter, the elasticity of substitution between domestic and foreign goods. Second, while the terms of trade externality leads to inefficiently large governments, the increase in public spending due to the demand for insurance is optimal. We show that large volumes of trade may result in welfare losses if the terms of trade externality is strong enough while small volumes of trade are always beneficial. Third, we provide new evidence on the positive association between openness and the size of government and test whether it is consistent with the terms of trade externality or the demand for insurance. Our findings suggest that the positive relationship is remarkably robust and that the terms of trade externality may be the driving force behind it, thus raising warnings that globalization may have led to inefficiently large governments.

Competing engines of growth: Innovation and standardization

We study a dynamic general equilibrium model where innovation takes theform of the introduction of new goods whose production requires skilled workers.Innovation is followed by a costly process of standardization, whereby these newgoods are adapted to be produced using unskilled labor. Our framework highlightsa number of novel results. First, standardization is both an engine of growth anda potential barrier to it. As a result, growth is an inverse U-shaped function ofthe standardization rate (and of competition). Second, we characterize the growthand welfare maximizing speed of standardization. We show how optimal protection of intellectual property rights affecting the cost of standardization vary withthe skill-endowment, the elasticity of substitution between goods and other parameters. Third, we show that, depending on how competition between innovatingand standardizing firms is modelled and on parameter values, a new type of multiplicity of equilibria may arise. Finally, we study the implications of our model forthe skill-premium and we illustrate novel reasons for linking North-South trade tointellectual property rights protection.

Transfers, social safety nets and economic growth

The role of social safety nets in the form of redistributional transfersand wage subsidies is analyzed using a simple model of criminal behavior. Itis argued that public welfare programs act as a crime--preventing ordisruption--preventing devices because they tend to increase the opportunitycost of engaging in crime or disruptive activities. It is shown that, in thepresence of a leisure choice, wage subsidies may be better than pure transfers. Using a simple growth model, it is shown that it is not optimal for the governmentto try to fully eliminate crime. The optimal size of the public welfare programis found and it is argued that public welfare should be financed with income(not lump--sum) taxes, despite the fact that income taxes are distortionary.The intuition for this result is that income taxes act as a user fee oncongested public goods and transfers can be thought of as {\it productive}public goods {\it subject to congestion}. Finally, using a cross-section of 75 countries, the partial correlation betweentransfers and growth is shown to be significantly positive.

