Land use modelling and the role of stakeholders in natural protected areas: the case of Doñana national park, Spain

Doñana, a National Park since 1969, a UNESCO site since 1994 among other protected area designations of national and international character, is a coastal dune and marshland ecosystem of outstanding importance for biodiversity and conservation at the mouth of the Guadalaquivir River, Southwest Spain. However, the Doñana natural area is seriously threatened by global change factors such as humanly induced climate change, habitat loss, overexploitation of ecosystem services, and pollution. Not all stakeholders are convinced of the benefits of the national park, and management of Doñana, its environs and watershed are the subject of intense disagreement. This interplay between natural characteristics of great value with intense human pressure makes Doñana a fascinating workshop for the study of global human environment interactions. Here, we discuss the role of stakeholders in the application of a cellular automatabased model to Doñana and its environs and present the results of a series of exercises undertaken with stakeholders to parametrize the model, something often done by researchers without stakeholder engagement. By engaging with stakeholders early in the project, feedback generated from workshops contributes to model development. Stakeholders are therefore contributors of empirical data for the model as well as independent evaluators providing local and specialist knowledge.

A cooperative multi-agent robotics system: design and modelling

This paper presents the development of the robotic multi-agent system SMART. In this system, the agent concept is applied to both hardware and software entities. Hardware agents are robots, with three and four legs, and an IP-camera that takes images of the scene where the cooperative task is carried out. Hardware agents strongly cooperate with software agents. These latter agents can be classified into image processing, communications, task management and decision making, planning and trajectory generation agents. To model, control and evaluate the performance of cooperative tasks among agents, a kind of PetriNet, called Work-Flow Petri Net, is used. Experimental results shows the good performance of the system.

Analysis and Modelling of the Structural Components of the Elbow Joint

A recent application of computer simulation is its use for the human body, which resembles a mechanism that is complemented by torques in the joints that are caused by the action of muscles and tendons. Among others, the application can be used to provide training in surgical procedures or to learn how the body works. Some of the other applications are to make a biped walk upright, to build robots that are designed on the human body or to make prostheses or robot arms to perform specific tasks. One of the uses of simulation is to optimise the movement of the human body by examining which muscles are activated and which should or should not be activated in order to improve a person?s movements. This work presents a model of the elbow joint, and by analysing the constraint equations using classic methods we go on to model the bones, muscles and tendons as well as the logic linked to the force developed by them when faced with a specific movement. To do this, we analyse the reference bibliography and the software available to perform the validation.

Using Knowledge Modelling Tools for Agent-Based Systems: The Experience of KSM

The aim of this chapter is to discuss the applicability of recently proposed knowledge modelling tools to the development of agent-based systems. The discussion is derived from the real world experience of a particular software tool called KSM (Knowledge Structure Manager). The chapter provides details about this tool and then proceeds to show in which forms the software may be used to support the development of agent-based systems. Two multiagent systems, one in the field of telecommunications management and the other one in the field of flood control, are described. Conclusions about these studies are presented, summarizing the main contributions that knowledge modelling tools can bring to the development of agent-based systems.

Caracterización de Sistemas intensivos en Software desde un punto de vista de innovación=Characterizing Software-intensive Systems from the innovation point of view

