Modeling and forecasting long-term natural gas (NG) consumption in Iran, using particle swarm optimization (PSO)

The gradual changes in the world development have brought energy issues back into high profile. An ongoing challenge for countries around the world is to balance the development gains against its effects on the environment. The energy management is the key factor of any sustainable development program. All the aspects of development in agriculture, power generation, social welfare and industry in Iran are crucially related to the energy and its revenue. Forecasting end-use natural gas consumption is an important Factor for efficient system operation and a basis for planning decisions. In this thesis, particle swarm optimization (PSO) used to forecast long run natural gas consumption in Iran. Gas consumption data in Iran for the previous 34 years is used to predict the consumption for the coming years. Four linear and nonlinear models proposed and six factors such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Population, National Income (NI), Temperature, Consumer Price Index (CPI) and yearly Natural Gas (NG) demand investigated.

Is money targeting an option for Bank Indonesia?

In this paper, using the cash-in-advance model, we estimate Indonesia's money demand function for the period 1970–2005. We find the real M1 and real M2 are cointegrated with their determinants, namely real income, real exchange rate and short-term domestic and foreign interest rates. The long-run elasticities, except for the relationship between M2 and domestic interest rate, are plausible. Interestingly, we find a negative relationship between real exchange rate and real money demand, suggesting evidence of currency substitution. We test for causal relationships and find that in the short-run only the real exchange rate Granger causes real M1 and real M2. Finally, we find that Indonesia's money demand functions are unstable. We conclude that money targeting is not an option for Bank Indonesian and that currency substitution should be curbed in order to ensure macroeconomic sustainability.

Long-Term post-merger announcement performance. A case study of Australian listed real estate

This study examines the long-term postmerger performance of Australian Real Estate Investment Trusts (A-REITs). The A-REIT sector is used as a case study being less vulnerable to agency issues due to its regulatory structure (Eichholtz and Kok, 2008; Ratcliffe et al., 2009). Research on conventional firms has shown, on average, shareholders are worse off in the long run (Alexandridis et al., 2012). In contrast, we find that shareholders experience significantly positive abnormal returns, after accounting for the financial crisis. This outcome suggests that when managers are restricted with the use of retained earnings and the type of investment, they may be less susceptible to hubris and/or agency issues.

Ensaios em macroeconometria e finanças

This thesis is composed of three essays referent to the subjects of macroeconometrics and Önance. In each essay, which corresponds to one chapter, the objective is to investigate and analyze advanced econometric techniques, applied to relevant macroeconomic questions, such as the capital mobility hypothesis and the sustainability of public debt. A Önance topic regarding portfolio risk management is also investigated, through an econometric technique used to evaluate Value-at-Risk models. The Örst chapter investigates an intertemporal optimization model to analyze the current account. Based on Campbell & Shillerís (1987) approach, a Wald test is conducted to analyze a set of restrictions imposed to a VAR used to forecast the current account. The estimation is based on three di§erent procedures: OLS, SUR and the two-way error decomposition of Fuller & Battese (1974), due to the presence of global shocks. A note on Granger causality is also provided, which is shown to be a necessary condition to perform the Wald test with serious implications to the validation of the model. An empirical exercise for the G-7 countries is presented, and the results substantially change with the di§erent estimation techniques. A small Monte Carlo simulation is also presented to investigate the size and power of the Wald test based on the considered estimators. The second chapter presents a study about Öscal sustainability based on a quantile autoregression (QAR) model. A novel methodology to separate periods of nonstationarity from stationary ones is proposed, which allows one to identify trajectories of public debt that are not compatible with Öscal sustainability. Moreover, such trajectories are used to construct a debt ceiling, that is, the largest value of public debt that does not jeopardize long-run Öscal sustainability. An out-of-sample forecast of such a ceiling is also constructed, and can be used by policy makers interested in keeping the public debt on a sustainable path. An empirical exercise by using Brazilian data is conducted to show the applicability of the methodology. In the third chapter, an alternative backtest to evaluate the performance of Value-at-Risk (VaR) models is proposed. The econometric methodology allows one to directly test the overall performance of a VaR model, as well as identify periods of an increased risk exposure, which seems to be a novelty in the literature. Quantile regressions provide an appropriate environment to investigate VaR models, since they can naturally be viewed as a conditional quantile function of a given return series. An empirical exercise is conducted for daily S&P500 series, and a Monte Carlo simulation is also presented, revealing that the proposed test might exhibit more power in comparison to other backtests.