Nucleation and growth of metamorphic minerals in contact aureoles

THESIS ABSTRACT Nucleation and growth of metamorphic minerals are the consequence of changing P-T-X-conditions. The thesis presented here focuses on processes governing nucleation and growth of minerals in contact metamorphic environments using a combination of geochemical analytics (chemical-, isotope-, and trace element composition), statistical treatments of spatial data, and numerical models. It is shown, that a combination of textural modeling and stable isotope analysis allows a distinction between several possible reaction paths for olivine growth in a siliceous dolomite contact aureole. It is suggested that olivine forms directly from dolomite and quartz. The formation of olivine from this metastable reaction implies metamorphic crystallization far from equilibrium. As a major consequence, the spatial distribution of metamorphic mineral assemblages in a contact aureole cannot be interpreted as a proxy for the temporal evolution of a single rock specimen, because each rock undergoes a different reaction path, depending on temperature, heating rate, and fluid-infiltration rate. A detailed calcite-dolomite thermometry study was initiated on multiple scales ranging from aureole scale to the size of individual crystals. Quantitative forward models were developed to evaluate the effect of growth zoning, volume diffusion and the formation of submicroscopic exsolution lamellae (<1 µm) on the measured Mg-distribution in individual calcite crystals and compare the modeling results to field data. This study concludes that Mg-distributions in calcite grains of the Ubehebe Peak contact aureole are the consequence of rapid crystal growth in combination with diffusion and exsolution. The crystallization history of a rock is recorded in the chemical composition, the size and the distribution of its minerals. Near the Cima Uzza summit, located in the southern Adamello massif (Italy), contact metamorphic brucite bearing dolomite marbles are exposed as xenoliths surrounded by mafic intrusive rocks. Brucite is formed retrograde pseudomorphing spherical periclase crystals. Crystal size distributions (CSD's) of brucite pseudomorphs are presented for two profiles and combined with geochemistry data and petrological information. Textural analyses are combined with geochemistry data in a qualitative model that describes the formation periclase. As a major outcome, this expands the potential use of CSD's to systems of mineral formation driven by fluid-infiltration. RESUME DE LA THESE La nucléation et la croissance des minéraux métamorphiques sont la conséquence de changements des conditions de pression, température et composition chimique du système (PT-X). Cette thèse s'intéresse aux processus gouvernant la nucléation et la croissance des minéraux au cours d'un épisode de métamorphisme de contact, en utilisant la géochimie analytique (composition chimique, isotopique et en éléments traces), le traitement statistique des données spatiales et la modélisation numérique. Il est montré que la combinaison d'un modèle textural avec des analyses en isotopes stables permet de distinguer plusieurs chemins de réactions possibles conduisant à la croissance de l'olivine dans une auréole de contact riche en Silice et dolomite. Il est suggéré que l'olivine se forme directement à partir de la dolomie et du quartz. Cette réaction métastable de formation de l'olivine implique une cristallisation métamorphique loin de l'équilibre. La principale conséquence est que la distribution spatiale des assemblages de minéraux métamorphiques dans une auréole de contact ne peut pas être considérée comme un témoin de l'évolution temporelle d'un type de roche donné, puisque chaque type de roche suit différents chemins de réactions, en fonction de la température, la vitesse de réchauffement et le taux d'infiltration du fluide. Une étude thermométrique calcite-dolomite détaillée a été réalisée à diverses échelles, depuis l'échelle de l'auréole de contact jusqu'à l'échelle du cristal. Des modèles numériques quantitatifs ont été développés pour évaluer l'effet des zonations de croissance, de la diffusion volumique et de la formation de lamelles d'exsolution submicroscopiques (<1µm) sur la distribution du magnésium mesuré dans des cristaux de calcite individuels. Les résultats de ce modèle ont été comparés ä des échantillons naturels. Cette étude montre que la distribution du Mg dans les grains de calcite de l'auréole de contact de l'Ubehebe Peak (USA) résulte d'une croissance cristalline rapide, associée aux processus de diffusion et d'exsolution. L'histoire de cristallisation d'une roche est enregistrée dans la composition chimique, la taille et la distribution de ses minéraux. Près du sommet Cima Uzza situé au sud du massif d'Adamello (Italie), des marbres dolomitiques à brucite du métamorphisme de contact forment des xénolithes dans une intrusion mafique. La brucite constitue des pseudomorphes rétrogrades du périclase. Les distributions de taille des cristaux (CSD) des pseudomorphes de brucite sont présentées pour deux profiles et sont combinées aux données géochimiques et pétrologiques. Les analyses textorales sont combinées aux données géochimiques dans un modèle qualitatif qui décrit la formation du périclase. Ceci élargit l'utilisation potentielle de la C5D aux systèmes de formation de minéraux controlés par les infiltrations fluides. THESIS ABSTRACT (GENERAL PUBLIC) Rock textures are essentially the result of a complex interaction of nucleation, growth and deformation as a function of changing physical conditions such as pressure and temperature. Igneous and metamorphic textures are especially attractive to study the different mechanisms of texture formation since most of the parameters like pressure-temperature-paths are quite well known for a variety of geological settings. The fact that textures are supposed to record the crystallization history of a rock traditionally allowed them to be used for geothermobarometry or dating. During the last decades the focus of metamorphic petrology changed from a static point of view, i.e. the representation of a texture as one single point in the petrogenetic grid towards a more dynamic view, where multiple metamorphic processes govern the texture formation, including