MINISTÉRIO PASTORAL METODISTA NO DISTRITO ECLESIÁSTICO DE PIRACICABA: UM ESTUDO DE CASO SOBRE A PRÁXIS DE SOLIDARIEDADE NO CONTEXTO DA GLOBALIZAÇÃO

Assiste-se na contemporaneidade o avanço da globalização econômica, responsável por alguns progressos à humanidade, mas também por profundos problemas sociais, como exemplo, o aumento da multidão de excluídos e miseráveis no mundo. Soma-se a isto, o surgimento na atualidade da religião de mercado, ou seja, uma religião privatizada, hedonista, a-histórica, descomprometida com os dramas sociais ou valores como a solidariedade. Tal cenário apresenta desafios à práxis pastoral da Igreja. Neste sentido, o presente trabalho, situado na área de Práxis Religiosa e Sociedade, tem como objetivo analisar como a práxis pastoral solidária metodista se apresenta nestes tempos de globalização econômica. Salienta-se que a Igreja Metodista é gerida por governo episcopal, organizada geográfica e politicamente em oito (08) Regiões Eclesiásticas. Cada Região Eclesiástica possui uma subdivisão interna, denominada de distrito. Cada igreja local, distrito e região são ligados de forma conexional no sistema metodista. Como um estudo da práxis pastoral metodista em âmbito nacional se mostra inviável, a presente pesquisa propõe investigar as práxis solidárias dos pastores metodistas do Distrito Eclesiástico de Piracicaba. Para tanto, este trabalho utiliza uma metodologia que privilegia o método de análise histórico crítico. A relevância de tal pesquisa está em demonstrar a interação entre um setor do protestantismo brasileiro e a globalização econômica, possibilitando uma avaliação de certas mudanças e/ou transformações que este intercâmbio provoca e suas implicações para a expressão de uma práxis pastoral solidária metodista na contemporaneidade.(AU)

MINISTÉRIO PASTORAL METODISTA NO DISTRITO ECLESIÁSTICO DE PIRACICABA: UM ESTUDO DE CASO SOBRE A PRÁXIS DE SOLIDARIEDADE NO CONTEXTO DA GLOBALIZAÇÃO

Assiste-se na contemporaneidade o avanço da globalização econômica, responsável por alguns progressos à humanidade, mas também por profundos problemas sociais, como exemplo, o aumento da multidão de excluídos e miseráveis no mundo. Soma-se a isto, o surgimento na atualidade da religião de mercado, ou seja, uma religião privatizada, hedonista, a-histórica, descomprometida com os dramas sociais ou valores como a solidariedade. Tal cenário apresenta desafios à práxis pastoral da Igreja. Neste sentido, o presente trabalho, situado na área de Práxis Religiosa e Sociedade, tem como objetivo analisar como a práxis pastoral solidária metodista se apresenta nestes tempos de globalização econômica. Salienta-se que a Igreja Metodista é gerida por governo episcopal, organizada geográfica e politicamente em oito (08) Regiões Eclesiásticas. Cada Região Eclesiástica possui uma subdivisão interna, denominada de distrito. Cada igreja local, distrito e região são ligados de forma conexional no sistema metodista. Como um estudo da práxis pastoral metodista em âmbito nacional se mostra inviável, a presente pesquisa propõe investigar as práxis solidárias dos pastores metodistas do Distrito Eclesiástico de Piracicaba. Para tanto, este trabalho utiliza uma metodologia que privilegia o método de análise histórico crítico. A relevância de tal pesquisa está em demonstrar a interação entre um setor do protestantismo brasileiro e a globalização econômica, possibilitando uma avaliação de certas mudanças e/ou transformações que este intercâmbio provoca e suas implicações para a expressão de uma práxis pastoral solidária metodista na contemporaneidade.(AU)

