A decision support system for cost determination in grain storage facility operations

Many research works have being carried out on analyzing grain storage facility costs; however a few of them had taken into account the analysis of factors associated to all pre-processing and storage steps. The objective of this work was to develop a decision support system for determining the grain storage facility costs and utilization fees in grain storage facilities. The data of a CONAB storage facility located in Ponta Grossa - PR, Brazil, was used as input of the system developed to analyze its specific characteristics, such as amount of product received and stored throughout the year, hourly capacity of drying, cleaning, and receiving, and dispatch. By applying the decision support system, it was observed that the reception and expedition costs were exponentially reduced as the turnover rate of the storage increased. The cleaning and drying costs increased linearly with grain initial moisture. The storage cost increased exponentially as the occupancy rate of the storage facility decreased.

Linguistic models for decision support

Linguistic modelling is a rather new branch of mathematics that is still undergoing rapid development. It is closely related to fuzzy set theory and fuzzy logic, but knowledge and experience from other fields of mathematics, as well as other fields of science including linguistics and behavioral sciences, is also necessary to build appropriate mathematical models. This topic has received considerable attention as it provides tools for mathematical representation of the most common means of human communication - natural language. Adding a natural language level to mathematical models can provide an interface between the mathematical representation of the modelled system and the user of the model - one that is sufficiently easy to use and understand, but yet conveys all the information necessary to avoid misinterpretations. It is, however, not a trivial task and the link between the linguistic and computational level of such models has to be established and maintained properly during the whole modelling process. In this thesis, we focus on the relationship between the linguistic and the mathematical level of decision support models. We discuss several important issues concerning the mathematical representation of meaning of linguistic expressions, their transformation into the language of mathematics and the retranslation of mathematical outputs back into natural language. In the first part of the thesis, our view of the linguistic modelling for decision support is presented and the main guidelines for building linguistic models for real-life decision support that are the basis of our modeling methodology are outlined. From the theoretical point of view, the issues of representation of meaning of linguistic terms, computations with these representations and the retranslation process back into the linguistic level (linguistic approximation) are studied in this part of the thesis. We focus on the reasonability of operations with the meanings of linguistic terms, the correspondence of the linguistic and mathematical level of the models and on proper presentation of appropriate outputs. We also discuss several issues concerning the ethical aspects of decision support - particularly the loss of meaning due to the transformation of mathematical outputs into natural language and the issue or responsibility for the final decisions. In the second part several case studies of real-life problems are presented. These provide background and necessary context and motivation for the mathematical results and models presented in this part. A linguistic decision support model for disaster management is presented here – formulated as a fuzzy linear programming problem and a heuristic solution to it is proposed. Uncertainty of outputs, expert knowledge concerning disaster response practice and the necessity of obtaining outputs that are easy to interpret (and available in very short time) are reflected in the design of the model. Saaty’s analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is considered in two case studies - first in the context of the evaluation of works of art, where a weak consistency condition is introduced and an adaptation of AHP for large matrices of preference intensities is presented. The second AHP case-study deals with the fuzzified version of AHP and its use for evaluation purposes – particularly the integration of peer-review into the evaluation of R&D outputs is considered. In the context of HR management, we present a fuzzy rule based evaluation model (academic faculty evaluation is considered) constructed to provide outputs that do not require linguistic approximation and are easily transformed into graphical information. This is achieved by designing a specific form of fuzzy inference. Finally the last case study is from the area of humanities - psychological diagnostics is considered and a linguistic fuzzy model for the interpretation of outputs of multidimensional questionnaires is suggested. The issue of the quality of data in mathematical classification models is also studied here. A modification of the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) method is presented to reflect variable quality of data instances in the validation set during classifier performance assessment. Twelve publications on which the author participated are appended as a third part of this thesis. These summarize the mathematical results and provide a closer insight into the issues of the practicalapplications that are considered in the second part of the thesis.

Design and Development of a Frame Based MT System for English-to-ISL

This paper presents the design and development of a frame based approach for speech to sign language machine translation system in the domain of railways and banking. This work aims to utilize the capability of Artificial intelligence for the improvement of physically challenged, deaf-mute people. Our work concentrates on the sign language used by the deaf community of Indian subcontinent which is called Indian Sign Language (ISL). Input to the system is the clerk’s speech and the output of this system is a 3D virtual human character playing the signs for the uttered phrases. The system builds up 3D animation from pre-recorded motion capture data. Our work proposes to build a Malayalam to ISL

Memory Usage Inference for Object-Oriented Programs

We present a type-based approach to statically derive symbolic closed-form formulae that characterize the bounds of heap memory usages of programs written in object-oriented languages. Given a program with size and alias annotations, our inference system will compute the amount of memory required by the methods to execute successfully as well as the amount of memory released when methods return. The obtained analysis results are useful for networked devices with limited computational resources as well as embedded software.