non-equilibrium processes. This thesis tries to advance our understanding on the processes governing nucleation and growth of minerals in contact metamorphic environments and their dynamic interplay by using a combination of geochemical analyses (chemical-, isotope-, and trace element composition), statistical treatments of spatial data and numerical models. In a first part the thesis describes the formation of metamorphic olivine porphyroblast in the Ubehebe Peak contact aureole (USA). It is shown that not the commonly assumed succession of equilibrium reactions along a T-t-path formed the textures present in the rocks today, but rather the presence of a meta-stable reaction is responsible for forming the olivine porphyroblast. Consequently, the spatial distribution of metamorphic minerals within a contact aureole can no longer be regarded as a proxy for the temporal evolution of a single rock sample. Metamorphic peak temperatures for samples of the Ubehebe Peak contact aureole were determined using calcite-dolomite. This geothermometer is based on the temperature-dependent exchange of Mg between calcite and dolomite. The purpose of the second part of this thesis was to explain the interfering systematic scatter of measured Mg-content on different scales and thus to clarify the interpretation of metamorphic temperatures recorded in carbonates. Numerical quantitative forward models are used to evaluate the effect of several processes on the distribution of magnesium in individual calcite crystals and the modeling results were then compared to measured field. Information about the crystallization history is not only recorded in the chemical composition of grains, like isotope composition or mineral zoning. Crystal size distributions (CSD's) provide essential information about the complex interaction of nucleation and growth of minerals. CSD's of brucite pseudomorphs formed retrograde after periclase of the southern Adamello massif (Italy) are presented. A combination of the textural 3D-information with geochemistry data is then used to evaluate reaction kinetics and to constrain the actual reaction mechanism for the formation of periclase. The reaction is shown to be the consequence of the infiltration of a limited amount of a fluid phase at high temperatures. The composition of this fluid phase is in large disequilibrium with the rest of the rock resulting in very fast reaction rates. RESUME DE LA THESE POUR LE GRAND PUBLIC: La texture d'une roche résulte de l'interaction complexe entre les processus de nucléation, croissance et déformation, en fonction des variations de conditions physiques telles que la pression et la température. Les textures ignées et métamorphiques présentent un intérêt particulier pour l'étude des différents mécanismes à l'origine de ces textures, puisque la plupart des paramètres comme les chemin pression-température sont relativement bien contraints dans la plupart des environnements géologiques. Le fait que les textures soient supposées enregistrer l'histoire de cristallisation des roches permet leur utilisation pour la datation et la géothermobarométrie. Durant les dernières décennies, la recherche en pétrologie métamorphique a évolué depuis une visualisation statique, c'est-à-dire qu'une texture donnée correspondait à un point unique de la grille pétrogénétique, jusqu'à une visualisation plus dynamique, où les multiples processus métamorphiques qui gouvernent 1a formation d'une texture incluent des processus hors équilibre. Cette thèse a pour but d'améliorer les connaissances actuelles sur les processus gouvernant la nucléation et la croissance des minéraux lors d'épisodes de métamorphisme de contact et l'interaction dynamique existant entre nucléation et croissance. Pour cela, les analyses géochimiques (compositions chimiques en éléments majeurs et traces et composition isotopique), le traitement statistique des données spatiales et la modélisation numérique ont été combinés. Dans la première partie, cette thèse décrit la formation de porphyroblastes d'olivine métamorphique dans l'auréole de contact de l'Ubehebe Peak (USA). Il est montré que la succession généralement admise des réactions d'équilibre le long d'un chemin T-t ne peut pas expliquer les textures présentes dans les roches aujourd'hui. Cette thèse montre qu'il s'agirait plutôt d'une réaction métastable qui soit responsable de la formation des porphyroblastes d'olivine. En conséquence, la distribution spatiale des minéraux métamorphiques dans l'auréole de contact ne peut plus être interprétée comme le témoin de l'évolution temporelle d'un échantillon unique de roche. Les pics de température des échantillons de l'auréole de contact de l'Ubehebe Peak ont été déterminés grâce au géothermomètre calcite-dolomite. Celui-ci est basé sur l'échange du magnésium entre la calcite et la dolomite, qui est fonction de la température. Le but de la deuxième partie de cette thèse est d'expliquer la dispersion systématique de la composition en magnésium à différentes échelles, et ainsi d'améliorer l'interprétation des températures du métamorphisme enregistrées dans les carbonates. Des modèles numériques quantitatifs ont permis d'évaluer le rôle de différents processus sur la distribution du magnésium dans des cristaux de calcite individuels. Les résultats des modèles ont été comparés aux échantillons naturels. La composition chimique des grains, comme la composition isotopique ou la zonation minérale, n'est pas le seul témoin de l'histoire de la cristallisation. La distribution de la taille des cristaux (CSD) fournit des informations essentielles sur les interactions entre nucléation et croissance des minéraux. La CSD des pseudomorphes de brucite retrograde formés après le périclase dans le sud du massif Adamello (Italie) est présentée dans la troisième partie. La combinaison entre les données textorales en trois dimensions et les données géochimiques a permis d'évaluer les cinétiques de réaction et de contraindre les mécanismes conduisant à la formation du périclase. Cette réaction est présentée comme étant la conséquence de l'infiltration d'une quantité limitée d'une phase fluide à haute température. La composition de cette phase fluide est en grand déséquilibre avec le reste de la roche, ce qui permet des cinétiques de réactions très rapides.

