Variabilidade do regime de monções sobre o Brasil: o clima presente e projeções para um cenário com 2xCO2 usando o modelo MIROC

Este trabalho investiga a variabilidade do Sistema de Monções da América do Sul (SMAS) sobre o Brasil com particular interesse na região do cerrado brasileiro. O início, final e total de precipitação durante as monções de verão são examinados utilizando estimativas de precipitação por satélite (pêntadas) do Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) entre 1979-2004. Analogamente, as características do regime de monção simuladas pelo modelo climático global acoplado MIROC (Model for interdisciplinary Research on Climate) do IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change) são examinadas em dois cenários distintos: o clima do século XX (1981-2000) e o clima em uma condição com o dobro da concentração atual de CO2 (2xCO2) na atmosfera (2061-2080). Mostra-se que a variabilidade espacial do início da monção de verão sobre o cerrado na simulação do clima do século XX pelo MIROC corresponde bem às observações. Além disso, há indicação de uma mudança das caudas da distribuição sazonal da precipitação no Cerrado para um cenário com 2xCO2, comparativamente com o clima presente. Este resultado sugere uma mudança na probabilidade de ocorrência de eventos extremos (secos ou úmidos) em um cenário com 2xCO2 sobre o cerrado, o que de acordo com o MIROC, indica uma maior exposição da região às conseqüências de possíveis mudanças climáticas resultantes do aumento de gases de efeito estufa.

Transport, storage and mobilization of nitrogen by trees and shrubs in the wet/dry tropics of northern Australia

Xylem sap from woody species in the wet/dry tropics of northern Australia was analyzed for N compounds. At the peak of the dry season, arginine was the main N compound in sap of most species of woodlands and deciduous monsoon forest. In the wet season, a marked change occurred with amides becoming the main sap N constituents of most species. Species from an evergreen monsoon forest, with a permanent water source, transported amides in the dry season. In the dry season, nitrate accounted for 7 and 12% of total xylem sap N in species of deciduous and evergreen monsoon forests, respectively In the wet season, the proportion of N present as nitrate increased to 22% in deciduous monsoon forest species. These results suggest that N is taken up and assimilated mainly in the wet season and that this newly assimilated N is mostly transported as amide-N (woodland species, monsoon forest species) and nitrate (monsoon forest species). Arginine is the form in which stored N is remobilized and transported by woodland and deciduous monsoon forest species in the dry season. Several proteins, which may represent bark storage proteins, were detected in inner bark tissue from a range of trees in the dry season, indicating that, although N uptake appears to be limited in the dry season, the many tree and shrub species that produce flowers, fruit or leaves in the dry season use stored N to support growth. Nitrogen characteristics of the studied species are discussed in relation to the tropical environment.

Nitrogen relations of natural and disturbed plant communities in tropical Australia

Nitrogen relations of natural and disturbed tropical plant communities in northern Australia (Kakadu National Park) were studied. Plant and soil N characteristics suggested that differences in N source utilisation occur at community and species level. Leaf and xylem sap N concentrations of plants in different communities were correlated with the availability of inorganic soil N (NH4+ and NO3-). In general, rates of leaf NO3- assimilation were low. Even in communities with a higher N status, including deciduous monsoon forest, disturbed wetland, and a revegetated mine waste rock dump, levels of leaf nitrate reductase, xylem and leaf NO3 levels were considerably lower than those that have been reported for eutrophic communities. Although NO3- assimilation in escarpment and eucalypt woodlands, and wetland, was generally low, within these communities there was a suite of species that exhibited a greater capacity for NO3- assimilation. These high-NO3- species were mainly annuals, resprouting herbs or deciduous trees that had leaves with high N contents. Ficus, a high-NO3- species, was associated with soil exhibiting higher rates of net mineralisation and net nitrification. Low-NO3- species were evergreen perennials with low leaf N concentrations. A third group of plants, which assimilated NO3- (albeit at lower rates than the high-NO3- species), and had high-N leaves, were leguminous species. Acacia species, common in woodlands, had the highest leaf N contents of all woody species. Acacia species appeared to have the greatest potential to utilise the entire spectrum of available N sources. This versatility in N source utilisation may be important in relation to their high tissue N status and comparatively short life cycle. Differences in N utilisation are discussed in the context of species life strategies and mycorrhizal associations.

