Continental and global scale flood forecasting systems

Floods are the most frequent of natural disasters, affecting millions of people across the globe every year. The anticipation and forecasting of floods at the global scale is crucial to preparing for severe events and providing early awareness where local flood models and warning services may not exist. As numerical weather prediction models continue to improve, operational centres are increasingly using the meteorological output from these to drive hydrological models, creating hydrometeorological systems capable of forecasting river flow and flood events at much longer lead times than has previously been possible. Furthermore, developments in, for example, modelling capabilities, data and resources in recent years have made it possible to produce global scale flood forecasting systems. In this paper, the current state of operational large scale flood forecasting is discussed, including probabilistic forecasting of floods using ensemble prediction systems. Six state-of-the-art operational large scale flood forecasting systems are reviewed, describing similarities and differences in their approaches to forecasting floods at the global and continental scale. Currently, operational systems have the capability to produce coarse-scale discharge forecasts in the medium-range and disseminate forecasts and, in some cases, early warning products, in real time across the globe, in support of national forecasting capabilities. With improvements in seasonal weather forecasting, future advances may include more seamless hydrological forecasting at the global scale, alongside a move towards multi-model forecasts and grand ensemble techniques, responding to the requirement of developing multi-hazard early warning systems for disaster risk reduction.

Spatial patterns and environmental constraints on ecosystem services at a catchment scale

Improved understanding and prediction of the fundamental environmental controls on ecosystem service supply across the landscape will help to inform decisions made by policy makers and land-water managers. To evaluate this issue for a local catchment case study, we explored metrics and spatial patterns of service supply for water quality regulation, agriculture production, carbon storage, and biodiversity for the Macronutrient Conwy catchment. Methods included using ecosystem models such as LUCI and JULES, integration of national scale field survey datasets, earth observation products and plant trait databases, to produce finely resolved maps of species richness and primary production. Analyses were done with both 1x1 km gridded and subcatchment data. A common single gradient characterised catchment scale ecosystem services supply with agricultural production and carbon storage at opposing ends of the gradient as reported for a national-scale assessment. Species diversity was positively related to production due to the below national average productivity levels in the Conwy combined with the unimodal relationship between biodiversity and productivity at the national scale. In contrast to the national scale assessment, a strong reduction in water quality as production increased was observed in these low productive systems. Various soil variables were tested for their predictive power of ecosystem service supply. Soil carbon, nitrogen, their ratio and soil pH all had double the power of rainfall and altitude, each explaining around 45% of variation but soil pH is proposed as a potential metric for ecosystem service supply potential as it is a simple and practical metric which can be carried out in the field with crowd-sourcing technologies now available. The study emphasises the importance of considering multiple ecosystem services together due to the complexity of covariation at local and national scales, and the benefits of exploiting a wide range of metrics for each service to enhance data robustness.

A new scale-invariant ratio and finite-size scaling for the stochastic susceptible-infected-recovered model

The critical behavior of the stochastic susceptible-infected-recovered model on a square lattice is obtained by numerical simulations and finite-size scaling. The order parameter as well as the distribution in the number of recovered individuals is determined as a function of the infection rate for several values of the system size. The analysis around criticality is obtained by exploring the close relationship between the present model and standard percolation theory. The quantity UP, equal to the ratio U between the second moment and the squared first moment of the size distribution multiplied by the order parameter P, is shown to have, for a square system, a universal value 1.0167(1) that is the same for site and bond percolation, confirming further that the SIR model is also in the percolation class.

Shape classification using complex network and Multi-scale Fractal Dimension

Shape provides one of the most relevant information about an object. This makes shape one of the most important visual attributes used to characterize objects. This paper introduces a novel approach for shape characterization, which combines modeling shape into a complex network and the analysis of its complexity in a dynamic evolution context. Descriptors computed through this approach show to be efficient in shape characterization, incorporating many characteristics, such as scale and rotation invariant. Experiments using two different shape databases (an artificial shapes database and a leaf shape database) are presented in order to evaluate the method. and its results are compared to traditional shape analysis methods found in literature. (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier B.V.