La innovación en Sistemas Intesivos en Software está alcanzando relevancia por múltiples razones: el software está presente en sectores como automóvil, teléfonos móviles o salud. Las empresas necesitan conocer aquellos factores que afectan a la innovación para incrementar las probabilidades de éxito en el desarrollo de sus productos y, la evaluación de productos sofware es un mecanismo potente para capturar este conocimiento. En consecuencia, las empresas necesitan evaluar sus productos desde la perpectiva de innovación para reducir la distancia entre los productos desarrollados y el mercado. Esto es incluso más relevante en el caso de los productos intensivos en software, donde el tiempo real, la oportunidad, complejidad, interoperabilidad, capacidad de respuesta y compartción de recursos son características críticas de los nuevos sistemas. La evaluación de la innovación de productos ya ha sido estudiada y se han definido algunos esquemas de evaluación pero no son específicos para Sistemas intensivos en Sofwtare; además, no se ha alcanzado consenso en los factores ni el procedimiento de evaluación. Por lo tanto, tiene sentido trabajar en la definición de un marco de evaluación de innovación enfocado a Sistemas intesivos en Software. Esta tesis identifica los elementos necesarios para construir in marco para la evaluación de de Sistemas intensivos en Software desde el punto de vista de la innovación. Se han identificado dos componentes como partes del marco de evaluación: un modelo de referencia y una herramienta adaptativa y personalizable para la realización de la evaluación y posicionamiento de la innovación. El modelo de referencia está compuesto por cuatro elementos principales que caracterizan la evaluación de innovación de productos: los conceptos, modelos de innovación, cuestionarios de evaluación y la evaluación de productos. El modelo de referencia aporta las bases para definir instancias de los modelos de evaluación de innovación de productos que pueden se evaluados y posicionados en la herramienta a través de cuestionarios y que de forma automatizada aporta los resultados de la evaluación y el posicionamiento respecto a la innovación de producto. El modelo de referencia ha sido rigurosamente construido aplicando modelado conceptual e integración de vistas junto con la aplicación de métodos cualitativos de investigación. La herramienta ha sido utilizada para evaluar productos como Skype a través de la instanciación del modelo de referencia. ABSTRACT Innovation in Software intensive Systems is becoming relevant for several reasons: software is present embedded in many sectors like automotive, robotics, mobile phones or heath care. Firms need to have knowledge about factors affecting the innovation to increase the probability of success in their product development and the assessment of innovation in software products is a powerful mechanism to capture this knowledge. Therefore, companies need to assess products from an innovation perspective to reduce the gap between their developed products and the market. This is even more relevant in the case of SiSs, where real time, timeliness, complexity, interoperability, reactivity, and resource sharing are critical features of a new system. Many authors have analysed product innovation assessment and some schemas have been developed but they are not specific to SiSs; in addition, there is no consensus about the factors or the procedures for performing an assessment. Therefore, it has sense to work in the definition of a customized software product innovation evaluation framework. This thesis identifies the elements needed to build a framework to assess software products from the innovation perspective. Two components have been identified as part of the framework to assess Software intensive Systems from the innovation perspective: a reference-model and an adaptive and customizable tool to perform the assessment and to position product innovation. The reference-model is composed by four main elements characterizing product innovation assessment: concepts, innovation models, assessment questionnaires and product assessment. The reference model provides the umbrella to define instances of product innovation assessment models that can be assessed and positioned through questionnaires in the proposed tool that also provides automation in the assessment and positioning of innovation. The reference-model has been rigorously built by applying conceptual modelling and view integration integrated with qualitative research methods. The tool has been used to assess products like Skype through models instantiated from the reference-model.

Development and implementation of an air quality integrated assessment modelling system for the Iberian Peninsula