Macroeconomic constraints to growth of Brazilian economy diagnosis and some policy proposals

The recent process of accelerated expansion of the Brazilian economy was driven by exports and fixed capital formation. Although the pace of growth was more robust than in the 1990´s, we can still witness the existence of certain macroeconomic constraints to its continuation in the long run such as, for instance, the exchange rate overvaluation in particular since 2005, and in general the modus operandi of monetary policy. Such constraints may jeopardize the sustainability of the current pace of growth. Therefore, we argue that Brazil still lies in a trap made up of high interest and low exchange rates. The elimination of the exchange rate misalignment would bring about a great increase in the rate of interest, which on its turn would impact negatively upon investment and hence upon the sustainability of long run economic growth. We outline a set of policy measures to eliminate such a trap, in particular, the adoption of an implicit target for the exchange rate, capital controls and the abandonment of the present regime of inflation targeting. Recent events seem to go in this direction.

Structural reforms, technological gaps and economic development: a Latin American perspective

Includes bibliography

The employment situation in Latin America and the Caribbean: Labour productivity and distribution issues

Although the economies of Latin America and the Caribbean grew more slowly in 2011 than in 2010, there were some improvements on the employment front. Workers benefited from the region’s satisfactory economic performance in an increasingly complex international setting. The unemployment rate fell from 7.3% in 2010 to 6.7% in 2011 thanks to a halfpercentage- point gain in the urban employment rate. Both rates are at levels that have not been seen for a long time. The proportion of formal jobs with social benefits rose as well, and underemployment declined. The average wage and the minimum wage both increased in real terms, albeit only moderately. Economic performance and the employment situation varied widely among the subregions. The unemployment rate dropped by 0.6 percentage points in South America but 0.4 percentage points in the countries of the northern part of Latin America. In the countries of the Caribbean, the employment rate was up by 0.2 percentage points. The data show that substantial labour market gaps and serious labour-market insertion issues remain. This is especially the case for women and young people, for whom unemployment rates and other labour indicators are still unfavourable. The second part of this report looks at whether the fruits of economic growth and rising productivity have been distributed equitably between workers and companies. Between 2002 and 2008 (the most recent expansionary economic cycle), wages as a percentage of GDP fell in 13 of the 21 countries of the region for which data are available and rose in just 8. This points to redistribution that is unfavourable to workers, which is worrying in a region which already has the most unequal distribution of income in the world. Underlying this trend is the fact that, worldwide, wages have grown less than productivity. Beyond the ethical dimension of this issue, it jeopardizes the social and economic sustainability of growth. For example, one of the root causes of the recent financial crisis was that households in the United States responded to declining wage income by borrowing more to pay for consumption and housing. This turned out to be unsustainable in the long run. Over time, it undermines the labour market’s contribution to the efficient allocation of resources and its distributive function, too, with negative consequences for democratic governance. Among the triggers of this distributive worsening most often cited in the global debate are market deregulation and its impact on financial globalization, technological change that favours capital over labour, and the weakening of labour institutions. What is needed here is a public policy effort to help keep wage increases from lagging behind increases in productivity. Some countries of the region, especially in South America, saw promising developments during the second half of the 2000s in the form of a positive trend reversal in wages as a percentage of GDP. One example is Brazil, where a minimum wage policy tailored to the dynamics of the domestic market is considered to be one of the factors behind an upturn in the wage share of GDP. The region needs to grow more and better. Productivity must grow at a steady pace, to serve as the basis for sustained improvements in the well-being of the populace and to narrow the gap between the economies of Latin America and the Caribbean and the more advanced economies. And inequality must be decreased; this could be achieved by closing the productivity gap between upgraded companies and the many firms whose productivity is low. As set out in this report, the region made some progress between 2002 and 2010, with labour productivity rising at the rate of 1.5% a year. But this progress falls short of that seen in other regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa (2.1%) and, above all, East Asia (8.3%, not counting Japan and the Republic of Korea). Moreover, in many of the countries of the region these gains have not been distributed equitably. Therein lies a dual challenge that must be addressed: continue to increase productivity while enhancing the mechanisms for distributing gains in a way that will encourage investment and boost worker and household income. The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) and the International Labour Organization (ILO) estimate that the pace of economic growth in the region will be slightly slower in 2012 than in 2011, in a global economic scenario marked by the cooling of several of the main economic engines and a high degree of uncertainty concerning, above all, prospects for the euro zone. The region is expected to continue to hold up well to this worsening scenario, thanks to policies that leveraged more favourable conditions in the past. This will be felt in the labour markets, as well, so expectations are that unemployment will edge down by as much as two tenths of a decimal point.

