A Multiple Criteria Utility-based Approa h for the Unit Commitment with Wind Power and Pumped Storage Hydro

The integration of wind power in eletricity generation brings new challenges to unit commitment due to the random nature of wind speed. For this particular optimisation problem, wind uncertainty has been handled in practice by means of conservative stochastic scenario-based optimisation models, or through additional operating reserve settings. However, generation companies may have different attitudes towards operating costs, load curtailment, or waste of wind energy, when considering the risk caused by wind power variability. Therefore, alternative and possibly more adequate approaches should be explored. This work is divided in two main parts. Firstly we survey the main formulations presented in the literature for the integration of wind power in the unit commitment problem (UCP) and present an alternative model for the wind-thermal unit commitment. We make use of the utility theory concepts to develop a multi-criteria stochastic model. The objectives considered are the minimisation of costs, load curtailment and waste of wind energy. Those are represented by individual utility functions and aggregated in a single additive utility function. This last function is adequately linearised leading to a mixed-integer linear program (MILP) model that can be tackled by general-purpose solvers in order to find the most preferred solution. In the second part we discuss the integration of pumped-storage hydro (PSH) units in the UCP with large wind penetration. Those units can provide extra flexibility by using wind energy to pump and store water in the form of potential energy that can be generated after during peak load periods. PSH units are added to the first model, yielding a MILP model with wind-hydro-thermal coordination. Results showed that the proposed methodology is able to reflect the risk profiles of decision makers for both models. By including PSH units, the results are significantly improved.

Which screening strategy using BMD measurements would be most cost effective for hip fracture prevention in elderly women? A decision analysis based on a Markov model.

INTRODUCTION: Hip fractures are responsible for excessive mortality, decreasing the 5-year survival rate by about 20%. From an economic perspective, they represent a major source of expense, with direct costs in hospitalization, rehabilitation, and institutionalization. The incidence rate sharply increases after the age of 70, but it can be reduced in women aged 70-80 years by therapeutic interventions. Recent analyses suggest that the most efficient strategy is to implement such interventions in women at the age of 70 years. As several guidelines recommend bone mineral density (BMD) screening of postmenopausal women with clinical risk factors, our objective was to assess the cost-effectiveness of two screening strategies applied to elderly women aged 70 years and older. METHODS: A cost-effectiveness analysis was performed using decision-tree analysis and a Markov model. Two alternative strategies, one measuring BMD of all women, and one measuring BMD only of those having at least one risk factor, were compared with the reference strategy "no screening". Cost-effectiveness ratios were measured as cost per year gained without hip fracture. Most probabilities were based on data observed in EPIDOS, SEMOF and OFELY cohorts. RESULTS: In this model, which is mostly based on observed data, the strategy "screen all" was more cost effective than "screen women at risk." For one woman screened at the age of 70 and followed for 10 years, the incremental (additional) cost-effectiveness ratio of these two strategies compared with the reference was 4,235 euros and 8,290 euros, respectively. CONCLUSION: The results of this model, under the assumptions described in the paper, suggest that in women aged 70-80 years, screening all women with dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) would be more effective than no screening or screening only women with at least one risk factor. Cost-effectiveness studies based on decision-analysis trees maybe useful tools for helping decision makers, and further models based on different assumptions should be performed to improve the level of evidence on cost-effectiveness ratios of the usual screening strategies for osteoporosis.

Novel loci for adiponectin levels and their influence on type 2 diabetes and metabolic traits: a multi-ethnic meta-analysis of 45,891 individuals.

Circulating levels of adiponectin, a hormone produced predominantly by adipocytes, are highly heritable and are inversely associated with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) and other metabolic traits. We conducted a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies in 39,883 individuals of European ancestry to identify genes associated with metabolic disease. We identified 8 novel loci associated with adiponectin levels and confirmed 2 previously reported loci (P = 4.5×10(-8)-1.2×10(-43)). Using a novel method to combine data across ethnicities (N = 4,232 African Americans, N = 1,776 Asians, and N = 29,347 Europeans), we identified two additional novel loci. Expression analyses of 436 human adipocyte samples revealed that mRNA levels of 18 genes at candidate regions were associated with adiponectin concentrations after accounting for multiple testing (p<3×10(-4)). We next developed a multi-SNP genotypic risk score to test the association of adiponectin decreasing risk alleles on metabolic traits and diseases using consortia-level meta-analytic data. This risk score was associated with increased risk of T2D (p = 4.3×10(-3), n = 22,044), increased triglycerides (p = 2.6×10(-14), n = 93,440), increased waist-to-hip ratio (p = 1.8×10(-5), n = 77,167), increased glucose two hours post oral glucose tolerance testing (p = 4.4×10(-3), n = 15,234), increased fasting insulin (p = 0.015, n = 48,238), but with lower in HDL-cholesterol concentrations (p = 4.5×10(-13), n = 96,748) and decreased BMI (p = 1.4×10(-4), n = 121,335). These findings identify novel genetic determinants of adiponectin levels, which, taken together, influence risk of T2D and markers of insulin resistance.

