Comparison of Multivariate and Univariate Models for Genetic Evaluation of Milk Yield based on Test Day Data

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62H12, 62P99

On the Lp-Norm Regression Models for Estimating Value-at-Risk

Analysis of risk measures associated with price series data movements and its predictions are of strategic importance in the financial markets as well as to policy makers in particular for short- and longterm planning for setting up economic growth targets. For example, oilprice risk-management focuses primarily on when and how an organization can best prevent the costly exposure to price risk. Value-at-Risk (VaR) is the commonly practised instrument to measure risk and is evaluated by analysing the negative/positive tail of the probability distributions of the returns (profit or loss). In modelling applications, least-squares estimation (LSE)-based linear regression models are often employed for modeling and analyzing correlated data. These linear models are optimal and perform relatively well under conditions such as errors following normal or approximately normal distributions, being free of large size outliers and satisfying the Gauss-Markov assumptions. However, often in practical situations, the LSE-based linear regression models fail to provide optimal results, for instance, in non-Gaussian situations especially when the errors follow distributions with fat tails and error terms possess a finite variance. This is the situation in case of risk analysis which involves analyzing tail distributions. Thus, applications of the LSE-based regression models may be questioned for appropriateness and may have limited applicability. We have carried out the risk analysis of Iranian crude oil price data based on the Lp-norm regression models and have noted that the LSE-based models do not always perform the best. We discuss results from the L1, L2 and L∞-norm based linear regression models. ACM Computing Classification System (1998): B.1.2, F.1.3, F.2.3, G.3, J.2.

Regional differences of outpatient physician supply as a theoretical economic and empirical generalized linear model

BACKGROUND: Regional differences in physician supply can be found in many health care systems, regardless of their organizational and financial structure. A theoretical model is developed for the physicians' decision on office allocation, covering demand-side factors and a consumption time function. METHODS: To test the propositions following the theoretical model, generalized linear models were estimated to explain differences in 412 German districts. Various factors found in the literature were included to control for physicians' regional preferences. RESULTS: Evidence in favor of the first three propositions of the theoretical model could be found. Specialists show a stronger association to higher populated districts than GPs. Although indicators for regional preferences are significantly correlated with physician density, their coefficients are not as high as population density. CONCLUSIONS: If regional disparities should be addressed by political actions, the focus should be to counteract those parameters representing physicians' preferences in over- and undersupplied regions.

Occurrence and abundance models of threatened plant species: Applications to mitigate the impact of hydroelectric power dams

Species occurrence and abundance models are important tools that can be used in biodiversity conservation, and can be applied to predict or plan actions needed to mitigate the environmental impacts of hydropower dams. In this study our objectives were: (i) to model the occurrence and abundance of threatened plant species, (ii) to verify the relationship between predicted occurrence and true abundance, and (iii) to assess whether models based on abundance are more effective in predicting species occurrence than those based on presence–absence data. Individual representatives of nine species were counted within 388 randomly georeferenced plots (10 m × 50 m) around the Barra Grande hydropower dam reservoir in southern Brazil. We modelled their relationship with 15 environmental variables using both occurrence (Generalised Linear Models) and abundance data (Hurdle and Zero-Inflated models). Overall, occurrence models were more accurate than abundance models. For all species, observed abundance was significantly, although not strongly, correlated with the probability of occurrence. This correlation lost significance when zero-abundance (absence) sites were excluded from analysis, but only when this entailed a substantial drop in sample size. The same occurred when analysing relationships between abundance and probability of occurrence from previously published studies on a range of different species, suggesting that future studies could potentially use probability of occurrence as an approximate indicator of abundance when the latter is not possible to obtain. This possibility might, however, depend on life history traits of the species in question, with some traits favouring a relationship between occurrence and abundance. Reconstructing species abundance patterns from occurrence could be an important tool for conservation planning and the management of threatened species, allowing scientists to indicate the best areas for collection and reintroduction of plant germplasm or choose conservation areas most likely to maintain viable populations.