Clinical predictors of long-term outcome in obsessive-compulsive disorder

Background: The purpose of this study was to investigate demographic and clinical factors associated with the long-term outcome of obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD). Methods: A hundred ninety-six previously untreated patients with DSM-IV criteria OCD completed a 12-week randomized open trial of group cognitive-behavioral therapy (GCBT) or fluoxetine, followed by 21 months of individualized, uncontrolled treatment, according to international guidelines for OCD treatment. OCD severity was assessed using the Yale–Brown Obsessive-Compulsive Scale (Y-BOCS) at different times over the follow-up period. Demographics and several clinical variables were assessed at baseline. Results: Fifty percent of subjects improved at least 35% from baseline, and 21.3% responded fully (final Y-BOCS score < or = 8). Worse prognosis was associated with earlier age at onset of OCD (P = 0.045), longer duration of illness (P = 0.001) presence of at least one comorbid psychiatric disorder (P = 0.001), comorbidity with a mood disorder (P = 0.002), higher baseline Beck-Depression scores (P = 0.011), positive family history of tics (P = 0.008), and positive family history of anxiety disorders (P = 0.008). Type of initial treatment was not associated with long-term outcome. After correction for multiple testing, the presence of at least one comorbid disorder, the presence of a depressive disorder, and duration of OCD remained significant. Conclusions: Patients under cognitive-behavioral or pharmacological treatment improved continuously in the long run, regardless of initial treatment modality or degree of early response, suggesting that OCD patients benefit from continuous treatment. Psychiatric comorbidity, especially depressive disorders, may impair the long-term outcome of OCD patients.

Spatial Disparity and Dynamic Trajectory of Convergence in China: Construction and Application of a Composite Index of Regional Development

China is a large country characterized by remarkable growth and distinct regional diversity. Spatial disparity has always been a hot issue since China has been struggling to follow a balanced growth path but still confronting with unprecedented pressures and challenges. To better understand the inequality level benchmarking spatial distributions of Chinese provinces and municipalities and estimate dynamic trajectory of sustainable development in China, I constructed the Composite Index of Regional Development (CIRD) with five sub pillars/dimensions involving Macroeconomic Index (MEI), Science and Innovation Index (SCI), Environmental Sustainability Index (ESI), Human Capital Index (HCI) and Public Facilities Index (PFI), endeavoring to cover various fields of regional socioeconomic development. Ranking reports on the five sub dimensions and aggregated CIRD were provided in order to better measure the developmental degrees of 31 or 30 Chinese provinces and municipalities over 13 years from 1998 to 2010 as the time interval of three “Five-year Plans”. Further empirical applications of this CIRD focused on clustering and convergence estimation, attempting to fill up the gap in quantifying the developmental levels of regional comprehensive socioeconomics and estimating the dynamic convergence trajectory of regional sustainable development in a long run. Four clusters were benchmarked geographically-oriented in the map on the basis of cluster analysis, and club-convergence was observed in the Chinese provinces and municipalities based on stochastic kernel density estimation.

