Reliability analysis and economic equipment replacement appraisal for substation and sub-transmission systems with explicit inclusion of non-repairable failures

The modern society has come to expect the electrical energy on demand, while many of the facilities in power systems are aging beyond repair and maintenance. The risk of failure is increasing with the aging equipments and can pose serious consequences for continuity of electricity supply. As the equipments used in high voltage power networks are very expensive, economically it may not be feasible to purchase and store spares in a warehouse for extended periods of time. On the other hand, there is normally a significant time before receiving equipment once it is ordered. This situation has created a considerable interest in the evaluation and application of probability methods for aging plant and provisions of spares in bulk supply networks, and can be of particular importance for substations. Quantitative adequacy assessment of substation and sub-transmission power systems is generally done using a contingency enumeration approach which includes the evaluation of contingencies, classification of the contingencies based on selected failure criteria. The problem is very complex because of the need to include detailed modelling and operation of substation and sub-transmission equipment using network flow evaluation and to consider multiple levels of component failures. In this thesis a new model associated with aging equipment is developed to combine the standard tools of random failures, as well as specific model for aging failures. This technique is applied in this thesis to include and examine the impact of aging equipments on system reliability of bulk supply loads and consumers in distribution network for defined range of planning years. The power system risk indices depend on many factors such as the actual physical network configuration and operation, aging conditions of the equipment, and the relevant constraints. The impact and importance of equipment reliability on power system risk indices in a network with aging facilities contains valuable information for utilities to better understand network performance and the weak links in the system. In this thesis, algorithms are developed to measure the contribution of individual equipment to the power system risk indices, as part of the novel risk analysis tool. A new cost worth approach was developed in this thesis that can make an early decision in planning for replacement activities concerning non-repairable aging components, in order to maintain a system reliability performance which economically is acceptable. The concepts, techniques and procedures developed in this thesis are illustrated numerically using published test systems. It is believed that the methods and approaches presented, substantially improve the accuracy of risk predictions by explicit consideration of the effect of equipment entering a period of increased risk of a non-repairable failure.

A micro-simulation of airport passengers with advanced traits

An approach for modeling passenger flows in airport terminals by a set of devised advanced traits of passengers is proposed. Advanced traits take into account a passenger’s cognitive preferences which would be the underlying motivations of route-choice decisions. Basic traits are the status of passengers such as travel class. Although the activities of passengers are normally regarded as stochastic and sometimes unpredictable, we advise that real scenarios of passenger flows are basically feasible to be compared with virtual simulations in terms of tactical route-choice decision-making by individual personals. Inside airport terminals, passengers are goal-directed and not only use standard processing check points but also behave discretionary activities during the course. In this paper, we integrated discretionary activities in the study to fulfill full-range of passenger flows. In the model passengers are built as intelligent agents who possess a bunch of initial basic traits and then can be categorized into ten distinguish groups in terms of route-choice preferences by inferring the results of advanced traits. An experiment is executed to demonstrate the capability to facilitate predicting passenger flows.

10,000 steps Rockhampton : (1) building a whole community approach to increasing levels of physical activity

10,000 Steps Rockhampton is a multi-strategy health promotion program which aims to develop sustainable community-based strategies to increase physical activity.The central coordinating focus of the project is the use of pedometers to raise awareness of and provide motivation for physical activity, around the theme of '10,000 steps/day - Every step counts.' To date, five key strategies have been implemented: (1) a media-based awareness raising campaign; (2) promotion of physical activity by health professionals; (3) improving social support for physical activity through group-based programs; (4) working with local council to improve environmental support for physical activity, and; (5) establishment of a ‘micro-grants’ fund to which community groups could apply for assistance with small, innovative physical activity enhancing projects. Strategies were introduced on a rolling basis beginning in February 2002 with 'layering' of interventions designed to address the multi-level individual social and environmental determinants of physical activity. The project was quasi-experimental in design, involving collection of baseline and two year follow-up data from community based surveys in Rockhampton and in a matched regional Queensland town. In August 2001,the baseline CATI survey (N=1281)found that 47.9% of men and 33.0% of women were meeting the national guidelines for physical activity. In August 2002, a smaller survey (N=400) found an increase in activity levels among women (39.7% active) but not in men (48.5%). Data from the two year follow up survey, to be conducted in August 2003, will be presented, with discussion of the major successes and challenges of this landmark physical activity intervention. Acknowledgement: This project is supported by a grant from Health Promotion Queensland.