How well can models predict changes in species distributions? A 13-year-old otter model revisited

Species distribution and ecological niche models are increasingly used in biodiversity management and conservation. However, one thing that is important but rarely done is to follow up on the predictive performance of these models over time, to check if their predictions are fulfilled and maintain accuracy, or if they apply only to the set in which they were produced. In 2003, a distribution model of the Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra) in Spain was published, based on the results of a country-wide otter survey published in 1998. This model was built with logistic regression of otter presence-absence in UTM 10 km2 cells on a diverse set of environmental, human and spatial variables, selected according to statistical criteria. Here we evaluate this model against the results of the most recent otter survey, carried out a decade later and after a significant expansion of the otter distribution area in this country. Despite the time elapsed and the evident changes in this species’ distribution, the model maintained a good predictive capacity, considering both discrimination and calibration measures. Otter distribution did not expand randomly or simply towards vicinity areas,m but specifically towards the areas predicted as most favourable by the model based on data from 10 years before. This corroborates the utility of predictive distribution models, at least in the medium term and when they are made with robust methods and relevant predictor variables.

[impact Variables On The Decline In Infant Mortality In The State Of São Paulo, Brazil: 1998-2008].

This is an ecological, analytical and retrospective study comprising the 645 municipalities in the State of São Paulo, the scope of which was to determine the relationship between socioeconomic, demographic variables and the model of care in relation to infant mortality rates in the period from 1998 to 2008. The ratio of average annual change for each indicator per stratum coverage was calculated. Infant mortality was analyzed according to the model for repeated measures over time, adjusted for the following correction variables: the city's population, proportion of Family Health Programs (PSFs) deployed, proportion of Growth Acceleration Programs (PACs) deployed, per capita GDP and SPSRI (São Paulo social responsibility index). The analysis was performed by generalized linear models, considering the gamma distribution. Multiple comparisons were performed with the likelihood ratio with chi-square approximate distribution, considering a significance level of 5%. There was a decrease in infant mortality over the years (p < 0.05), with no significant difference from 2004 to 2008 (p > 0.05). The proportion of PSFs deployed (p < 0.0001) and per capita GDP (p < 0.0001) were significant in the model. The decline of infant mortality in this period was influenced by the growth of per capita GDP and PSFs.

Deregulation Of Adipokines Related To Target Organ Damage On Resistant Hypertension.

Resistant hypertension (RHTN) includes patients with controlled blood pressure (BP) (CRHTN) and uncontrolled BP (UCRHTN). In fact, RHTN patients are more likely to have target organ damage (TOD), and resistin, leptin and adiponectin may affect BP control in these subjects. We assessed the relationship between adipokines levels and arterial stiffness, left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) and microalbuminuria (MA). This cross-sectional study included CRHTN (n=51) and UCRHTN (n=38) patients for evaluating body mass index, ambulatory blood pressure monitoring, plasma adiponectin, leptin and resistin concentrations, pulse wave velocity (PWV), MA and echocardiography. Leptin and resistin levels were higher in UCRHTN, whereas adiponectin levels were lower in this same subgroup. Similarly, arterial stiffness, LVH and MA were higher in UCRHTN subgroup. Adiponectin levels negatively correlated with PWV (r=-0.42, P<0.01), and MA (r=-0.48, P<0.01) only in UCRHTN. Leptin was positively correlated with PWV (r=0.37, P=0.02) in UCRHTN subgroup, whereas resistin was not correlated with TOD in both subgroups. Adiponectin is associated with arterial stiffness and renal injury in UCRHTN patients, whereas leptin is associated with arterial stiffness in the same subgroup. Taken together, our results showed that those adipokines may contribute to vascular and renal damage in UCRHTN patients.

Estado nutricional e composição corporal de crianças do ensino fundamental do municipio de Vinhedo - SP

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Gender and schooling inequalities in risk and protective factors for chronic diseases among Brazilian adults, through telephone survey

OBJECTIVES: To assess risk and protective factors for chronic noncommunicable diseases (CNCD) and to identify social inequalities in their distribution among Brazilian adults. METHODS: The data used were collected in 2007 through VIGITEL, an ongoing population-based telephone survey. This surveillance system was implemented in all of the Brazilian State capitals, over 54,000 interviews were analyzed. Age-adjusted prevalence ratios for trends at different schooling levels were calculated using Poisson regression with linear models. RESULTS: These analyses have shown differences in the prevalence of risk and protective factors for CNCD by gender and schooling. Among men, the prevalence ratios of overweight, consumption of meat with visible fat, and dyslipidemia were higher among men with more schooling, while tobacco use, sedentary lifestyle, and high-blood pressure were lower. Among women, tobacco use, overweight, obesity, high-blood pressure and diabetes were lower among men with more schooling, and consumption of meat with visible fat and sedentary lifestyles were higher. As for protective factors, fruit and vegetables intake and physical activity were higher in both men and women with more schooling. CONCLUSION: Gender and schooling influence on risk and protective factors for CNCD, being the values less favorable for men. vigitel is a useful tool for monitoring these factors amongst the Brazilian population.