La mejora de la calidad del aire es una tarea eminentemente interdisciplinaria. Dada la gran variedad de ciencias y partes involucradas, dicha mejora requiere de herramientas de evaluación simples y completamente integradas. La modelización para la evaluación integrada (integrated assessment modeling) ha demostrado ser una solución adecuada para la descripción de los sistemas de contaminación atmosférica puesto que considera cada una de las etapas involucradas: emisiones, química y dispersión atmosférica, impactos ambientales asociados y potencial de disminución. Varios modelos de evaluación integrada ya están disponibles a escala continental, cubriendo cada una de las etapas antesmencionadas, siendo el modelo GAINS (Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies) el más reconocido y usado en el contexto europeo de toma de decisiones medioambientales. Sin embargo, el manejo de la calidad del aire a escala nacional/regional dentro del marco de la evaluación integrada es deseable. Esto sin embargo, no se lleva a cabo de manera satisfactoria con modelos a escala europea debido a la falta de resolución espacial o de detalle en los datos auxiliares, principalmente los inventarios de emisión y los patrones meteorológicos, entre otros. El objetivo de esta tesis es presentar los desarrollos en el diseño y aplicación de un modelo de evaluación integrada especialmente concebido para España y Portugal. El modelo AERIS (Atmospheric Evaluation and Research Integrated system for Spain) es capaz de cuantificar perfiles de concentración para varios contaminantes (NO2, SO2, PM10, PM2,5, NH3 y O3), el depósito atmosférico de especies de azufre y nitrógeno así como sus impactos en cultivos, vegetación, ecosistemas y salud como respuesta a cambios porcentuales en las emisiones de sectores relevantes. La versión actual de AERIS considera 20 sectores de emisión, ya sea equivalentes a sectores individuales SNAP o macrosectores, cuya contribución a los niveles de calidad del aire, depósito e impactos han sido modelados a través de matrices fuentereceptor (SRMs). Estas matrices son constantes de proporcionalidad que relacionan cambios en emisiones con diferentes indicadores de calidad del aire y han sido obtenidas a través de parametrizaciones estadísticas de un modelo de calidad del aire (AQM). Para el caso concreto de AERIS, su modelo de calidad del aire “de origen” consistió en el modelo WRF para la meteorología y en el modelo CMAQ para los procesos químico-atmosféricos. La cuantificación del depósito atmosférico, de los impactos en ecosistemas, cultivos, vegetación y salud humana se ha realizado siguiendo las metodologías estándar establecidas bajo los marcos internacionales de negociación, tales como CLRTAP. La estructura de programación está basada en MATLAB®, permitiendo gran compatibilidad con software típico de escritorio comoMicrosoft Excel® o ArcGIS®. En relación con los niveles de calidad del aire, AERIS es capaz de proveer datos de media anual y media mensual, así como el 19o valor horario más alto paraNO2, el 25o valor horario y el 4o valor diario más altos para SO2, el 36o valor diario más alto para PM10, el 26o valor octohorario más alto, SOMO35 y AOT40 para O3. En relación al depósito atmosférico, el depósito acumulado anual por unidad de area de especies de nitrógeno oxidado y reducido al igual que de azufre pueden ser determinados. Cuando los valores anteriormente mencionados se relacionan con características del dominio modelado tales como uso de suelo, cubiertas vegetales y forestales, censos poblacionales o estudios epidemiológicos, un gran número de impactos puede ser calculado. Centrándose en los impactos a ecosistemas y suelos, AERIS es capaz de estimar las superaciones de cargas críticas y las superaciones medias acumuladas para especies de nitrógeno y azufre. Los daños a bosques se calculan como una superación de los niveles críticos de NO2 y SO2 establecidos. Además, AERIS es capaz de cuantificar daños causados por O3 y SO2 en vid, maíz, patata, arroz, girasol, tabaco, tomate, sandía y trigo. Los impactos en salud humana han sido modelados como consecuencia de la exposición a PM2,5 y O3 y cuantificados como pérdidas en la esperanza de vida estadística e indicadores de mortalidad prematura. La exactitud del modelo de evaluación integrada ha sido contrastada estadísticamente con los resultados obtenidos por el modelo de calidad del aire convencional, exhibiendo en la mayoría de los casos un buen nivel de correspondencia. Debido a que la cuantificación de los impactos no es llevada a cabo directamente por el modelo de calidad del aire, un análisis de credibilidad ha sido realizado mediante la comparación de los resultados de AERIS con los de GAINS para un escenario de emisiones determinado. El análisis reveló un buen nivel de correspondencia en las medias y en las distribuciones probabilísticas de los conjuntos de datos. Las pruebas de verificación que fueron aplicadas a AERIS sugieren que los resultados son suficientemente consistentes para ser considerados como razonables y realistas. En conclusión, la principal motivación para la creación del modelo fue el producir una herramienta confiable y a la vez simple para el soporte de las partes involucradas en la toma de decisiones, de cara a analizar diferentes escenarios “y si” con un bajo coste computacional. La interacción con políticos y otros actores dictó encontrar un compromiso entre la complejidad del modeladomedioambiental con el carácter conciso de las políticas, siendo esto algo que AERIS refleja