Developing a predictive contractor satisfaction model (CoSMo) for construction projects

Over the last few decades, construction project performance has been evaluated due to the increase of delays, cost overruns and quality failures. Growing numbers of disputes, inharmonious working environments, conflict, blame cultures, and mismatches of objectives among project teams have been found to be contributory factors to poor project performance. Performance measurement (PM) approaches have been developed to overcome these issues, however, the comprehensiveness of PM as an overall approach is still criticised in terms of the iron triangle; namely time, cost, and quality. PM has primarily focused on objective measures, however, continuous improvement requires the inclusion of subjective measures, particularly contractor satisfaction (Co-S). It is challenging to deal with the two different groups of large and small-medium contractor satisfaction as to date, Co-S has not been extensively defined, primarily in developing countries such as Malaysia. Therefore, a Co-S model is developed in this research which aims to fulfil the current needs in the construction industry by integrating performance measures to address large and small-medium contractor perceptions. The positivist paradigm used in the research was adhered to by reviewing relevant literature and evaluating expert discussions on the research topic. It yielded a basis for the contractor satisfaction model (CoSMo) development which consists of three elements: contractor satisfaction (Co-S) dimensions; contributory factors and characteristics (project and participant). Using valid questionnaire results from 136 contractors in Malaysia lead to the prediction of several key factors of contractor satisfaction and to an examination of the relationships between elements. The relationships were examined through a series of sequential statistical analyses, namely correlation, one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA), t-tests and multiple regression analysis (MRA). Forward and backward MRAs were used to develop Co-S mathematical models. Sixteen Co-S models were developed for both large and small-medium contractors. These determined that the large contractor Malaysian Co-S was most affected by the conciseness of project scope and quality of the project brief. Contrastingly, Co-S for small-medium contractors was strongly affected by the efficiency of risk control in a project. The results of the research provide empirical evidence in support of the notion that appropriate communication systems in projects negatively contributes to large Co-S with respect to cost and profitability. The uniqueness of several Co-S predictors was also identified through a series of analyses on small-medium contractors. These contractors appear to be less satisfied than large contractors when participants lack effectiveness in timely authoritative decision-making and communication between project team members. Interestingly, the empirical results show that effective project health and safety measures are influencing factors in satisfying both large and small-medium contractors. The perspectives of large and small-medium contractors in respect to the performance of the entire project development were derived from the Co-S models. These were statistically validated and refined before a new Co-S model was developed. Developing such a unique model has the potential to increase project value and benefit all project participants. It is important to improve participant collaboration as it leads to better project performance. This study may encourage key project participants; such as client, consultant, subcontractor and supplier; to increase their attention to contractor needs in the development of a project. Recommendations for future research include investigating other participants‟ perspectives on CoSMo and the impact of the implementation of CoSMo in a project, since this study is focused purely on the contractor perspective.

In-memory business process management

In-memory databases have become a mainstay of enterprise computing offering significant performance and scalability boosts for online analytical and (to a lesser extent) transactional processing as well as improved prospects for integration across different applications through an efficient shared database layer. Significant research and development has been undertaken over several years concerning data management considerations of in-memory databases. However, limited insights are available on the impacts of applications and their supportive middleware platforms and how they need to evolve to fully function through, and leverage, in-memory database capabilities. This paper provides a first, comprehensive exposition into how in-memory databases impact Business Pro- cess Management, as a mission-critical and exemplary model-driven integration and orchestration middleware. Through it, we argue that in-memory databases will render some prevalent uses of legacy BPM middleware obsolete, but also open up exciting possibilities for tighter application integration, better process automation performance and some entirely new BPM capabilities such as process-based application customization. To validate the feasibility of an in-memory BPM, we develop a surprisingly simple BPM runtime embedded into SAP HANA and providing for BPMN-based process automation capabilities.

