Variable Speed Limit Strategies to Reduce the Impacts of Traffic Flow Breakdown at Recurrent Freeway Bottlenecks

Variable Speed Limit (VSL) strategies identify and disseminate dynamic speed limits that are determined to be appropriate based on prevailing traffic conditions, road surface conditions, and weather conditions. This dissertation develops and evaluates a shockwave-based VSL system that uses a heuristic switching logic-based controller with specified thresholds of prevailing traffic flow conditions. The system aims to improve operations and mobility at critical bottlenecks. Before traffic breakdown occurrence, the proposed VSL’s goal is to prevent or postpone breakdown by decreasing the inflow and achieving uniform distribution in speed and flow. After breakdown occurrence, the VSL system aims to dampen traffic congestion by reducing the inflow traffic to the congested area and increasing the bottleneck capacity by deactivating the VSL at the head of the congested area. The shockwave-based VSL system pushes the VSL location upstream as the congested area propagates upstream. In addition to testing the system using infrastructure detector-based data, this dissertation investigates the use of Connected Vehicle trajectory data as input to the shockwave-based VSL system performance. Since the field Connected Vehicle data are not available, as part of this research, Vehicle-to-Infrastructure communication is modeled in the microscopic simulation to obtain individual vehicle trajectories. In this system, wavelet transform is used to analyze aggregated individual vehicles’ speed data to determine the locations of congestion. The currently recommended calibration procedures of simulation models are generally based on the capacity, volume and system-performance values and do not specifically examine traffic breakdown characteristics. However, since the proposed VSL strategies are countermeasures to the impacts of breakdown conditions, considering breakdown characteristics in the calibration procedure is important to have a reliable assessment. Several enhancements were proposed in this study to account for the breakdown characteristics at bottleneck locations in the calibration process. In this dissertation, performance of shockwave-based VSL is compared to VSL systems with different fixed VSL message sign locations utilizing the calibrated microscopic model. The results show that shockwave-based VSL outperforms fixed-location VSL systems, and it can considerably decrease the maximum back of queue and duration of breakdown while increasing the average speed during breakdown.

Design Strategies for an Artificial Neural Network Based Algorithm for Automatic Incident Detection on Major Arterial Streets

Traffic incidents are non-recurring events that can cause a temporary reduction in roadway capacity. They have been recognized as a major contributor to traffic congestion on our national highway systems. To alleviate their impacts on capacity, automatic incident detection (AID) has been applied as an incident management strategy to reduce the total incident duration. AID relies on an algorithm to identify the occurrence of incidents by analyzing real-time traffic data collected from surveillance detectors. Significant research has been performed to develop AID algorithms for incident detection on freeways; however, similar research on major arterial streets remains largely at the initial stage of development and testing. This dissertation research aims to identify design strategies for the deployment of an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based AID algorithm for major arterial streets. A section of the US-1 corridor in Miami-Dade County, Florida was coded in the CORSIM microscopic simulation model to generate data for both model calibration and validation. To better capture the relationship between the traffic data and the corresponding incident status, Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) and data normalization were applied to the simulated data. Multiple ANN models were then developed for different detector configurations, historical data usage, and the selection of traffic flow parameters. To assess the performance of different design alternatives, the model outputs were compared based on both detection rate (DR) and false alarm rate (FAR). The results show that the best models were able to achieve a high DR of between 90% and 95%, a mean time to detect (MTTD) of 55-85 seconds, and a FAR below 4%. The results also show that a detector configuration including only the mid-block and upstream detectors performs almost as well as one that also includes a downstream detector. In addition, DWT was found to be able to improve model performance, and the use of historical data from previous time cycles improved the detection rate. Speed was found to have the most significant impact on the detection rate, while volume was found to contribute the least. The results from this research provide useful insights on the design of AID for arterial street applications.

