Validation of and comparison between a semidistributed rainfall-runoff hydrological model (PREVAH) and a spatially distributed snow-evolution model (SnowModel) for snow cover prediction in mountain ecosystems

Snow cover is an important control in mountain environments and a shift of the snow-free period triggered by climate warming can strongly impact ecosystem dynamics. Changing snow patterns can have severe effects on alpine plant distribution and diversity. It thus becomes urgent to provide spatially explicit assessments of snow cover changes that can be incorporated into correlative or empirical species distribution models (SDMs). Here, we provide for the first time a with a lower overestimation comparison of two physically based snow distribution models (PREVAH and SnowModel) to produce snow cover maps (SCMs) at a fine spatial resolution in a mountain landscape in Austria. SCMs have been evaluated with SPOT-HRVIR images and predictions of snow water equivalent from the two models with ground measurements. Finally, SCMs of the two models have been compared under a climate warming scenario for the end of the century. The predictive performances of PREVAH and SnowModel were similar when validated with the SPOT images. However, the tendency to overestimate snow cover was slightly lower with SnowModel during the accumulation period, whereas it was lower with PREVAH during the melting period. The rate of true positives during the melting period was two times higher on average with SnowModel with a lower overestimation of snow water equivalent. Our results allow for recommending the use of SnowModel in SDMs because it better captures persisting snow patches at the end of the snow season, which is important when modelling the response of species to long-lasting snow cover and evaluating whether they might survive under climate change.

Construction and validation of a scoring system for the selection of high-quality data in a Spanish population primary care database (SIDIAP)

Background Computerised databases of primary care clinical records are widely used for epidemiological research. In Catalonia, the InformationSystem for the Development of Research in Primary Care (SIDIAP) aims to promote the development of research based on high-quality validated data from primary care electronic medical records. Objective The purpose of this study is to create and validate a scoring system (Registry Quality Score, RQS) that will enable all primary care practices (PCPs) to be selected as providers of researchusable data based on the completeness of their registers. Methods Diseases that were likely to be representative of common diagnoses seen in primary care were selected for RQS calculations. The observed/ expected cases ratio was calculated for each disease. Once we had obtained an estimated value for this ratio for each of the selected conditions we added up the ratios calculated for each condition to obtain a final RQS. Rate comparisons between observed and published prevalences of diseases not included in the RQS calculations (atrial fibrillation, diabetes, obesity, schizophrenia, stroke, urinary incontinenceand Crohn’s disease) were used to set the RQS cutoff which will enable researchers to select PCPs with research-usable data. Results Apart from Crohn’s disease, all prevalences were the same as those published from the RQS fourth quintile (60th percentile) onwards. This RQS cut-off provided a total population of 1 936 443 (39.6% of the total SIDIAP population). Conclusions SIDIAP is highly representative of the population of Catalonia in terms of geographical, age and sex distributions. We report the usefulness of rate comparison as a valid method to establish research-usable data within primary care electronic medical records

Mechanistic population Models in Biology: Model Derivation and Application

In general, models of ecological systems can be broadly categorized as ’top-down’ or ’bottom-up’ models, based on the hierarchical level that the model processes are formulated on. The structure of a top-down, also known as phenomenological, population model can be interpreted in terms of population characteristics, but it typically lacks an interpretation on a more basic level. In contrast, bottom-up, also known as mechanistic, population models are derived from assumptions and processes on a more basic level, which allows interpretation of the model parameters in terms of individual behavior. Both approaches, phenomenological and mechanistic modelling, can have their advantages and disadvantages in different situations. However, mechanistically derived models might be better at capturing the properties of the system at hand, and thus give more accurate predictions. In particular, when models are used for evolutionary studies, mechanistic models are more appropriate, since natural selection takes place on the individual level, and in mechanistic models the direct connection between model parameters and individual properties has already been established. The purpose of this thesis is twofold. Firstly, a systematical way to derive mechanistic discrete-time population models is presented. The derivation is based on combining explicitly modelled, continuous processes on the individual level within a reproductive period with a discrete-time maturation process between reproductive periods. Secondly, as an example of how evolutionary studies can be carried out in mechanistic models, the evolution of the timing of reproduction is investigated. Thus, these two lines of research, derivation of mechanistic population models and evolutionary studies, are complementary to each other.

