Risk management systems in society

Kirjoitus perustuu 24.9.1996 pidettyyn esitelmään yhteiskunnan riskien hallintaa käsittelevässä seminaarissa.

Measures of health and disease in Africa: are current methods giving us useful information about trends in cardiovascular diseases?

An enormous burst of interest in the public health burden from chronic disease in Africa has emerged as a consequence of efforts to estimate global population health. Detailed estimates are now published for Africa as a whole and each country on the continent. These data have formed the basis for warnings about sharp increases in cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the coming decades. In this essay we briefly examine the trajectory of social development on the continent and its consequences for the epidemiology of CVD and potential control strategies. Since full vital registration has only been implemented in segments of South Africa and the island nations of Seychelles and Mauritius - formally part of WHO-AFRO - mortality data are extremely limited. Numerous sample surveys have been conducted but they often lack standardization or objective measures of health status. Trend data are even less informative. However, using the best quality data available, age-standardized trends in CVD are downward, and in the case of stroke, sharply so. While acknowledging that the extremely limited available data cannot be used as the basis for inference to the continent, we raise the concern that general estimates based on imputation to fill in the missing mortality tables may be even more misleading. No immediate remedies to this problem can be identified, however bilateral collaborative efforts to strength local educational institutions and governmental agencies rank as the highest priority for near term development.

Improving Traffic Safety Culture in Iowa – Phase II, July 2013

Phase II of Improving Traffic Safety Culture in Iowa focuses on producing actions that will improve the traffic safety culture across the state, and involves collaboration among the three large public universities in Iowa: Iowa State University, University of Northern Iowa, and University of Iowa. More specifically, this second phase synthesizes the expert opinions solicited in Phase I with prevailing public views and/or opinions gathered from a follow-up survey on Iowa’s 2000 public opinion survey, which the University of Northern Iowa, Center for Social and Behavioral Research, administered. More recent data on the opinions of Iowans and of people nationally contrasted with past data will help better define the public’s position on top safety culture issues. This, in turn, will provide a better basis for developing actionable, fundable, and ultimately successful strategies that will make a tangible difference in improving traffic safety in Iowa.

Evolutionarily stable learning schedules and cumulative culture in discrete generation models.

Individual learning (e.g., trial-and-error) and social learning (e.g., imitation) are alternative ways of acquiring and expressing the appropriate phenotype in an environment. The optimal choice between using individual learning and/or social learning may be dictated by the life-stage or age of an organism. Of special interest is a learning schedule in which social learning precedes individual learning, because such a schedule is apparently a necessary condition for cumulative culture. Assuming two obligatory learning stages per discrete generation, we obtain the evolutionarily stable learning schedules for the three situations where the environment is constant, fluctuates between generations, or fluctuates within generations. During each learning stage, we assume that an organism may target the optimal phenotype in the current environment by individual learning, and/or the mature phenotype of the previous generation by oblique social learning. In the absence of exogenous costs to learning, the evolutionarily stable learning schedules are predicted to be either pure social learning followed by pure individual learning ("bang-bang" control) or pure individual learning at both stages ("flat" control). Moreover, we find for each situation that the evolutionarily stable learning schedule is also the one that optimizes the learned phenotype at equilibrium.

An Assessment of Traffic Safety in Urban Deer Herd Management Zones in Iowa, 2010

Many states are striving to keep their deer population to a sustainable and controllable level while maximizing public safety. In Iowa, measures to control the deer population include annual deer hunts and special deer herd management plans in urban areas. While these plans may reduce the deer population, traffic safety in these areas has not been fully assessed. Using deer population data from the Iowa Department of Natural Resources and data on deer-vehicle crashes and deer carcass removals from the Iowa Department of Transportation, the authors examined the relationship between deer-vehicle collisions, deer density, and land use in three urban areas in Iowa that have deer management plans in place (Cedar Rapids, Dubuque, and Iowa City) over the period 2002 to 2007. First, a comparison of deer-vehicle crash counts and deer carcass removal counts was conducted at the county level. Further, the authors estimated econometric models to investigate the factors that influence the frequency and severity of deer-vehicle crashes in these zones. Overall, the number of deer carcasses removed on the primary roads in these counties was greater than the number of reported deervehicle crashes on those roads. These differences can be attributed to a number of reasons, including variability in data reporting and data collection practices. In addition, high rates of underreporting of crashes were found on major routes that carry high volumes of traffic. This study also showed that multiple factors affect deer-vehicle crashes and corresponding injury outcomes in urban management zones. The identified roadway and non-roadway factors could be useful for identifying locations on the transportation system that significantly impact deer species and safety and for determining appropriate countermeasures for mitigation. Efforts to reduce deer density adjacent to roads and developed land and to provide wider shoulders on undivided roads are recommended. Improving the consistency and accuracy of deer carcass and deer-vehicle collision data collection methods and practices is also desirable.

