Exchange rate policies, patterns of specialization and economic development: theory and evidence in developing countries

The objectives of this paper are twofold. First, it intends to provide theoretical elements to analyze the relation between real exchange rates and economic development. Our main hypothesis is very much in line with the Dutch disease literature, and states that competitive currencies contribute to the existence and maintenance of the anufacturing sector in the economy. This, in turn, brings about higher growth rates in the long run, given the existence of increasing returns in the industrial sector, and its importance in generating echnological change and increasing productivity in the overall economy. The second objective of this paper is empirical. It intends to analyze examples of successful exchange rate policies, such as Chile and Indonesia in the eighties, as a benchmark for comparison with countries where currency overvaluation has taken place, such as Brazil. In the latter case, the local currency is being inflated by large capital inflows, due to high domestic interest rates and to a boom in demand and prices of commodities in the international markets. It will be argued that the industrial sector bears most of the burden when the currency appreciates, and that Brazil risks at deindustrialization if there are no changes in the exchange rate regime

Implications of ernbodied technological change for development economics

Employing a embodied technologic change model in which the time decision of scrapping old vintages of capital and adopt newer one is endogenous we show that the elasticity of substitutions among capital and labor plays a key role in determining the optimum life span of capital. In particular, for the CD case the life span of capital does not depend on the relative price of it. The estimation of the model's long-run investment function shows, for a Panel data set consisting of 125 economies for 25 years, that the price elasticity of investment is lower than one; we rejected the CD specification. Our calibration for the US suggests 0.4 for the technical elasticity of substitution. In order to get a theoretical consistent concept of aggregate capital we derive the relative price profile for a shadow second-hand market for capital. The shape of the model's theoretical price curve reproduces the empírical estimation of it. \lVe plug the calibrate version of the long-run solution of the model to a cross-section of economies data set to get the implied TFP, that is, the part of the productivity which is not explained by the model. We show that the mo dei represent a good improvement, comparing to the standard neoc!assical growth model with CD production function and disembodied technical change, in accounting the world diversity in productivity. In addition the model describes the fact that a very poor economy can experience fast growth based on capital accumulation until the point of becoming a middle income economy; from this point on it has to rely on TFP increase in order to keep growing.

Structural reforms, technological gaps and economic development: a Latin American perspective

Includes bibliography

The Latin American development problem

Includes bibliography

Development of national statistical systems and the responsibilities of national statistical offices

Includes bibliography

Macroeconomics for development in Latin America and the Caribbean: Some new considerations on countercyclicality

Includes bibliography.

Planting coconuts in Indian villages: ethnoecological aspects and evaluation of a "sustainable development" project