A hierarquia de preferência do consumidor em decisões de investimento financeiro

A literatura acadêmica sobre o comportamento do investidor financeiro é bastante escassa. A pesquisa sobre o processo de decisão, em geral, aborda tradeoffs na aquisição de produtos e pouco se discute o processo de decisão de investimento. Esta tese pretende contribuir para a redução deste gap ao discutir fatores determinantes para a tomada de decisão do investidor pessoal em produtos financeiros. A decisão de investimento é complexa, envolve, entre outros, o tradeoff entre renunciar o consumo presente pela possibilidade de maior bem estar no futuro. Adicionalmente, em muitas situações, existe possibilidade real de perda dos recursos financeiros investidos. Para investigar os percursos desta decisão foram realizadas entrevistas em profundidade com executivos ligados ao setor de fundos de investimento e ao de distribuição de produtos de investimento dos maiores bancos brasileiros atuantes no segmento de varejo. Os conhecimentos recolhidos e a revisão de literatura efetuada subsidiaram a elaboração do questionário de pesquisa aplicado em plataforma web junto a potenciais investidores. Os atributos rentabilidade, possibilidade de perda (proxy de risco), liquidez, taxa de administração e recomendação do gerente foram identificados como os mais relevantes para a decisão do investidor. Para construção dos estímulos e decomposição da utilidade da decisão foi utilizada a técnica conjoint based choice (CBC) que simula uma decisão real. Os resultados apontaram ser a recomendação do gerente o atributo mais importante para a formação da preferência por uma alternativa de investimento, resultado que, por si só, indica que fatores não racionais exercem influência na decisão. Estudou-se, então, o impacto da aversão ao risco e do estilo cognitivo do investidor. Os resultados denotam que os mais avessos e os mais intuitivos são mais suscetíveis à recomendação do gerente, mas que seus efeitos são independentes entre si. As evidências sugerem que os mais intuitivos utilizam o gerente para alcançar conforto cognitivo na decisão e que os mais avessos para mitigar a sensação de risco associada ao produto. Uma análise de cluster indicou ser possível segmentar a amostra em dois grupos, um mais propenso à recomendação do gerente e outro aos atributos do produto. A recomendação do gerente mostrou ser o atributo mais forte na distinção dos grupos. Os resultados indicam que uma segmentação de mercado baseada na propensão à recomendação do gerente pode ser efetiva para direcionar a construção de uma estratégia de relacionamento que busque incrementar os resultados de longo prazo.

Modelos baseados em agentes aplicados à dinâmica de preços do mercado imobiliário

Um dos aspectos regulatórios fundamentais para o mercado imobiliário no Brasil são os limites para obtenção de financiamento no Sistema Financeiro de Habitação. Esses limites podem ser definidos de forma a aumentar ou reduzir a oferta de crédito neste mercado, alterando o comportamento dos seus agentes e, com isso, o preço de mercado dos imóveis. Neste trabalho, propomos um modelo de formação de preços no mercado imobiliário brasileiro com base no comportamento dos agentes que o compõem. Os agentes vendedores têm comportamento heterogêneo e são influenciados pela demanda histórica, enquanto que os agentes compradores têm o seu comportamento determinado pela disponibilidade de crédito. Esta disponibilidade de crédito, por sua vez, é definida pelos limites para concessão de financiamento no Sistema Financeiro de Habitação. Verificamos que o processo markoviano que descreve preço de mercado converge para um sistema dinâmico determinístico quando o número de agentes aumenta, e analisamos o comportamento deste sistema dinâmico. Mostramos qual é a família de variáveis aleatórias que representa o comportamento dos agentes vendedores de forma que o sistema apresente um preço de equilíbrio não trivial, condizente com a realidade. Verificamos ainda que o preço de equilíbrio depende não só das regras de concessão de financiamento no Sistema Financeiro de Habitação, como também do preço de reserva dos compradores e da memória e da sensibilidade dos vendedores a alterações na demanda. A memória e a sensibilidade dos vendedores podem levar a oscilações de preços acima ou abaixo do preço de equilíbrio (típicas de processos de formação de bolhas); ou até mesmo a uma bifurcação de Neimark-Sacker, quando o sistema apresenta dinâmica oscilatória estável.