A multi-GPU algorithm for large-scale neuronal networks

Large-scale simulations of parts of the brain using detailed neuronal models to improve our understanding of brain functions are becoming a reality with the usage of supercomputers and large clusters. However, the high acquisition and maintenance cost of these computers, including the physical space, air conditioning, and electrical power, limits the number of simulations of this kind that scientists can perform. Modern commodity graphical cards, based on the CUDA platform, contain graphical processing units (GPUs) composed of hundreds of processors that can simultaneously execute thousands of threads and thus constitute a low-cost solution for many high-performance computing applications. In this work, we present a CUDA algorithm that enables the execution, on multiple GPUs, of simulations of large-scale networks composed of biologically realistic Hodgkin-Huxley neurons. The algorithm represents each neuron as a CUDA thread, which solves the set of coupled differential equations that model each neuron. Communication among neurons located in different GPUs is coordinated by the CPU. We obtained speedups of 40 for the simulation of 200k neurons that received random external input and speedups of 9 for a network with 200k neurons and 20M neuronal connections, in a single computer with two graphic boards with two GPUs each, when compared with a modern quad-core CPU. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Small-Scale Farmers Land Use and Socioeconomic Situation in the Mount Elgon District in Northwestern Kenya : A Minor Field Study - Combined Field Mapping and Interview

This Minor Field Study was carried out during November and December in 2011 in the Mount Elgon District in Western Kenya. The objective was to examine nine small-scale farming household´s land use and socioeconomic situation when they have joined a non-governmental organization (NGO) project, which specifically targets small-scale farming households to improve land use system and socioeconomic situation by the extension of soil and water conservation measures. The survey has worked along three integral examinations methods which are mapping and processing data using GIS, semi structured interviews and literature studies.   This study has adopted a theoretical approach referred to as political ecology, in which landesque capital is a central concept. The result shows that all farmers, except one, have issues with land degradation. However, the extent of the problem and also implemented sustainable soil and water conservation measures were diverse among the farmers. The main causes of this can both be linked to how the farmers themselves utilized their farmland and how impacts from the climate change have modified the terms of the farmers working conditions. These factors have consequently resulted in impacts on the informants’ socioeconomic conditions. Furthermore it was also registered that social and economic elements, in some cases, were the causes of how the farmers manage their farmland. The farmer who had no significant problem with soil erosion had invested in trees and opportunities to irrigate the farmland. In addition, it was also recorded that certain farmers had invested in particular soil and water conservation measures without any significant result. This was probably due to the time span these land measures cover before they start to generate revenue.  The outcome of this study has traced how global, national and local elements exist in a context when it comes to the conditions of the farmers´ land use and their socioeconomic situation. The farmers atMt.Elgon are thereby a component of a wider context when they are both contributory to their socioeconomic situation, mainly due to their land management, and also exposed to core-periphery relationships on which the farmers themselves have no influence.

Good practices in monitoring and reporting on the Millennium Development Goals: National lessons from Latin America

Includes bibliography

Mechanical tillage of degraded mining areas at Jamari national forest (Amazonian forest, Rondônia - BR)

