Semiparametric Estimation in General Repeated Measures Problems

This paper considers a wide class of semiparametric problems with a parametric part for some covariate effects and repeated evaluations of a nonparametric function. Special cases in our approach include marginal models for longitudinal/clustered data, conditional logistic regression for matched case-control studies, multivariate measurement error models, generalized linear mixed models with a semiparametric component, and many others. We propose profile-kernel and backfitting estimation methods for these problems, derive their asymptotic distributions, and show that in likelihood problems the methods are semiparametric efficient. While generally not true, with our methods profiling and backfitting are asymptotically equivalent. We also consider pseudolikelihood methods where some nuisance parameters are estimated from a different algorithm. The proposed methods are evaluated using simulation studies and applied to the Kenya hemoglobin data.

Semiparametric Normal Transformation Models for Spatially Correlated Survival Data

There is an emerging interest in modeling spatially correlated survival data in biomedical and epidemiological studies. In this paper, we propose a new class of semiparametric normal transformation models for right censored spatially correlated survival data. This class of models assumes that survival outcomes marginally follow a Cox proportional hazard model with unspecified baseline hazard, and their joint distribution is obtained by transforming survival outcomes to normal random variables, whose joint distribution is assumed to be multivariate normal with a spatial correlation structure. A key feature of the class of semiparametric normal transformation models is that it provides a rich class of spatial survival models where regression coefficients have population average interpretation and the spatial dependence of survival times is conveniently modeled using the transformed variables by flexible normal random fields. We study the relationship of the spatial correlation structure of the transformed normal variables and the dependence measures of the original survival times. Direct nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation in such models is practically prohibited due to the high dimensional intractable integration of the likelihood function and the infinite dimensional nuisance baseline hazard parameter. We hence develop a class of spatial semiparametric estimating equations, which conveniently estimate the population-level regression coefficients and the dependence parameters simultaneously. We study the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators, and show that they are consistent and asymptotically normal. The proposed method is illustrated with an analysis of data from the East Boston Ashma Study and its performance is evaluated using simulations.

Analyzing Panel Count Data with Informative Observation Times

In this paper, we study panel count data with informative observation times. We assume nonparametric and semiparametric proportional rate models for the underlying recurrent event process, where the form of the baseline rate function is left unspecified and a subject-specific frailty variable inflates or deflates the rate function multiplicatively. The proposed models allow the recurrent event processes and observation times to be correlated through their connections with the unobserved frailty; moreover, the distributions of both the frailty variable and observation times are considered as nuisance parameters. The baseline rate function and the regression parameters are estimated by maximizing a conditional likelihood function of observed event counts and solving estimation equations. Large sample properties of the proposed estimators are studied. Numerical studies demonstrate that the proposed estimation procedures perform well for moderate sample sizes. An application to a bladder tumor study is presented to illustrate the use of the proposed methods.

Reduced Bayesian Hierarchical Models: Estimating Health Effects of Simultaneous Exposure to Multiple Pollutants

Quantifying the health effects associated with simultaneous exposure to many air pollutants is now a research priority of the US EPA. Bayesian hierarchical models (BHM) have been extensively used in multisite time series studies of air pollution and health to estimate health effects of a single pollutant adjusted for potential confounding of other pollutants and other time-varying factors. However, when the scientific goal is to estimate the impacts of many pollutants jointly, a straightforward application of BHM is challenged by the need to specify a random-effect distribution on a high-dimensional vector of nuisance parameters, which often do not have an easy interpretation. In this paper we introduce a new BHM formulation, which we call "reduced BHM", aimed at analyzing clustered data sets in the presence of a large number of random effects that are not of primary scientific interest. At the first stage of the reduced BHM, we calculate the integrated likelihood of the parameter of interest (e.g. excess number of deaths attributed to simultaneous exposure to high levels of many pollutants). At the second stage, we specify a flexible random-effect distribution directly on the parameter of interest. The reduced BHM overcomes many of the challenges in the specification and implementation of full BHM in the context of a large number of nuisance parameters. In simulation studies we show that the reduced BHM performs comparably to the full BHM in many scenarios, and even performs better in some cases. Methods are applied to estimate location-specific and overall relative risks of cardiovascular hospital admissions associated with simultaneous exposure to elevated levels of particulate matter and ozone in 51 US counties during the period 1999-2005.

