Dynamics of history-dependent epidemics in temporal networks

The structural properties of temporal networks often influence the dynamical processes that occur on these networks, e.g., bursty interaction patterns have been shown to slow down epidemics. In this paper, we investigate the effect of link lifetimes on the spread of history-dependent epidemics. We formulate an analytically tractable activity-driven temporal network model that explicitly incorporates link lifetimes. For Markovian link lifetimes, we use mean-field analysis for computing the epidemic threshold, while the effect of non-Markovian link lifetimes is studied using simulations. Furthermore, we also study the effect of negative correlation between the number of links spawned by an individual and the lifetimes of those links. Such negative correlations may arise due to the finite cognitive capacity of the individuals. Our investigations reveal that heavy-tailed link lifetimes slow down the epidemic, while negative correlations can reduce epidemic prevalence. We believe that our results help shed light on the role of link lifetimes in modulating diffusion processes on temporal networks.

Damage Localization, Sensitivity of Energy Release and the Catastrophe Transition

Large earthquakes can be viewed as catastrophic ruptures in the earth’s crust. There are two common features prior to the catastrophe transition in heterogeneous media. One is damage localization and the other is critical sensitivity; both of which are related to a cascade of damage coalescence. In this paper, in an attempt to reveal the physics underlying the catastrophe transition, analytic analysis based on mean-field approximation of a heterogeneous medium as well as numerical simulations using a network model are presented. Both the emergence of damage localization and the sensitivity of energy release are examined to explore the inherent statistical precursors prior to the eventual catastrophic rupture. Emergence of damage localization, as predicted by the mean-field analysis, is consistent with observations of the evolution of damage patterns. It is confirmed that precursors can be extracted from the time-series of energy release according to its sensitivity to increasing crustal stress. As a major result, present research indicates that the catastrophe transition and the critical point hypothesis (CPH) of earthquakes are interrelated. The results suggest there may be two cross-checking precursors of large earthquakes: damage localization and critical sensitivity.

An extinction-survival-type phase transition in the probabilistic cellular automaton p182-q200

We investigate the critical behaviour of a probabilistic mixture of cellular automata (CA) rules 182 and 200 (in Wolfram`s enumeration scheme) by mean-field analysis and Monte Carlo simulations. We found that as we switch off one CA and switch on the other by the variation of the single parameter of the model, the probabilistic CA (PCA) goes through an extinction-survival-type phase transition, and the numerical data indicate that it belongs to the directed percolation universality class of critical behaviour. The PCA displays a characteristic stationary density profile and a slow, diffusive dynamics close to the pure CA 200 point that we discuss briefly. Remarks on an interesting related stochastic lattice gas are addressed in the conclusions.

The determination of the local conditions for void initiation in front of a crack tip for materials with second-phase particles

A procedure is proposed to determine, for second-phase particles near a crack tip, the maximum particle stresses at the moment of void initiation by either particle fracture or particle/matrix interface separation. A digital image analysis system is applied to perform a quantitative analysis of corresponding fracture surface regions from stereo image pairs taken in the scanning electron microscope. The fracture surface analysis is used to measure, for individual particles, the crack tip opening displacement at the moment of void initiation and the particle location with respect to the crack tip. From these data, the stress tensor at the moment of void initiation is calculated from the Hutchinson–Rice–Rosengren (HRR) field theory. The corresponding average local stresses within the particle are evaluated by a non-linear Mori–Tanaka-type approach. These stresses are compared to estimates according to the models by Argon et al. [A.S. Argon, J. Im, R. Safoglu, Metall. Trans. 6 (1975) 825] and Beremin [F.M. Beremin, Metall. Trans. 12 (1981) 723]. The procedure is demonstrated on an Al6061–10% Al2O3 metal matrix composite.

Two versions of the threshold contact model in two dimensions

Two versions of the threshold contact process ordinary and conservative - are studied on a square lattice. In the first, particles are created on active sites, those having at least two nearest neighbor sites occupied, and are annihilated spontaneously. In the conservative version, a particle jumps from its site to an active site. Mean-field analysis suggests the existence of a first-order phase transition, which is confirmed by Monte Carlo simulations. In the thermodynamic limit, the two versions are found to give the same results. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Stochastic analysis of epidemics on adaptive time varying networks