Latent Space and Social Psychological Models of Diffusion

The problem of social diffusion has animated sociological thinking on topics ranging from the spread of an idea, an innovation or a disease, to the foundations of collective behavior and political polarization. While network diffusion has been a productive metaphor, the reality of diffusion processes is often muddier. Ideas and innovations diffuse differently from diseases, but, with a few exceptions, the diffusion of ideas and innovations has been modeled under the same assumptions as the diffusion of disease. In this dissertation, I develop two new diffusion models for "socially meaningful" contagions that address two of the most significant problems with current diffusion models: (1) that contagions can only spread along observed ties, and (2) that contagions do not change as they spread between people. I augment insights from these statistical and simulation models with an analysis of an empirical case of diffusion - the use of enterprise collaboration software in a large technology company. I focus the empirical study on when people abandon innovations, a crucial, and understudied aspect of the diffusion of innovations. Using timestamped posts, I analyze when people abandon software to a high degree of detail.

To address the first problem, I suggest a latent space diffusion model. Rather than treating ties as stable conduits for information, the latent space diffusion model treats ties as random draws from an underlying social space, and simulates diffusion over the social space. Theoretically, the social space model integrates both actor ties and attributes simultaneously in a single social plane, while incorporating schemas into diffusion processes gives an explicit form to the reciprocal influences that cognition and social environment have on each other. Practically, the latent space diffusion model produces statistically consistent diffusion estimates where using the network alone does not, and the diffusion with schemas model shows that introducing some cognitive processing into diffusion processes changes the rate and ultimate distribution of the spreading information. To address the second problem, I suggest a diffusion model with schemas. Rather than treating information as though it is spread without changes, the schema diffusion model allows people to modify information they receive to fit an underlying mental model of the information before they pass the information to others. Combining the latent space models with a schema notion for actors improves our models for social diffusion both theoretically and practically.

The empirical case study focuses on how the changing value of an innovation, introduced by the innovations' network externalities, influences when people abandon the innovation. In it, I find that people are least likely to abandon an innovation when other people in their neighborhood currently use the software as well. The effect is particularly pronounced for supervisors' current use and number of supervisory team members who currently use the software. This case study not only points to an important process in the diffusion of innovation, but also suggests a new approach -- computerized collaboration systems -- to collecting and analyzing data on organizational processes.

Multi-Agent Simulation and Management Practices

Intelligent agents offer a new and exciting way of understanding the world of work. Agent-Based Simulation (ABS), one way of using intelligent agents, carries great potential for progressing our understanding of management practices and how they link to retail performance. We have developed simulation models based on research by a multi-disciplinary team of economists, work psychologists and computer scientists. We will discuss our experiences of implementing these concepts working with a well-known retail department store. There is no doubt that management practices are linked to the performance of an organisation (Reynolds et al., 2005; Wall & Wood, 2005). Best practices have been developed, but when it comes down to the actual application of these guidelines considerable ambiguity remains regarding their effectiveness within particular contexts (Siebers et al., forthcoming a). Most Operational Research (OR) methods can only be used as analysis tools once management practices have been implemented. Often they are not very useful for giving answers to speculative ‘what-if’ questions, particularly when one is interested in the development of the system over time rather than just the state of the system at a certain point in time. Simulation can be used to analyse the operation of dynamic and stochastic systems. ABS is particularly useful when complex interactions between system entities exist, such as autonomous decision making or negotiation. In an ABS model the researcher explicitly describes the decision process of simulated actors at the micro level. Structures emerge at the macro level as a result of the actions of the agents and their interactions with other agents and the environment. We will show how ABS experiments can deal with testing and optimising management practices such as training, empowerment or teamwork. Hence, questions such as “will staff setting their own break times improve performance?” can be investigated.