Impacto de la estrategia de diversificación en la expansión a mercados exteriores sobre los resultados

El propósito de este trabajo consiste en examinar los determinantes de los resultados empresariales, derivados de la estrategia de diversificación en la expansión a mercados exteriores, en términos de los factores del mercado, del producto y de la empresa. Como novedad, la metodología aplicada utiliza el estudio del suceso ("event-study") para estimar los excesos de rentabilidad de las acciones generados en la Bolsa por una muestra de 35 noticias de expansión a mercados exteriores correspondientes a 11 empresas españolas diversificadas; así como el análisis de regresión para examinar el impacto de los factores del mercado, del producto y de la empresa sobre dichos excesos de rentabilidad. La aplicación empírica realizada en nuestro país permite detectar que, en promedio, el impacto de dichas noticias sobre la rentabilidad de las acciones es positivo, siendo sus determinantes la especialización del producto y el grado de desarrollo del país de destino.

The changing landscape of financial markets in Europe, the United States and Japan. Bruegel Working Paper 2013/02, 18 March 2013

We compare the structure of the financial sectors of the EU27, Japan and the United States, looking at a set of 23 indicators. We find a large variation within the European Union in the structure of the financial sector. Using principal components analysis, we identify robust groups of EU countries. One group consists of the eastern European members that entered the EU more recently.These have substantially smaller financial sectors than the old member states. A second group can be classified as market-based (MBEU) and the third group is more bank-based (BBEU). We compare US, MBEU, BBEU, Eastern EU and Japan with the following main results. First, the groups within Europe are geographically related. Second, in many indicators, MBEU countries are closer to the (market-based) US, while BBEU countries more closely resemble Japan. Paradoxically, however, market-based EU countries also have large banking sectors. Banks in market-based countries have larger cross-border assets and liabilities, and derive a larger fraction of their income from fees, rather than interest income, than banks in bank-based countries. Finally, for most indicators, the ordering of groups of countries is quite stable over time, but while the crisis has had no impact on the relative ordering of the groups, it has slightly widened the gap between the US and all EU regions insome respects. We also find that during the crisis, substitution between market-based and bank-based sources of finance occurred in the US, and to a lesser extent in MBEU and BBEU countries.

Climate Conundrums at High Altitude. EU Diplomacy Paper 01/2014, January 2014

The European Union (EU) was the frontrunner for the establishment of the world’s first multinational emissions trading scheme (ETS). Committed to combating climate change, the EU sought to overcome the multilateral paralysis within the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) to mitigate aviation emissions. Unsuccessful in pushing for a global market-based measure (MBM) within the organisation, the EU was ready for take-off to include the sector in the EU emissions trading system (EU ETS). The geographical scope, however, including all flights from and to Europe in their entire trajectory, caused frictions with the international community about sovereignty issues. Ultimately, Climate Commissioner Connie Hedegaard announced a ‘stop-the-clock’ for international flights, a temporary derogation until the 2013 ICAO Assembly in order to find a global agreement. The ’stop-the-clock’ initiative provides ample opportunity to analyse EU leadership in curbing aviation emissions based on an analytical framework specifying different types of leadership. Its shows the global challenge to the EU’s claim of structural leadership on various levels in and beyond ICAO. The paper aims to analyse to what extent the EU is a global leader in mitigating aviation emissions and to identify the kind of EU leadership according to a threefold analytical framework. In addition, it will factor in the 'stop-the-clock' initiative and to what extent it altered the perception of EU leadership in the field. The paper comes to the conclusion that EU leadership in mitigating aviation emissions is not stalling. On the contrary, the EU, by pursuing the extension of the EU ETS, has put aviation emissions on everybody’s radar – and thus showed idea-based leadership. Proving the scheme’s feasibility further underlined EU leadership, in the form of directional leadership. The 'stop-the-clock' decision, however, already indicated what was later on confirmed in the 38th ICAO Assembly: Unilateral structural leadership of the EU in the field of aviation emissions is not credible at the moment.

