The heliospheric Hale cycle over the last 300 years and its implications for a “lost” late 18th century solar cycle

A Hale cycle, one complete magnetic cycle of the Sun, spans two complete Schwabe cycles (also referred to as sunspot and, more generally, solar cycles). The approximately 22-year Hale cycle is seen in magnetic polarities of both sunspots and polar fields, as well as in the intensity of galactic cosmic rays reaching Earth, with odd- and even-numbered solar cycles displaying qualitatively different waveforms. Correct numbering of solar cycles also underpins empirical cycle-to-cycle relations which are used as first-order tests of stellar dynamo models. There has been much debate about whether the unusually long solar cycle 4 (SC4), spanning- 1784–1799, was actually two shorter solar cycles combined as a result of poor data coverage in the original Wolf sunspot number record. Indeed, the group sunspot number does show a small increase around 1794–1799 and there is evidence of an increase in the mean latitude of sunspots at this time, suggesting the existence of a cycle ‘‘4b’’. In this study, we use cosmogenic radionuclide data and associated reconstructions of the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) to show that the Hale cycle has persisted over the last 300 years and that data prior to 1800 are more consistent with cycle 4 being a single long cycle (the ‘‘no SC4b’’ scenario). We also investigate the effect of cycle 4b on the HMF using an open solar flux (OSF) continuity model, in which the OSF source term is related to sunspot number and the OSF loss term is determined by the heliospheric current sheet tilt, assumed to be a simple function of solar cycle phase. The results are surprising; Without SC4b, the HMF shows two distinct peaks in the 1784–1799 interval, while the addition of SC4b removes the secondary peak, as the OSF loss term acts in opposition to the later rise in sunspot number. The timing and magnitude of the main SC4 HMF peak is also significantly changed by the addition of SC4b. These results are compared with the cosmogenic isotope reconstructions of HMF and historical aurora records. These data marginally favour the existence of SC4b (the ‘‘SC4b’’ scenario), though the result is less certain than that based on the persistence of the Hale cycle. Thus while the current uncertainties in the observations preclude any definitive conclusions, the data favour the ‘‘no SC4b’’ scenario. Future improvements to cosmogenic isotope reconstructions of the HMF, through either improved modelling or additional ice cores from well-separated geographic locations, may enable questions of the existence of SC4b and the phase of Hale cycle prior to the Maunder minimum to be settled conclusively.

A lost insular version of the romance of Octavian

This article is the first full examination of the Irish translation of the popular and influential medieval romance "Octavian". I argue that the source for this Irish translation was an insular version of the romance, probably in Middle English. I show how the Irish translator incorporated material from another romance, "Fierabras", in order to introduce the characters of Charlemagne and his vassals into the story. This is the only version of "Octavian" that gives the text a Carolingian setting. I also demonstrate that the version of the romance from which the Irish translation was produced differed in significant ways from any of the surviving versions in other languages. I suggest that the Irish translation provides our only witness to a lost variant version of "Octavian" and, as such, extends our knowledge of the corpus of insular romance in the Middle Ages.

A Bayesian model for estimating the malaria transition probabilities considering individuals lost to follow-up

It is known that patients may cease participating in a longitudinal study and become lost to follow-up. The objective of this article is to present a Bayesian model to estimate the malaria transition probabilities considering individuals lost to follow-up. We consider a homogeneous population, and it is assumed that the considered period of time is small enough to avoid two or more transitions from one state of health to another. The proposed model is based on a Gibbs sampling algorithm that uses information of lost to follow-up at the end of the longitudinal study. To simulate the unknown number of individuals with positive and negative states of malaria at the end of the study and lost to follow-up, two latent variables were introduced in the model. We used a real data set and a simulated data to illustrate the application of the methodology. The proposed model showed a good fit to these data sets, and the algorithm did not show problems of convergence or lack of identifiability. We conclude that the proposed model is a good alternative to estimate probabilities of transitions from one state of health to the other in studies with low adherence to follow-up.

Lost in mistranslation : A case study of Japanese TV-drama fansubs

「Fansubs」というのはファンが翻訳した字幕のことである。
 本稿では日本のテレビドラマの「Fansubs」の特徴を調べる為、3つのテレビドラマの日本 語の台詞と、ファンが作った字幕を比べている。原文のテキストが翻訳と字幕制作でどの ように変わったかを情報の増減や誤訳など9つのカテゴリーに分類し、字幕テキストを 分析した。作成したのがプロの翻訳者ではなく、または非常に短期間で作成されたこの 「Fansubs」は、公式のテレビやDVDの字幕よりも誤訳などのエラーが非常に多いことが分 かった。 

Assets in Accounting: Reality Lost

The aim of this paper is to trace changes in the definitional concept of assets in an attempt to discover why professional accounting bodies in the major English speaking countries have adopted the problematic abstract 'future benefit' notion, which is so far removed from the simple concept of assets as exchangeable things or rights. It is suggested that in the future financial reporting requirements for business entities include a statement of 'separably exchangeable property' and legal obligations at the reporting date.