A first population-based cohort study of risk factors of stroke mortality in Africa

Background: We are not aware of any population-based cohort study of risk factors of stroke in the African region. We conducted a longitudinal study in the Seychelles (Indian Ocean, east of Kenya), a middle-income island state with majority of the population of African descent. Data in Africa are important for international comparison and for advocacy in the region. Methods: Three population-based examination surveys were performed in 1989, 1994 and 2004 (n_1081, 1067, and 1255, respectively). Baseline data were linked with cause-specific mortality from vital statistics up to May 2007. We considered stroke (any type) as a cause of death if the diagnosis was reported in any of the 4 fields for underlying and concomitant causes of death. Results. Among the 3317 different persons aged 25-64 at baseline, 291 died including 58 with stroke during follow up (mean: 10.2 years). The prevalence of high blood pressure (BP _140/90 mmHg) was 38%. In multivariate Cox regression, stroke mortality was increased by 18% and 35% for a 10-mmHg increase in systolic, respectively diastolic BP (p_0.001). The hazard ratios were 2.4 (95% CI: 1.7-3.3) for a 10-year age increase, 0.32 (0.15- 0.67) for a 1-mmol HDL-cholesterol increase, 2.2 (1.1- 4.2) for smoking _5 cigarettes vs. no smoking and 1.7 for diabetes (0.93-3.3; p_0.08). No significant association was found for sex, LDL-cholesterol, alcohol intake, and occupation. Conclusion. This first populationbased cohort study in the African region demonstrates high mortality rates from stroke in middle-aged adults and confirms the important role of high BP. This emphasizes the critical importance of reducing BP and other modifiable risk factors in this population.

Culture in infancy : an account of a way the object "sculpts" early development.

The
 aim
 of
 this
 paper
 is
 to
 bring
 into
 consideration
 a
 way
 of
 studying
 culture
 in
 infancy.
 An
 emphasis 
is 
put 
on
 the
 role 
that 
the 
material 
object 
plays 
in 
early 
interactive
 processes. 
Accounted
 as
 a
 cultural
 artefact,
 the
 object
 is
 seen
 as
 a
 fundamental
 element
 within
 triadic
 mother‐object‐ infant
 interactions
 and
 is
 believed
 to
 be
 a
 driving
 force
 both
 for
 communicative
 and
 cognitive
 development.
 In
 order
 to
 reconsider
 the
 importance
 of
 the
 object
 in
 child
 development
 and
 to
 present
 an 
approach
 of 
studying
object
 construction,
accounts 
in 
literature 
on 
early 
communication
 development
 and
 the
 importance
 of
 the
 object
 are
 reviewed
 and
 discussed
 under
 the
 light
 of
 the
 cultural 
specificity 
of 
the 
material 
object.


Evaluating teaching and management innovations in an online university: the case of the Universitat Oberta de Catalunya

The Universitat Oberta de Catalunya (UOC) is an online university that has innovation as a transversal feature in all its activities and processes. Therefore, innovation is present in the annual objectives of all the academic and management departments in order to increase student satisfaction. UOC stimulates innovation by funding strategic projects as well as organizing regular internal calls for small projects which brings about innovative academic and management proposals. In this paper we present the method for evaluating teaching and management innovations through internal calls (APLICA), by selecting which initiatives are suitable to become strategic innovative projects (INNOVA) or which features should compose any application available at the OpenApps platform. Besides, general indicators used by the Innovation Program to evaluate the activities carried out are also reported.