Apesar de cientistas e tomadores de decisão abraçarem o conceito geral de "desenvolvimento sustentável", há pouco acordo sobre como se atingir esta meta em situações específicas. Assim, projetos de desenvolvimento sustentável são amplamente criticados por etno-cientistas quanto à forma como são inter-culturalmente formulados. Aqui reportamos um caso controverso de plantio de coco-da-Bahia em aldeias Kayapó do sul do Pará, e fazemos a nossa autocrítica. Nós partimos da premissa de que o reflorestamento e o estado geral de saúde/nutrição caminham lado a lado. Portanto, o desenvolvimento da cultura de cocos por si só deve contribuir para a conservação da floresta no longo prazo e, simultaneamente, contribuir para o bom estado nutricional do povo Kayapó que protege a floresta da ameaça de práticas não-sustentáveis. Nós buscamos descobrir como que o comportamento dos Kayapó afeta o desenvolvimento da cultura de cocos quando amparada com suporte externo. Nós apresentamos resultados de duas viagens de campo para a terra Kayapó, onde detectamos fatores sócio-ecológicos relevantes para o sucesso de nosso projeto de apoio à cultura de coqueiros nas aldeias indígenas. Primeiro, em novembro de 2007, nós visitamos as aldeias Kikretum, Moikarakô e Aukre (dentre 10 aldeias que receberam mudas de coqueiros de nosso programa de apoio) para entregar um segundo carregamento de mudas de coqueiro (o primeiro carregamento aconteceu em abril de 2006). E descrevemos quantitativamente um aspecto do comportamento dos dispersores de sementes de coco (os Kayapó). Especificamente, como as palmeiras pré-existentes nas aldeias são distribuídas dentre as famílias dos índios e como este carregamento sobreviveu a fatores etno-ecológicos. Segundo, em julho de 2008 nós visitamos as aldeias Kokraimoro e Pykararankre e estimamos a posição dos coqueiros pré-existentes e dos novos em relação a outras árvores cultivadas, fazendo uso de censos partindo do centro das aldeias para seus limites exteriores. Nas três aldeias indígenas visitadas em 2007, virtualmente todos os coqueiros pré-existentes pertenciam a poucas famílias e a distribuição de frutos era, na maior parte dos casos, altamente concentrada dentre os membros destas famílias. Entretanto, assumindo que todos os coqueiros jovens que sobreviveram ao primeiro ano chegarão à maturidade (do primeiro carregamento em abril de 2006), eles representam um aumento considerável no numero projetado de coqueiros adultos nas três aldeias visitadas (48, 195 e 101% em Kikretum, Moikarakô e Aukre, respectivamente). E uma redução substancial na desigualdade de acesso aos cocos. Na expedição de 2008, encontramos que os índios geralmente plantam coqueiros bem próximos das suas casas onde a competição com outras árvores cultivadas podem limitar o desenvolvimento das palmeiras.

Financial Development and Economic Growth: Time Series Evidence from Albania

The main objective of this thesis is to explore the short and long run causality patterns in the finance – growth nexus and finance-growth-trade nexus before and after the global financial crisis, in the case of Albania. To this end we use quarterly data on real GDP, 13 proxy measures for financial development and the trade openness indicator for the period 1998Q1 – 2013Q2 and 1998Q1-2008Q3. Causality patterns will be explored in a VAR-VECM framework. For this purpose we will proceed as follows: (i) testing for the integration order of the variables; (ii) cointegration analysis and (iii) performing Granger causality tests in a VAR-VECM framework. In the finance-growth nexus, empirical evidence suggests for a positive long run relationship between finance and economic growth, with causality running from financial development to economic growth. The global financial crisis seems to have not affected the causality direction in the finance and growth nexus, thus supporting the finance led growth hypothesis in the long run in the case of Albania. In the finance-growth-trade openness nexus, we found evidence for a positive long run relationship the variables, with causality direction depending on the proxy used for financial development. When the pre-crisis sample is considered, we find evidence for causality running from financial development and trade openness to economic growth. The global financial crisis seems to have affected somewhat the causality direction in the finance-growth-trade nexus, which has become sensible to the proxy used for financial development. On the short run, empirical evidence suggests for a clear unidirectional relationship between finance and growth, with causality mostly running from economic growth to financial development. When we consider the per-crisis sub sample results are mixed, depending on the proxy used for financial development. The same results are confirmed when trade openness is taken into account.

Spatial Disparity and Dynamic Trajectory of Convergence in China: Construction and Application of a Composite Index of Regional Development