Construction and application of a portable microcontrolled turbidimeter for the in situ determination of sulfate

This study reports on the construction of a turbidimeter employing light emitting diodes as radiation source at a wavelength of 405 nm, a photodiode as detector, a temperature sensor and a microcontroller used for data acquisition and processing. The turbidimeter was applied to determine sulfate concentrations in natural water employing barium chloride as reagent. Potential interferences and recovery studies were performed and an interference of 3.5 % and a recovery between 97.8 and 108 % were estimated. The analytical performance of in situ turbidimeter for the determination of sulfate was evaluated and compared with two commercial spectrophotometers and a good agreement was obtained.

The Dark Side of International Business? Stakeholder Approach to Human Trafficking in Finnish Construction and Service Sectors

Human trafficking is not a new phenomenon. It has existed in various forms for ages around the world. Some researchers have even compared it to slavery, calling it the modern form of slavery in the 21st century. This study is particularly interested in the role of work-related human trafficking in Finnish business. In order for something to be called work-related human trafficking, the concepts of forced labour and human trafficking have to overlap. From the economic point of view, human trafficking is governed by the laws of supply and demand. In many countries the global pressure on cutting costs has created two trends: the increased supply of migrant workers and the deregulation of labour markets. These competitive pressures can have an adverse impact on the conditions of employment and, in the worst cases, can lead to forced labour and trafficking. In fact, trafficking has become one of the most profitable illicit industries worldwide, generating tremendous profits due to its low costs and huge profits. Therefore, it is important to investigate the phenomenon from the business point of view. This study is a qualitative research conducted by using theme interviews as a research approach. Altogether 13 interviews have been conducted and some secondary data has been used in order to find out what the role of human trafficking is in Finnish business. The special sectors investigated are the Finnish construction and service sectors. The theory framework used in this study follows the stakeholder approach. The relevant stakeholder groups for this study are: ‘institutions and authorities’, ‘law enforcement’, ‘management’ and ‘employees – potential victims’ of trafficking. With the help of these stakeholder groups, a holistic picture of the phenomenon is formed. It can be concluded that the role of human trafficking is complicated but it does exist in Finnish business. It appears in low-cost business sectors where the demand for cheap labour is high. Thus, often the victims are foreigners who do not know the culture or the Finnish conditions of employment. Especially smaller Finnish companies are at risk of getting involved in human trafficking or related exploitation cases since monitoring is much more scarce in these firms than in larger companies. The risk of human trafficking and exploitation is also higher at the bottom of the complicated subcontracting chains or when using foreign recruitment agencies. Thus, the study believes that active and intensive collaboration between the company’s different stakeholder groups is needed in order to prevent work-related human trafficking from flourishing in Finland.

Construction and validation of a surgical skills assessment tool for general surgery residency program

Objective: To develop and validate an instrument for measuring the acquisition of technical skills in conducting operations of increasing difficulty for use in General Surgery Residency (GSR) programs. Methods: we built a surgical skills assessment tool containing 11 operations in increasing levels of difficulty. For instrument validation we used the face validaity method. Through an electronic survey tool (Survey MonKey(r)) we sent a questionnaire to Full and Emeritus members of the Brazilian College of Surgeons - CBC - all bearers of the CBC Specialist Title. Results: Of the 307 questionnaires sent we received 100 responses. For the analysis of the data collected we used the Cronbach's alpha test. We observed that, in general, the overall alpha presented with values near or greater than 0.70, meaning good consistency to assess their points of interest. Conclusion: The evaluation instrument built was validated and can be used as a method of assessment of technical skill acquisition in the General Surgery Residency programs in Brazil.