Thermal neutron capture effects in radioactive and stable nuclide systems

Neutron capture effects in meteorites and lunar surface samples have been successfully used in the past to study exposure histories and shielding conditions. In recent years, however, it turned out that neutron capture effects produce a nuisance for some of the short-lived radionuclide systems. The most prominent example is the 182Hf-182W system in iron meteorites, for which neutron capture effects lower the 182W/184W ratio, thereby producing too old apparent ages. Here, we present a thorough study of neutron capture effects in iron meteorites, ordinary chondrites, and carbonaceous chondrites, whereas the focus is on iron meteorites. We study in detail the effects responsible for neutron production, neutron transport, and neutron slowing down and find that neutron capture in all studied meteorite types is not, as usually expected, exclusively via thermal neutrons. In contrast, most of the neutron capture in iron meteorites is in the epithermal energy range and there is a significant contribution from epithermal neutron capture even in stony meteorites. Using sophisticated particle spectra and evaluated cross section data files for neutron capture reactions we calculate the neutron capture effects for Sm, Gd, Cd, Pd, Pt, and Os isotopes, which all can serve as neutron-dose proxies, either in stony or in iron meteorites. In addition, we model neutron capture effects in W and Ag isotopes. For W isotopes, the GCR-induced shifts perfectly correlate with Os and Pt isotope shifts, which therefore can be used as neutron-dose proxies and permit a reliable correction. We also found that GCR-induced effects for the 107Pd-107Ag system can be significant and need to be corrected, a result that is in contrast to earlier studies.

A Word. Palaver and Its Transferal Residues

The word 'palaver' is colloquially associated with useless verbiage and the nuisance of a tediously long, aimless and superfluous debate. At the same time, it insinuates an uncivilized culture of discourse beyond reason. Thus it appears to be of vaguely exotic origin but still firmly set in the European lexicon. Yet behind this contemporary meaning there lies a long history of linguistic and cultural transfers which is encased in a context of different usages of language and their intersections. By tracing the usage and semantics of 'palaver' in various encyclopaedias, glossaries and dictionaries of English, French, German, Portuguese and Spanish, the following article explores the rich history of this word. Moreover, it also regards the travelling semantics of the term 'palaver' as a process of cultural transfer that can be likened to the microcellular workings of a (retro)virus. Viral reproduction and evolution work through processes of transfer that enable the alteration of the host to adjust it to the replication and reproduction of the virus. In some cases, these processes also allow for the mutation or modification of the virus, making it suitable for transfer from one host to another. The virus is thus offered here as a vital model for cultural transfer: It not only encompasses the necessary adoption and adaption of contents or objects of cultural transfer in different contexts. It contributes to a conceptual understanding of the transferal residue that the transferred content is endowed with by its diversifying contexts. This model thereby surpasses an understanding of cultural transfer as literal translation or transmission: it conceptualizes cultural transfer as an agent of evolutionary processes, allowing for mutational effects of transfer as endowment.

Optimal Test for Parameter Instability When the Unstable Process and the Error Distribution are Unknown

This paper proposes asymptotically optimal tests for unstable parameter process under the feasible circumstance that the researcher has little information about the unstable parameter process and the error distribution, and suggests conditions under which the knowledge of those processes does not provide asymptotic power gains. I first derive a test under known error distribution, which is asymptotically equivalent to LR tests for correctly identified unstable parameter processes under suitable conditions. The conditions are weak enough to cover a wide range of unstable processes such as various types of structural breaks and time varying parameter processes. The test is then extended to semiparametric models in which the underlying distribution in unknown but treated as unknown infinite dimensional nuisance parameter. The semiparametric test is adaptive in the sense that its asymptotic power function is equivalent to the power envelope under known error distribution.

Notas sobre la experiencia

Muchas lecturas, textos, debates, programas de investigación en teoría de la comunicación, cultura y arte incluyen un tópico recurrente que pasa desapercibido ante las distintas interpretaciones. Éste comenzó a inquietarnos lo suficiente como para prestar mayor atención a los planteos que de él teníamos. Por esta razón decidimos ensayar en estas líneas algunas ideas recuperadas en ciertas lecturas sobre la experiencia. ¿Por qué ocuparnos de la experiencia? Desde hace un tiempo cierto discurso contemporáneo (a veces caracterizado como posmoderno) repite/repetimos que la experiencia, el sentir en el presente, cambió en una dirección totalmente nueva. No pocos debates se concentran en describir este nuevo escenario, intentando responder la pregunta disparada por la línea anterior: ¿qué direcciones tomó la experiencia contemporánea? Y por supuesto el interrogante es acompañado por otra duda con una mirada más escéptica: la experiencia contemporánea ¿es más rica o profunda que en el pasado?