Investigating output accuracy for a discrete event simulation model and an agent based simulation model

In this paper, we investigate output accuracy for a Discrete Event Simulation (DES) model and Agent Based Simulation (ABS) model. The purpose of this investigation is to find out which of these simulation techniques is the best one for modelling human reactive behaviour in the retail sector. In order to study the output accuracy in both models, we have carried out a validation experiment in which we compared the results from our simulation models to the performance of a real system. Our experiment was carried out using a large UK department store as a case study. We had to determine an efficient implementation of management policy in the store’s fitting room using DES and ABS. Overall, we have found that both simulation models were a good representation of the real system when modelling human reactive behaviour.

Modelling reactive and proactive behaviour in simulation

This research investigated the simulation model behaviour of a traditional and combined discrete event as well as agent based simulation models when modelling human reactive and proactive behaviour in human centric complex systems. A departmental store was chosen as human centric complex case study where the operation system of a fitting room in WomensWear department was investigated. We have looked at ways to determine the efficiency of new management policies for the fitting room operation through simulating the reactive and proactive behaviour of staff towards customers. Once development of the simulation models and their verification had been done, we carried out a validation experiment in the form of a sensitivity analysis. Subsequently, we executed a statistical analysis where the mixed reactive and proactive behaviour experimental results were compared with some reactive experimental results from previously published works. Generally, this case study discovered that simple proactive individual behaviour could be modelled in both simulation models. In addition, we found the traditional discrete event model performed similar in the simulation model output compared to the combined discrete event and agent based simulation when modelling similar human behaviour.

A resonant based Marx generator

The configuration proposed in this paper aims to generate high voltage for pulsed power applications. The main idea is to charge two groups of capacitors in parallel through an inductor and take the advantage of resonant phenomena in charging each capacitor up to a double input voltage level. In each resonant half a cycle, one of those capacitor groups are charged, and finally the charged capacitors will be connected together in series and the summation of the capacitor voltages can be appeared at the output of the topology. This topology can be considered as a modified Marx generator which works based on the resonant concept. Simulation models of this converter have been investigated in Matlab/SIMULINK platform and the attained results fully satisfy the proper operation of the converter.

Visualisation modelling in 3D of an alluvial aquifer system at a valley-wide scale to understand groundwater status : Lockyer, QLD

Visualisation provides a method to efficiently convey and understand the complex nature and processes of groundwater systems. This technique has been applied to the Lockyer Valley to aid in comprehending the current condition of the system. The Lockyer Valley in southeast Queensland hosts intensive irrigated agriculture sourcing groundwater from alluvial aquifers. The valley is around 3000 km2 in area and the alluvial deposits are typically 1-3 km wide and to 20-35 m deep in the main channels, reducing in size in subcatchments. The configuration of the alluvium is of a series of elongate “fingers”. In this roughly circular valley recharge to the alluvial aquifers is largely from seasonal storm events, on the surrounding ranges. The ranges are overlain by basaltic aquifers of Tertiary age, which overall are quite transmissive. Both runoff from these ranges and infiltration into the basalts provided ephemeral flow to the streams of the valley. Throughout the valley there are over 5,000 bores extracting alluvial groundwater, plus lesser numbers extracting from underlying sandstone bedrock. Although there are approximately 2500 monitoring bores, the only regularly monitored area is the formally declared management zone in the lower one third. This zone has a calibrated Modflow model (Durick and Bleakly, 2000); a broader valley Modflow model was developed in 2002 (KBR), but did not have extensive extraction data for detailed calibration. Another Modflow model focused on a central area river confluence (Wilson, 2005) with some local production data and pumping test results. A recent subcatchment simulation model incorporates a network of bores with short-period automated hydrographic measurements (Dvoracek and Cox, 2008). The above simulation models were all based on conceptual hydrogeological models of differing scale and detail.