Many studies investigating the effect of human social connectivity structures (networks) and human behavioral adaptations on the spread of infectious diseases have assumed either a static connectivity structure or a network which adapts itself in response to the epidemic (adaptive networks). However, human social connections are inherently dynamic or time varying. Furthermore, the spread of many infectious diseases occur on a time scale comparable to the time scale of the evolving network structure. Here we aim to quantify the effect of human behavioral adaptations on the spread of asymptomatic infectious diseases on time varying networks. We perform a full stochastic analysis using a continuous time Markov chain approach for calculating the outbreak probability, mean epidemic duration, epidemic reemergence probability, etc. Additionally, we use mean-field theory for calculating epidemic thresholds. Theoretical predictions are verified using extensive simulations. Our studies have uncovered the existence of an ``adaptive threshold,'' i.e., when the ratio of susceptibility (or infectivity) rate to recovery rate is below the threshold value, adaptive behavior can prevent the epidemic. However, if it is above the threshold, no amount of behavioral adaptations can prevent the epidemic. Our analyses suggest that the interaction patterns of the infected population play a major role in sustaining the epidemic. Our results have implications on epidemic containment policies, as awareness campaigns and human behavioral responses can be effective only if the interaction levels of the infected populace are kept in check.

An analysis on overall crack-number-density of short-fatigue-cracks

The evolution of dispersed short-fatigue-cracks is analysed based on the equilibrium of crack-number-density (CND). By separating the mean value and the stochastic fluctuation of local CND, the equilibrium equation of overall CND is derived. Comparing with the mean-field equilibrium equation, the equilibrium equation of overall CND has different forms in the expression of crack-nucleation-rate or crack-growth-rate. The simulation results are compared with experimental measurements showing the stochastic analyses provide consistent tendency with experiments. The discrepancy in simulation results between overall CND and mean-field CND is discussed.

Analysis on the spin reorientation of GdFeCo/DyFeCo exchange-coupled double-layer films

In this paper, GdFeCo/DyFeCo exchange-coupled double-layer films used for center aperture type magnetically induced super resolution were investigated through experiments and theoretical calculation. The samples were prepared by magnetron sputtering method. The polar Kerr effect was measured to prove the spin reorientation of the readout layer. Theoretical study of magnetization profiles was performed on the basis of the mean-field theory and the continuum model. The theoretical results showed that the magnetization orientation of the readout layer changed gradually from in-plane to out-of-plane with the rise of the temperature. Theoretical analysis explained the experimental results successfully. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Analysis of fields in an air-cored superconducting synchronous motor with an HTS racetrack field winding

High temperature superconducting (HTS) synchronous motors can offer significant weight and size reductions, as well as improved efficiency, over conventional copper-wound machines due to the higher current density of high temperature superconducting (HTS) materials. In order to optimise the design parameters and performance of such a machine, this paper proposes a basic physical model of an air-cored HTS synchronous motor with a copper armature winding and HTS field winding. An analytical method for the field analysis in the synchronous motor is then presented, followed by a numerical finite element analysis (FEA) model to verify the analytical solution. The model is utilised to study the influence of the geometry of the HTS coils on the magnetic field at the armature winding, and geometrical parameter optimisation is carried out using this theoretical model to obtain a more sinusoidal magnetic field at the armature, which has a major influence on the performance of the motor.

Equivalent-barotropic definition of tropospheric mean temperature

An equivalent-barotropic (EB) description of the tropospheric temperature field is derived from the geostrophic empirical mode (GEM) in the form of a scalar function Gamma(p, phi), where p is pressure and phi is 300-850-mb thickness. Baroclinic parameter phi plays the role of latitude at each longitudinal section. Compared with traditional Eulerian-mean methods, GEM defines a mean field in baroclinic streamfunction space with a time scale much longer than synoptic variability. It prompts an EB concept that is only based on a baroclinic field. Monthly GEM fields are diagnosed from NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data and account for more than 90% of the tropospheric thermal variance. The circumglobal composite of GEM fields exhibits seasonal, zonal, and hemispheric asymmetries, with larger rms errors occurring in winter and in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Zonally asymmetric features and planetary deviation from EB are seen in the NH winter GEM. Reconstruction of synoptic sections and correlation analysis reveal that the tropospheric temperature field is EB at the leading order and has a 1-day phase lag behind barotropic variations in extratropical regions.

First order k-th moment finite element analysis of nonlinear operator equations with stochastic data

We develop and analyze a class of efficient Galerkin approximation methods for uncertainty quantification of nonlinear operator equations. The algorithms are based on sparse Galerkin discretizations of tensorized linearizations at nominal parameters. Specifically, we consider abstract, nonlinear, parametric operator equations J(\alpha ,u)=0 for random input \alpha (\omega ) with almost sure realizations in a neighborhood of a nominal input parameter \alpha _0. Under some structural assumptions on the parameter dependence, we prove existence and uniqueness of a random solution, u(\omega ) = S(\alpha (\omega )). We derive a multilinear, tensorized operator equation for the deterministic computation of k-th order statistical moments of the random solution's fluctuations u(\omega ) - S(\alpha _0). We introduce and analyse sparse tensor Galerkin discretization schemes for the efficient, deterministic computation of the k-th statistical moment equation. We prove a shift theorem for the k-point correlation equation in anisotropic smoothness scales and deduce that sparse tensor Galerkin discretizations of this equation converge in accuracy vs. complexity which equals, up to logarithmic terms, that of the Galerkin discretization of a single instance of the mean field problem. We illustrate the abstract theory for nonstationary diffusion problems in random domains.

