A comparative study of prognostic model for bearing failure

An effective prognostics program will provide ample lead time for maintenance engineers to schedule a repair and to acquire replacement components before catastrophic failures occur. This paper presents a technique for accurate assessment of the remnant life of machines based on health state probability estimation technique. For comparative study of the proposed model with the proportional hazard model (PHM), experimental bearing failure data from an accelerated bearing test rig were used. The result shows that the proposed prognostic model based on health state probability estimation can provide a more accurate prediction capability than the commonly used PHM in bearing failure case study.

Structural complexity in structural health monitoring: Preliminary experimental modal testing and analysis

Many researchers in the field of civil structural health monitoring have developed and tested their methods on simple to moderately complex laboratory structures such as beams, plates, frames, and trusses. Field work has also been conducted by many researchers and practitioners on more complex operating bridges. Most laboratory structures do not adequately replicate the complexity of truss bridges. This paper presents some preliminary results of experimental modal testing and analysis of the bridge model presented in the companion paper, using the peak picking method, and compares these results with those of a simple numerical model of the structure. Three dominant modes of vibration were experimentally identified under 15 Hz. The mode shapes and order of the modes matched those of the numerical model; however, the frequencies did not match.

Decision support system for infrastructure sustainability in operations

There is an increasing awareness of sustainability and climate change and its impact on infrastructure and engineering asset management in design, construction, and operations. Sustainability rating tools have been proposed and/or developed that provide ratings of infrastructure projects in differing phases of their life cycle on sustainability. This paper provides an overview of decision support systems using sustainability rating framework that can be used to prioritize or select tasks and activities within projects to enhance levels of sustainability outcomes. These systems can also be used to prioritize projects within an organization to optimize sustainability outcomes within an allocated budget.

Understanding the business case for infrastructure sustainability

The relationship between corporate and sustainability performance continues to be controversial and unclear, not withstanding numerous theoretical and empirical studies. Despite this, views on corporate responsibilities “meet where management can show how voluntary social and environmental management contributes to the competitiveness and economic success of the company.” This approach is fundamental to the business case for infrastructure sustainability. It suggests that beyond-compliance activities undertaken by companies are commercially justified if they can be shown to contribute to profitability and shareholder value. Potential public good benefits range across a wide spectrum of economic (for example employment, local purchasing, reduced demand for electricity generation), social (indigenous employment and development, equity of access), and environmental (lower greenhouse gas emission, reduced use of non-renewable resources and potable water, less waste, enhanced biodiversity). Some of these benefits have impacts that lie in more than one of the economic, social, and environmental areas of public goods. Using a sustainability rating schemes and potential business benefits from sustainability initiatives, this paper presents a brief summary of an online survey of industry that identifies how rating scheme themes and business benefits relate. This allows for a case to be built demonstrating which sustainability themes offer particular business benefits.

Sustainability in infrastructure asset management

The expectation to integrate sustainability aspects (social, environmental, and economic success) into the design, delivery, and operation of infrastructure assets is growing rapidly and globally. There are now several tools and frameworks available to benchmark and measure sustainable performance of infrastructure projects and assets. This paper briefly describes the infrastructure sustainability (IS) rating tool developed by the Australian Green Infrastructure Council (AGIC) that was launched in February 2012. This tool evaluates sustainability initiatives and potential environmental, social, and economic impacts of infrastructure projects and assets. The rating tool provides the following benefits to industry: a common national language for sustainability; a vehicle for consistent application and evaluation of sustainability in tendering processes; assists in scoping whole-of-life sustainability risks, enabling smarter solutions that reduce risks and costs; fosters resource efficiency and waste reduction, reducing costs; fosters innovation and continuous improvement in sustainability outcomes; and builds an organization’s credentials and reputation in its approach to sustainability. The infrastructure types covered by this tool include transport, energy, water, and communication. The key themes of sustainability evaluation will be briefly presented in this paper, and they include management and governance; use of resources; emissions, pollution, and waste; ecology; people and place; and innovation.