AFLP data based on presence (1) and absence (0) of AFLP loci (A4-F171) in Gonyostomum semen

Many recent studies have found genetically differentiated populations in microorganisms despite potentially high dispersal. We designed a study to specifically examine the importance of physical dispersal barriers, i.e. geographic distance and lack of hydrological connectivity, in restricting gene flow and enhancing divergence in limnic microorganisms. We focused on the nuisance microalga Gonyostomum semen, which has recently expanded in northern Europe and differentiated into genetically distinct populations. Gonyostomum semen was sampled from six lakes distributed in two adjacent watersheds, which thereby comprised, both connected and non-connected lakes. The individual isolates were genotyped by Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphism. Several lake populations were differentiated from each other, but connectivity within watersheds could not explain the observed population genetic pattern. However, isolation by distance was moderate and might limit the gene flow among distant populations. In addition, we found low, but significant linkage disequilibrium, which indicates regular sexual recombination in this species, despite its high degree of asexual reproduction. Therefore, we conclude that the genetic properties of microalgae with occasional sexual reproduction essentially mirror regularly recombining species. Furthermore, the data indicated bottlenecks supporting the hypothesized recent range expansion of this species.

GMM-based classifiers for the automatic detection of obstructive sleep apnea

The aim of automatic pathological voice detection systems is to serve as tools, to medical specialists, for a more objective, less invasive and improved diagnosis of diseases. In this respect, the gold standard for those system include the usage of a optimized representation of the spectral envelope, either based on cepstral coefficients from the mel-scaled Fourier spectral envelope (Mel-Frequency Cepstral Coefficients) or from an all-pole estimation (Linear Prediction Coding Cepstral Coefficients) forcharacterization, and Gaussian Mixture Models for posterior classification. However, the study of recently proposed GMM-based classifiers as well as Nuisance mitigation techniques, such as those employed in speaker recognition, has not been widely considered inpathology detection labours. The present work aims at testing whether or not the employment of such speaker recognition tools might contribute to improve system performance in pathology detection systems, specifically in the automatic detection of Obstructive Sleep Apnea. The testing procedure employs an Obstructive Sleep Apnea database, in conjunction with GMM-based classifiers looking for a better performance. The results show that an improved performance might be obtained by using such approach.

Global environmental impacts of agricultural expansion: The need for sustainable and efficient practices

The recent intensification of agriculture, and the prospects of future intensification, will have major detrimental impacts on the nonagricultural terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems of the world. The doubling of agricultural food production during the past 35 years was associated with a 6.87-fold increase in nitrogen fertilization, a 3.48-fold increase in phosphorus fertilization, a 1.68-fold increase in the amount of irrigated cropland, and a 1.1-fold increase in land in cultivation. Based on a simple linear extension of past trends, the anticipated next doubling of global food production would be associated with approximately 3-fold increases in nitrogen and phosphorus fertilization rates, a doubling of the irrigated land area, and an 18% increase in cropland. These projected changes would have dramatic impacts on the diversity, composition, and functioning of the remaining natural ecosystems of the world, and on their ability to provide society with a variety of essential ecosystem services. The largest impacts would be on freshwater and marine ecosystems, which would be greatly eutrophied by high rates of nitrogen and phosphorus release from agricultural fields. Aquatic nutrient eutrophication can lead to loss of biodiversity, outbreaks of nuisance species, shifts in the structure of food chains, and impairment of fisheries. Because of aerial redistribution of various forms of nitrogen, agricultural intensification also would eutrophy many natural terrestrial ecosystems and contribute to atmospheric accumulation of greenhouse gases. These detrimental environmental impacts of agriculture can be minimized only if there is much more efficient use and recycling of nitrogen and phosphorus in agroecosystems.

Estudo de alterações estruturais cerebrais em pacientes com esquizofrenia crônica e de primeiro episódio através de imagens por ressonância magnética com morfometria baseada no voxel

