Dynamics of the East Asian Summer Monsoon in Present and Future Climates

This thesis aims at enhancing our fundamental understanding of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), and mechanisms implicated in its climatology in present-day and warmer climates. We focus on the most prominent feature of the EASM, i.e., the so-called Meiyu-Baiu (MB), which is characterized by a well-defined, southwest to northeast elongated quasi-stationary rainfall band, spanning from eastern China to Japan and into the northwestern Pacific Ocean in June and July.

We begin with an observational study of the energetics of the MB front in present-day climate. Analyses of the moist static energy (MSE) budget of the MB front indicate that horizontal advection of moist enthalpy, primarily of dry enthalpy, sustains the front in a region of otherwise negative net energy input into the atmospheric column. A decomposition of the horizontal dry enthalpy advection into mean, transient, and stationary eddy fluxes identifies the longitudinal thermal gradient due to zonal asymmetries and the meridional stationary eddy velocity as the most influential factors determining the pattern of horizontal moist enthalpy advection. Numerical simulations in which the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is either retained or removed show that the TP influences the stationary enthalpy flux, and hence the MB front, primarily by changing the meridional stationary eddy velocity, with reinforced southerly wind on the northwestern flank of the north Pacific subtropical high (NPSH) over the MB region and northerly wind to its north. Changes in the longitudinal thermal gradient are mainly confined to the near downstream of the TP, with the resulting changes in zonal warm air advection having a lesser impact on the rainfall in the extended MB region.

Similar mechanisms are shown to be implicated in present climate simulations in the Couple Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. We find that the spatial distribution of the EASM precipitation simulated by different models is highly correlated with the meridional stationary eddy velocity. The correlation becomes more robust when energy fluxes into the atmospheric column are considered, consistent with the observational analyses. The spread in the area-averaged rainfall amount can be partially explained by the spread in the simulated globally-averaged precipitation, with the rest primarily due to the lower-level meridional wind convergence. Clear relationships between precipitation and zonal and meridional eddy velocities are observed.

Finally, the response of the EASM to greenhouse gas forcing is investigated at different time scales in CMIP5 model simulations. The reduction of radiative cooling and the increase in continental surface temperature occur much more rapidly than changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Without changes in SSTs, the rainfall in the monsoon region decreases (increases) over ocean (land) in most models. On longer time scales, as SSTs increase, rainfall changes are opposite. The total response to atmospheric CO^2 forcing and subsequent SST warming is a large (modest) increase in rainfall over ocean (land) in the EASM region. Dynamic changes, in spite of significant contributions from the thermodynamic component, play an important role in setting up the spatial pattern of precipitation changes. Rainfall anomalies over East China are a direct consequence of local land-sea contrast, while changes in the larger-scale oceanic rainfall band are closely associated with the displacement of the larger-scale NPSH. Numerical simulations show that topography and SST patterns play an important role in rainfall changes in the EASM region.

Seasonal marine growth of Bristol Bay sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in relation to competition with Asian pink salmon (O. gorbuscha) and the 1977 ocean regime shift

Recent research demonstrated significantly lower growth and survival of Bristol Bay sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) during odd-numbered years of their second or third years at sea (1975, 1977, etc.), a trend that was opposite that of Asian pink salmon (O. gorbuscha) abundance. Here we evaluated seasonal growth trends of Kvichak and Egegik river sockeye salmon (Bristol Bay stocks) during even- and odd-numbered years at sea by measuring scale circuli increments within each g rowth zone of each major salmon age group between 1955 and 2000. First year scale growth was not significantly different between odd- and even-numbered years, but peak growth of age-2 smolts was significantly higher than age-1. smolts. Total second and third year scale growth of salmon was significantly lower during odd- than during even-numbered years. However, reduced scale growth in odd-numbered years began after peak growth in spring and continued through summer and fall even though most pink salmon had left the high seas by late July (10−18% growth reduction in odd vs. even years). The alternating odd and even year growth pattern was consistent before and after the 1977 ocean reg ime shift. During 1977−2000, when salmon abundance was relatively great, sockeye salmon growth was high during specific seasons compared with that during 1955−1976, that is to say, immediately after entry to Bristol Bay, after peak growth in the first year, during the middle of the second growing season, and during spring of the third season. Growth after the spring peak in the third year at sea was relatively low during 1977−2000. We hypothesize that high consumption rates of prey by pink salmon during spring through mid-July of odd-numbered years, coupled with declining zooplankton biomass during summer and potentially cyclic abundances of squid and other prey, contributed to reduced prey availability and therefore reduced growth of Bristol Bay sockeye salmon during late spring through fall of odd-numbered years.