10,000 steps Rockhampton: a whole community approach to increasing levels of physical activity

10,000 Steps Rockhampton is a multi-strategy health promotion program which aims to develop sustainable community-based strategies to increase physical activity.The central coordinating focus of the project is the use of pedometers to raise awareness of and provide motivation for physical activity, around the theme of '10,000 steps/day - Every step counts.' To date, five key strategies have been implemented: (1) a media-based awareness raising campaign; (2) promotion of physical activity by health professionals; (3) improving social support for physical activity through group-based programs; (4) working with local council to improve environmental support for physical activity, and; (5) establishment of a ‘micro-grants’ fund to which community groups could apply for assistance with small, innovative physical activity enhancing projects. Strategies were introduced on a rolling basis beginning in February 2002 with 'layering' of interventions designed to address the multi-level individual social and environmental determinants of physical activity. The project was quasi-experimental in design, involving collection of baseline and two year follow-up data from community based surveys in Rockhampton and in a matched regional Queensland town. In August 2001,the baseline CATI survey (N=1281)found that 47.9% of men and 33.0% of women were meeting the national guidelines for physical activity. In August 2002, a smaller survey (N=400) found an increase in activity levels among women (39.7% active) but not in men (48.5%). Data from the two year follow up survey, to be conducted in August 2003, will be presented, with discussion of the major successes and challenges of this landmark physical activity intervention. Acknowledgement: This project is supported by a grant from Health Promotion Queensland

Micro foundations of strategic capability development : a case study within the auto industry

The importance of firms’ adaptation processes is prominent in today’s business environment which is characterised by ever changing customers, technologies, and competition. Ever since Schumpeter’s (1942) classic work strategic renewal has been found crucial for firms’ adaptation to environmental change. The role of strategic renewal in firms’ adaptation processes includes development of capabilities for the purpose of sustainability of competitive advantage against environmental changes.

In vitro micro propagation of Nicotiana benthamiana via axillary shoots

Axillary shoots of Nicotiana benthamiana were regenerated from nodal explants in two weeks using MS media supplemented with the cytokinin, kinetin (0.5 mg/L), and the auxin, indole-3-butyric acid (IBA) (0.1 mg/L). Ninety two percent of shoots were 2.1-20 mm tall, a size ideal for root induction. After transfer to hormone-free MS they readily produced roots within seven days, with phenotypically normal, fully developed plants being obtained within four weeks. Leaf chlorosis due to iron deficiency was observed in plants over time, however, this was overcome by doubling the concentration of inorganic iron. This rapid micro-propagation system is particularly useful for the in vitro mass production of N. benthamiana plants for various biotechnological applications.

Micro stepping of Shape Memory Alloy based Poly Phase motor

In literature we find broadly two types of shape memory alloy based motors namely limited rotation motor and unlimited rotation motor. The unlimited rotation type SMA based motor reported in literature uses SMA springs for actuation. An attempt has been made in this paper to develop an unlimited rotation type balanced poly phase motor based on SMA wire in series with a spring in each phase. By isolating SMA actuation and spring action we are able achieve a constant force by the SMA wire through out its range of operation. The Poly phase motor can be used in stepping mode for generating incremental motion and servo mode for generating continuous motion. A method of achieving servo motion by micro stepping is presented. Micro stepping consists of controlling single-phase temperature with a position feedback. The motor has been modeled with a new approach to the SMA wire Hysterysis model. Motor is simulated for different responses and the results are compared with the experimental data.