Decision analysis of the effectiveness of lung cancer screening using autofluorescence bronchoscopy and computed tomography

Background: Lung cancer (LC) is the leading cause of cancer death in the developed world. Most cancers are associated with tobacco smoking. A primary hope for reducing lung cancer has been prevention of smoking and successful smoking cessation programs. To date, these programs have not been as successful as anticipated. Objective: The aim of the current study was to evaluate whether lung cancer screening combining low dose computed tomography with autofluorescence bronchoscopy (combined CT & AFB) is superior to CT or AFB screening alone in improving lung cancer specific survival. In addition, the extent of improvement and ideal conditions for combined CT & AFB screening were evaluated. Methods: We applied decision analysis and Monte Carlo simulation modeling using TreeAge Software to evaluate our study aims. Histology- and stage specific probabilities of lung cancer 5-year survival proportions were taken from Surveillance and Epidemiologic End Results (SEER) Registry data. Screeningassociated data was taken from the US NCI Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (PLCO), National Lung Screening Trial (NLST), and US NCI Lung Screening Study (LSS), other relevant published data and expert opinion. Results: Decision Analysis - Combined CT and AFB was the best approach at Improving 5-year survival (Overall Expected Survival (OES) in the entire screened population was 0.9863) and in lung cancer patients only (Lung Cancer Specific Expected Survival (LOSES) was 0.3256). Combined screening was slightly better than CT screening alone (OES = 0.9859; LCSES = 0.2966), and substantially better than AFB screening alone (OES = 0.9842; LCSES = 0.2124), which was considerably better than no screening (OES = 0.9829; LCSES = 0.1445). Monte Carlo simulation modeling revealed that expected survival in the screened population and lung cancer patients is highest when screened using CT and combined CT and AFB. CT alone and combined screening was substantially better than AFB screening alone or no screening. For LCSES, combined CT and AFB screening is significantly better than CT alone (0.3126 vs. 0.2938, p< 0.0001). Conclusions: Overall, these analyses suggest that combined CT and AFB is slightly better than CT alone at improving lung cancer survival, and both approaches are substantially better than AFB screening alone or no screening.

Decision analysis exercises

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A formalization for multi-agent decision support in cooperative environments. A framework for situated agents

La tesis propone un marco de trabajo para el soporte de la toma de decisiones adecuado para soportar la ejecución distribuida de acciones cooperativas en entornos multi-agente dinámicos y complejos. Soporte para la toma de decisiones es un proceso que intenta mejorar la ejecución de la toma de decisiones en escenarios cooperativos. Este proceso ocurre continuamente en la vida diaria. Los humanos, por ejemplo, deben tomar decisiones acerca de que ropa usar, que comida comer, etc. En este sentido, un agente es definido como cualquier cosa que está situada en un entorno y que actúa, basado en su observación, su interpretación y su conocimiento acerca de su situación en tal entorno para lograr una acción en particular.Por lo tanto, para tomar decisiones, los agentes deben considerar el conocimiento que les permita ser consientes en que acciones pueden o no ejecutar. Aquí, tal proceso toma en cuenta tres parámetros de información con la intención de personificar a un agente en un entorno típicamente físico. Así, el mencionado conjunto de información es conocido como ejes de decisión, los cuales deben ser tomados por los agentes para decidir si pueden ejecutar correctamente una tarea propuesta por otro agente o humano. Los agentes, por lo tanto, pueden hacer mejores decisiones considerando y representando apropiadamente tal información. Los ejes de decisión, principalmente basados en: las condiciones ambientales, el conocimiento físico y el valor de confianza del agente, provee a los sistemas multi-agente un confiable razonamiento para alcanzar un factible y exitoso rendimiento cooperativo.Actualmente, muchos investigadores tienden a generar nuevos avances en la tecnología agente para incrementar la inteligencia, autonomía, comunicación y auto-adaptación en escenarios agentes típicamente abierto y distribuidos. En este sentido, esta investigación intenta contribuir en el desarrollo de un nuevo método que impacte tanto en las decisiones individuales como colectivas de los sistemas multi-agente. Por lo tanto, el marco de trabajo propuesto ha sido utilizado para implementar las acciones concretas involucradas en el campo de pruebas del fútbol robótico. Este campo emula los juegos de fútbol real, donde los agentes deben coordinarse, interactuar y cooperar entre ellos para solucionar tareas complejas dentro de un escenario dinámicamente cambiante y competitivo, tanto para manejar el diseño de los requerimientos involucrados en las tareas como para demostrar su efectividad en trabajos colectivos. Es así que los resultados obtenidos tanto en el simulador como en el campo real de experimentación, muestran que el marco de trabajo para el soporte de decisiones propuesto para agentes situados es capaz de mejorar la interacción y la comunicación, reflejando en un adecuad y confiable trabajo en equipo dentro de entornos impredecibles, dinámicos y competitivos. Además, los experimentos y resultados también muestran que la información seleccionada para generar los ejes de decisión para situar a los agentes, es útil cuando tales agentes deben ejecutar una acción o hacer un compromiso en cada momento con la intención de cumplir exitosamente un objetivo colectivo. Finalmente, algunas conclusiones enfatizando las ventajas y utilidades del trabajo propuesto en la mejora del rendimiento colectivo de los sistemas multi-agente en situaciones tales como tareas coordinadas y asignación de tareas son presentadas.

