Hazard Function Models to Estimate Mortality Rates Affecting Fish Populations with Application to the Sea Mullet (Mugil cephalus) Fishery on the Queensland Coast (Australia)

Fisheries management agencies around the world collect age data for the purpose of assessing the status of natural resources in their jurisdiction. Estimates of mortality rates represent a key information to assess the sustainability of fish stocks exploitation. Contrary to medical research or manufacturing where survival analysis is routinely applied to estimate failure rates, survival analysis has seldom been applied in fisheries stock assessment despite similar purposes between these fields of applied statistics. In this paper, we developed hazard functions to model the dynamic of an exploited fish population. These functions were used to estimate all parameters necessary for stock assessment (including natural and fishing mortality rates as well as gear selectivity) by maximum likelihood using age data from a sample of catch. This novel application of survival analysis to fisheries stock assessment was tested by Monte Carlo simulations to assert that it provided unbiased estimations of relevant quantities. The method was applied to the data from the Queensland (Australia) sea mullet (Mugil cephalus) commercial fishery collected between 2007 and 2014. It provided, for the first time, an estimate of natural mortality affecting this stock: 0.22±0.08 year −1 .

A note on sampling chironomids for RNA-based studies of natural populations that retains critical morphological vouchers

The rapid uptake of transcriptomic approaches in freshwater ecology has seen a wealth of data produced concerning the ways in which organisms interact with their environment on a molecular level. Typically, such studies focus either at the community level and so don’t require species identifications, or on laboratory strains of known species identity or natural populations of large, easily identifiable taxa. For chironomids, impediments still exist for applying these technologies to natural populations because they are small-bodied and often require time-consuming secondary sorting of stream material and morphological voucher preparation to confirm species diagnosis. These procedures limit the ability to maintain RNA quantity and quality in such organisms because RNA degrades rapidly and gene expression can be altered rapidly in organisms; thereby limiting the inclusion of such taxa in transcriptomic studies. Here, we demonstrate that these limitations can be overcome and outline an optimised protocol for collecting, sorting and preserving chironomid larvae that enables retention of both morphological vouchers and RNA for subsequent transcriptomics purposes. By ensuring that sorting and voucher preparation are completed within <4 hours after collection and that samples are kept cold at all times, we successfully retained both RNA and morphological vouchers from all specimens. Although not prescriptive in specific methodology, we anticipate that this paper will assist in promoting transcriptomic investigations of the sublethal impact on chironomid gene expression of changes to aquatic environments.

Literacy, security, governmentality: Defining spaces, managing populations – How has education become part of whole of government security strategy?

In this paper I conduct a Foucauldian discourse analysis of a political speech given by Brendon Nelson in 2006 when the Australian Minister for Defence in the Howard Coalition Government. The speech connects conceptualisations of terror, globalization, education and literacy as part of a whole of government security strategy. The analysis examines this speech as an example of a liberal way of governing the conduct of diverse and unpredictable populations. My analysis suggests that the apparatus of government has been strategically used in order to biopolitically contain the rise of complex social forces and protect a set of homogenous cultural values. The purposes of education and uses of literacy are seen as instruments for the inscription of a coded set of values understood to be synonymous with civil society.

Modeling ecological and evolutionary processes in spatially structured populations

Many species inhabit fragmented landscapes, resulting either from anthropogenic or from natural processes. The ecological and evolutionary dynamics of spatially structured populations are affected by a complex interplay between endogenous and exogenous factors. The metapopulation approach, simplifying the landscape to a discrete set of patches of breeding habitat surrounded by unsuitable matrix, has become a widely applied paradigm for the study of species inhabiting highly fragmented landscapes. In this thesis, I focus on the construction of biologically realistic models and their parameterization with empirical data, with the general objective of understanding how the interactions between individuals and their spatially structured environment affect ecological and evolutionary processes in fragmented landscapes. I study two hierarchically structured model systems, which are the Glanville fritillary butterfly in the Åland Islands, and a system of two interacting aphid species in the Tvärminne archipelago, both being located in South-Western Finland. The interesting and challenging feature of both study systems is that the population dynamics occur over multiple spatial scales that are linked by various processes. My main emphasis is in the development of mathematical and statistical methodologies. For the Glanville fritillary case study, I first build a Bayesian framework for the estimation of death rates and capture probabilities from mark-recapture data, with the novelty of accounting for variation among individuals in capture probabilities and survival. I then characterize the dispersal phase of the butterflies by deriving a mathematical approximation of a diffusion-based movement model applied to a network of patches. I use the movement model as a building block to construct an individual-based evolutionary model for the Glanville fritillary butterfly metapopulation. I parameterize the evolutionary model using a pattern-oriented approach, and use it to study how the landscape structure affects the evolution of dispersal. For the aphid case study, I develop a Bayesian model of hierarchical multi-scale metapopulation dynamics, where the observed extinction and colonization rates are decomposed into intrinsic rates operating specifically at each spatial scale. In summary, I show how analytical approaches, hierarchical Bayesian methods and individual-based simulations can be used individually or in combination to tackle complex problems from many different viewpoints. In particular, hierarchical Bayesian methods provide a useful tool for decomposing ecological complexity into more tractable components.