Application and development of numerical methods for the modelling of innovative gas cooled fission reactors

Innovative gas cooled reactors, such as the pebble bed reactor (PBR) and the gas cooled fast reactor (GFR) offer higher efficiency and new application areas for nuclear energy. Numerical methods were applied and developed to analyse the specific features of these reactor types with fully three dimensional calculation models. In the first part of this thesis, discrete element method (DEM) was used for a physically realistic modelling of the packing of fuel pebbles in PBR geometries and methods were developed for utilising the DEM results in subsequent reactor physics and thermal-hydraulics calculations. In the second part, the flow and heat transfer for a single gas cooled fuel rod of a GFR were investigated with computational fluid dynamics (CFD) methods. An in-house DEM implementation was validated and used for packing simulations, in which the effect of several parameters on the resulting average packing density was investigated. The restitution coefficient was found out to have the most significant effect. The results can be utilised in further work to obtain a pebble bed with a specific packing density. The packing structures of selected pebble beds were also analysed in detail and local variations in the packing density were observed, which should be taken into account especially in the reactor core thermal-hydraulic analyses. Two open source DEM codes were used to produce stochastic pebble bed configurations to add realism and improve the accuracy of criticality calculations performed with the Monte Carlo reactor physics code Serpent. Russian ASTRA criticality experiments were calculated. Pebble beds corresponding to the experimental specifications within measurement uncertainties were produced in DEM simulations and successfully exported into the subsequent reactor physics analysis. With the developed approach, two typical issues in Monte Carlo reactor physics calculations of pebble bed geometries were avoided. A novel method was developed and implemented as a MATLAB code to calculate porosities in the cells of a CFD calculation mesh constructed over a pebble bed obtained from DEM simulations. The code was further developed to distribute power and temperature data accurately between discrete based reactor physics and continuum based thermal-hydraulics models to enable coupled reactor core calculations. The developed method was also found useful for analysing sphere packings in general. CFD calculations were performed to investigate the pressure losses and heat transfer in three dimensional air cooled smooth and rib roughened rod geometries, housed inside a hexagonal flow channel representing a sub-channel of a single fuel rod of a GFR. The CFD geometry represented the test section of the L-STAR experimental facility at Karlsruhe Institute of Technology and the calculation results were compared to the corresponding experimental results. Knowledge was gained of the adequacy of various turbulence models and of the modelling requirements and issues related to the specific application. The obtained pressure loss results were in a relatively good agreement with the experimental data. Heat transfer in the smooth rod geometry was somewhat under predicted, which can partly be explained by unaccounted heat losses and uncertainties. In the rib roughened geometry heat transfer was severely under predicted by the used realisable k − epsilon turbulence model. An additional calculation with a v2 − f turbulence model showed significant improvement in the heat transfer results, which is most likely due to the better performance of the model in separated flow problems. Further investigations are suggested before using CFD to make conclusions of the heat transfer performance of rib roughened GFR fuel rod geometries. It is suggested that the viewpoints of numerical modelling are included in the planning of experiments to ease the challenging model construction and simulations and to avoid introducing additional sources of uncertainties. To facilitate the use of advanced calculation approaches, multi-physical aspects in experiments should also be considered and documented in a reasonable detail.

Comparison of the homeostasis model assessment and quantitative insulin sensitivity check index with data from forearm metabolic studies for the in vivo assessment of insulin sensitivity

The present study was designed to compare the homeostasis model assessment (HOMA) and quantitative insulin sensitivity check index (QUICKI) with data from forearm metabolic studies of healthy individuals and of subjects in various pathological states. Fifty-five healthy individuals and 112 patients in various pathological states, including type 2 diabetes mellitus, essential hypertension and others, were studied after an overnight fast and for 3 h after ingestion of 75 g of glucose, by HOMA, QUICKI and the forearm technique to estimate muscle uptake of glucose combined with indirect calorimetry (oxidative and non-oxidative glucose metabolism). The patients showed increased HOMA (1.88 ± 0.14 vs 1.13 ± 0.10 pmol/l x mmol/l) and insulin/glucose (I/G) index (1.058.9 ± 340.9 vs 518.6 ± 70.7 pmol/l x (mg/100 ml forearm)-1), and decreased QUICKI (0.36 ± 0.004 vs 0.39 ± 0.006 (µU/ml + mg/dl)-1) compared with the healthy individuals. Analysis of the data for the group as a whole (patients and healthy individuals) showed that the estimate of insulin resistance by HOMA was correlated with data obtained in the forearm metabolic studies (glucose uptake: r = -0.16, P = 0.04; non-oxidative glucose metabolism: r = -0.20. P = 0.01, and I/G index: r = 0.17, P = 0.03). The comparison of QUICKI with data of the forearm metabolic studies showed significant correlation between QUICKI and non-oxidative glucose metabolism (r = 0.17, P = 0.03) or I/G index (r = -0.37, P < 0.0001). The HOMA and QUICKI are good estimates of insulin sensitivity as data derived from forearm metabolic studies involving direct measurements of insulin action on muscle glucose metabolism.