Quasiuniversal Transient Behavior of a Nonequilibrium Mott Insulator Driven by an Electric Field

We use a self-consistent strong-coupling expansion for the self-energy (perturbation theory in the hopping) to describe the nonequilibrium dynamics of strongly correlated lattice fermions. We study the three-dimensional homogeneous Fermi-Hubbard model driven by an external electric field showing that the damping of the ensuing Bloch oscillations depends on the direction of the field and that for a broad range of field strengths a long-lived transient prethermalized state emerges. This long-lived transient regime implies that thermal equilibrium may be out of reach of the time scales accessible in present cold atom experiments but shows that an interesting new quasiuniversal transient state exists in nonequilibrium governed by a thermalized kinetic energy but not a thermalized potential energy. In addition, when the field strength is equal in magnitude to the interaction between atoms, the system undergoes a rapid thermalization, characterized by a different quasiuniversal behavior of the current and spectral function for different values of the hopping. DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.109.260402

Markets and microstructure

This document contains three papers examining the microstructure of financial interaction in development and market settings. I first examine the industrial organization of financial exchanges, specifically limit order markets. In this section, I perform a case study of Google stock surrounding a surprising earnings announcement in the 3rd quarter of 2009, uncovering parameters that describe information flows and liquidity provision. I then explore the disbursement process for community-driven development projects. This section is game theoretic in nature, using a novel three-player ultimatum structure. I finally develop econometric tools to simulate equilibrium and identify equilibrium models in limit order markets.

In chapter two, I estimate an equilibrium model using limit order data, finding parameters that describe information and liquidity preferences for trading. As a case study, I estimate the model for Google stock surrounding an unexpected good-news earnings announcement in the 3rd quarter of 2009. I find a substantial decrease in asymmetric information prior to the earnings announcement. I also simulate counterfactual dealer markets and find empirical evidence that limit order markets perform more efficiently than do their dealer market counterparts.

In chapter three, I examine Community-Driven Development. Community-Driven Development is considered a tool empowering communities to develop their own aid projects. While evidence has been mixed as to the effectiveness of CDD in achieving disbursement to intended beneficiaries, the literature maintains that local elites generally take control of most programs. I present a three player ultimatum game which describes a potential decentralized aid procurement process. Players successively split a dollar in aid money, and the final player--the targeted community member--decides between whistle blowing or not. Despite the elite capture present in my model, I find conditions under which money reaches targeted recipients. My results describe a perverse possibility in the decentralized aid process which could make detection of elite capture more difficult than previously considered. These processes may reconcile recent empirical work claiming effectiveness of the decentralized aid process with case studies which claim otherwise.

In chapter four, I develop in more depth the empirical and computational means to estimate model parameters in the case study in chapter two. I describe the liquidity supplier problem and equilibrium among those suppliers. I then outline the analytical forms for computing certainty-equivalent utilities for the informed trader. Following this, I describe a recursive algorithm which facilitates computing equilibrium in supply curves. Finally, I outline implementation of the Method of Simulated Moments in this context, focusing on Indirect Inference and formulating the pseudo model.

Development of a new modelling framework to estimate the C footprint from Basque dairy farms

19 p.

A structured modelling approach to simulating dynamic behaviours in complex organisations

This article reports a case study application of a systematic approach to modelling complex organisations, centred on simulation modelling (SM). The approach leads to populated instances of complementary model types, in ways that systematically capture, validate and facilitate various uses of organisational understandings, knowledge and data normally distributed amongst multiple knowledge holders. The model-driven approach to decision making enables improved manufacturing responsiveness. Literature on modelling technologies relevant to manufacturing systems organisation design and change is presented, as is literature on production planning and control. This provides a rationale for the development of a new modelling methodology which combines the use of enterprise, causal loop and SM. Subsequently, this article describes how in the case of a specific manufacturing enterprise the combined modelling techniques have informed the choice of alternative production planning and control policies. An example enterprise model of a capacitor manufacturing company is illustrated as derivative causal-loop models that structure and enable the design and use of a general purpose simulation model.