en sus estructuras conceptual y computacional. Finalmente, cabe decir que AERIS ha sido creado para su uso exclusivo dentro de un marco de evaluación y de ninguna manera debe ser considerado como un sustituto de los modelos de calidad del aire ordinarios. ABSTRACT Improving air quality is an eminently inter-disciplinary task. The wide variety of sciences and stakeholders that are involved call for having simple yet fully-integrated and reliable evaluation tools available. Integrated AssessmentModeling has proved to be a suitable solution for the description of air pollution systems due to the fact that it considers each of the involved stages: emissions, atmospheric chemistry, dispersion, environmental impacts and abatement potentials. Some integrated assessment models are available at European scale that cover each of the before mentioned stages, being the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model the most recognized and widely-used within a European policy-making context. However, addressing air quality at the national/regional scale under an integrated assessment framework is desirable. To do so, European-scale models do not provide enough spatial resolution or detail in their ancillary data sources, mainly emission inventories and local meteorology patterns as well as associated results. The objective of this dissertation is to present the developments in the design and application of an Integrated Assessment Model especially conceived for Spain and Portugal. The Atmospheric Evaluation and Research Integrated system for Spain (AERIS) is able to quantify concentration profiles for several pollutants (NO2, SO2, PM10, PM2.5, NH3 and O3), the atmospheric deposition of sulfur and nitrogen species and their related impacts on crops, vegetation, ecosystems and health as a response to percentual changes in the emissions of relevant sectors. The current version of AERIS considers 20 emission sectors, either corresponding to individual SNAP sectors or macrosectors, whose contribution to air quality levels, deposition and impacts have been modeled through the use of source-receptor matrices (SRMs). Thesematrices are proportionality constants that relate emission changes with different air quality indicators and have been derived through statistical parameterizations of an air qualitymodeling system (AQM). For the concrete case of AERIS, its parent AQM relied on the WRF model for meteorology and on the CMAQ model for atmospheric chemical processes. The quantification of atmospheric deposition, impacts on ecosystems, crops, vegetation and human health has been carried out following the standard methodologies established under international negotiation frameworks such as CLRTAP. The programming structure isMATLAB ® -based, allowing great compatibility with typical software such as Microsoft Excel ® or ArcGIS ® Regarding air quality levels, AERIS is able to provide mean annual andmean monthly concentration values, as well as the indicators established in Directive 2008/50/EC, namely the 19th highest hourly value for NO2, the 25th highest daily value and the 4th highest hourly value for SO2, the 36th highest daily value of PM10, the 26th highest maximum 8-hour daily value, SOMO35 and AOT40 for O3. Regarding atmospheric deposition, the annual accumulated deposition per unit of area of species of oxidized and reduced nitrogen as well as sulfur can be estimated. When relating the before mentioned values with specific characteristics of the modeling domain such as land use, forest and crops covers, population counts and epidemiological studies, a wide array of impacts can be calculated. When focusing on impacts on ecosystems and soils, AERIS is able to estimate critical load exceedances and accumulated average exceedances for nitrogen and sulfur species. Damage on forests is estimated as an exceedance of established critical levels of NO2 and SO2. Additionally, AERIS is able to quantify damage caused by O3 and SO2 on grapes, maize, potato, rice, sunflower, tobacco, tomato, watermelon and wheat. Impacts on human health aremodeled as a consequence of exposure to PM2.5 and O3 and quantified as losses in statistical life expectancy and premature mortality indicators. The accuracy of the IAM has been tested by statistically contrasting the obtained results with those yielded by the conventional AQM, exhibiting in most cases a good agreement level. Due to the fact that impacts cannot be directly produced by the AQM, a credibility analysis was carried out for the outputs of AERIS for a given emission scenario by comparing them through probability tests against the performance of GAINS for the same scenario. This analysis revealed a good correspondence in the mean behavior and the probabilistic distributions of the datasets. The verification tests that were applied to AERIS suggest that results are consistent enough to be credited as reasonable and realistic. In conclusion, the main reason thatmotivated the creation of this model was to produce a reliable yet simple screening tool that would provide decision and policy making support for different “what-if” scenarios at a low computing cost. The interaction with politicians and other stakeholders dictated that reconciling the complexity of modeling with the conciseness of policies should be reflected by AERIS in both, its conceptual and computational structures. It should be noted however, that AERIS has been created under a policy-driven framework and by no means should be considered as a substitute of the ordinary AQM.