Spatial and temporal determinants of Finnish farmland bird populations

During the past decades agricultural intensification has caused dramatic population declines in a wide range of taxa related to farmland habitats, including farmland birds. In this thesis, I studied how boreal farmland landscape characteristics and agricultural land use affect the abundance and diversity of farmland birds using extensive field data collected by territory mapping of breeding farmland birds in various parts of Finland. My results show that the area and openness of agricultural areas are key determinants of farmland bird abundance and distribution. A landscape composition with enough open farmland combined with key habitats such as farmyards and wetland is likely to provide essential prerequisites for the occurrence of a rich farmland avifauna. In Finland, the majority of large areas suitable for open habitat specialists are located in southern and western parts of the country. However, the diversity of the species with an unfavourable conservation status in Europe (SPECs) had notable hotspot areas in northern and north-western agricultural areas. I found that in boreal agroecosystems farmland birds favour fields with springtime vegetative cover, especially agricultural grasslands and set-asides. Hence, in the spring cereal dominated Finnish agroecosystems it is the absence of field vegetation that may limit populations of many farmland bird species. It is likely that the decrease of crops providing vegetative cover in the spring, such as permanent grasslands, cultivated grass, and autumn-sown cereals, has greatly contributed to the declines of Finnish farmland birds. Grass crops have persistently declined in Finland as a consequence of specialization in crop production and the large-scale decline in livestock husbandry. Small-scale non-crop habitats, especially ditches and ditch margins, are also important for many bird species in the Finnish agroecosystems, but have dramatically declined during the last decades. A major problem for farmland bird conservation in Finland is the conflict between landscape structure and agricultural management. Areas with mixed and cattle farming are virtually absent from the large agricultural plains of southern and south-western Finland, where the landscape structure is more likely to be favourable for rich farmland bird assemblages. On the other hand, mixed and cattle farming is still rather frequent in northern and central parts of the country, where the landscape structure is not suitable for many farmland specialist birds requiring open landscapes. My results provide useful guidelines for farmland bird conservation, and imply that considerable attention needs to be paid to landscape factors when selecting areas for various conservational management actions, such as agri-environment schemes. Actions promoting the abundance of set-asides, grass crops, and ditches would markedly benefit Finnish farmland bird populations. Organic farming may benefit farmland birds, but it is not clear how general its beneficial effect is in boreal agroecosystems. The most urgent action aiming to preserve farmland biodiversity would be to support re-introducing and sustaining cattle farming by environmental subsidies. This would be especially beneficial in the southern parts of Finland, where the landscape characteristics and abundance of agricultural areas are most suitable for farmland birds and where cattle farming is currently rare.

Phylogeography and Adaptive Divergence of Three-spined Stickleback Populations

Genetic studies on phylogeography and adaptive divergence in Northern Hemisphere fish species such as three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) provide an excellent opportunity to investigate genetic mechanisms underlying population differentiation. According to the theory, the process of population differentiation results from a complex interplay between random and deterministic processes as well historical factors. The main scope in this thesis was to study how historical factors like the Pleistocene ice ages have shaped the patterns molecular diversity in three-spined stickleback populations in Europe and how this information could be utilized in the conservation genetic context. Furthermore, identifying footprints of natural selection at the DNA level might be used in identifying genes involved in evolutionary change. Overall, the results from phylogeographic studies indicate that the three-spined stickleback has colonized the Atlantic basin relatively recently but constitutes three major evolutionary lineages in Europe. In addition, the colonization of freshwater appears to result from multiple and independent invasions by the marine conspecifics. Molecular data together with morphology suggest that the most divergent freshwater populations are located in the Balkan Peninsula and these populations deserve a special conservation genetic status without warranting further taxonomical classification. In order to investigate the adaptive divergence in Fennoscandian three-spined stickleback populations several approaches were used. First, sequence variability in the Eda-gene, coding for the number of lateral plates, was concordant with the previously observed global pattern. Full plated allele is in high frequencies among marine populations whereas low plated allele dominates in the freshwater populations. Second, a microsatellite based genome scan identified both indications of balancing and directional selection in the three-spined stickleback genome, i.e. loci with unusually similar or unusually different allele frequencies over populations. The directionally selected loci were mainly associated with the adaptation to freshwater. A follow up study conducting a more detailed analysis in a chromosome region containing a putatively selected gene locus identified a fairly large genomic region affected by natural selection. However, this region contained several gene predictions, all of which might be the actual target of natural selection. All in all, the phylogeographic and adaptive divergence studies indicate that most of the genetic divergence has occurred in the freshwater populations whereas the marine populations have remained relatively uniform.