Distributed intelligent management of active networks

This paper focuses on improving computer network management by the adoption of artificial intelligence techniques. A logical inference system has being devised to enable automated isolation, diagnosis, and even repair of network problems, thus enhancing the reliability, performance, and security of networks. We propose a distributed multi-agent architecture for network management, where a logical reasoner acts as an external managing entity capable of directing, coordinating, and stimulating actions in an active management architecture. The active networks technology represents the lower level layer which makes possible the deployment of code which implement teleo-reactive agents, distributed across the whole network. We adopt the Situation Calculus to define a network model and the Reactive Golog language to implement the logical reasoner. An active network management architecture is used by the reasoner to inject and execute operational tasks in the network. The integrated system collects the advantages coming from logical reasoning and network programmability, and provides a powerful system capable of performing high-level management tasks in order to deal with network fault.

Distributed fuzzy logic for building management systems using local operating networks

This paper describes the development of an experimental distributed fuzzy control system for heating and ventilation (HVAC) systems within a building. Each local control loop is affected by a number of local variables, as well as information from neighboring controllers. By including this additional information it is hoped that a more equal allocation of resources can be achieved.

Automated two-dimensional separation flow system with electrochemical preconcentration, stripping, capillary electrophoresis and contactless conductivity detection for trace metal ion analysis

This paper describes the automation of a fully electrochemical system for preconcentration, cleanup, separation and detection, comprising the hyphenation of a thin layer electrochemical flow cell with CE coupled with contactless conductivity detection (CE-C(4)D). Traces of heavy metal ions were extracted from the pulsed-flowing sample and accumulated on a glassy carbon working electrode by electroreduction for some minutes. Anodic stripping of the accumulated metals was synchronized with hydrodynamic injection into the capillary. The effect of the angle of the slant polished tip of the CE capillary and its orientation against the working electrode in the electrochemical preconcentration (EPC) flow cell and of the accumulation time were studied, aiming at maximum CE-C(4)D signal enhancement. After 6 min of EPC, enhancement factors close to 50 times were obtained for thallium, lead, cadmium and copper ions, and about 16 for zinc ions. Limits of detection below 25 nmol/L were estimated for all target analytes but zinc. A second separation dimension was added to the CE separation capabilities by staircase scanning of the potentiostatic deposition and/or stripping potentials of metal ions, as implemented with the EPC-CE-C(4)D flow system. A matrix exchange between the deposition and stripping steps, highly valuable for sample cleanup, can be straightforwardly programmed with the multi-pumping flow management system. The automated simultaneous determination of the traces of five accumulable heavy metals together with four non-accumulated alkaline and alkaline earth metals in a single run was demonstrated, to highlight the potentiality of the system.

Hand Gesture Detection & Recognition System

The project introduces an application using computer vision for Hand gesture recognition. A camera records a live video stream, from which a snapshot is taken with the help of interface. The system is trained for each type of count hand gestures (one, two, three, four, and five) at least once. After that a test gesture is given to it and the system tries to recognize it.A research was carried out on a number of algorithms that could best differentiate a hand gesture. It was found that the diagonal sum algorithm gave the highest accuracy rate. In the preprocessing phase, a self-developed algorithm removes the background of each training gesture. After that the image is converted into a binary image and the sums of all diagonal elements of the picture are taken. This sum helps us in differentiating and classifying different hand gestures.Previous systems have used data gloves or markers for input in the system. I have no such constraints for using the system. The user can give hand gestures in view of the camera naturally. A completely robust hand gesture recognition system is still under heavy research and development; the implemented system serves as an extendible foundation for future work.

Speed prediction for triggering vehicle activated signs

Accurate speed prediction is a crucial step in the development of a dynamic vehcile activated sign (VAS). A previous study showed that the optimal trigger speed of such signs will need to be pre-determined according to the nature of the site and to the traffic conditions. The objective of this paper is to find an accurate predictive model based on historical traffic speed data to derive the optimal trigger speed for such signs. Adaptive neuro fuzzy (ANFIS), classification and regression tree (CART) and random forest (RF) were developed to predict one step ahead speed during all times of the day. The developed models were evaluated and compared to the results obtained from artificial neural network (ANN), multiple linear regression (MLR) and naïve prediction using traffic speed data collected at four sites located in Sweden. The data were aggregated into two periods, a short term period (5-min) and a long term period (1-hour). The results of this study showed that using RF is a promising method for predicting mean speed in the two proposed periods.. It is concluded that in terms of performance and computational complexity, a simplistic input features to the predicitive model gave a marked increase in the response time of the model whilse still delivering a low prediction error.