Nuclear Energy Levels of ^31S and ^33Cl

The reaction ³²S(³He, α) ³¹S has been used to locate 42 levels in ³¹S. For 11 of the first 17 levels ℓ_n-values have been determined. The first 6 excited states of ³¹S have been studied by applying the particle-gamma correlation method of Litherland and Ferguson (their Method II) to the reaction ³²S(³He, αγ) ³¹S. The resulting spins and parities are: E_X, J^π = 1.25 MeV, 3/2⁺; 2.23 MeV, 5/2⁺; 3.08 MeV, 1/2⁺; 3.29 MeV, 5/2⁺, 3/2⁺; 3.35 MeV, 7/2, 3/2; 3.44 MeV, 3/2⁺. Mixing and branching ratios have also been determined. The ground state Q-value for the reaction ³²S(³He, α)³¹S has been measured to be 5.538 ± 0.006 MeV. Analysis of the spectra of the reaction ³²S(³He, α)³³Cl which were obtained as a by-product of the spectra of the reaction ³²S(³He, α) ³¹S located levels in ³³Cl at the following excitation energies: 0, 810 ± 9, (1978 ± 14), 2351 ± 9, 2686 ± 8, 2848 ± 9 (a known doublet), 2980 ± 9, and 4119 ± 10 keV. The 2.0 MeV level was only weakly populated, and to confirm its existence the reaction ³⁶Ar(p, α)³³Cl has been studied. In this reaction the 2.0 MeV level was strongly populated and the measured excitation energy was 1999 ± 20 keV. The experimental results for ³¹S and ³³Cl are compared with their analogs and with nuclear model predictions.

A fully-nonlocal energy-based formulation and high-performance realization of the quasicontinuum method

The quasicontinuum (QC) method was introduced to coarse-grain crystalline atomic ensembles in order to bridge the scales from individual atoms to the micro- and mesoscales. Though many QC formulations have been proposed with varying characteristics and capabilities, a crucial cornerstone of all QC techniques is the concept of summation rules, which attempt to efficiently approximate the total Hamiltonian of a crystalline atomic ensemble by a weighted sum over a small subset of atoms. In this work we propose a novel, fully-nonlocal, energy-based formulation of the QC method with support for legacy and new summation rules through a general energy-sampling scheme. Our formulation does not conceptually differentiate between atomistic and coarse-grained regions and thus allows for seamless bridging without domain-coupling interfaces. Within this structure, we introduce a new class of summation rules which leverage the affine kinematics of this QC formulation to most accurately integrate thermodynamic quantities of interest. By comparing this new class of summation rules to commonly-employed rules through analysis of energy and spurious force errors, we find that the new rules produce no residual or spurious force artifacts in the large-element limit under arbitrary affine deformation, while allowing us to seamlessly bridge to full atomistics. We verify that the new summation rules exhibit significantly smaller force artifacts and energy approximation errors than all comparable previous summation rules through a comprehensive suite of examples with spatially non-uniform QC discretizations in two and three dimensions. Due to the unique structure of these summation rules, we also use the new formulation to study scenarios with large regions of free surface, a class of problems previously out of reach of the QC method. Lastly, we present the key components of a high-performance, distributed-memory realization of the new method, including a novel algorithm for supporting unparalleled levels of deformation. Overall, this new formulation and implementation allows us to efficiently perform simulations containing an unprecedented number of degrees of freedom with low approximation error.