Remaining useful life prediction of rotating equipment using covariate-based hazard models : industry applications

The ability to estimate the expected Remaining Useful Life (RUL) is critical to reduce maintenance costs, operational downtime and safety hazards. In most industries, reliability analysis is based on the Reliability Centred Maintenance (RCM) and lifetime distribution models. In these models, the lifetime of an asset is estimated using failure time data; however, statistically sufficient failure time data are often difficult to attain in practice due to the fixed time-based replacement and the small population of identical assets. When condition indicator data are available in addition to failure time data, one of the alternate approaches to the traditional reliability models is the Condition-Based Maintenance (CBM). The covariate-based hazard modelling is one of CBM approaches. There are a number of covariate-based hazard models; however, little study has been conducted to evaluate the performance of these models in asset life prediction using various condition indicators and data availability. This paper reviews two covariate-based hazard models, Proportional Hazard Model (PHM) and Proportional Covariate Model (PCM). To assess these models’ performance, the expected RUL is compared to the actual RUL. Outcomes demonstrate that both models achieve convincingly good results in RUL prediction; however, PCM has smaller absolute prediction error. In addition, PHM shows over-smoothing tendency compared to PCM in sudden changes of condition data. Moreover, the case studies show PCM is not being biased in the case of small sample size.

A meta-analysis of 87,040 individuals identifies 23 new susceptibility loci for prostate cancer

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified 76 variants associated with prostate cancer risk predominantly in populations of European ancestry. To identify additional susceptibility loci for this common cancer, we conducted a meta-analysis of > 10 million SNPs in 43,303 prostate cancer cases and 43,737 controls from studies in populations of European, African, Japanese and Latino ancestry. Twenty-three new susceptibility loci were identified at association P < 5 × 10(-8); 15 variants were identified among men of European ancestry, 7 were identified in multi-ancestry analyses and 1 was associated with early-onset prostate cancer. These 23 variants, in combination with known prostate cancer risk variants, explain 33% of the familial risk for this disease in European-ancestry populations. These findings provide new regions for investigation into the pathogenesis of prostate cancer and demonstrate the usefulness of combining ancestrally diverse populations to discover risk loci for disease.

A LIN inspired optical bus for signal isolation in multilevel or modular power electronic converters

Proposed in this paper is a low-cost, half-duplex optical communication bus for control signal isolation in modular or multilevel power electronic converters. The concept is inspired by the Local Interconnect Network (LIN) serial network protocol as used in the automotive industry. The proposed communications bus utilises readily available optical transceivers and is suitable for use with low-cost microcontrollers for distributed control of multilevel converters. As a signal isolation concept, the proposed optical bus enables very high cell count modular multilevel cascaded converters (MMCCs) for high-bandwidth, high-voltage and high-power applications. Prototype hardware is developed and the optical bus concept is validated experimentally in a 33-level MMCC converter operating at 120 Vrms and 60 Hz.

A decision support framework for prioritization of engineering asset management activities under uncertainty

Engineers and asset managers must often make decisions on how to best allocate limited resources amongst different interrelated activities, including repair, renewal, inspection, and procurement of new assets. The presence of project interdependencies and the lack of sufficient information on the true value of an activity often produce complex problems and leave the decision maker guessing about the quality and robustness of their decision. In this paper, a decision support framework for uncertain interrelated activities is presented. The framework employs a methodology for multi-criteria ranking in the presence of uncertainty, detailing the effect that uncertain valuations may have on the priority of a particular activity. The framework employs employing semi-quantitative risk measures that can be tailored to an organisation and enable a transparent and simple-to-use uncertainty specification by the decision maker. The framework is then demonstrated on a real world project set from a major Australian utility provider.

Novel risk loci for rheumatoid arthritis in Han Chinese and congruence with risk variants in Europeans