Sustainable urban infrastructure management : integration of urban computer modelling

Purpose - This paper seeks to examine the complex relationships between urban planning, infrastructure management, sustainable urban development, and to illustrate why there is an urgent need for local governments to develop a robust planning support system which integrates with advance urban computer modelling tools to facilitate better infrastructure management and improve knowledge sharing between the community, urban planners, engineers and decision makers. Design/methodology/approach - The methods used in this paper includes literature review and practical project case observations. Originality/value - This paper provides an insight of how the Brisbane's planning support system established by Brisbane City Council has significantly improved the effectiveness of urban planning, infrastructure management and community engagement through better knowledge management processes. Practical implications - This paper presents a practical framework for setting up a functional planning support system within local government. The integration of the Brisbane Urban Growth model, Virtual Brisbane and the Brisbane Economic Activity Monitoring (BEAM) database have proven initially successful to provide a dynamic platform to assist elected officials, planners and engineers to understand the limitations of the local environment, its urban systems and the planning implications on a city. With the Brisbane's planning support system, planners and decision makers are able to provide better planning outcomes, policy and infrastructure that adequately address the local needs and achieve sustainable spatial forms.

How automated speed enforcement may reduce travel time variability and result in travel time savings : the case study of the loop 101 speed enforcement program in Scottsdale, Arizona

The city of Scottsdale Arizona implemented the first fixed photo Speed Enforcement camera demonstration Program (SEP) on a US freeway in 2006. A comprehensive before-and-after analysis of the impact of the SEP on safety revealed significant reductions in crash frequency and severity, which indicates that the SEP is a promising countermeasure for improving safety. However, there is often a trade off between safety and mobility when safety investments are considered. As a result, identifying safety countermeasures that both improve safety and reduce Travel Time Variability (TTV) is a desirable goal for traffic safety engineers. This paper reports on the analysis of the mobility impacts of the SEP by simulating the traffic network with and without the SEP, calibrated to real world conditions. The simulation results show that the SEP decreased the TTV: the risk of unreliable travel was at least 23% higher in the ‘without SEP’ scenario than in the ‘with SEP’ scenario. In addition, the total Travel Time Savings (TTS) from the SEP was estimated to be at least ‘569 vehicle-hours/year.’ Consequently, the SEP is an efficient countermeasure not only for reducing crashes but also for improving mobility through TTS and reduced TTV.

Calibration and operational analysis of variable speed limits for high flow condition

Variable Speed Limits (VSL) is a control tool of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) which can enhance traffic safety and which has the potential to contribute to traffic efficiency. This study presents the results of a calibration and operational analysis of a candidate VSL algorithm for high flow conditions on an urban motorway of Queensland, Australia. The analysis was done using a framework consisting of a microscopic simulation model combined with runtime API and a proposed efficiency index. The operational analysis includes impacts on speed-flow curve, travel time, speed deviation, fuel consumption and emission.

Investigation of methods for increasing the energy efficiency on unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVS)

In recent years, development of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) has become a significant growing segment of the global aviation industry. These vehicles are developed with the intention of operating in regions where the presence of onboard human pilots is either too risky or unnecessary. Their popularity with both the military and civilian sectors have seen the use of UAVs in a diverse range of applications, from reconnaissance and surveillance tasks for the military, to civilian uses such as aid relief and monitoring tasks. Efficient energy utilisation on an UAV is essential to its functioning, often to achieve the operational goals of range, endurance and other specific mission requirements. Due to the limitations of the space available and the mass budget on the UAV, it is often a delicate balance between the onboard energy available (i.e. fuel) and achieving the operational goals. This thesis presents an investigation of methods for increasing the energy efficiency on UAVs. One method is via the development of a Mission Waypoint Optimisation (MWO) procedure for a small fixed-wing UAV, focusing on improving the onboard fuel economy. MWO deals with a pre-specified set of waypoints by modifying the given waypoints within certain limits to achieve its optimisation objectives of minimising/maximising specific parameters. A simulation model of a UAV was developed in the MATLAB Simulink environment, utilising the AeroSim Blockset and the in-built Aerosonde UAV block and its parameters. This simulation model was separately integrated with a multi-objective Evolutionary Algorithm (MOEA) optimiser and a Sequential Quadratic Programming (SQP) solver to perform single-objective and multi-objective optimisation procedures of a set of real-world waypoints in order to minimise the onboard fuel consumption. The results of both procedures show potential in reducing fuel consumption on a UAV in a ight mission. Additionally, a parallel Hybrid-Electric Propulsion System (HEPS) on a small fixedwing UAV incorporating an Ideal Operating Line (IOL) control strategy was developed. An IOL analysis of an Aerosonde engine was performed, and the most efficient (i.e. provides greatest torque output at the least fuel consumption) points of operation for this engine was determined. Simulation models of the components in a HEPS were designed and constructed in the MATLAB Simulink environment. It was demonstrated through simulation that an UAV with the current HEPS configuration was capable of achieving a fuel saving of 6.5%, compared to the ICE-only configuration. These components form the basis for the development of a complete simulation model of a Hybrid-Electric UAV (HEUAV).