Determining the effect of regulation on Microfinance Institutions Financial Self-Sustainability. A Cross-Country Comparison

Microfinance is an initiative which seeks to address financial inclusion, micro-entrepreneurship, and poverty reduction without over burdening governments. However, the current sector of microfinance is still heavily dependent on the good will of donors. The over-reliance on donations is a feature which threatens the long term sustainability of microfinance. Much has been written about this reliance, but research to date hasn’t empirically examined the effect of regulation as a mediator. This is a critical area of study because regulation directly affects Microfinance Institutions’ (MFI) innovation, and innovation is what shapes the future of microfinance. This thesis considers the role that regulation plays in affecting MFI’s and their ability to innovate in products, services and long-term sustainability via access to capital. Interviews were undertaken with stakeholders in MFI’s, NGO’s, Self-Regulating Bodies, and Regulators in India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. This thesis discusses findings from interviews in relation to regulatory measures regarding financial self-sustainability of MFI’s. The conclusions of this thesis have implications for policy and inform the microfinance literature.

A Method for Assessing the Sustainability of Design in Developing World Projects

Projects for the developing world usually find themselves at the bottom of an engineer’s priority list. There is often very little engineering effort placed on creating new products for the poorest people in the world. This trend is beginning to change now as people begin to recognize the potential for these projects. Engineers are beginning to try and solve some of the direst issues in the developing world and many are having positive impacts. However, the conditions needed to support these projects can only be maintained in the short term. There is now a need for greater sustainability. Sustainability has a wide variety of definitions in both business and engineering. These concepts are analyzed and synthesized to develop a broad meaning of sustainability in the developing world. This primarily stems from the “triple bottom line” concept of economic, social, and environmental sustainability. Using this model and several international standards, this thesis develops a metric for guiding and evaluating the sustainability of engineering projects. The metric contains qualitative questions that investigate the sustainability of a project. It is used to assess several existing projects in order to determine flaws. Specifically, three projects seeking to deliver eyeglasses are analyzed for weaknesses to help define a new design approach for achieving better results. Using the metric as a guiding tool, teams designed two pieces of optometry equipment: one to cut lenses for eyeglasses and the other to diagnose refractive error, or prescription. These designs are created and prototyped in the developed and developing worlds in order to determine general feasibility. Although there is a recognized need for eventual design iterations, the whole project is evaluated using the developed metric and compared to the existing projects. Overall, the success demonstrates the improvements made to the long-term sustainability of the project resulting from the use of the sustainability metric.

Rural water system sustainability : a case study of community-managed water systems in Saramaka communities

Worldwide, rural populations are far less likely to have access to clean drinking water than are urban ones. In many developing countries, the current approach to rural water supply uses a model of demand-driven, community-managed water systems. In Suriname, South America rural populations have limited access to improved water supplies; community-managed water supply systems have been installed in several rural communities by nongovernmental organizations as part of the solution. To date, there has been no review of the performance of these water supply systems. This report presents the results of an investigation of three rural water supply systems constructed in Saramaka villages in the interior of Suriname. The investigation used a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods, coupled with ethnographic information, to construct a comprehensive overview of these water systems. This overview includes the water use of the communities, the current status of the water supply systems, histories and sustainability of the water supply projects, technical reviews, and community perceptions. From this overview, factors important to the sustainability of these water systems were identified. Community water supply systems are engineered solutions that operate through social cooperation. The results from this investigation show that technical adequacy is the first and most critical factor for long-term sustainability of a water system. It also shows that technical adequacy is dependent on the appropriateness of the engineering design for the social, cultural, and natural setting in which it takes place. The complex relationships between technical adequacy, community support, and the involvement of women play important roles in the success of water supply projects. Addressing these factors during the project process and taking advantage of alternative water resources may increase the supply of improved drinking water to rural communities.