Key performance indicators (KPIs) and priority setting in using the multi-attribute approach for assessing sustainable intelligent buildings

The main objectives of this paper are to: firstly, identify key issues related to sustainable intelligent buildings (environmental, social, economic and technological factors); develop a conceptual model for the selection of the appropriate KPIs; secondly, test critically stakeholder's perceptions and values of selected KPIs intelligent buildings; and thirdly develop a new model for measuring the level of sustainability for sustainable intelligent buildings. This paper uses a consensus-based model (Sustainable Built Environment Tool- SuBETool), which is analysed using the analytical hierarchical process (AHP) for multi-criteria decision-making. The use of the multi-attribute model for priority setting in the sustainability assessment of intelligent buildings is introduced. The paper commences by reviewing the literature on sustainable intelligent buildings research and presents a pilot-study investigating the problems of complexity and subjectivity. This study is based upon a survey perceptions held by selected stakeholders and the value they attribute to selected KPIs. It is argued that the benefit of the new proposed model (SuBETool) is a ‘tool’ for ‘comparative’ rather than an absolute measurement. It has the potential to provide useful lessons from current sustainability assessment methods for strategic future of sustainable intelligent buildings in order to improve a building's performance and to deliver objective outcomes. Findings of this survey enrich the field of intelligent buildings in two ways. Firstly, it gives a detailed insight into the selection of sustainable building indicators, as well as their degree of importance. Secondly, it tesst critically stakeholder's perceptions and values of selected KPIs intelligent buildings. It is concluded that the priority levels for selected criteria is largely dependent on the integrated design team, which includes the client, architects, engineers and facilities managers.

Criteria for analysis of the structure of electronic scientific journals

This paper is the result of the Masters dissertation studying the role and history of scientific communication, especially the changes that have occurred after the appearance of electronic communication and computer networks. This study showed that hypertext systems are increasingly being used in the scientific and academic world in the production of electronic journals; this makes it possible for the user to rapidly access information in their area. However, these systems need to be improved to help the user during search and access to information. Both printed journals migrating to electronic media, and the exclusively electronic journals should present the current quality indicators. The attempt was made to discover whether characteristics related to printed journals are being maintained in their electronic counterparts. For this, a prototype model was developed to analyze the structure of electronic scientific journals; it composes 14 criteria expressing aspects of quality for these journals. It includes elements of Website Information Architecture and those already in place in printed scientific journals in order to ensure that basic functions - archiving and dissemination - are maintained in electronic publishing. Each criterion consists of variables, which measure the maintenance of these functions both in the migrating printed journals and the exclusively electronic ones. This prototype model was used to analyze Ciência da Informação On-line and DataGramaZero - Revista de Ciência da Informação. Results indicate that this model is able to find out if the basic functions of archiving and dissemination are being maintained in electronic journals. Therefore, its implementation is justified in electronic journals. The model can help librarians, authors, and users of electronic journals to identify quality journals, and assist editors in developing their projects. The material from the study may be included in the preservice and inservice education of Information Science professionals and to support editors of scientific journals.

Modelagem da decisão por pacotes de viagem: um estudo usando processo de hierarquia analítica AHP

The objective of this dissertation is to propose a Multi Criteria Decision Aid Model to be used by the costumers of the travel agencies and help them to choose the best package travel. The main objective is to contribute for the simplification of the travel package decision choice from the identification of the models of values and preference of the customers and applying them to the existing package. It is used the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method to structuralize a decision hierarchic model composed by six criteria (package cost, hotel category, security of the city, travel time, direct flight and position in ranking of the 10 most visited destination) and five real alternatives of packages for a holiday of three days created from travel agency data. The decision analysis was realized for the choice of a travel package by a group composed by two couples that regularly travels together, to which was asked to do a pairwise judgment of the criteria and the alternatives. The mains results show that, although been a group that travels together, there are different models of values in the weights of the criteria and a certain convergence in the scales of preferences of the alternatives in the criteria. It was not pointed a dominant alternative for all the members of the group separately, but an analysis of a total utility of the group shows a classification and an order of the travel packages and an alternative clearly in front of the others. The sensitivity analysis revels that there are changes in the ranking, but the two alternatives best classified in the normal analysis are the same ones in the sensitivity analysis, although with the positions changed. The analysis also led to a simplification of the process with the exclusion of alternatives dominated for the others ones. As main conclusion, it is evaluated that the model and method suggested allow a simplification of the decision process in the choice of travel packages

Análise de decisão multicritério na localização de usinas termoelétricas utilizando SIG

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Fatores que Influenciam a flexibilidade da produção de veículos comerciais

Pós-graduação em Engenharia de Produção - FEG