Causes and consequences of long-term climatic variability on the Australian continent

1. Ice-volume forced glacial-interglacial cyclicity is the major cause of global climate variation within the late Quaternary period. Within the Australian region, this variation is expressed predominantly as oscillations in moisture availability. Glacial periods were substantially drier than today with restricted distribution of mesic plant communities, shallow or ephemeral water bodies and extensive aeolian dune activity. 2. Superimposed on this cyclicity in Australia is a trend towards drier and/or more variable climates within the last 350 000 years. This trend may have been initiated by changes in atmospheric and ocean circulation resulting from Australia's continued movement into the Southeast Asian region and involving the onset or intensification of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation system and a reduction in summer monsoon activity. 3. Increased biomass burning, stemming originally from increased climatic variability and later enhanced by activities of indigenous people, resulted in a more open and sclerophyllous vegetation, increased salinity and a further reduction in water availability. 4. Past records combined with recent observations suggest that the degree of environmental variability will increase and the drying trend will be enhanced in the foreseeable future, regardless of the extent or nature of human intervention.

Late Quaternary Milankovitch-scale climatic change and variability and its impact on monsoonal Australasia

Four pollen and charcoal records derived from marine cores around the northern perimeter of Australia are examined to provide a regional picture of patterns, causes and impacts of climate change over the last 100-300 ka. The availability of radiocarbon dates and oxygen isotope records for the cores provides primary chronological control. Spectral analysis of components of these records demonstrates an overall importance of Milankovitch frequencies with clear glacial-interglacial cyclicity dominated by variation in precipitation. In addition, a number of pollen taxa, as well as charcoal particles, exhibit a 30 ka frequency that is considered, from its relationship with biomass burning and with results of past modelling, to reflect changes in the intensity of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability. Pollen components of all records show a decline, frequently stepwise, in more fire-sensitive vegetation and its replacement with more fire-tolerant vegetation. There is some evidence that this trend is linked to an onset or general increase in ENSO activity and perhaps also to variation in monsoon activity dating from about 300 ka BP that was caused by changes to oceanic circulation within the Indonesian region. The trend may have accelerated within the last 45 ka due to burning by indigenous people. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Millennial and orbital variations of El Nino/Southern Oscillation and high-latitude climate in the last glacial period

The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is believed to have operated continuously over the last glacial interglacial cycle(1). ENSO variability has been suggested to be linked to millennial-scale oscillations in North Atlantic climate during that time(2,3), but the proposals disagree on whether increased frequency of El Nino events, the warm phase of ENSO, was linked to North Atlantic warm or cold periods. Here we present a high-resolution record of surface moisture, based on the degree of peat humification and the ratio of sedges to grass, from northern Queensland, Australia, covering the past 45,000 yr. We observe millennial-scale dry periods, indicating periods of frequent El Nino events ( summer precipitation declines in El Nino years in northeastern Australia). We find that these dry periods are correlated to the Dansgaard - Oeschger events - millennial-scale warm events in the North Atlantic climate record - although no direct atmospheric connection from the North Atlantic to our site can be invoked. Additionally, we find climatic cycles at a semiprecessional timescale (, 11,900 yr). We suggest that climate variations in the tropical Pacific Ocean on millennial as well as orbital timescales, which determined precipitation in northeastern Australia, also exerted an influence on North Atlantic climate through atmospheric and oceanic teleconnections.