Enhanced integrated modelling approach to reconfiguring manufacturing enterprises

Dynamism and uncertainty are real challenges for present day manufacturing enterprises (MEs). Reasons include: an increasing demand for customisation, reduced time to market, shortened product life cycles and globalisation. MEs can reduce competitive pressure by becoming reconfigurable and change-capable. However, modern manufacturing philosophies, including agile and lean, must complement the application of reconfigurable manufacturing paradigms. Choosing and applying the best philosophies and techniques is very difficult as most MEs deploy complex and unique configurations of processes and resource systems, and seek economies of scope and scale in respect of changing and distinctive product flows. It follows that systematic methods of achieving model driven reconfiguration and interoperation of component based manufacturing systems are required to design, engineer and change future MEs. This thesis, titled Enhanced Integrated Modelling Approach to Reconfiguring Manufacturing Enterprises , introduces the development and prototyping a model-driven environment for the design, engineering, optimisation and control of the reconfiguration of MEs with an embedded capability to handle various types of change. The thesis describes a novel systematic approach, namely enhanced integrated modelling approach (EIMA), in which coherent sets of integrated models are created that facilitates the engineering of MEs especially their production planning and control (PPC) systems. The developed environment supports the engineering of common types of strategic, tactical and operational processes found in many MEs. The EIMA is centred on the ISO standardised CIMOSA process modelling approach. Early study led to the development of simulation models during which various CIMOSA shortcomings were observed, especially in its support for aspects of ME dynamism. A need was raised to structure and create semantically enriched models hence forming an enhanced integrated modelling environment. The thesis also presents three industrial case examples: (1) Ford Motor Company; (2) Bradgate Furniture Manufacturing Company; and (3) ACM Bearings Company. In order to understand the system prior to realisation of any PPC strategy, multiple process segments of any target organisation need to be modelled. Coherent multi-perspective case study models are presented that have facilitated process reengineering and associated resource system configuration. Such models have a capability to enable PPC decision making processes in support of the reconfiguration of MEs. During these case studies, capabilities of a number of software tools were exploited such as Arena®, Simul8®, Plant Simulation®, MS Visio®, and MS Excel®. Case study results demonstrated effectiveness of the concepts related to the EIMA. The research has resulted in new contributions to knowledge in terms of new understandings, concepts and methods in following ways: (1) a structured model driven integrated approach to the design, optimisation and control of future reconfiguration of MEs. The EIMA is an enriched and generic process modelling approach with capability to represent both static and dynamic aspects of an ME; and (2) example application cases showing benefits in terms of reduction in lead time, cost and resource load and in terms of improved responsiveness of processes and resource systems with a special focus on PPC; (3) identification and industrial application of a new key performance indicator (KPI) known as P3C the measuring and monitoring of which can aid in enhancing reconfigurability and responsiveness of MEs; and (4) an enriched modelling concept framework (E-MUNE) to capture requirements of static and dynamic aspects of MEs where the conceptual framework has the capability to be extended and modified according to the requirements. The thesis outlines key areas outlining a need for future research into integrated modelling approaches, interoperation and updating mechanisms of partial models in support of the reconfiguration of MEs.

Sublimation of snow from confierous forests in a climate model

Essery, R L H, Pomeroy, J W, Parvianen, J & Storck, P, Sublimation of snow from confierous forests in a climate model. Journal of Climate 16, pp 1855-1864 (2003).

Can population-level variation in early childhood development be measured in a manner that supports service planning and intervention?

Background: The Early Development Instrument (EDI) is a population-level measure of five developmental domains at school-entry age. The overall aim of this thesis was to explore the potential of the EDI as an indicator of early development in Ireland. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted in 47 primary schools in 2011 using the EDI and a linked parental questionnaire. EDI (teacher completed) scores were calculated for 1,344 children in their first year of full-time education. Those scoring in the lowest 10% of the sample population in one or more domains were deemed to be 'developmentally vulnerable'. Scores were correlated with contextual data from the parental questionnaire and with indicators of area and school-level deprivation. Rasch analysis was used to determine the validity of the EDI. Results: Over one quarter (27.5%) of all children in the study were developmentally vulnerable. Individual characteristics associated with increased risk of vulnerability were being male; under 5 years old; and having English as a second language. Adjusted for these demographics, low birth weight, poor parent/child interaction and mother’s lower level of education showed the most significant odds ratios for developmental vulnerability. Vulnerability did not follow the area-level deprivation gradient as measured by a composite index of material deprivation. Children considered by the teacher to be in need of assessment also had lower scores, which were not significantly different from those of children with a clinical diagnosis of special needs. all domains showed at least reasonable fit to the Rasch model supporting the validity of the instrument. However, there was a need for further refinement of the instrument in the Irish context. Conclusion: This thesis provides a unique snapshot of early development in Ireland. The EDI and linked parental questionnaires are promising indicators of the extent, distribution and determinants of developmental vulnerability.

