Estimation of infection rate in epidemic models with multiple populations

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Matemática e Aplicações Especialização em Actuariado, Estatística e Investigação Operacional

Estimation Models for the adoption and use of information technology: internet-related technologies at firm level in the Portuguese and European context

Dissertação apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Doutor em Gestão de Informação

Reliable link quality estimation in low-power wireless networks and its impact on tree-routing

Radio link quality estimation is essential for protocols and mechanisms such as routing, mobility management and localization, particularly for low-power wireless networks such as wireless sensor networks. Commodity Link Quality Estimators (LQEs), e.g. PRR, RNP, ETX, four-bit and RSSI, can only provide a partial characterization of links as they ignore several link properties such as channel quality and stability. In this paper, we propose F-LQE (Fuzzy Link Quality Estimator, a holistic metric that estimates link quality on the basis of four link quality properties—packet delivery, asymmetry, stability, and channel quality—that are expressed and combined using Fuzzy Logic. We demonstrate through an extensive experimental analysis that F-LQE is more reliable than existing estimators (e.g., PRR, WMEWMA, ETX, RNP, and four-bit) as it provides a finer grain link classification. It is also more stable as it has lower coefficient of variation of link estimates. Importantly, we evaluate the impact of F-LQE on the performance of tree routing, specifically the CTP (Collection Tree Protocol). For this purpose, we adapted F-LQE to build a new routing metric for CTP, which we dubbed as F-LQE/RM. Extensive experimental results obtained with state-of-the-art widely used test-beds show that F-LQE/RM improves significantly CTP routing performance over four-bit (the default LQE of CTP) and ETX (another popular LQE). F-LQE/RM improves the end-to-end packet delivery by up to 16%, reduces the number of packet retransmissions by up to 32%, reduces the Hop count by up to 4%, and improves the topology stability by up to 47%.

An Extension of Estimation of Domain of Attraction for Fractional Order Linear System Subject to Saturation Control

This paper employs the Lyapunov direct method for the stability analysis of fractional order linear systems subject to input saturation. A new stability condition based on saturation function is adopted for estimating the domain of attraction via ellipsoid approach. To further improve this estimation, the auxiliary feedback is also supported by the concept of stability region. The advantages of the proposed method are twofold: (1) it is straightforward to handle the problem both in analysis and design because of using Lyapunov method, (2) the estimation leads to less conservative results. A numerical example illustrates the feasibility of the proposed method.

On the Estimation of the Short-Circuit Impedance of Power Transformers Using Fractional Order Calculus

This paper reports investigation on the estimation of the short circuit impedance of power transformers, using fractional order calculus to analytically study the influence of the diffusion phenomena in the windings. The aim is to better characterize the medium frequency range behavior of leakage inductances of power transformer models, which include terms to represent the magnetic field diffusion process in the windings. Comparisons between calculated and measured values are shown and discussed.

6D Visual Odometry with Dense Probabilistic Egomotion Estimation

Proceedings of the International Conference on Computer Vision Theory and Applications, 361-365, 2013, Barcelona, Spain

A Clinical Support System Based on Quality of Life Estimation

Quality of life is a concept influenced by social, economic, psychological, spiritual or medical state factors. More specifically, the perceived quality of an individual's daily life is an assessment of their well-being or lack of it. In this context, information technologies may help on the management of services for healthcare of chronic patients such as estimating the patient quality of life and helping the medical staff to take appropriate measures to increase each patient quality of life. This paper describes a Quality of Life estimation system developed using information technologies and the application of data mining algorithms to access the information of clinical data of patients with cancer from Otorhinolaryngology and Head and Neck services of an oncology institution. The system was evaluated with a sample composed of 3013 patients. The results achieved show that there are variables that may be significant predictors for the Quality of Life of the patient: years of smoking (p value 0.049) and size of the tumor (p value < 0.001). In order to assign the variables to the classification of the quality of life the best accuracy was obtained by applying the John Platt's sequential minimal optimization algorithm for training a support vector classifier. In conclusion data mining techniques allow having access to patients additional information helping the physicians to be able to know the quality of life and produce a well-informed clinical decision.

Cohesive law estimation of adhesive joints in mode II condition

The adhesive bonding technique enables both weight and complexity reduction in structures that require some joining technique to be used on account of fabrication/component shape issues. Because of this, adhesive bonding is also one of the main repair methods for metal and composite structures by the strap and scarf configurations. The availability of strength prediction techniques for adhesive joints is essential for their generalized application and it can rely on different approaches, such as mechanics of materials, conventional fracture mechanics or damage mechanics. These two last techniques depend on the measurement of the fracture toughness (GC) of materials. Within the framework of damage mechanics, a valid option is the use of Cohesive Zone Modelling (CZM) coupled with Finite Element (FE) analyses. In this work, CZM laws for adhesive joints considering three adhesives with varying ductility were estimated. The End-Notched Flexure (ENF) test geometry was selected based on overall test simplicity and results accuracy. The adhesives Araldite® AV138, Araldite® 2015 and Sikaforce® 7752 were studied between high-strength aluminium adherends. Estimation of the CZM laws was carried out by an inverse methodology based on a curve fitting procedure, which enabled a precise estimation of the adhesive joints’ behaviour. The work allowed to conclude that a unique set of shear fracture toughness (GIIC) and shear cohesive strength (ts0) exists for each specimen that accurately reproduces the adhesive layer’ behaviour. With this information, the accurate strength prediction of adhesive joints in shear is made possible by CZM.