Introdução: Embora alterações estruturais cerebrais na esquizofrenia venham sendo repetidamente demonstradas em estudos de ressonância magnética (RM), ainda permanece incerto se tais alterações são estáticas ou progressivas. Enquanto estudos longitudinais são tradicionalmente utilizados na avaliação da questão da progressão, estudos transversais de neuroimagem comparando diretamente pacientes com esquizofrenia crônica e de primeiro episódio a controles saudáveis têm sido bastante raros até o presente. Com o recente interesse em meganálises combinando dados multicêntricos de RM visando-se a maior poder estatístico, o presente estudo multicêntrico de morfometria baseada no voxel (VBM) foi realizado para avaliar os padrões de alterações estruturais cerebrais segundo os diferentes estágios da doença, bem como para avaliar quais (se alguma) dessas alterações se correlacionariam especificamente a moderadores clínicos potenciais, tais como exposição cumulativa a antipsicóticos, tempo de doença e gravidade da doença. Métodos: Selecionou-se uma ampla amostra de pacientes com esquizofrenia (161, sendo 99 crônicos e 62 de primeiro episódio) e controles (151) a partir de quatro estudos prévios de RM (1,5T) realizados na mesma região do Brasil. O processamento e análise das imagens foi realizado usando-se o software Statistical Parametric Mapping (SPM8) com emprego do algoritmo DARTEL (diffeomorphic anatomical registration through exponentiated Lie algebra). Os efeitos de grupo sobre os volumes regionais de substância cinzenta (SC) foram analisados através de comparações voxel-a-voxel por análises de covariância em modelos lineares gerais, inserindo-se, em todas as análises, o volume total de SC, protocolo do scanner, idade e sexo como variáveis de confusão. Por fim, foram realizadas análises de correlação entre os aludidos moderadores clínicos potenciais e os volumes cerebrais globais e regionais. Resultados: Os pacientes com esquizofrenia de primeiro episódio apresentaram reduções volumétricas sutis em comparação aos controles, em um circuito neural circunscrito e identificável apenas em análises SVC (small volume correction) [p < 0.05, com correção family-wise error (FWE)], incluindo a ínsula, estruturas têmporo-límbicas e corpo estriado. Os pacientes crônicos, por outro lado, apresentaram um padrão de alterações extensas comparativamente aos controles, envolvendo os córtices frontais orbitais, superiores e inferiores bilateralmente, córtex frontal médio direito, ambos os córtices cingulados anteriores, ambas as ínsulas, e os córtices temporais superior e médio direitos (p < 0.05, análises whole-brain com correção FWE). Foram encontradas correlações negativas significantes entre exposição cumulativa a antipsicóticos e volumes globais de SC e substância branca nos pacientes com esquizofrenia, embora as correlações com reduções regionais não tenham sido significantes. Detectaram-se, ainda, correlações negativas significantes entre tempo de doença e volumes regionais relativos da ínsula esquerda, córtex cingulado anterior direito e córtices pré-frontais dorsolaterais nas análises SVC para os grupos conjuntos (esquizofrenia crônica e de primeiro episódio). Conclusão: Os achados supracitados indicam que: a) as alterações estruturais associadas com o diagnóstico de esquizofrenia são mais disseminadas na forma crônica em comparação à de primeiro episódio; b) reduções volumétricas regionais em áreas específicas do cérebro podem variar em função do tempo de doença; c) a exposição cumulativa a antipsicóticos associou-se a alterações volumétricas globais, e não regionais

Fracking/Takings

As the use of fracking has spread during the recent oil and gas boom, inevitable conflicts have arisen between industry and its neighbors, particularly as fracking has moved into densely populated urban and suburban areas. Concerned over the impacts of fracking – such as risks to health and safely, diminished property values, air and water pollution, as well as noise, traffic, and other annoyances – many people have demanded a government response. Government regulation of fracking has struggled to catch up, although in recent years many state and local governments have taken steps to reduce the impacts of fracking in their communities. This article focuses on government restrictions in New York and Colorado, two of the key battlegrounds in the fight over fracking. New York recently prohibited fracking across the entire state, after several towns had enacted their own bans. In Colorado, the people have used the ballot initiative process to enact restrictions on fracking directly. The industry has responded not only with public relations spending to improve the fracking’s damaged reputation, but also legal challenges to these efforts to rein in oil and gas development. In addition to suing local governments, often arguing they do not have authority to regulate fracking, industry threatens to bring costly takings claims for compensation due to alleged economic harms. This Article examines the numerous legal and factual issues that should make it difficult for industry to succeed on fracking/takings claims. First, regulation of fracking, even including outright bans, can almost always be defended as necessary to prevent a nuisance or other background principle of law that justifies government regulation. Even if a nuisance defense could be overcome, industry would have difficulty proving that regulation has destroyed all economic value in their property, unless courts take a narrow view of property that would highlight the arbitrary nature of the “denominator problem.” When fracking/takings claims are considered under the default balancing of the Penn Central case, takings are unlikely to be found except in rare outlier cases. Finally, because requiring governments to pay compensation in fracking/takings cases would likely create a windfall for industry, particularly if the oil and gas eventually is extracted in the future, courts should resist the temptation to rule against government restrictions to protect public health, safety, and the environment.