Systematic Usage of Embedded Modelling Languages in Automated Model Transformation Chains

Annotation of programs using embedded Domain-Specific Languages (embedded DSLs), such as the program annotation facility for the Java programming language, is a well-known practice in computer science. In this paper we argue for and propose a specialized approach for the usage of embedded Domain-Specific Modelling Languages (embedded DSMLs) in Model-Driven Engineering (MDE) processes that in particular supports automated many-step model transformation chains. It can happen that information defined at some point, using an embedded DSML, is not required in the next immediate transformation step, but in a later one. We propose a new approach of model annotation enabling flexible many-step transformation chains. The approach utilizes a combination of embedded DSMLs, trace models and a megamodel. We demonstrate our approach based on an example MDE process and an industrial case study.

Taking as Giving, Appropriation as Access: Transfers of Land Development Rights and China’s Recent Experiments

Economic development at both the domestic and global levels is associated with increasing tensions which are inextricably linked to the meaning and allocation of property rights, which has a great impact on appropriation of resources and may lead to different paths of development. “Taking”-- the appropriation of private land for public needs -- is a typical example that exhibits those tensions, posing a challenge to the conventional conception of property as individualistic and exclusive rights of possession, use, and disposition and to the associated neoliberal model of development. Should the individual landowner be left to bear the cost of a regulatory intervention which endures to the wider benefit of the whole community? How to mitigate the tensions between private ownership and public regulation? If we take the liberal concept of property, then private property seems to be in constant conflict with public interests and wider social concerns. Meanwhile, community, situating between the state and the individuals, and community’s relationship to development rights, have not provoked enough discussion. The paper explores the different ways land development rights might be seen both in Western, essentially common law systems, and in China, especially now and in view of two case studies. An empirical example in Wugang, China reveals the importance of integrating the “community lens” proposed by Roger Cotterrell into studies of the transfer of land development rights. Reading through the community lens, taking could be giving and appropriation could also be access. This approach provides a new perspective to re-evaluate the relationship between legal appropriation and development.

Pressions et stratégies dans la formation professionnelle universitaire : le cas de la formation des directions d’établissement scolaire du Québec (1988-1989 à 2008-2009)