According to the environmental legislation enforced in Brazil and the process of marketing globalization, the commitment of the nations to the preservation of the environment is intensified. By reason of nature's negative responses to its intensive use, awareness then appears from enterprises and agencies about how the anthropic action over the environment needs to be minimized, becoming a challenge: development and sustainability. In this context, the present work made use of the Mechanical tillage of the soil, as a technique to apply, in a large scale, the strategies and methods to recover mined areas that were researched and developed experimentally by researchers on a theme project about the recovering of degraded areas. This work was conducted in the Amazon ecosystem, inside the Jamari National Forest - Rondônia (FLONA do Jamari), in deactivated cassiterite mines. The objectives of this work were to: Develop a computational program capable of managing a database and assist in the selection of machines and preparation methods to execute the operations of topographical reconstitution and tillage of surfaces in areas degraded by the mineral exploitation of cassiterite. Use the program that was developed in the planning of costs and operational development, for the operations required in the strategies for recovering the areas. Analyze the vegetable productivity in the mobilized areas and the quality of the superficial mobilization, making use of indicators and tillage methods. Evaluate, through biological indicators, the efficiency of the recovery strategies and techniques that were mechanized and applied on the location. The results showed that the developed computational program (SGMAD) served the methodological purposes (the analysis of costs and operational capacity) established for the planning and the selection of the tillage machines and methods in the areas of mineral exploitation of cassiterite. The applied methods and quality of the superficial mobilization were significant to the development of leguminous plants in the areas. The use of biological indicators (microbial biomass and enzymatic activity) in the evaluation of the adopted techniques and strategies revealed that the planting of leguminous plants and their posterior incorporation have been promoting gradually positive alterations in some of the analyzed soil/substract parameters. © 2010 WIT Press.

National public investment systems in Barbados, Guyana, Jamaica and Trinidad and Tabago

Includes bibliography

Small-scale mining: a new entrepreneurial approach

Includes bibliography

The Brazilian version of the Neuropsychiatric Inventory-Clinician rating scale (NPI-C): Reliability and validity in dementia

ABSTRACT Background: Patients with dementia may be unable to describe their symptoms, and caregivers frequently suffer emotional burden that can interfere with judgment of the patient's behavior. The Neuropsychiatric Inventory-Clinician rating scale (NPI-C) was therefore developed as a comprehensive and versatile instrument to assess and accurately measure neuropsychiatric symptoms (NPS) in dementia, thereby using information from caregiver and patient interviews, and any other relevant available data. The present study is a follow-up to the original, cross-national NPI-C validation, evaluating the reliability and concurrent validity of the NPI-C in quantifying psychopathological symptoms in dementia in a large Brazilian cohort. Methods: Two blinded raters evaluated 312 participants (156 patient-knowledgeable informant dyads) using the NPI-C for a total of 624 observations in five Brazilian centers. Inter-rater reliability was determined through intraclass correlation coefficients for the NPI-C domains and the traditional NPI. Convergent validity included correlations of specific domains of the NPI-C with the Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale (BPRS), the Cohen-Mansfield Agitation Index (CMAI), the Cornell Scale for Depression in Dementia (CSDD), and the Apathy Inventory (AI). Results: Inter-rater reliability was strong for all NPI-C domains. There were high correlations between NPI-C/delusions and BPRS, NPI-C/apathy-indifference with the AI, NPI-C/depression-dysphoria with the CSDD, NPI-C/agitation with the CMAI, and NPI-C/aggression with the CMAI. There was moderate correlation between the NPI-C/aberrant vocalizations and CMAI and the NPI-C/hallucinations with the BPRS. Conclusion: The NPI-C is a comprehensive tool that provides accurate measurement of NPS in dementia with high concurrent validity and inter-rater reliability in the Brazilian setting. In addition to universal assessment, the NPI-C can be completed by individual domains. © International Psychogeriatric Association 2013.

Aspects correlates with Scandinavian Stroke Scale for predicting early neurological impairment

Objective: To investigate the correlation between the Alberta Program Early CT Score (ASPECTS) and the Scandinavian Stroke Scale (SSS) for the evaluation of neurological impairment in patients with acute stroke. Method: 59 patients with a first acute ischemic stroke were evaluated. The ASPECTS were evaluated by 2 neurologists at admission and by another neurologist after 48 hours. The NIHSS and SSS was applied to determinate stroke severity. Correlations and agreements were analysed statistically by Spearman and Kappa tests. Results: ASPECTS was correlated with National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) at admission (r = -0.52; p < 0.001) and SSS (r = 0.50; p < 0.001). The ASPECTS and SSS items were most correlated with arm (r = 0.52; p < 0.001) and hand (r = 0.49; p < 0.001) motor power, and speech (r = 0.51; p < 0.001). The SSS of 25.5 shows sensitivity (68%) and specificity (72%) when associated with ASPECTS <= 7. Conclusion: The SSS can predict worst neurological impairment when associated with lower values of ASPECTS.