Semantic Support for Computational Land-Use Modelling

Postprint

Java software platform for the development of advanced robotic virtual laboratories

This article presents an interactive Java software platform which enables any user to easily create advanced virtual laboratories (VLs) for Robotics. This novel tool provides both support for developing applications with full 3D interactive graphical interface and a complete functional framework for modelling and simulation of arbitrary serial-link manipulators. In addition, its software architecture contains a high number of functionalities included as high-level tools, with the advantage of allowing any user to easily develop complex interactive robotic simulations with a minimum of programming. In order to show the features of the platform, the article describes, step-by-step, the implementation methodology of a complete VL for Robotics education using the presented approach. Finally, some educational results about the experience of implementing this approach are reported.

Modelling a biomass supply chain through discrete-event simulation

The organizational structure of the companies in the biomass energy sector, regarding the supply chain management services, can be greatly improved through the use of software decision support tools. These tools should be able to provide real-time alternative scenarios when deviations from the initial production plans are observed. To make this possible it is necessary to have representative production chain process models where several scenarios and solutions can be evaluated accurately. Due to its nature, this type of process is more adequately represented by means of event-based models. In particular, this work presents the modelling of a typical biomass production chain using the computing platform SIMEVENTS. Throughout the article details about the conceptual model, as well as simulation results, are provided

Forest-based supply chain modelling using the SimPy simulation framework

Proper management of supply chains is fundamental in the overall system performance of forestbased activities. Usually, efficient management techniques rely on a decision support software, which needs to be able to generate fast and effective outputs from the set of possibilities. In order to do this, it is necessary to provide accurate models representative of the dynamic interactions of systems. Due to forest-based supply chains’ nature, event-based models are more suited to describe their behaviours. This work proposes the modelling and simulation of a forestbased supply chain, in particular the biomass supply chain, through the SimPy framework. This Python based tool allows the modelling of discrete-event systems using operations such as events, processes and resources. The developed model was used to access the impact of changes in the daily working plan in three situations. First, as a control case, the deterministic behaviour was simulated. As a second approach, a machine delay was introduced and its implications in the plan accomplishment were analysed. Finally, to better address real operating conditions, stochastic behaviours of processing and driving times were simulated. The obtained results validate the SimPy simulation environment as a framework for modelling supply chains in general and for the biomass problem in particular.

Modelling inpatient length of stay by a hierarchical mixture regression via the EM algorithm

The modelling of inpatient length of stay (LOS) has important implications in health care studies. Finite mixture distributions are usually used to model the heterogeneous LOS distribution, due to a certain proportion of patients sustaining-a longer stay. However, the morbidity data are collected from hospitals, observations clustered within the same hospital are often correlated. The generalized linear mixed model approach is adopted to accommodate the inherent correlation via unobservable random effects. An EM algorithm is developed to obtain residual maximum quasi-likelihood estimation. The proposed hierarchical mixture regression approach enables the identification and assessment of factors influencing the long-stay proportion and the LOS for the long-stay patient subgroup. A neonatal LOS data set is used for illustration, (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Applying ontologies to business and systems modelling techniques and perspectives: Lessons learned