Longshore Transport Estimation on Ofir Beach in Northwest Portugal: Sand-Tracer Experiment

This work aims to shed some light on longshore sediment transport (LST) in the highly energetic northwest coast of Portugal. Data achieved through a sand-tracer experiment are compared with data obtained from the original and the new re-evaluated longshore sediment transport formulas (USACE Waterways Experiment Station’s Coastal Engineering and Research Center, Kamphuis, and Bayram bulk formulas) to assess their performance. The field experiment with dyed sand was held at Ofir Beach during one tidal cycle under medium wave-energy conditions. Local hydrodynamic conditions and beach topography were recorded. The tracer was driven southward in response to the local swell and wind- and wave-induced currents (Hsb=0.75mHsb=0.75m, Tp=11.5sTp=11.5s, θb=8−12°θb=8−12°). The LST was estimated by using a linear sediment transport flux approach. The obtained value (2.3×10−3m3⋅s−12.3×10−3m3⋅s−1) approached the estimation provided by the original Bayram formula (2.5×10−3m3⋅s−12.5×10−3m3⋅s−1). The other formulas overestimated the transport, but the estimations resulting from the new re-evaluated formulas also yield approximate results. Therefore, the results of this work indicated that the Bayram formula may give satisfactory results for predicting the longshore sediment transport on Ofir Beach.

Adaptive modeling and high quality spectral estimation for speech enhancement

In this work an adaptive modeling and spectral estimation scheme based on a dual Discrete Kalman Filtering (DKF) is proposed for speech enhancement. Both speech and noise signals are modeled by an autoregressive structure which provides an underlying time frame dependency and improves time-frequency resolution. The model parameters are arranged to obtain a combined state-space model and are also used to calculate instantaneous power spectral density estimates. The speech enhancement is performed by a dual discrete Kalman filter that simultaneously gives estimates for the models and the signals. This approach is particularly useful as a pre-processing module for parametric based speech recognition systems that rely on spectral time dependent models. The system performance has been evaluated by a set of human listeners and by spectral distances. In both cases the use of this pre-processing module has led to improved results.

Software development for estimation of optical clearing agent’s diffusion coefficients in biological tissues

The study of chemical diffusion in biological tissues is a research field of high importance and with application in many clinical, research and industrial areas. The evaluation of diffusion and viscosity properties of chemicals in tissues is necessary to characterize treatments or inclusion of preservatives in tissues or organs for low temperature conservation. Recently, we have demonstrated experimentally that the diffusion properties and dynamic viscosity of sugars and alcohols can be evaluated from optical measurements. Our studies were performed in skeletal muscle, but our results have revealed that the same methodology can be used with other tissues and different chemicals. Considering the significant number of studies that can be made with this method, it becomes necessary to turn data processing and calculation easier. With this objective, we have developed a software application that integrates all processing and calculations, turning the researcher work easier and faster. Using the same experimental data that previously was used to estimate the diffusion and viscosity of glucose in skeletal muscle, we have repeated the calculations with the new application. Comparing between the results obtained with the new application and with previous independent routines we have demonstrated great similarity and consequently validated the application. This new tool is now available to be used in similar research to obtain the diffusion properties of other chemicals in different tissues or organs.

Credit risk stress testing: The Portuguese environment, macroeconomic scenarios and the estimation of losses for corporate sectors

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

An application of reliability-based robustness assessment of steel moment resisting frame structures under post-mainshock cascading events

The paper presented herein proposes a reliability-based framework for quantifying the structural robustness considering the occurrence of a major earthquake (mainshock) and subsequent cascading hazard events, such as aftershocks that are triggered by the mainshock. These events can significantly increase the probability of failure of buildings, especially for structures that are damaged during the mainshock. The application of the proposed framework is exemplified through three numerical case studies. The case studies correspond to three SAC steel moment frame buildings of 3-, 9-, and 20- stories, which were designed to pre-Northridge codes and standards. Twodimensional nonlinear finite element models of the buildings are developed using the Open System for Earthquake Engineering Simulation framework (OpenSees), using a finite-length plastic hinge beam model and a bilinear constitutive law with deterioration, and are subjected to multiple mainshock-aftershock seismic sequences. For the three buildings analyzed herein, it is shown that the structural reliability under a single seismic event can be significantly different from that under a sequence of seismic events. The reliability-based robustness indicator used shows that the structural robustness is influenced by the extent by which a structure can distribute damage.

Customer Lifetime Value: a framework for application in the insurance industry - Building a Business Process to Generate and Maintain an Automatic Estimation Agent

Research Project submited as partial fulfilment for the Master Degree in Statistics and Information Management

Parameter estimation in the presence of auxiliary information

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutora em Estatística e Gestão de Risco, Especialidade em Estatística