Rebalancing the EU-Russia-Ukraine gas relationship. Bruegel Policy Contribution ISSUE 2014/15, DECEMBER 2014

The October 2014 agreement on gas supplies between Russia, Ukraine and the European Union did not resolve the Ukraine-Russia conflict over gas. The differences between parties in terms of objectives, growing mistrust and legacy issues make it unlikely that a long-term stable arrangement will be achieved without further escalation. Without EU pressure and support, Ukraine is likely to enter a new unfavourable gas arrangement with Russia, which could have repercussions beyond the energy sector. Key highlights: To reduce prices and increase the security of imports, the EU as a bloc should redefine its gas relationship with Russia and Ukraine and overcome the diverging interests of EU member states on second-order issues. Implementation of a joint strategy rests on enforcement of EU competition and gas market rules, a strengthened role for the Energy Community and the establishment of a market-based instrument for supply security. For Ukraine, the EU should serve as an anchor for comprehensive gas sector reform. Contingent on Ukraine’s reform efforts, EU financial and technical assistance, the enabling of reverse flows from the EU to Ukraine and pressure on Gazprom, should eventually enable Ukraine to obtain a sustainable gas-supply contract with Russia. This should make a sustainable and mutually beneficial Russia-Ukraine-EU gas relationship possible. However, during the transition, the EU should be prepared for possible frictions.

The Malleable Politics of Welfare-to-Work Reform: Germany's "Hartz" activation compared with Dutch, British and Irish cases. ACES Cases No. 2009.1

We compare the Hartz reforms in Germany with three other major labor market activation reforms carried out by center-left governments. Britain and Germany developed radically neoliberal “mandatory” activation policies, whereas in the Netherlands and Ireland radical activation change took a very different “enabling” form. The Irish and German cases were path deviant, the British and Dutch path dependent. We explain why Germany underwent “mandatory” and path deviant activation by focusing on two features of the policy discourse. First, the elite level discourse was “ensilaged” sealing policy formation off from dissenting actors. This is what the British and German cases had in common and the result was reform that identified long term unemployment as social delinquency rather than market failure. Second, although the German policy-making system lacked the “authoritative” features that facilitated reform in the British case, and the Irish policy-making system lacked the “reflexive” mechanisms that facilitated reform in the Dutch case, in both Germany and Ireland the wider legitimating discourses were reshaped by novel institutional vehicles (the Hartz Commission and FÁS) that served to fundamentally alter system-constitutive perceptions about policy. The findings suggest that major reform of welfare-to-work policy may be much more malleable than previously thought.

Measuring Returns to Education and Human Capital in the Southern Mediterranean. MEDPRO Technical Report No. 17/September 2012

Measuring human capital has been a significant challenge for economists because the main variable of interest is intangible and not directly observable. In the Middle Eastern and Northern African region the task is further complicated by the general scarcity of comparable and reliable data. This study overcomes these challenges by relying on a unique international survey that covers most of the region and by deriving a market-based measure that uses returns to education and various labour market factors as guidance. The results show that private returns to schooling are relatively low in most southern Mediterranean countries (SMC). Israel and Turkey are clear outliers, surpassing even the EU-MED averages. In Algeria and Jordan, the returns are almost flat, implying that earnings do not respond significantly to education levels. Despite high attainment levels, Greece, Spain and Portugal also perform badly; only marginally surpassing some of the bottom-ranked SMC, providing evidence of problems in absorption capacity. The baseline scenarios for 2030 show substantial sensitivity to current estimates on returns to education. In particular, improving attainment levels can produce measurable gains in the future only when the returns to education are already high. Such is the case for Egypt, Morocco and Turkey, which substantially improve their human capital stocks under the baseline scenarios, surpassing several EU-MED countries with little or no room for improvement.