For many years in the area of business systems analysis and design, practitioners and researchers alike have been searching for some comprehensive basis on which to evaluate, compare, and engineer techniques that are promoted for use in the modelling of systems' requirements. To date, while many frameworks, factors, and facets have been forthcoming, none appear to be based on a sound theory. In light of this dilemma, over the last 10 years, attention has been devoted by researchers to the use of ontology to provide some theoretical basis for the advancement of the business systems modelling discipline. This paper outlines how we have used a particular ontology for this purpose over the last five years. In particular we have learned that the understandability and the applicability of the selected ontology must be clear for IS professionals, the results of any ontological evaluation must be tempered by economic efficiency considerations of the stakeholders involved, and ontologies may have to be focused for the business purpose and type of user involved in the modelling situation.

Numerical simulation of stochastic ordinary differential equations in biomathematical modelling

In this work we discuss the effects of white and coloured noise perturbations on the parameters of a mathematical model of bacteriophage infection introduced by Beretta and Kuang in [Math. Biosc. 149 (1998) 57]. We numerically simulate the strong solutions of the resulting systems of stochastic ordinary differential equations (SDEs), with respect to the global error, by means of numerical methods of both Euler-Taylor expansion and stochastic Runge-Kutta type. (C) 2003 IMACS. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modelling of different measures for improving removal in a stormwater pond

The effect of retrofitting an existing pond on removal efficiency and hydraulic performance was modelled using the commercial software Mike21 and compartmental modelling. The Mike21 model had previously been calibrated on the studied pond. Installation of baffles, the addition of culverts under a causeway and removal of an existing island were all studied as possible improvement measures in the pond. The subsequent effect on hydraulic performance and removal of. suspended solids was then evaluated. Copper, cadmium, BOD, nitrogen and phosphorus removal were,also investigated for that specific improvement measure showing the best results. Outcomes of this study reveal that all measures increase the removal efficiency of suspended solids. The hydraulic efficiency is improved for all cases, except for the case where the island is removed. Compartmental modelling was also used to evaluate hydraulic performance and facilitated a better understanding of the way each of the different measures affected the flow pattern and performance. It was concluded that the installation of baffles is the best of the studied measures resulting in a reduction in the annual load on the receiving lake by approximately 8,000 kg of suspended solids (25% reduction of the annual load), 2 kg of copper (10% reduction of the annual load) and 600 kg of BOD (10% reduction of the annual load).

Modelling of two-stage anaerobic digestion using the IWA Anaerobic Digestion Model No. 1 (ADM1)

The aim of the study presented was to implement a process model to simulate the dynamic behaviour of a pilot-scale process for anaerobic two-stage digestion of sewage sludge. The model implemented was initiated to support experimental investigations of the anaerobic two-stage digestion process. The model concept implemented in the simulation software package MATLAB(TM)/Simulink(R) is a derivative of the IWA Anaerobic Digestion Model No.1 (ADM1) that has been developed by the IWA task group for mathematical modelling of anaerobic processes. In the present study the original model concept has been adapted and applied to replicate a two-stage digestion process. Testing procedures, including balance checks and 'benchmarking' tests were carried out to verify the accuracy of the implementation. These combined measures ensured a faultless model implementation without numerical inconsistencies. Parameters for both, the thermophilic and the mesophilic process stage, have been estimated successfully using data from lab-scale experiments described in literature. Due to the high number of parameters in the structured model, it was necessary to develop a customised procedure that limited the range of parameters to be estimated. The accuracy of the optimised parameter sets has been assessed against experimental data from pilot-scale experiments. Under these conditions, the model predicted reasonably well the dynamic behaviour of a two-stage digestion process in pilot scale. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.