Validation of the Scandinavian stroke scale in a multicultural population in Brazil

Background: The objective of this study was to evaluate the consistency, coherence, and interobserver reliability of the Portuguese version of the Scandinavian Stroke Scale (SSS) in a multicultural population of stroke. Methods: The SSS was translated, culturally adapted, and applied by two independent investigators. This was a randomized transverse study involving two groups: group 1 included 20 patients in the acute phase and group 2 included 20 patients in the subacute phase after stroke was confirmed by computed tomography with a pre-stroke modified Rankin Scale score of 0. Each patient also underwent National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) evaluation at hospital entry and at the time of the SSS evaluation for correlation with our current standard hospital practice. Consistency and coherence were analyzed by Cronbach’s α and interobserver reliability by ĸ. Results: Forty patients were evaluated with 0.88 consistency and coherence in both stroke phases. Mean interobserver ĸ was 0.76, with reliability considered excellent and good for most scale items, and moderate for only the facial palsy item. Conclusion: The SSS is adequate and validated to study post-stroke patients in a multicultural Brazilian population and in the Portuguese language.

Large-Scale Population Analysis Challenges the Current Criteria for the Molecular Diagnosis of Fascioscapulohumeral Muscular Dystrophy

Facioscapulohumeral muscular dystrophy (FSHD) is a common hereditary myopathy causally linked to reduced numbers (<= 8) of 3.3 kilobase D4Z4 tandem repeats at 4q35. However, because individuals carrying D4Z4-reduced alleles and no FSHD and patients with FSHD and no short allele have been observed, additional markers have been proposed to support an FSHD molecular diagnosis. In particular a reduction in the number of D4Z4 elements combined with the 4A(159/161/168)PAS haplotype (which provides the possibility of expressing DUX4) is currently used as the genetic signature uniquely associated with FSHD. Here, we analyzed these DNA elements in more than 800 Italian and Brazilian samples of normal individuals unrelated to any FSHD patients. We find that 3% of healthy subjects carry alleles with a reduced number (4-8) of D4Z4 repeats on chromosome 4q and that one-third of these alleles, 1.3%, occur in combination with the 4A161PAS haplotype. We also systematically characterized the 4q35 haplotype in 253 unrelated FSHD patients. We find that only 127 of them (50.1%) carry alleles with 1-8 D4Z4 repeats associated with 4A161PAS, whereas the remaining FSHD probands carry different haplotypes or alleles with a greater number of D4Z4 repeats. The present study shows that the current genetic signature of FSHD is a common polymorphism and that only half of FSHD probands carry this molecular signature. Our results suggest that the genetic basis of FSHD, which is remarkably heterogeneous, should be revisited, because this has important implications for genetic counseling and prenatal diagnosis of at-risk families.

Signature of the scattering between dark sectors in large scale cosmic microwave background anisotropies

We study the interaction between dark sectors by considering the momentum transfer caused by the dark matter scattering elastically within the dark energy fluid. Describing the dark scattering analogy to the Thomson scattering which couples baryons and photons, we examine the impact of the dark scattering in CMB observations. Performing global fitting with the latest observational data, we find that for a dark energy equation of state w < -1, the CMB gives tight constraints on dark matter-dark energy elastic scattering. Assuming a dark matter particle of proton mass, we derive an elastic scattering cross section of sigma(D) < 3.295 x 10(-10)sigma(T) where sigma(T) is the cross section of Thomson scattering. For w > -1, however, the constraints are poor. For w = -1, sigma(D) can formally take any value.