The struggle to diversify rural livelihoods: Bio-enterprise development initiatives and their impacts on agro-/pastoral communities in the drylands of Kenya

This article analyses the impacts of four different bio-enterprise initiatives on agro-pastoral livelihoods and on improved natural resources management (NRM) in the drylands of Kenya. In this way it contributes to an area of rural development that is gaining increasing interest, but still has little empirical evidence. Data were collected through interviews, focus group discussions, informal discussions and the study of reports. One of the key findings of this article is that diversification into enterprises requires cooperation among the stakeholders with their varying experiences in development, NRM and business development. In addition to initial investments, such enterprises need sustained financial, as well as other support like capacity development to survive the market introduction phase. For such enterprises to defend their market niches, the quantity and quality of the product are critical. In addition to support in human, financial, social, physical and natural capital, mentoring is another crucial factor for success.

Saddlepoint Approximations to the Probability of Ruin in Finite Time for the Compound Poisson Risk Process Perturbed by Diffusion

A large deviations type approximation to the probability of ruin within a finite time for the compound Poisson risk process perturbed by diffusion is derived. This approximation is based on the saddlepoint method and generalizes the approximation for the non-perturbed risk process by Barndorff-Nielsen and Schmidli (Scand Actuar J 1995(2):169–186, 1995). An importance sampling approximation to this probability of ruin is also provided. Numerical illustrations assess the accuracy of the saddlepoint approximation using importance sampling as a benchmark. The relative deviations between saddlepoint approximation and importance sampling are very small, even for extremely small probabilities of ruin. The saddlepoint approximation is however substantially faster to compute.

Twelve-month psychosis-predictive value of the ultra-high risk criteria in children and adolescents

Objective The validity of current ultra-high risk (UHR) criteria is under-examined in help-seeking minors, particularly, in children below the age of 12 years. Thus, the present study investigated predictors of one-year outcome in children and adolescents (CAD) with UHR status. Method Thirty-five children and adolescents (age 9–17 years) meeting UHR criteria according to the Structured Interview for Psychosis-Risk Syndromes were followed-up for 12 months. Regression analyses were employed to detect baseline predictors of conversion to psychosis and of outcome of non-converters (remission and persistence of UHR versus conversion). Results At one-year follow-up, 20% of patients had developed schizophrenia, 25.7% had remitted from their UHR status that, consequently, had persisted in 54.3%. No patient had fully remitted from mental disorders, even if UHR status was not maintained. Conversion was best predicted by any transient psychotic symptom and a disorganized communication score. No prediction model for outcome beyond conversion was identified. Conclusions Our findings provide the first evidence for the predictive utility of UHR criteria in CAD in terms of brief intermittent psychotic symptoms (BIPS) when accompanied by signs of cognitive impairment, i.e. disorganized communication. However, because attenuated psychotic symptoms (APS) related to thought content and perception were indicative of non-conversion at 1-year follow-up, their use in early detection of psychosis in CAD needs further study. Overall, the need for more in-depth studies into developmental peculiarities in the early detection and treatment of psychoses with an onset of illness in childhood and early adolescence was further highlighted.

The relationship between risk perception and ethnicity as an explanation for late stage skin cancer diagnosis in Black and Hispanic populations: An analysis using data from the 2005 Health Information and National Trends Survey

Objective. The purpose of this study was to determine the relationship between ethnicity and skin cancer risk perception while controlling for other risk factors: education, gender, age, access to healthcare, family history of skin cancer, fear, and worry. ^ Methods. This study utilized the Health Information National Trends Survey (HINTS) dataset, a nationally representative sample of 5,586 individuals 18 years of age or older. One third of the respondents were chosen at random and asked questions involving skin cancer. Analysis was based on questions that identified skin cancer risk perception, fear of finding skin cancer, and frequency of worry about skin cancer and a variety of sociodemographic factors. ^ Results. Ethnicity had a significant impact on risk perception scores while controlling for other risk factors. Other risk factors that also had a significant impact on risk perception scores included family history of skin cancer, age, and worry. ^

Separating ITCZ- and ENSO-related rainfall changes in the Galápagos over the last 3 kyr using D/H ratios of multiple lipid biomarkers

We present a 3000-yr rainfall reconstruction from the Galápagos Islands that is based on paired biomarker records from the sediment of El Junco Lake. Located in the eastern equatorial Pacific, the climate of the Galápagos Islands is governed by movements of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We use a novel method for reconstructing past ENSO- and ITCZ-related rainfall changes through analysis of molecular and isotopic biomarker records representing several types of plants and algae that grow under differing climatic conditions. We propose that ?D values of dinosterol, a sterol produced by dinoflagellates, record changes in mean rainfall in El Junco Lake, while dD values of C34 botryococcene, a hydrocarbon unique to the green alga Botryococcus braunii, record changes in rainfall associated with moderate-to-strong El Niño events. We use these proxies to infer changes in mean rainfall and El Niño-related rainfall over the past 3000 yr. During periods in which the inferred change in El Niño-related rainfall opposed the change in mean rainfall, we infer changes in the amount of ITCZ-related rainfall. Simulations with an idealized isotope hydrology model of El Junco Lake help illustrate the interpretation of these proxy reconstructions. Opposing changes in El Niño- and ITCZ-related rainfall appear to account for several of the largest inferred hydrologic changes in El Junco Lake. We propose that these reconstructions can be used to infer changes in frequency and/or intensity of El Niño events and changes in the position of the ITCZ in the eastern equatorial Pacific over the past 3000 yr. Comparison with El Junco Lake sediment grain size records indicates general agreement of inferred rainfall changes over the late Holocene.

A Methodological model to assist the optimization and risk management of mining investment decisions

Identifying, quantifying, and minimizing technical risks associated with investment decisions is a key challenge for mineral industry decision makers and investors. However, risk analysis in most bankable mine feasibility studies are based on the stochastic modelling of project “Net Present Value” (NPV)which, in most cases, fails to provide decision makers with a truly comprehensive analysis of risks associated with technical and management uncertainty and, as a result, are of little use for risk management and project optimization. This paper presents a value-chain risk management approach where project risk is evaluated for each step of the project lifecycle, from exploration to mine closure, and risk management is performed as a part of a stepwise value-added optimization process.