China is a large country characterized by remarkable growth and distinct regional diversity. Spatial disparity has always been a hot issue since China has been struggling to follow a balanced growth path but still confronting with unprecedented pressures and challenges. To better understand the inequality level benchmarking spatial distributions of Chinese provinces and municipalities and estimate dynamic trajectory of sustainable development in China, I constructed the Composite Index of Regional Development (CIRD) with five sub pillars/dimensions involving Macroeconomic Index (MEI), Science and Innovation Index (SCI), Environmental Sustainability Index (ESI), Human Capital Index (HCI) and Public Facilities Index (PFI), endeavoring to cover various fields of regional socioeconomic development. Ranking reports on the five sub dimensions and aggregated CIRD were provided in order to better measure the developmental degrees of 31 or 30 Chinese provinces and municipalities over 13 years from 1998 to 2010 as the time interval of three “Five-year Plans”. Further empirical applications of this CIRD focused on clustering and convergence estimation, attempting to fill up the gap in quantifying the developmental levels of regional comprehensive socioeconomics and estimating the dynamic convergence trajectory of regional sustainable development in a long run. Four clusters were benchmarked geographically-oriented in the map on the basis of cluster analysis, and club-convergence was observed in the Chinese provinces and municipalities based on stochastic kernel density estimation.

Identifying indicators of sustainable development using the global sustainability quadrant approach

Advances in information technology and global data availability have opened the door for assessments of sustainable development at a truly macro scale. It is now fairly easy to conduct a study of sustainability using the entire planet as the unit of analysis; this is precisely what this work set out to accomplish. The study began by examining some of the best known composite indicator frameworks developed to measure sustainability at the country level today. Most of these were found to value human development factors and a clean local environment, but to gravely overlook consumption of (remote) resources in relation to nature’s capacity to renew them, a basic requirement for a sustainable state. Thus, a new measuring standard is proposed, based on the Global Sustainability Quadrant approach. In a two‐dimensional plot of nations’ Human Development Index (HDI) vs. their Ecological Footprint (EF) per capita, the Sustainability Quadrant is defined by the area where both dimensions satisfy the minimum conditions of sustainable development: an HDI score above 0.8 (considered ‘high’ human development), and an EF below the fair Earth‐share of 2.063 global hectares per person. After developing methods to identify those countries that are closest to the Quadrant in the present‐day and, most importantly, those that are moving towards it over time, the study tackled the question: what indicators of performance set these countries apart? To answer this, an analysis of raw data, covering a wide array of environmental, social, economic, and governance performance metrics, was undertaken. The analysis used country rank lists for each individual metric and compared them, using the Pearson Product Moment Correlation function, to the rank lists generated by the proximity/movement relative to the Quadrant measuring methods. The analysis yielded a list of metrics which are, with a high degree of statistical significance, associated with proximity to – and movement towards – the Quadrant; most notably: Favorable for sustainable development: use of contraception, high life expectancy, high literacy rate, and urbanization. Unfavorable for sustainable development: high GDP per capita, high language diversity, high energy consumption, and high meat consumption. A momentary gain, but a burden in the long‐run: high carbon footprint and debt. These results could serve as a solid stepping stone for the development of more reliable composite index frameworks for assessing countries’ sustainability.

China in Global Value Chains: Implications for Industrial Policy and Development

Rapid technological advances and liberal trade regimes permit functional reintegration of dispersed activities into new border-spanning business networks variously referred to as global value chains (GVCs). Given that the gains of a country from GVCs depend on the activities taking place in its jurisdiction and their linkages to global markets, this study starts by providing a descriptive overview of China’s economic structure and trade profile. The first two chapters of this paper demonstrate what significant role GVCs have played in China’s economic growth, evident in enhanced productivity, diversification, and sophistication of China’s exports, and how these economic benefits have propelled China’s emergence as the world’s manufacturing hub in the past two decades. However, benefits from GVC participation – in particular technological learning, knowledge building, and industrial upgrading – are not automatic. What strategies would help Chinese industries engage with GVCs in ways that are deemed sustainable in the long run? What challenges and related opportunities China would face throughout the implementation process? The last two chapters of this paper focus on implications of GVCs for China’s industrial policy and development. Chapter Three examines how China is reorienting its manufacturing sector toward the production of higher value-added goods and expanding its service sector, both domestically and internationally; while Chapter Four provides illustrative policy recommendations on dealing with the positive and negative outcomes triggered by GVCs, within China and beyond the country’s borders. To the end, this study also hopes to shed some light on the lessons and complexities that arise from GVC participation for other developing countries.