La multiplication des formations professionnelles universitaires (FPU) a poussé plusieurs chercheurs à s’intéresser aux caractéristiques de ces formations, leur perméabilité à une multitude de pressions étant l’une des plus fréquemment relevées. Ainsi, les unités responsables de FPU sont confrontées à des pressions diverses et souvent contradictoires. Si les écrits scientifiques sur les FPU témoignent bien de cette réalité, ceux-ci nous informent moins bien de la manière dont les unités responsables de ce type de formation répondent à ces pressions. Cette thèse a donc fait appel à plusieurs concepts de l’approche institutionnelle issue de la sociologie des organisations pour analyser l’évolution récente de la FPU destinée aux directions d’établissement scolaire (DES) du Québec, un champ qui a connu d’importantes transformations au cours des vingt-cinq dernières années. Construite sur une étude de cas interprétative dite à « unités enchâssées » (Yin, 2003), cette thèse s’est intéressée à l’évolution de cette formation dans deux unités universitaires francophones : le Département d’administration et fondements de l’éducation de l’Université de Montréal et le Département de gestion de l’éducation et de la formation de l’Université de Sherbrooke. Couvrant la période allant des années universitaires 1988-1989 à 2008-2009, elle repose sur une analyse du discours produit par les deux unités sélectionnées, et, dans une moindre mesure, par les organisations qui composent le champ organisationnel de la formation des DES au Québec. Pour ce faire, trois corpus documentaires distincts ont été assemblés et une série d’entrevues (dix par unités) ont été réalisées auprès d’informateurs-clés (doyens, directeurs de département/section, responsables de formation). Les résultats montrent comment ces unités tendent à se rendre isomorphes à leur environnement, et comment cela se fait en réponse à des pressions institutionnelles et de compétition diverses émanant d’un champ organisationnel en pleine transformation. En fait, poussée par des changements plus profonds touchant l’administration scolaire, cette transformation amène un champ organisationnel plus structuré, où les attentes concernant la FPU destinée aux DES sont plus explicites. Cela n’est pas sans conséquence sur l’évolution de la formation dans les deux unités. En effet, celle-ci connaît des changements importants, dont plusieurs convergent autour d’une logique de professionnalisation, d’un archétype spécifique de formation (un continuum de formation de 2e cycle, au cœur duquel se trouve un diplôme de deuxième cycle) et d’outils conséquents (conditions d’admission et populations étudiantes élargies; flexibilité dans la structure du programme et professionnalisation des activités; équipes enseignantes plus diversifiées). Les deux unités n’apparaissent cependant pas impuissantes devant ces pressions. Les résultats témoignent d’un certain niveau d’agence des deux unités, qui déploient un éventail de stratégies en réaction à ces pressions. Ces stratégies évoluent au cours de la période observée et visent surtout à gérer la situation de « pluralisme institutionnel » à laquelle elles sont confrontées, notamment entre les pressions externes de nature plus professionnalisantes, et les pressions intraorganisationnelles de nature plus académisantes. Ainsi, plusieurs des stratégies et tactiques composant la typologie d’Oliver (1991) ont été observées, les stratégies de compromis et de manipulation occupant, dans les deux unités, une place de plus en plus importante au gré de l’évolution du champ. La mise en œuvre de ces stratégies vise surtout à maintenir la légitimité de leur offre de formation devant des pressions plurielles et parfois contradictoires. Les résultats montrent aussi que la nature de l’entrepreneuriat institutionnel en place détermine en grande partie les stratégies qu’elles déploient. Cet « entrepreneuriat » est au cœur de l’évolution de la formation. Cependant, les résultats montrent aussi comment celui-ci est en partie contraint ou, a contrario, stimulé par les choix historiques qui ont été faits par les unités et leur université, et par l’empreinte et les dépendances de sentier qui en découlent. Ces résultats apportent un éclairage « institutionnaliste » sur la manière dont deux unités universitaires ont réagi, à une période donnée, aux pressions diverses provenant de leur environnement. Ils brossent un portrait complexe et nuancé qui vient à la fois (1) approfondir notre compréhension de cette spécificité des FPU, (2) approfondir notre compréhension de l’évolution récente de la FPU destinée aux DES québécoises, et (3) confirmer la puissance d’analyse de plusieurs concepts tirés de l’approche institutionnelle.

Une approche heuristique pour l’apprentissage de transformations de modèles complexes à partir d’exemples

L’ingénierie dirigée par les modèles (IDM) est un paradigme d’ingénierie du logiciel bien établi, qui préconise l’utilisation de modèles comme artéfacts de premier ordre dans les activités de développement et de maintenance du logiciel. La manipulation de plusieurs modèles durant le cycle de vie du logiciel motive l’usage de transformations de modèles (TM) afin d’automatiser les opérations de génération et de mise à jour des modèles lorsque cela est possible. L’écriture de transformations de modèles demeure cependant une tâche ardue, qui requiert à la fois beaucoup de connaissances et d’efforts, remettant ainsi en question les avantages apportés par l’IDM. Afin de faire face à cette problématique, de nombreux travaux de recherche se sont intéressés à l’automatisation des TM. L’apprentissage de transformations de modèles par l’exemple (TMPE) constitue, à cet égard, une approche prometteuse. La TMPE a pour objectif d’apprendre des programmes de transformation de modèles à partir d’un ensemble de paires de modèles sources et cibles fournis en guise d’exemples. Dans ce travail, nous proposons un processus d’apprentissage de transformations de modèles par l’exemple. Ce dernier vise à apprendre des transformations de modèles complexes en s’attaquant à trois exigences constatées, à savoir, l’exploration du contexte dans le modèle source, la vérification de valeurs d’attributs sources et la dérivation d’attributs cibles complexes. Nous validons notre approche de manière expérimentale sur 7 cas de transformations de modèles. Trois des sept transformations apprises permettent d’obtenir des modèles cibles parfaits. De plus, une précision et un rappel supérieurs à 90% sont enregistrés au niveau des modèles cibles obtenus par les quatre transformations restantes.