Community managed rural water supply systems in the Dominican Republic : assessment of sustainability of systems built by the National Institute of Potable Water and Peace Corps, Dominican Republic

In the Dominican Republic economic growth in the past twenty years has not yielded sufficient improvement in access to drinking water services, especially in rural areas where 1.5 million people do not have access to an improved water source (WHO, 2006). Worldwide, strategic development planning in the rural water sector has focused on participatory processes and the use of demand filters to ensure that service levels match community commitment to post-project operation and maintenance. However studies have concluded that an alarmingly high percentage of drinking water systems (20-50%) do not provide service at the design levels and/or fail altogether (up to 90%): BNWP (2009), Annis (2006), and Reents (2003). World Bank, USAID, NGOs, and private consultants have invested significant resources in an effort to determine what components make up an “enabling environment” for sustainable community management of rural water systems (RWS). Research has identified an array of critical factors, internal and external to the community, which affect long term sustainability of water services. Different frameworks have been proposed in order to better understand the linkages between individual factors and sustainability of service. This research proposes a Sustainability Analysis Tool to evaluate the sustainability of RWS, adapted from previous relevant work in the field to reflect the realities in the Dominican Republic. It can be used as a diagnostic tool for government entities and development organizations to characterize the needs of specific communities and identify weaknesses in existing training regimes or support mechanisms. The framework utilizes eight indicators in three categories (Organization/Management, Financial Administration, and Technical Service). Nineteen independent variables are measured resulting in a score of sustainability likely (SL), possible (SP), or unlikely (SU) for each of the eight indicators. Thresholds are based upon benchmarks from the DR and around the world, primary data collected during the research, and the author’s 32 months of field experience. A final sustainability score is calculated using weighting factors for each indicator, derived from Lockwood (2003). The framework was tested using a statistically representative geographically stratified random sample of 61 water systems built in the DR by initiatives of the National Institute of Potable Water (INAPA) and Peace Corps. The results concluded that 23% of sample systems are likely to be sustainable in the long term, 59% are possibly sustainable, and for 18% it is unlikely that the community will be able to overcome any significant challenge. Communities that were scored as unlikely sustainable perform poorly in participation, financial durability, and governance while the highest scores were for system function and repair service. The Sustainability Analysis Tool results are verified by INAPA and PC reports, evaluations, and database information, as well as, field observations and primary data collected during the surveys. Future research will analyze the nature and magnitude of relationships between key factors and the sustainability score defined by the tool. Factors include: gender participation, legal status of water committees, plumber/operator remuneration, demand responsiveness, post construction support methodologies, and project design criteria.

Envy on Facebook: a hidden threat to users’ life satisfaction?

The wealth of social information presented on Facebook is astound-ing. While these affordances allow users to keep up-to-date, they also produce a basis for social comparison and envy on an unprecedented scale. Even though envy may endanger users’ life satisfaction and lead to platform avoidance, no study exists uncovering this dynamics. To close this gap, we build on responses of 584 Facebook users collected as part of two independent studies. In study 1, we explore the scale, scope, and nature of envy incidents triggered by Face-book. In study 2, the role of envy feelings is examined as a mediator between intensity of passive following on Facebook and users’ life satisfaction. Con-firming full mediation, we demonstrate that passive following exacerbates envy feelings, which decrease life satisfaction. From a provider’s perspective, our findings signal that users frequently perceive Facebook as a stressful environ-ment, which may, in the long-run, endanger platform sustainability.

‘Stop spamming me!’: exploring information overload on Facebook

The problem of information overload on Facebook is exacerbating as users expand their networks. Growing quantity and increasingly poor quality of information on the Newsfeed may interfere with the hedonic experience of users resulting in frustration and dissatisfaction. In the long run, such developments threaten to undermine sustainability of the platform. To address these issues, our study adopts a grounded theory approach to explore the phenomenon of information overload on Facebook. We investigate main sources of information overload, identify strategies users adopt to deal with it as well as possible consequences. In-depth analysis of the phenomenon allows us to uncover individual peculiarities for identification of relevant information. Based on them we provide valuable recommendations for network providers.