How the west was lost? Hamersley Iron, the birthplace of a decade of De-Unionisation

Given the focus of recent years on Rio Tinto's battles with the Australian union movement over its (largely successful) attempt to de-unionise its diverse mining and manufacturing operations, this paper examines how the company first introduced its 'staff employment system at Hamersley Iron in 1993. The success of this venture clearly provided a template for its replication throughout its many other operations over the following years. Though no doubt assisted by changed legal and political environments, this paper argues that it was ultimately the demonstration of managerial determination and a hesitant union leadership which led to the de-unionisation at Hamersley Iron. As the union movement/makes a renewed attempt to attract workers back to the fold, there are valuable lessons to be learnt from its earlier mistakes.

Mortality rates, prevalence of malnutrition, and prevalence of lost pregnancies among the drought-ravaged population of Tete province Mozambique

Background: Tete Province, Mozambique has experienced chronic food insecurity and a dramatic fall in livestock numbers due to the cyclic problems characterized by the floods in 2000 and severe droughts in 2002 and 2003. The Province has been a beneficiary of emergency relief programs, which have assisted >22% of the population. However, these programs were not based on sound epidemiological data, and they have not established baseline data against which to assess the impact of the programs. Objective: The objective of this study was to document mortality rates, causes of death, the prevalence of malnutrition, and the prevalence of lost pregnancies after 2.5 years of humanitarian response to the crisis. Methods: A two-stage, 30-cluster household survey was conducted in the Cahora Bassa and Changara districts from 22 October to 08 November 2004. A total of 838 households were surveyed, with a population size of 4,688 people. Results: Anthropometric data were collected among children 6-59 months of age. In addition, crude mortality rates (CMRs), under five mortality rates (U5MRs), causes of deaths, and prevalence of lost pregnancies were determined among the sample population. The prevalence of malnutrition was 8.0% (95% confidence interval (CI)=6.2-9.8%) for acute malnutrition, 26.9% (95% CI=24.0-29.9%) for being underweight, and 37.0% (95% CI=33.8-40.2%) for chronic malnutrition. Boys were more likely to be underweight than were girls (odds ratio (OR)=1.34; 95% CI=1.00, 1.82; p<0.05) after controlling for age, household size, and food aid beneficiary status. Similarly, children 30-59 months of age were significantly less likely to suffer from acute malnutrition (OR=0.45; 95% CI=0.26, 0.79; p<0.01) and less likely to be underweight (OR=0.37; 95% CI=0.27, 0.51; p<0.01) than children 6-29 months of age, after adjusting for the other, aforementioned factors. The proportion of lost pregnancies was estimated at 7.7% (95% CI=4.5-11.0%). A total of 215 deaths were reported during the year preceding the survey. Thirty-nine (18.1%) children <5 years of age died. The CMR was 1.23/10 000/day (95% CI=1.08-1.38), and an U5MR was 1.03/10 000/day (95% CI=0.71-1.35). Diarrheal diseases, malaria, tuberculosis, and human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) accounted for more than two-thirds of all deaths. Conclusions: The observed CMR in Tete Province, Mozambique is three times higher than the baseline rate for sub-Saharan Africa and 1.4 times higher than the CMR cut-off point used to define excess mortality in emergencies. The current humanitarian response in Tete Province would benefit from an improved alignment of food aid programming in conjunction with diarrheal disease control, HIV/AIDS, and malaria prevention and treatment programs. The impact of the food programs would be improved if mutually acceptable food aid programme objectives, verifiable indicators relevant to each objective, and beneficiary targets and selection criteria are developed. Periodic re-assessments and evaluations of the impact of the program and evidenced-based decision-making urgently are needed to avert a chronic dependency on food aid.

The usefulness of a science degree : the "lost voices" of science trained professionals

This paper reports a study of science graduates who are employed in positions outside their discipline specialisation. The research was designed to uncover the reasons for them choosing to study science at university, the competencies they utilise in their work and their lives, and how these relate to their undergraduate education in science. The study is seen as important in that already about one-half of science graduates are in such positions and it is argued that there is a need in scientific and technologically based societies to have a greater representation of such people in decision-making positions in government and industry. The directions for the science degree that can be drawn from the data gathered are congruent with those arising from other relevant studies. That is, attention should be paid to widely used skills, such as communication and problem-solving, and to developing an understanding of science within its social and ethical context. An argument is mounted for considering the way the science degree is presented to potential students and to the general public.

Fresh Freud: no longer lost in translation

The new translations of Freud into English highlight the question as to the nature of Freud's quest and achievement. They show a livelier Freud than the Strachey translations (Freud, 1953-1974), who used everyday language in his work instead of trying to establish a new technical vocabulary for an esoteric new discipline. However, with the new Penguin editions thus far, fresh Freud is no longer lost in translation. The Standard Edition was created importantly to create an authoritative international trademark and was made more natural "scientific" in appearance. The fresh translations show a Freud in tune with Karl Popper's (1976) approach in his later work that viewed science as essentially problem solving. The example of "Mourning and Melancholia" (Freud, 1917/ 1964, 1917/1981, 1917/2005) is discussed as an exercise in exploration, conjectures, criticism, construct formation, and problem solving. Translation issues are discussed. Instead of being a particular trade mark, the very fact of there being new and different translations opens Freud's works to further questioning about their meanings and intents in the marketplace of ideas and practices