Evolutionary Genetics in the WIld : from Populations to Individuals

Predicting evolutionary outcomes and reconstructing past evolutionary transitions are among the main goals of evolutionary biology. Ultimately, understanding the mechanisms of evolutionary change will also provide answers to the timely question of whether and how organisms will adapt to changing environmental conditions. In this thesis, I have investigated the relative roles of natural selection, random genetic drift and genetic correlations in the evolution of complex traits at different levels of organisation from populations to individuals. I have shown that natural selection has been the driving force behind body shape divergence of marine and freshwater threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) populations, while genetic drift may have played a significant role in the more fine scale divergence among isolated freshwater populations. These results are concurrent with the patterns that have emerged in the published studies comparing the relative importance of natural selection and genetic drift as explanations for population divergence in different traits and taxa. I have also shown that body shape and armour divergence among threespine stickleback populations is likely to be biased by the patterns of genetic variation and covariation. Body shape and armour variation along the most likely direction of evolution the direction of maximum genetic variance reflects the general patterns of variation observed wild populations across the distribution range of the threespine stickleback. Conversely, it appears that genetic correlations between the sexes have not imposed significant constraints on the evolution of sexual dimorphism in threespine stickleback body shape and armour. I have demonstrated that the patterns of evolution seen in the wild can be experimentally recreated to tease out the effects of different selection agents in detail. In addition, I have shown how important it is to take into account the correlative nature of traits, when making interpretations about the effects of natural selection on individual traits. Overall, this thesis provides a demonstration of how considering the relative roles of different mechanism of evolutionary change at different levels of organisation can aid in an emergence of a comprehensive picture of how adaptive divergence in wild populations occurs.

Diverse populations of T cells with NK cell receptors accumulate in the human intestine in health and in colorectal cancer

T cells expressing NK cell receptors (NKR) display rapid MHC-unrestricted cytotoxicity and potent cytokine secretion and are thought to play roles in immunity against tumors. We have quantified and characterized NKR+ T cells freshly isolated from epithelial and lamina propria layers of duodenum and colon from 16 individuals with no evidence of gastrointestinal disease and from tumor and uninvolved tissue from 19 patients with colorectal cancer. NKR+ T cell subpopulations were differentially distributed in different intestinal compartments, and CD161+ T cells accounted for over one half of T cells at all locations tested. Most intestinal CD161+ T cells expressed alpha beta TCR and either CD4 or CD8. Significant proportions expressed HLA-DR,CD69 and Fas ligand. Upon stimulation in vitro, CD161+ T cells produced IFN-gamma and TNF-alpha but not IL-4. NKT cells expressing the Valpha24Vbeta11 TCR, which recognizes CD1d,were virtually absent from the intestine, but colonic cells produced IFN-gamma in response to the NKT cell agonist ligand alpha-galactosylceramide. NKR+ T cells were not expanded in colonic tumors compared to adjacent uninvolved tissue. The predominance, heterogeneity and differential distribution of NKR+ T cells at different intestinal locations suggests that they are central to intestinal immunity.

Effects of large-scale human land use on Capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus L.) populations in Finland

The Capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus L.) is often used as a focal species for landscape ecological studies: the minimum size for its lekking area is 300 ha, and the annual home range for an individual may cover 30 80 km2. In Finland, Capercaillie populations have decreased by approximately 40 85%, with the declines likely to have started in the 1940s. Although the declines have partly stabilized from the 1990s onwards, it is obvious that the negative population trend was at least partly caused by changes in human land use. The aim of this thesis was to study the connections between human land use and Capercaillie populations in Finland, using several spatial and temporal scales. First, the effect of forest age structure on Capercaillie population trends was studied in 18 forestry board districts in Finland, during 1965 1988. Second, the abundances of Capercaillie and Moose (Alces alces L.) were compared in terms of several land-use variables on a scale of 50 × 50 km grids and in five regions in Finland. Third, the effects of forest cover and fine-grain forest fragmentation on Capercaillie lekking area persistence were studied in three study locations in Finland, on 1000 and 3000 m spatial scales surrounding the leks. The analyses considering lekking areas were performed with two definitions for forest: > 60 and > 152 m3ha 1 of timber volume. The results show that patterns and processes at large spatial scales strongly influence Capercaillie in Finland. In particular, in southwestern and eastern Finland, high forest cover and low human impact were found to be beneficial for this species. Forest cover (> 60 m3ha 1 of timber) surrounding the lekking sites positively affected lekking area persistence only at the larger landscape scale (3000 m radius). The effects of older forest classes were hard to assess due to scarcity of older forests in several study areas. Young and middle-aged forest classes were common in the vicinity of areas with high Capercaillie abundances especially in northern Finland. The increase in the amount of younger forest classes did not provide a good explanation for Capercaillie population decline in 1965 1988. In addition, there was no significant connection between mature forests (> 152 m3ha 1 of timber) and lekking area persistence in Finland. It seems that in present-day Finnish landscapes, area covered with old forest is either too scarce to efficiently explain the abundance of Capercaillie and the persistence of the lekking areas, or the effect of forest age is only important when considering smaller spatial scales than the ones studied in this thesis. In conclusion, larger spatial scales should be considered for assessing the future Capercaillie management. According to the proposed multi-level planning, the first priority should be to secure the large, regional-scale forest cover, and the second priority should be to maintain fine-grained, heterogeneous structure within the separate forest patches. A management unit covering hundreds of hectares, or even tens or hundreds of square kilometers, should be covered, which requires regional-level land-use planning and co-operation between forest owners.

Prevalence of foot disease and risk factors in general inpatient populations: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Objective: To systematically review studies reporting the prevalence in general adult inpatient populations of foot disease disorders (foot wounds, foot infections, collective ‘foot disease’) and risk factors (peripheral arterial disease (PAD), peripheral neuropathy (PN), foot deformity). Methods: A systematic review of studies published between 1980 and 2013 was undertaken using electronic databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE and CINAHL). Keywords and synonyms relating to prevalence, inpatients, foot disease disorders and risk factors were used. Studies reporting foot disease or risk factor prevalence data in general inpatient populations were included. Included study's reference lists and citations were searched and experts consulted to identify additional relevant studies. 2 authors, blinded to each other, assessed the methodological quality of included studies. Applicable data were extracted by 1 author and checked by a second author. Prevalence proportions and SEs were calculated for all included studies. Pooled prevalence estimates were calculated using random-effects models where 3 eligible studies were available. Results: Of the 4972 studies initially identified, 78 studies reporting 84 different cohorts (total 60 231 517 participants) were included. Foot disease prevalence included: foot wounds 0.01–13.5% (70 cohorts), foot infections 0.05–6.4% (7 cohorts), collective foot disease 0.2–11.9% (12 cohorts). Risk factor prevalence included: PAD 0.01–36.0% (10 cohorts), PN 0.003–2.8% (6 cohorts), foot deformity was not reported. Pooled prevalence estimates were only able to be calculated for pressure ulcer-related foot wounds 4.6% (95% CI 3.7% to 5.4%)), diabetes-related foot wounds 2.4% (1.5% to 3.4%), diabetes-related foot infections 3.4% (0.2% to 6.5%), diabetes-related foot disease 4.7% (0.3% to 9.2%). Heterogeneity was high in all pooled estimates (I2=94.2–97.8%, p<0.001). Conclusions: This review found high heterogeneity, yet suggests foot disease was present in 1 in every 20 inpatients and a major risk factor in 1 in 3 inpatients. These findings are likely an underestimate and more robust studies are required to provide more precise estimates.

The RecA intein of Mycobacterium tuberculosis promotes cleavage of ectopic DNA sites. Implications for the dispersal of inteins in natural populations

The RecA intein of Mycobacterium tuberculosis, a novel double-stranded DNA endonuclease, requires both Mn(2+) and ATP for efficient cleavage of the inteinless recA allele. In this study, we show that Mg(2+) alone was sufficient to stimulate PI-MtuI to cleave double-stranded DNA at ectopic sites. In the absence of Mg(2+), PI-MtuI formed complexes with topologically different forms of DNA containing ectopic recognition sequences with equal affinity but failed to cleave DNA. We observed that PI-MtuI was able to inflict double-strand breaks robustly within the ectopic recognition sequence to generate either a blunt end or 1-2-nucleotide 3'-hydroxyl overhangs. Mutational analyses of the presumptive metal ion-binding ligands (Asp(122), Asp(222), and Glu(220)) together with immunoprecipitation assays provided compelling evidence to link both the Mg(2+)- and Mn(2+) and ATP-dependent endonuclease activities to PI-MtuI. The kinetic mechanism of PI-MtuI promoted cleavage of ectopic DNA sites proceeded through a sequential mechanism with transient accumulation of nicked circular duplex DNA as an intermediate. Together, these data suggest that PI-MtuI, like group II introns, might mediate ectopic DNA transposition and hence its lateral transfer in natural populations.