Previsão em tempo atual de cheias com uso de sistema especialista difuso

Sistemas de previsão de cheias podem ser adequadamente utilizados quando o alcance é suficiente, em comparação com o tempo necessário para ações preventivas ou corretivas. Além disso, são fundamentalmente importantes a confiabilidade e a precisão das previsões. Previsões de níveis de inundação são sempre aproximações, e intervalos de confiança não são sempre aplicáveis, especialmente com graus de incerteza altos, o que produz intervalos de confiança muito grandes. Estes intervalos são problemáticos, em presença de níveis fluviais muito altos ou muito baixos. Neste estudo, previsões de níveis de cheia são efetuadas, tanto na forma numérica tradicional quanto na forma de categorias, para as quais utiliza-se um sistema especialista baseado em regras e inferências difusas. Metodologias e procedimentos computacionais para aprendizado, simulação e consulta são idealizados, e então desenvolvidos sob forma de um aplicativo (SELF – Sistema Especialista com uso de Lógica “Fuzzy”), com objetivo de pesquisa e operação. As comparações, com base nos aspectos de utilização para a previsão, de sistemas especialistas difusos e modelos empíricos lineares, revelam forte analogia, apesar das diferenças teóricas fundamentais existentes. As metodologias são aplicadas para previsão na bacia do rio Camaquã (15543 km2), para alcances entre 10 e 48 horas. Dificuldades práticas à aplicação são identificadas, resultando em soluções as quais constituem-se em avanços do conhecimento e da técnica. Previsões, tanto na forma numérica quanto categorizada são executadas com sucesso, com uso dos novos recursos. As avaliações e comparações das previsões são feitas utilizandose um novo grupo de estatísticas, derivadas das freqüências simultâneas de ocorrência de valores observados e preditos na mesma categoria, durante a simulação. Os efeitos da variação da densidade da rede são analisados, verificando-se que sistemas de previsão pluvio-hidrométrica em tempo atual são possíveis, mesmo com pequeno número de postos de aquisição de dados de chuva, para previsões sob forma de categorias difusas.

Técnicas de inteligência artificial para a geração dinâmica de set points para uma coluna de destilação

Artificial Intelligence techniques are applied to improve performance of a simulated oil distillation system. The chosen system was a debutanizer column. At this process, the feed, which comes to the column, is segmented by heating. The lightest components become steams, by forming the LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas). The others components, C5+, continue liquid. In the composition of the LPG, ideally, we have only propane and butanes, but, in practice, there are contaminants, for example, pentanes. The objective of this work is to control pentane amount in LPG, by means of intelligent set points (SP s) determination for PID controllers that are present in original instrumentation (regulatory control) of the column. A fuzzy system will be responsible for adjusting the SP's, driven by the comparison between the molar fraction of the pentane present in the output of the plant (LPG) and the desired amount. However, the molar fraction of pentane is difficult to measure on-line, due to constraints such as: long intervals of measurement, high reliability and low cost. Therefore, an inference system was used, based on a multilayer neural network, to infer the pentane molar fraction through secondary variables of the column. Finally, the results shown that the proposed control system were able to control the value of pentane molar fraction under different operational situations

Inferência fuzzy para o problema de corte de estoque com sobras aproveitáveis de material

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Sistema automático para o controle eficiente de iluminação para multiplas lâmpadas fluorescentes

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Risk prediction for weed infestation using classification rules

This paper proposes a fuzzy classification system for the risk of infestation by weeds in agricultural zones considering the variability of weeds. The inputs of the system are features of the infestation extracted from estimated maps by kriging for the weed seed production and weed coverage, and from the competitiveness, inferred from narrow and broad-leaved weeds. Furthermore, a Bayesian network classifier is used to extract rules from data which are compared to the fuzzy rule set obtained on the base of specialist knowledge. Results for the risk inference in a maize crop field are presented and evaluated by the estimated yield loss. © 2009 IEEE.

Classificação da curvatura de vertentes em perfil via Thin Plate Spline e Inferência Fuzzy

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)