History of vegetation and habitat change in the Austral-Asian region

Over 1000 marine and terrestrial pollen diagrams and Some hundreds of vertebrate faunal sequences have been studied in the Austral-Asian region bisected by the PEPII transect, from the Russian arctic extending south through east Asia, Indochina, southern Asia, insular Southeast Asia (Sunda), Melanesia, Australasia (Sahul) and the western south Pacific. The majority of these records are Holocene but sufficient data exist to allow the reconstruction of the changing biomes over at least the past 200,000 years. The PEPII transect is free of the effects of large northern ice caps yet exhibits vegetational change in glacial cycles of a similar scale to North America. Major processes that can be discerned are the response of tropical forests in both lowlands and uplands to glacial cycles, the expansion of humid vegetation at the Pleistocene-Holocene transition and the change in faunal and vegetational controls as humans occupy the region. There is evidence for major changes in the intensity of monsoon and El Nino-Southern oscillation variability both on glacial-interglacial and longer time scales with much of the region experiencing a long-term trend towards more variable and/or drier climatic conditions. Temperature variation is most marked in high latitudes and high altitudes with precipitation providing the major climate control in lower latitude, lowland areas. At least some boundary shifts may be the response of vegetation to changing CO2 levels in the atmosphere. Numerous questions of detail remain, however, and current resolution is too coarse to examine the degree of synchroneity of millennial scale change along the transect. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved.

Drosophilidae (Diptera) of Australia's Northern Territory: Ecology and biogeography

The drosophilid fauna is well documented in eastern Australia but is poorly known in other parts of the continent. This paper summarises what is known of this fauna in the Northern Territory (NT), and includes results from banana trapping in the humid and arid zones. The 42 recorded species include species that breed in fruit, fungi and/or flowers, and a larval predator of scale insects. Drosophilids occur in all three major climate zones (humid, semiarid and arid) but predominate in the humid zone. Banana-attracted species in the humid zone (wet-dry tropics) were common in all sampled habitats: urban, rainforest and open woodland. They included predominantly urban and/or rainforest species. Of the species collected in open woodland, some are likely to be breeding there, whereas others may have been intercepted during movement across the area. The semiarid fauna is a depauperate version of that found in the humid region. Only three species have been recorded in the arid region: an endemic arid specialist, and two cosmopolitan species (D. simulans and D. melanogaster ) in urban Alice Springs. Overall, the NT drosophilid fauna represents a depauperate version of that found in eastern Australia, probably because of climatic factors and natural barriers to range expansion. There is little evidence of regional endemism, with probably only one (and at most three) species endemic to the NT, and no evidence of independent, natural dispersion from nearby Indonesia.

Speleothem U-series dating of semi-synchronous climate oscillations during the last deglaciation

Evidence for nearly synchronous climate oscillations during the last deglaciation has been found throughout the Northern Hemisphere but few records are based on independent time scales of calendar years. We present a rare uranium-series dated oxygen-carbon isotope record for a speleothem from Tangshan Cave, China, which demonstrates that abrupt deglacial climatic oscillations from 16 800 to 10 500 yr BP are semi-synchronous with those found in Greenland ice core records. Relatively rapid shifts in speleothem oxygen isotope ratios demonstrate that the intensity of the East Asian monsoon switched in parallel with the abrupt transitions separating the Bolling-Allerod, Younger Dryas, and pre-Boreal climatic reversals. However, the dated isotopic transitions appear to have lasted longer. Our results demonstrate the dominant role of atmospheric teleconnections in the rapid propagation of deglacial climatic signals on a hemispheric scale, and highlight the importance of U-series dated speleothems in the timing and characterization of abrupt climate change. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Factors influencing predation of the Waterbugs Sphaerodema annulatum (Fab.) and S. rusticum (Fab.) on the Disease Transmitting Snail Lymnaea (Radix) luteola (Lamarck)