The EU-Turkey Customs Union: A model for Future Euro-Med Integration. MEDPRO Technical Report No. 9/March 2012

This paper studying the 1995 EU-Turkey Customs Union (CU) reveals that the CU has been a major instrument of integration of the Turkish economy into the EU and global markets, offering powerful tools to reform the Turkish economy. Turkish producers of industrial goods are protected by tariffs from external competition to exactly the same extent as EU producers, and they face competition from duty-free imports of industrial goods from world-class pan-European firms. In return, Turkish industrial producers have duty-free market access to the European Economic Area, which was recently extended to certain Mediterranean countries. Trade liberalisation achieved through the CU has thus successfully moved the Turkish economy from a government-controlled regime to a market-based one, and Turkish producers of industrial goods have performed remarkably well. The paper further shows that market access conditions for Turkish producers are determined, in addition to tariffs, by standards, conformity assessment procedures, competition policy, industrial property rights and contingent protectionism measures. The CU also offered Turkey the opportunity to establish new institutions, and modernise and upgrade rules and disciplines required for the elimination of technical barriers to trade, and for the implementation of the EU’s competition, industrial property rights, and contingent protectionism policies.

The ‘Visible Hand’ of the ECB’s Quantitative Easing. CEPS Working Document No. 407/May 2015

Quantitative easing à la ECB has produced so far an impact on long-term nominal rates through ex ante channels: signalling channels, term duration channels, and risk premia channels. The term duration channel will also lead to a lengthening of the average maturity of government debts, with possible implications for fiscal policy. The ECB’s determination to buy government bonds in a fragmented market with a low net supply may also produce an ex post impact, during the actual asset purchases, but less on nominal rates and more on financial plumbing, as recent volatility suggests. As the effects of scarce supply in collateral markets are felt, repo rates remain well below zero. Lower supply and limited re-usability of high quality collateral, capped by regulatory requirements, is a constraint on market liquidity and compresses dealers’ balance sheets. By keeping a depressed yield curve and asset prices high, QE may also accelerate the consolidation of both traditional and capital-market based (dealer) bank business models. What is less clear is how these changing business models will interact with the sharp rise of the asset management industry in the aftermath of the crisis, which raises questions about the implications for global collateral flows and deposit-like funding channels.

Environmentalizing economic development: a South Asian perspective

South Asia's pursuit of economic development has entailed considerable damage to and exposed the fragility of the physical environment of the region. This paper provides an analytical overview of the of the environmental problem that manifest themselves in South Asia in a comparative perspective with East and Southeast Asian countries as well as selected developed market economics. To date, South Asian development process has been environment-intensive and environment-depleting. It is argued that environmental problems are likely to set serious constraints to sustain growth in production to support a growing population. By exploring the relationship between indices of human welfare and bio-diversity conservation. the paper exposes the dichotomy of the development process. Finally, the study underscores the need for a range of policy options that rely both based and non-market based instruments in an integrated setting to enviromnentalize South Asian economic development. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

Technological and financial approaches to risk management in agriculture: an integrated approach

In the present paper, risk-management problems where farmers manage risk both through production decisions and through the use of market-based and informal risk-management mechanisms are considered. It is shown that many of these problems share a common structure, and that a unified and informative treatment of a broad spectrum of risk-management tools is possible within a cost-minimisation framework, under minimal conditions on their objective functions. Fundamental results are derived that apply regardless of the producer's preference towards risks, using only the no-arbitrage condition that agricultural producers never forego any opportunity to lower costs without lowering returns.

ICP-MS Trace Element Analysis of Song Dynasty Porcelains from Ding, Jiexiu and Guantai kilns, North China

Bodies of Ding kiln white porcelains and their imitations from Guantai and Jiexiu kilns of the Chinese Song dynasty (960-1279 AD) were analysed for 40 trace elements by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). Numerous trace element compositions and ratios allow these visually similar products to be distinguished, and a Ding-style shard of uncertain origin is identified as a likely genuine Ding product. In Jiexiu kiln, Ding-style products have trace element features distinctive from blackwares of an inferior quality intended for the lower end market. Based on geochemical behaviour of these trace elements, we propose that geochemically distinctive raw materials were used for Ding-style products of a higher quality, which possibly also underwent purification by levigation prior to use. Capable of analysing over 40 elements with a typical long term precision of < 2%, this high precision ICP-MS method proves to be very powerful for grouping and characterising archaeological ceramics. Combined with geochemical interpretation, it can provide insights into the raw materials and techniques used by ancient potters. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.