The tensor-kinetic field in nuclear collisions

The role of the tensor terms in the Skyrme interaction is studied for their effect in dynamic calculations where non-zero contributions to the mean-field may arise, even when the starting nucleus, or nuclei are even-even and have no active time-odd potentials in the ground state. We study collisions in the test-bed 16O-16O system, and give a qualitative analysis of the behaviour of the time-odd tensor-kinetic density, which only appears in the mean field Hamiltonian in the presence of the tensor force. We find an axial excitation of this density is induced by a collision.

Mass Transport Perspective on an Accelerated Exclusion Process: Analysis of Augmented Current and Unit-Velocity Phases

In an accelerated exclusion process (AEP), each particle can "hop" to its adjacent site if empty as well as "kick" the frontmost particle when joining a cluster of size ℓ⩽ℓ_{max}. With various choices of the interaction range, ℓ_{max}, we find that the steady state of AEP can be found in a homogeneous phase with augmented currents (AC) or a segregated phase with holes moving at unit velocity (UV). Here we present a detailed study on the emergence of the novel phases, from two perspectives: the AEP and a mass transport process (MTP). In the latter picture, the system in the UV phase is composed of a condensate in coexistence with a fluid, while the transition from AC to UV can be regarded as condensation. Using Monte Carlo simulations, exact results for special cases, and analytic methods in a mean field approach (within the MTP), we focus on steady state currents and cluster sizes. Excellent agreement between data and theory is found, providing an insightful picture for understanding this model system.

Regional variability in visual field sensitivity during hypercapnia

PURPOSE: Previous investigations have demonstrated a relative vascular autoregulatory inefficiency of the inferior compared to the superior retina in healthy subjects breathing increased CO2. The purpose of this study was to determine whether the superior and inferior visual field sensitivities of healthy eyes are similarly affected during mild hypercapnia. DESIGN: Experimental study. METHODS: Visual field analysis (Humphrey Field Analyser; SITA standard 24-2 program) was carried out on one randomly selected eye of 22 subjects (mean age, 27.7 ± 5 years) during normal room air breathing and isoxic hypercapnia. The Student paired t-tests were used to compare the visual field indices mean deviation (MD) and pattern standard deviation (PSD) for each breathing condition. A secondary, sectoral analysis of mean pointwise sensitivity was performed for each condition. In each case a P value of <.01 was considered statistically significant (Bonferroni corrected). RESULTS: Visual field MD was -0.23 ± 0.95dB during room air breathing and -0.49 ± 1.04dB during hypercapnia (P = .034). Sectoral pointwise mean sensitivity deteriorated by 0.46dB (P = .006) in the upper visual hemifield during hypercapnia, whereas no significant difference was observed for the lower hemifield (P = .331). CONCLUSIONS: The upper visual hemifield exhibited a significantly greater degree of deterioration in pointwise visual field mean sensitivity compared to the lower hemifield during hypercapnic conditions. This suggests that the upper visual hemifield and hence inferior retina is more susceptible to insult during hypercapnia than the superior retina in healthy individuals. A regional susceptibility of inferior retinal function to altered vascular or metabolic effects may account for the earlier and more frequent inferior nerve fibre damage associated with glaucomatous optic neuropathy. © 2003 by Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

Dynamics of cholesteric liquid crystals in the presence of a random magnetic field:stochastic dynamics of cholesteric liquid crystal

Based on dynamic renormalization group techniques, this letter analyzes the effects of external stochastic perturbations on the dynamical properties of cholesteric liquid crystals, studied in presence of a random magnetic field. Our analysis quantifies the nature of the temperature dependence of the dynamics; the results also highlight a hitherto unexplored regime in cholesteric liquid crystal dynamics. We show that stochastic fluctuations drive the system to a second-ordered Kosterlitz-Thouless phase transition point, eventually leading to a Kardar-Parisi-Zhang (KPZ) universality class. The results go beyond quasi-first order mean-field theories, and provides the first theoretical understanding of a KPZ phase in distorted nematic liquid crystal dynamics.