Variations in the rate of predation of the waterbugs Sphaerodema annulatum and S. rusticum on the snails Lymnaea (Radix) luteola have been noted in respect to the morphs of the waterbugs, size of the prey individuals, densities of prey and predators, temperature and surface area of the waterbody concerned and the seasons. Consumption rate was highest (7.2 and 2.2 individuals per day per individual of S. annulatum and S. rusticum, respectively) in prereproductive ages of the waterbugs. This was followed by a gradual decline with the increase in age of the predators. The consumption rate was gradually higher with the increase of temperature from 20 °C to 35 °C. The bugs failed to survive beyond 35 days at 35 °C. Though the bugs prey upon the snails of all sizes preference for 6.5 ÷ 4.5 mm to 8 ÷ 5 mm individuals by S. annulatum and for 5 ÷ 3 mm to 6.5 ÷ 4.5 mm individuals belonged to 3 ÷ 2 - 4 ÷ 3 mm size group maximum when supplied separately. The rate of predation gradually declined with the rise of predator's desity irrespective of waterbug species. Predation rate increased with increasing prey density. This was level off when the prey snails were 1100 and 700 in number for S. annulatum and S. rusticum respectively. An adult S. annulatum and S. rusticum consumed 5.04, 3.7, 1.43 and 3.36, 2.49, 1.04 snails per day respectively in summer, monsoon and winter.

7

Climate change data and predictions for the Himalayas are very sparse and uncertain, characterized by a ?Himalayan data gap? and difficulties in predicting changes due to topographic complexity. A few reliable studies and climate change models for Nepal predict considerable changes: shorter monsoon seasons, more intensive rainfall patterns, higher temperatures, and drought. These predictions are confirmed by farmers who claim that temperatures have been increasing for the past decade and wonder why the rains have ?gone mad.? The number of hazard events, notably droughts, floods, and landslides are increasing and now account for approximately 100 deaths in Nepal annually. Other effects are drinking water shortages and shifting agricultural patterns, with many communities struggling to meet basic food security before climatic conditions started changing. The aim of this paper is to examine existing gaps between current climate models and the realities of local development planning through a case study on flood risk and drinking water management for the Municipality of Dharan in Eastern Nepal. This example highlights current challenges facing local-level governments, namely, flood and landslide mitigation, providing basic amenities ? especially an urgent lack of drinking water during the dry season ? poor local planning capacities, and limited resources. In this context, the challenge for Nepal will be to simultaneously address increasing risks caused by hazard events alongside the omnipresent food security and drinking water issues in both urban and rural areas. Local planning is needed that integrates rural development and disaster risk reduction (DRR) with knowledge about climate change considerations. The paper concludes with a critical analysis of climate change modeling and the gap between scientific data and low-tech and low capacities of local planners to access or implement adequate adaptation measures. Recommendations include the need to bridge gaps between scientific models, the local political reality and local information needs.

Variation of the Chlorophyll a Related to Sea Surface Temperature, Wind and Geostrophic Currents in the Cape Verde Region Using Satellite Data

We present a comparative analysis of satellite derived climatologies in the Cape Verde region (CV). In order to establish chlorophyll a variability, in relation to other oceanographic phenomena, a set of, relatively long (from five to eight years), time series of chlorophyll a, sea surface temperature, wind and geostrophic currents, were ensembled for the Eastern Central Atlantic (ECA). We studied seasonal and inter-annual variability of phytoplankton concentration, in relation to the rest of the variables, with a special focus in CV. We compared the situation within the archipelago with those of the surrounding marine environments, such as the North West African Upwelling (NWAU), North Atlantic Subtropical Gyre (NASTG), North Equatorial Counter Current (NECC) and Guinea Dome (GD). At the seasonal scale, CV region behaves partly as the surrounding areas, nevertheless, some autochthonous features were also found. The maximum peak of the pigment having a positive correlation with temperature is found at the end of the year for all the points in the archipelago; a less remarkable rise with negative correlation is also detected in February for points CV2 and CV4. This is behavior that none of the surrounding environments have shown. This enrichment was found to be preceded by a drastic drop in wind intensity (SW Monsoon) during summer months. The inter-annual analysis shows a tendency for decreasing of the chlorophyll a concentration.