Construction and growth properties of bovine herpesvirus type 5 recombinants defective in the glycoprotein E or thymidine kinase gene or both

Bovine herpesvirus type 5 (BoHV-5) is an important pathogen of cattle in South America. We describe here the construction and characterization of deletion mutants defective in the glycoprotein E (gE) or thymidine kinase (TK) gene or both (gE/TK) from a highly neurovirulent and well-characterized Brazilian BoHV-5 strain (SV507/99). A gE-deleted recombinant virus (BoHV-5 gE∆) was first generated in which the entire gE open reading frame was replaced with a chimeric green fluorescent protein gene. A TK-deleted recombinant virus (BoHV-5 TK∆) was then generated in which most of the TK open reading frame sequences were deleted and replaced with a chimeric β-galactosidase gene. Subsequently, using the BoHV-5 gE∆ virus as backbone, a double gene-deleted (TK plus gE) BoHV-5 recombinant (BoHV-5 gE/TK∆) was generated. The deletion of the gE and TK genes was confirmed by immunoblotting and PCR, respectively. In Madin Darby bovine kidney (MDBK) cells, the mutants lacking gE (BoHV-5 gE∆) and TK + gE (BoHV-5 gE/TK∆) produced small plaques while the TK-deleted BoHV-5 produced wild-type-sized plaques. The growth kinetics and virus yields in MDBK cells for all three recombinants (BoHV-5 gE∆, BoHV-5 TK∆ and BoHV-5 gE/TK∆) were similar to those of the parental virus. It is our belief that the dual gene-deleted recombinant (BoHV-5 gE/TK∆) produced on the background of a highly neurovirulent Brazilian BoHV-5 strain may have potential application in a vaccine against BoHV-5.

Study of the volatile compounds from plum (Prunus domestica L. cv. Horvin) and estimation of their contribution to the fruit aroma

Simultaneous Distillation-Extraction (SDE) and headspace-solid phase microextraction (HS-SPME) combined with GC-FID and GC-MS were used to analyze volatile compounds from plum (Prunus domestica L. cv. Horvin) and to estimate the most odor-active compounds by application of the Odor Activity Values (OAV). The analyses led to the identification of 148 components, including 58 esters, 23 terpenoids, 14 aldehydes, 11 alcohols, 10 ketones, 9 alkanes, 7 acids, 4 lactones, 3 phenols, and other 9 compounds of different structures. According to the results of SDE-GC-MS, SPME-GC-MS and OAV, ethyl 2-methylbutanoate, hexyl acetate, (E)-2-nonenal, ethyl butanoate, (E)-2-decenal, ethyl hexanoate, nonanal, decanal, (E)-β-ionone, Γ-dodecalactone, (Z)-3-hexenyl acetate, pentyl acetate, linalool, Γ-decalactone, butyl acetate, limonene, propyl acetate, Δ-decalactone, diethyl sulfide, (E)-2-hexenyl acetate, ethyl heptanoate, (Z)-3-hexenol, (Z)-3-hexenyl hexanoate, eugenol, (E)-2-hexenal, ethyl pentanoate, hexyl 2-methylbutanoate, isopentyl hexanoate, 1-hexanol, Γ-nonalactone, myrcene, octyl acetate, phenylacetaldehyde, 1-butanol, isobutyl acetate, (E)-2-heptenal, octadecanal, and nerol are characteristic odor active compounds in fresh plums since they showed concentrations far above their odor thresholds.

Letter of estimate sent to S.D. Woodruff for the total cost of construction and equipment of the extension of the line to Port Colborne

Letter of estimate sent to S.D. Woodruff for the total cost of construction and equipment of the extension of the line to Port Colborne [this is unsigned]. There is an envelope with this letter that suggests that it is from Mr. Shanly, Mar. 12, 1857.

Agreement to undertake construction and complete the road in accordance with the engineer or the Port Robinson and Thorold macadamized road

Agreement to undertake construction and complete the road in accordance with the engineer or the Port Robinson and Thorold macadamized road. This is signed by John Williams, Aug. 11, 1855.