Evaluating responses to land degradation mitigation measures in Southern Italy

The main factors affecting environmental sensitivity to degradation are soil, vegetation, climate and management, through either their intrinsic characteristics or by their interaction on the landscape. Different levels of degradation risks may be observed in response to particular combinations of the aforementioned factors. For instance, the combination of inappropriate management practices and intrinsically weak soil conditions will result in a severe degradation of the environment, while the combination of the same type of management with better soil conditions may lead to negligible degradation.The aim of this study was to identify factors and their impact on land degradation processes in three areas of the Basilicata region (southern Italy) using a procedure that couples environmental indices, GIS and crop-soil simulation models. Areas prone to desertification were first identified using the Environmental Sensitive Areas (ESA) procedure. An analysis for identifying the weight that each of the contributing factor (climate, soil, vegetation, management) had on the ESA was carried out using GIS techniques. The SALUS model was successfully executed to identify the management practices that could lead to better soil conditions to enhance land use sustainability. The best management practices were found to be those that minimized soil disturbance and increased soil organic carbon. Two alternative scenarios with improved soil quality and subsequently improving soil water holding capacity were used as mitigation measures. The ESA were recalculated and the effects of the mitigation measures suggested by the model were assessed. The new ESA showed a significant reduction on land degradation.

Information provision and network performance represented by Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram

The existence of the Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram (MFD), which relates network space-mean density and flow, has been shown in urban networks under homogeneous traffic conditions. Since the MFD represents the area-wide network traffic performances, studies on perimeter control strategies and an area traffic state estimation utilizing the MFD concept has been reported. The key requirements for the well-defined MFD is the homogeneity of the area wide traffic condition, which is not universally expected in real world. For the practical application of the MFD concept, several researchers have identified the influencing factors for network homogeneity. However, they did not explicitly take drivers’ behaviour under real time information provision into account, which has a significant impact on the shape of the MFD. This research aims to demonstrate the impact of drivers’ route choice behaviour on network performance by employing the MFD as a measurement. A microscopic simulation is chosen as an experimental platform. By changing the ratio of en-route informed drivers and pre-trip informed drivers as well as by taking different route choice parameters, various scenarios are simulated in order to investigate how drivers’ adaptation to the traffic congestion influences the network performance and the MFD shape. This study confirmed and addressed the impact of information provision on the MFD shape and highlighted the significance of the route choice parameter setting as an influencing factor in the MFD analysis.

Local on-ramp queue management strategy with mainline speed recovery

Ramp metering is an effective motorway control tool beneficial for mainline traffic, but the long on-ramp queues created interfere with surface traffic profoundly. This study deals with the conflict between mainline benefits and thecosts of on-ramp and surface traffic. A novel local on-ramp queue management strategy with mainline speed recovery is proposed. Microscopic simulation is used to test the new strategy and compare it with other strategies. Simulation results reveal that the ramp metering with queue management strategy provides a good balance between the mainline and on-ramp performances.