Objective To investigate differences in genetic risk factors for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in Han Chinese as compared with Europeans. Methods A genome-wide association study was conducted in China with 952 patients and 943 controls, and 32 variants were followed up in 2,132 patients and 2,553 controls. A transpopulation meta-analysis with results from a large European RA study was also performed to compare the genetic architecture across the 2 ethnic remote populations. Results Three non-major histocompatibility complex (non-MHC) loci were identified at the genome-wide significance level, the effect sizes of which were larger in anti-citrullinated protein antibody (ACPA)-positive patients than in ACPA-negative patients. These included 2 novel variants, rs12617656, located in an intron of DPP4 (odds ratio [OR] 1.56, P = 1.6 × 10 -21), and rs12379034, located in the coding region of CDK5RAP2 (OR 1.49, P = 1.1 × 10-16), as well as a variant at the known CCR6 locus, rs1854853 (OR 0.71, P = 6.5 × 10-15). The analysis of ACPA-positive patients versus ACPA-negative patients revealed that rs12617656 at the DPP4 locus showed a strong interaction effect with ACPAs (P = 5.3 × 10-18), and such an interaction was also observed for rs7748270 at the MHC locus (P = 5.9 × 10-8). The transpopulation meta-analysis showed genome-wide overlap and enrichment in association signals across the 2 populations, as confirmed by prediction analysis. Conclusion This study has expanded the list of alleles that confer risk of RA, provided new insight into the pathogenesis of RA, and added empirical evidence to the emerging polygenic nature of complex trait variation driven by common genetic variants. Copyright © 2014 by the American College of Rheumatology.

Synthesis and luminescent properties of star-burst D-Pi-A compounds based on 1,3,5-triazine core and carbazole end-capped phenylene ethynylene arms

Two new star-burst compounds based on 1,3,5-triazine core and carbazole end-capped phenylene ethynylene arms (1a and 1b) were synthesized and characterized. Their photophysical properties were investigated systematically via spectroscopic and theoretical methods. Both compounds exhibit strong 1π–π⁎ transitions in the UV region and intense 1π–π⁎/intramolecular charge transfer (1ICT) absorption bands in the UV–vis region. Introducing the carbazole end-capped phenylene ethynylene arm on the 1,3,5-triazine core causes a slight bathochromic shift and enhanced molar extinction coefficient of the 1π–π⁎/1ICT transition band. Both compounds are emissive in solution at room temperature and 77 K, which exhibit pronounced positive solvatochromic effect. The emitting state could be ascribed to 1ICT state in more polar solvent, and 1π–π⁎ state in low-polarity solvent. The high emission quantum yields (Φem=0.90~1.0) of 1a and 1b (in hexane and toluene) make them potential candidates as efficient light-emitting materials. The spectroscopic studies and theoretical calculations indicate that the photophysical properties of these compounds can be tuned by the carbazole end-capped phenylene ethynylene arm, which would also be useful for rational design of photofunctional materials.

Data driven modeling for power transformer lifespan evaluation

Large sized power transformers are important parts of the power supply chain. These very critical networks of engineering assets are an essential base of a nation’s energy resource infrastructure. This research identifies the key factors influencing transformer normal operating conditions and predicts the asset management lifespan. Engineering asset research has developed few lifespan forecasting methods combining real-time monitoring solutions for transformer maintenance and replacement. Utilizing the rich data source from a remote terminal unit (RTU) system for sensor-data driven analysis, this research develops an innovative real-time lifespan forecasting approach applying logistic regression based on the Weibull distribution. The methodology and the implementation prototype are verified using a data series from 161 kV transformers to evaluate the efficiency and accuracy for energy sector applications. The asset stakeholders and suppliers significantly benefit from the real-time power transformer lifespan evaluation for maintenance and replacement decision support.

Mortality reduction following the air pollution control measures during the 2010 Asian Games

Though increased particulate air pollution has been consistently associated with elevated mortality, evidence regarding whether diminished particulate air pollution would lead to mortality reduction is limited. Citywide air pollution mitigation program during the 2010 Asian Games in Guangzhou, China, provided such an opportunity. Daily mortality from non-accidental, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases was compared for 51 intervention days (November 1–December 21) in 2010 with the same calendar date of baseline years (2006–2009 and 2011). Relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were estimated using a time series Poisson model, adjusting for day of week, public holidays, daily mean temperature and relative humidity. Daily PM10 (particle with aerodynamic diameter less than 10 μm) decreased from 88.64 μg/m3 during the baseline period to 80.61 μg/m3 during the Asian Games period. Other measured air pollutants and weather variables did not differ substantially. Daily mortality from non-accidental, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases decreased from 32, 11 and 6 during the baseline period to 25, 8 and 5 during the Games period, the corresponding RR for the Games period compared with the baseline period was 0.79 (95% CI: 0.73–0.86), 0.77 (95% CI: 0.66–0.89) and 0.68 (95% CI: 0.57–0.80), respectively. No significant decreases were observed in other months of 2010 in Guangzhou and intervention period in two control cities. This finding supports the efforts to reduce air pollution and improve public health through transportation restriction and industrial emission control.