Nuclear reactions leading to energy levels of Ar37 and K37

In view of recent interest in the Cl³⁷ (ʋ solar’^e-)Ar³⁷ reaction cross section, information on some aspects of mass 37 nuclei has been obtained using the K³⁹ (d, ∝) Ar³⁷ and Cl³⁵ (He³, p) Ar³⁷ reactions. Ar³⁷ levels have been found at 0, 1.41, 1.62, 2.22, 2.50, 2.80, 3.17, 3.27, 3.53, 3.61, 3.71, (3.75), (3.90), 3.94, 4.02, (4.21), 4.28, 4.32, 4.40, 4.45, 4.58, 4.63, 4.74, 4.89, 4.98, 5.05, 5.10, 5.13, 5.21, 5.35, 5.41, 5.44, 5.54, 5.58, 5.67, 5.77, and 5.85 MeV (the underlined values correspond to previously tabulated levels). The nuclear temperature calculated from the Ar³⁷ level density is 1.4 MeV. Angular distributions of the lowest six levels with the K³⁹ (d, ∝) Ar³⁷ reaction at E_d = 10 MeV indicate a dominant direct interaction mechanism and the inapplicability of the 2I + 1 rule of the statistical model. Comparison of the spectra obtained with the K³⁹ (d, ∝) Ar³⁷ and Cl³⁵ (He³, p) Ar³⁷ reactions leads to the suggestion that the 5.13-MeV level is the T = 3/2 Cl³⁷ ground state analog. The ground state Q-value of the Ca⁴⁰ (p, ∝) K³⁷ reaction has been measured: -5179 ± 9 keV. This value implies a K³⁷ mass excess of -24804 ± 10 keV. Description of a NMR magnetometer and a sixteen-detector array used in conjunction with a 61-cm double-focusing magnetic spectrometer are included in appendices.

Population structure and variance effective size of red snapper (Lutjanus campechanus) in the northern Gulf of Mexico*

We assayed allelic variation at 19 nuclear-encoded microsatellites among 1622 Gulf red snapper (Lutjanus campechanus) sampled from the 1995 and 1997 cohorts at each of three offshore localities in the northern Gulf of Mexico (Gulf). Localities represented western, central, and eastern subregions within the northern Gulf. Number of alleles per microsatellite per sample ranged from four to 23, and gene diversity ranged from 0.170 to 0.917. Tests of conformity to Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium expectations and of genotypic equilibrium between pairs of micro-satellites were generally nonsignificant following Bonferroni correction. Significant genic or genotypic heterogeneity (or both) among samples was detected at four microsatellites and over all microsatellites. Levels of divergence among samples were low (FST ≤0.001). Pairwise exact tests revealed that six of seven “significant” comparisons involved temporal rather than spatial heterogeneity. Contemporaneous or variance effective size (NeV) was estimated from the temporal variance in allele frequencies by using a maximum-likelihood method. Estimates of NeV ranged between 1098 and >75,000 and differed significantly among localities; the NeV estimate for the sample from the northcentral Gulf was >60 times as large as the estimates for the other two localities. The differences in variance effective size could ref lect differences in number of individuals successfully reproducing, differences in patterns and intensity of immigration, or both, and are consistent with the hypothesis, supported by life-history data, that different “demographic stocks” of red snapper are found in the northern Gulf. Estimates of NeV for red snapper in the northern Gulf were at least three orders of magnitude lower than current estimates of census size (N). The ratio of effective to census size (Ne/N) is far below that expected in an ideal population and may reflect high variance in individual reproductive success, high temporal and spatial variance in productivity among subregions or a combination of the two.

The effect of nozzle design on laser micro-machining of M2 tool steels

This paper shows how computational techniques have been used to develop axi-symmetric, straight, sonic-line, minimum length micro nozzles that are suitable for laser micro-machining applications. Gas jets are used during laser micro-machining processing applications to shield the interaction zone between laser and workpiece material, and they determine the machining efficiency of such applications. The paper discusses the nature of laser-material interactions and the importance of using computational fluid dynamics to model pressure distributions in short nozzles that are used to deliver gas to the laser-material interaction zone. Experimental results are presented that highlight unique problems associated with laser micro machining using gas jets.