Variation of the Chlorophyll a Related to Sea Surface Temperature, Wind and Geostrophic Currents in the Cape Verde Region Using Satellite Data

We present a comparative analysis of satellite derived climatologies in the Cape Verde region (CV). In order to establish chlorophyll a variability, in relation to other oceanographic phenomena, a set of, relatively long (from five to eight years), time series of chlorophyll a, sea surface temperature, wind and geostrophic currents, were ensembled for the Eastern Central Atlantic (ECA). We studied seasonal and inter-annual variability of phytoplankton concentration, in relation to the rest of the variables, with a special focus in CV. We compared the situation within the archipelago with those of the surrounding marine environments, such as the North West African Upwelling (NWAU), North Atlantic Subtropical Gyre (NASTG), North Equatorial Counter Current (NECC) and Guinea Dome (GD). At the seasonal scale, CV region behaves partly as the surrounding areas, nevertheless, some autochthonous features were also found. The maximum peak of the pigment having a positive correlation with temperature is found at the end of the year for all the points in the archipelago; a less remarkable rise with negative correlation is also detected in February for points CV2 and CV4. This is behavior that none of the surrounding environments have shown. This enrichment was found to be preceded by a drastic drop in wind intensity (SW Monsoon) during summer months. The inter-annual analysis shows a tendency for decreasing of the chlorophyll a concentration.

Paleobiology and skeletochronology of Jurassic dinosaurs: implications from the histology and oxygen isotope compositions of bones

Fossil biogenic phosphate of fast-growing primary bone tissue of dinosaurs can preserve a histologic and isotopic time-series of annual seasonality in temperature variations, similar to tooth enamel and other accretionary skeletal phases such as corals or wood. On two bone fragments from sympatric dinosaurs with different histologic patterns of bone growth, high-resolution oxygen isotope profiles were analyzed along the radial direction of bone growth. The investigated specimens are from the Jurassic Shishugou Formation in the Junggar Basin, NW China and have distinct patterns of compositional variation. A fibrolamellar dinosaur bone with multiple lines of arrested growth (LAGs) and periodic growth cycles of decreasing bone laminae thickness displays a cyclic intra-bone variation in delta(18)O values of about 2parts per thousand corresponding with the LAGs. These growth cycles in fast-growing fibrolamellar bone provide evidence for seasonal growth of dinosaurs in lower latitudes ( similar to 45degreesN), possibly influenced by a monsoon-type paleoclimate. Seasonal changes in temperature and water supply are consistent with the oxygen isotope composition measured in dinosaur bone phosphate as well as with growth rings in contemporaneous fossil conifer wood from the same locality. In contrast, a plexiform sympatric sauropod bone displays continuous growth, free of LAGs and has a lower intra-bone variation of less than or equal to 0.8parts per thousand. Differences in bone histology are also reflected in the oxygen isotopic composition and its intra-bone variability, indicating different physiological responses to external climatic stress between sympatric dinosaur species. Seasonal intra-bone oxygen isotope variations combined with bone histology may thus yield new insights into species-specific response to climatic stress and its influence on dinosaur growth, formation of growth marks, growth rates, as welt as dinosaur thermophysiology. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

The 2005 Pakistan earthquake revisited: Methods for integrated landslide assessment

Five years after the 2005 Pakistan earthquake that triggered multiple mass movements, landslides continue to pose a threat to the population of Azad Kashmir, especially during heavy monsoon rains. The thousands of landslides that were triggered by the 7.6 magnitude earthquake in 2005 were not just due to a natural phenomenon but largely induced by human activities, namely, road building, grazing, and deforestation. The damage caused by the landslides in the study area (381 km2) is estimated at 3.6 times the annual public works budget of Azad Kashmir for 2005 of US$ 1 million. In addition to human suffering, this cost constitutes a significant economic setback to the region that could have been reduced through improved land use and risk management. This article describes interdisciplinary research conducted 18 months after the earthquake to provide a more systemic approach to understanding risks posed by landslides, including the physical, environmental, and human contexts. The goal of this research is twofold: to present empirical data on the social, geological, and environmental contexts in which widespread landslides occurred following the 2005 earthquake; and, second, to describe straightforward methods that can be used for integrated landslide risk assessments in data-poor environments. The article analyzes limitations of the methodologies and challenges for conducting interdisciplinary research that integrates both social and physical data. This research concludes that reducing landslide risk is ultimately a management issue, based in land use decisions and governance.