Distribution and Abundance of Steller Sea Lions, Eumetopias jubatus, on the Asian Coast, 1720's-2005

We analyzed published and archived records for the past 250 years to assess changes in distribution and abundance of Steller sea lions, Eumetopias jubatus, along the Asian coast from the Bering Strait to the Korean Peninsula. We found that the northern extent of Steller sea lion distribution has not changed but that the southern limit has moved north by some 500–900 km (~300–500 n.mi.) over the past 50 years. Additionally, the number of animals and their distribution has changed on the Commander Islands, Kuril Islands, and Kamchatka Peninsula. We found no changes in the number of rookeries in the northern Sea of Okhotsk, but a new rookery was established at Tuleny Island on the eastern coast of Sakhalin Island. We estimate that the total abundance of Steller sea lions along the Asian coast in the late 19th century was about 115,000 animals; during the 1960’s, the total estimate was about 27,000 (including pups), most of which were in the Kuril Islands. The fewest number of Steller sea lions occurred in the northwestern Pacific in the late 1980’s–early 1990’s when only about 13,000 individuals (including pups) were estimated in the entire region. During the 1990’s, and especially in early 2000, an increasing trend in abundance occurred in most areas. Present estimated abundance of Steller sea lions in Asia is about 16,000 individuals (including about 5,000 pups), about half of which occur in the Kuril Islands. Changes in abundance occurred during all time periods but varied by site and period. Specifically, over the past 150 years Steller sea lion abundance at most sites has changed. There were no rookeries on the Commander Islands between 1850 and 1960 and abundance was low, but by 1977, abundance increased to 4,800 individuals and a rookery was established in the mid 1980’s; abundance there has declined since the early 1980’s and in 2004 only 895 individuals (including 221 pups) were counted during the breeding season. Between 1940 and 2004, abundance along the eastern coast of Kamchatka declined from ~7,000 to ~600 individuals, an overall reduction of 90%. Steller sea lion abundance on the Kuril Islands declined by >90% from the 1800’s to 2005; the most severe decline there occurred during 1969–1981. Steller sea lion numbers in the northern part of the Sea of Okhotsk declined during 1930–2002 from 7,200 to 3,100 individuals. Numbers at Tuleny Island have increased since establishment of a rookery there during 1983–2005 and by immigration from other sites.

High- and low-latitude climate interactions: evidence for enhanced aridity of Asian monsoon dust source areas after 2.4 MYR from ODP Leg 117 magnetic susceptibility data

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Whole-core magnetic susceptibility can sometimes be used as a rapid and sensitive indicator of variations in the concentration of terrigenous material. We apply this approach to study the evolution of Plio-Pleistocene climatic cycles of terrigenous sedimentation at Ocean Drilling Program Site 721, on the Owen Ridge in the Arabian Sea.

Stable isotopes in paleosols and origins of the Asian monsoon

The stable isotopic composition of buried soil carbonate and organic matter from northern Pakistan and Nepal can be used to reconstruct aspects of the paleoecology of riverine floodplain ecosystems over the past 17 Myr. Probable dry woodland dominated the floodplain biomass of large rivers ancestral to the modern Indus and Ganges up to 7.3 Myr. Between 7.3 and about 6 Myr, tropical grasses gradually displaced woodland and have dominated floodplain biomasses to the present. The paleovegetational transition beginning about 7.3 Myr likely signals the onset of the strongly seasonal precipitation pattern that typifies the monsoonal climate of the region today. One possible analog to the dry woodland soils of the Miocene are found under the Sal woodlands of the northern Indian subcontinent, while undisturbed modern analogs to the Plio-Pleistocene floodplain grasslands can still be found in the Chitwan area of southern Nepal.

Variations in northeast Asian environments over the last 350,000 years reconstructed from pollen records from the northwest Pacific Ocean

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Recent analyses of terrestrial (pollen) and marine microfossils (foraminifera and radiolaria) in cores V28-204 and RC14-99 from the northwest Pacific Ocean extend the continuous, chronostratigraphically-controlled records of the regional vegetation of the Pacific coast of Japan and offshore marine environments through three full glacial cycles. The high-resolution pollen time series show systematic relationships between fluctuations in Japanese vegetation and global ice volume over the last 350 kyr. ... Comparison with solar insolation at 30°N and with an index of orbital parameters suggests that variation in northeast Asian summer monsoon intensity is related to orbital forcing.