Crises and growth: A re-evaluation

We address the question of whether growth and welfare can be higher in crisis prone economies. First, we show that there is a robust empirical link between per-capita GDP growth and negative skewness of credit growth across countries with active financial markets. That is, countries that have experienced occasional crises have grown on average faster than countries with smooth credit conditions. We then present a two-sector endogenous growth model in which financial crises can occur, and analyze the relationship between financial fragility and growth. The underlying credit market imperfections generateborrowing constraints, bottlenecks and low growth. We show that under certain conditions endogenous real exchange rate risk arises and firms find it optimal to take on credit risk in the form of currency mismatch. Along such a risky path average growth is higher, but self-fulfilling crises occur occasionally. Furthermore, we establish conditions under which the adoption of credit risk is welfare improving and brings the allocation nearer to the Pareto optimal level. The design of the model is motivated by several features of recent crises: credit risk in the form of foreign currency denominated debt; costly crises that generate firesales and widespread bankruptcies; and asymmetric sectorial responses, wherethe nontradables sector falls more than the tradables sector in the wake of crises.

Banks, liquidity crises and economic growth

How do the liquidity functions of banks affect investment and growth at different stages ofeconomic development? How do financial fragility and the costs of banking crises evolve with the level of wealth of countries? We analyze these issues using an overlapping generations growth model where agents, who experience idiosyncratic liquidity shocks, can invest in a liquid storage technology or in a partially illiquid Cobb Douglas technology. By pooling liquidity risk, banks play a growth enhancing role in reducing inefficient liquidation of long term projects, but they may face liquidity crises associated with severe output losses. We show that middle income economies may find optimal to be exposed to liquidity crises, while poor and rich economies have more incentives to develop a fully covered banking system. Therefore, middle income economies could experience banking crises in the process of their development and, as they get richer, they eventually converge to a financially safe long run steady state. Finally, the model replicates the empirical fact of higher costs of banking crises for middle income economies.

Wealth, financial intermediation and growth

This paper presents empirical support for the existence of wealth effects in the contribution of financial intermediation to economic growth, and offers a theoretical explanation for these effects. Using GMM dynamic panel data techniques applied to study the growth-promoting effects of financial intermediation, we show that the exogenous contribution of financial development on economic growth has different effects for different levels of income per capita. We find that this contribution is generally increasing with thelevel of income per capita of the economy, up to a relatively high level of income. This contribution is consistently lower for poor countries; and for some low levels of income per capita it can be negative. We provide a model to account for these wealth effects. The model is a overlapping generations growth model where financial intermediaries implement liquidity risk sharing among depositors. We show that at early stages of economic development, a bank can increase welfare of its depositors only at the cost of lowering investment and growth. However, once the economy has crossed certain wealth threshold, the liquidity role of banks becomes unambiguously growth enhancing. As wealth increases, banks offer improving liquidity insurance, and higher growth; however, for high levels of wealth, growth generated byfinancial intermediation declines as the economy attains the optimal level of consumption risk sharing.