Outsourcing and Offshore Software Development in Africa

Globalization of software today is making many companies in the industrialized nations to outsource their work to low-wage countries. This thesis aims at obtaining an initial general overview of offshore software development in Africa. It seeks to explore the state of offshore software outsourcing in Africa with a focus on the factors contributing to the successes and challenges of offshore software development practicesin Africa. The thesis made use of electronic questionnaires and voice interviews to collect the data. Identified African vendors were interviewed, and the data was analyzed qualitatively. The study found that theAfrican software outsourcing industry is still at its infancy. It is expected that the industry will grow. However, a lot needs to be done, and African governments are called upon to actively implement supportive infrastructures that will promote the growth of the local and export software industries. Further research is recommended to cover the wide context ofthe topic.

Applying the Total Quality Management Method in ICT Business

Kokonaisvaltaisen laatujohtamisen malli TQM (Total Quality Management) on noussut yhdeksi merkittävimmistä konsepteista globaalissa liiketoiminnassa, missä laatu on tärkeä kilpailutekijä. Tämä diplomityö pureutuu nykyaikaiseen kokonaisvaltaisen laatujohtamisen konseptiin, joka nostaa perinteisen laatuajattelun uudelle tasolle. Moderni laatujohtamisajattelu on kasvanut koskemaan yrityksen toiminnan kaikkia osa-alueita. Työn tavoitteena on TietoEnator Käsittely ja Verkkopalvelut liiketoiminta-alueen osalta laadun sekä liiketoiminnallisen suorituskyvyn parantaminen kokonaisvaltaisesti. Ennen varsinaisen laatujohtamis-konseptin käsittelyä työ esittelee ensin yleisellä tasolla perinteistä laatu käsitettä sekä käsittelee lyhyestiICT-liiketoimintaa ja siihen liittyviä standardeja. Lopuksi tutkimus esittelee priorisoituja parannusehdotuksia ja askeleita jotka auttavat organisaatiota saavuttamaan kokonaisvaltaisen laatujohtamiskonseptin mukaisia pyrkimyksiä.

The role of culture in international students' image formation: the emergence of expected and perceived university image

Tämän tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli selvittää, vaikuttaako kansainvälisen opiskelijan kulttuuritausta opiskelijan odotetun ja koetun yliopistoimagon muodostumiseen. Jotta kulttuurin vaikutuksia yliopistoimagoon voitiin tutkia, tutkimuksessa tunnistettiin yliopistoimagon muodostumiseen oleellisesti vaikuttavat tekijät. Kulttuurin roolia organisaation imagon muodostumisessa ei ole tutkittu aiemmissa tieteellisissä julkaisuissa. Näin ollen tämän tutkimuksen voidaan katsoa edistäneen nykyistä imagotutkimusta. Tutkimuksen kohdeyliopistona oli Lappeenrannan teknillinen yliopisto (LTY). Tutkimuksen empiirinen osa toteutettiin kvantitatiivisena Internet - pohjaisena kyselytutkimuksena tilastollisen analyysin menetelmin. Otos (N=179) koostui kaikista Lappeenrannan teknillisessä yliopistossa lukuvuonna 2005-2006 opiskelleista kansainvälisistä opiskelijoista. Kyselyyn vastasi 68,7 % opiskelijoista. Johtopäätöksenä voidaan todeta, että kulttuurilla ei ole merkittävää vaikutusta yliopistoimagon muodostumiseen. Tutkimuksessa saatiin selville, että yliopiston Internet-sivujen laatu vaikuttaa positiivisesti odotetun yliopistoimagon muodostumiseen, kun taas koettuun yliopistoimagoon vaikuttavat positiivisesti odotettu yliopistoimago, pedagoginen laatu sekä opetusympäristö. Markkinoinnin näkökulmasta tulokset voidaan vetää yhteen toteamalla, että yliopistojen ei tarvitsisi räätälöidä tutkimuksessa tunnistettuja imagoon vaikuttavia tekijöitä eri kulttuureistatulevia opiskelijoita varten.