Salto triplo : o sistema de preparaçao do desportista : da detecção a promoção do talento

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

A Model for comparing reduced impact logging with conventional logging for an Eastern Amazonian Forest

Using data from a logging experiment in the eastern Brazilian Amazon region, we develop a matrix growth and yield model that captures the dynamic effects of harvest system choice on forest structure and composition. Multinomial logistic regression is used to estimate the growth transition parameters for a 10-year time step, while a Poisson regression model is used to estimate recruitment parameters. The model is designed to be easily integrated with an economic model of decisionmaking to perform tropical forest policy analysis. The model is used to compare the long-run structure and composition of a stand arising from the choice of implementing either conventional logging techniques or more carefully planned and executed reduced-impact logging (RIL) techniques, contrasted against a baseline projection of an unlogged forest. Results from log and leave scenarios show that a stand logged according to Brazilian management requirements will require well over 120 years to recover its initial commercial volume, regardless of logging technique employed. Implementing RIL, however, accelerates this recovery. Scenarios imposing a 40-year cutting cycle raise the possibility of sustainable harvest volumes, although at significantly lower levels than is implied by current regulations. Meeting current Brazilian forest policy goals may require an increase in the planned total area of permanent production forest or the widespread adoption of silvicultural practices that increase stand recovery and volume accumulation rates after RIL harvests. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Programmed hypertension in rats treated with a NF-kappa B inhibitor during nephrogenesis: renal mechanisms

Suppression of the renin-angiotensin system (RAS) during murine lactation causes progressive renal injury, indicating a physiological action of angiotensin II on nephrogenesis. The nuclear factor NF-kappa B system is one of the main intracellular mediators of angiotensin II. We investigated whether inhibition of this system with pyrrolidine dithiocarbamate (PDTC) during rat nephrogenesis would lead to similar hypertension and renal injury as observed with RAS suppressors. Immediately after delivery, 32 Munich-Wistar dams, each nursing 6 male pups, were divided into 2 groups: C, untreated, and PDTC, receiving PDTC, 280 mg kg(-1) day(-1) orally, during 21 days. After weaning, the offspring were followed until 10 months of age without treatment. Adult rats that received neonatal PDTC exhibited stable hypertension and myocardial injury, without albuminuria. To gain additional insight into this process, the renal expression of RAS components and sodium transporters were determined by quantitative real-time PCR (qRT-PCR) at 3 and 10 months of life. Renal renin and angiotensinogen were upregulated at 3 and downregulated at 10 months of age, suggesting a role for early local RAS activation. Likewise, there was early upregulation of the proximal sodium/glucose and sodium/bicarbonate transporters, which abated later in life, suggesting that additional factors sustained hypertension in the long run. The conclusions drawn from the findings were as follows: (1) an intact NF-jB system during nephrogenesis may be essential to normal renal and cardiovascular function in adult life; (2) neonatal PDTC represents a new model of hypertension, lacking overt structural injury or functional impairment of the kidneys; and (3) hypertension in this model seems associated with early temporary activation of renal RAS and sodium transporters. Hypertension Research (2011) 34, 693-700; doi: 10.1038/hr. 2011.4; published online 17 February 2011

Fertility and female work force participation in Bangladesh: Causality and cointegration

This paper examines the causal links between fertility and female labor force participation in Bangladesh over the period 1974-2000 by specifying a bivariate and several trivariate models in a vector error correction framework. The three trivariate models alternatively include average age at first marriage for females, per capita GDP and infant mortality rate, which control for the effects of other socio-economic factors on fertility and female labor force participation. All the specified models indicate an inverse long-run relationship between fertility and female labor force participation. While the bivariate model also indicates bidirectional causality, the multivariate models confirm only a unidirectional causality – from labor force participation to fertility. Further, per capita GDP and infant mortality rate appear to Granger-cause both fertility and female labor force participation.