Gde moi kryl'ja? Analiz fil'ma Alekseja Balabanova »Brat»

Tutkielma on analyysi Aleksej Balabanovin ohjaamasta elokuvasta Brat (1997). Ensimmäisessä osassa tarkastellaan Brat-elokuvaa satuna jäsentämällä sen henkilöhahmoja ja rakennetta Vladimir Proppin satujen morfologisen analyysin pohjalta. Tärkeimmille henkilöhahmoille on mahdollista löytää vastineet satujen perushahmoista, mutta elokuvasta löytyy näille hahmoille myös erityisiä valheellisia variantteja, selkeimpänä esimerkkinä veljespari Danila – sankari ja Vitja – valheellinen sankari. Myös juonenkulusta on jäsennettävissä sekä varsinainen, että valheellinen juonenkulku: varsinainen juonenkulku käsittelee päähenkilön suhdetta veljeensä, sekä heidän yhteiseen viholliseensa, valheellinen juonenkulku puolestaan päähenkilön suhdetta tarinan potentiaaliseen sankarittareen. Lisäksi elokuvasta löytyy myös kolmas, vaihtoehtoinen juonenkulku, joka liittyy musiikin funktioon elokuvassa. Toisessa osassa analysoidaan päähenkilön suhdetta muihin henkilöhahmoihin sekä ympäröivään yhteiskuntaan käsitteiden horisontaali ja vertikaali avulla. Nämä käsitteet osittain limittyvät Vladimir Papernyin teoriaan Kul’tura 2. Analyysin lähtökohtana on, että elokuvan toiminta käynnistyy sankarin pyrkimyksestä löytää oma viiteryhmänsä ja sitä kautta identiteettinsä. Isän menetyksestä, niin konkreettisesti perheen kuin symbolisesti yhteiskunnan tasolla, seuraa horisontaalin ja vertikaalin oppositio; perheyhteisön ja yhteiskunnan hajoaminen. Päähenkilön kohtaamat henkilöhahmot voidaan jakaa vertikaali- ja horisontaalivariantteihin sen mukaan, mitä arvoja nämä edustavat. Tässä yhteydessä käsitellään myös sitä, miten veljeyteen ja kansallisuuten pohjautuvat identiteetinmuodostamiskeinot epäonnistuvat, sekä miten horisontaalius ja vertikaalius, auktoriteetin ja veljeyden teemat, toteutuvat elokuvan kuvakompositioissa. Kolmannessa osassa tarkastellaan elokuvan tapahtumapaikkoja ja minkälaisia oppositioita ne muodostavat. Konkreettisesti edustettujen oppositioiden maaseutu – kaupunki, sekä Pietari – Moskova lisäksi asettuvat vastakkain myös rikollisten ja tavallisten ihmisten Pietari, ulko- ja sisätilat, sekä yleinen ja yksityinen tila. Pietarin kuvaamiseen käytetyillä oppositioilla on selviä yhtymäkohtia Vladimir Toporovin esittämään pietarilaistekstien traditioon. Viimeisessä osassa käsitellään musiikin diegeettistä funktiota Bratissa. Se toimii elokuvassa vaihtoehtoisena juonenkulkuna, konkreettisena viiteryhmän etsimisen ja identiteetin muodostamisen keinona, sekä omana, erillisenä ’fantastisena’ tilanaan. Toiminta-/rikoselokuva oli vielä 1990-luvulla suhteellisen vieras genre venäläisessä elokuvassa. Tämä analyysi osoittaa, miten tiiviisti Brat kuitenkin asettuu venäläisen kulttuurin kontekstiin. Se käy dialogia niin venäläisen kansansatuperinteen, kuin 1800-luvun pietarilaistekstien kanssa, ja soveltuu tarkasteltavaksi myös kahden venäläisen kulttuurin vaihtelun teoriaa vasten. Vaikka Bratilla ei suoria elokuvallisia edeltäjiä Venäjällä olekaan, sen teemat ovat perivenäläisiä.