Prevalence and social distribution of risk factors for chronic noncommunicable diseases in Brazil

OBJETIVOS: Evaluar los factores de riesgo de enfermedades crónicas no transmisibles (ECNT) e identificar las desigualdades sociales relacionadas con su distribución en la población adulta brasileña.MÉTODOS: Se estudiaron los factores de riesgo de ECNT (entre ellos el consumo de tabaco, el sobrepeso y la obesidad, el bajo consumo de frutas y vegetales [BCFV], la insuficiente actividad física en el tiempo de ocio [IAFTO], el estilo de vida sedentario y el consumo excesivo de alcohol) en una muestra probabilística de 54369 adultos de 26 capitales estatales de Brasil y el Distrito Federal en 2006. Se utilizó el Sistema de Vigilancia de los Factores Protectores y de Riesgo para Enfermedades Crónicas No Transmisibles por Entrevistas Telefónicas (VIGITEL), un sistema de encuestas telefónicas asistido por computadora, y se calcularon las prevalencias ajustadas por la edad para las tendencias en cuanto al nivel educacional mediante la regresión de Poisson con modelos lineales. RESULTADOS: Los hombres informaron mayor consumo de tabaco, sobrepeso, BCFV, estilo de vida sedentario y consumo excesivo de alcohol que las mujeres, pero menos IAFTO. En los hombres, la educación se asoció con un mayor sobrepeso y un estilo de vida sedentario, pero con un menor consumo de tabaco, BCFV e IAFTO. En las mujeres, la educación se asoció con un menor consumo de tabaco, sobrepeso, obesidad, BCFV e IAFTO, pero aumentó el estilo de vida sedentario CONCLUSIONES: En Brasil, la prevalencia de factores de riesgo para ECNT (excepto IAFTO) es mayor en los hombres que en las mujeres. En ambos sexos, el nivel de educación influye en la prevalencia de los factores de riesgo para ECNT

Assessing influence in survival data with a cure fraction and covariates

Diagnostic methods have been an important tool in regression analysis to detect anomalies, such as departures from error assumptions and the presence of outliers and influential observations with the fitted models. Assuming censored data, we considered a classical analysis and Bayesian analysis assuming no informative priors for the parameters of the model with a cure fraction. A Bayesian approach was considered by using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods with Metropolis-Hasting algorithms steps to obtain the posterior summaries of interest. Some influence methods, such as the local influence, total local influence of an individual, local influence on predictions and generalized leverage were derived, analyzed and discussed in survival data with a cure fraction and covariates. The relevance of the approach was illustrated with a real data set, where it is shown that, by removing the most influential observations, the decision about which model best fits the data is changed.

Inequalities in mortality of men by oral and pharyngeal cancer in Barcelona, Spain and Sao Paulo, Brazil, 1995-2003

Background: Large inequalities of mortality by most cancers in general, by mouth and pharynx cancer in particular, have been associated to behaviour and geopolitical factors. The assessment of socioeconomic covariates of cancer mortality may be relevant to a full comprehension of distal determinants of the disease, and to appraise opportune interventions. The objective of this study was to compare socioeconomic inequalities in male mortality by oral and pharyngeal cancer in two major cities of Europe and South America. Methods: The official system of information on mortality provided data on deaths in each city; general censuses informed population data. Age-adjusted death rates by oral and pharyngeal cancer for men were independently assessed for neighbourhoods of Barcelona, Spain, and Sao Paulo, Brazil, from 1995 to 2003. Uniform methodological criteria instructed the comparative assessment of magnitude, trends and spatial distribution of mortality. General linear models assessed ecologic correlations between death rates and socioeconomic indices (unemployment, schooling levels and the human development index) at the inner-city area level. Results obtained for each city were subsequently compared. Results: Mortality of men by oral and pharyngeal cancer ranked higher in Barcelona (9.45 yearly deaths per 100,000 male inhabitants) than in Spain and Europe as a whole; rates were on decrease. Sao Paulo presented a poorer profile, with higher magnitude (11.86) and stationary trend. The appraisal of ecologic correlations indicated an unequal and inequitably distributed burden of disease in both cities, with poorer areas tending to present higher mortality. Barcelona had a larger gradient of mortality than Sao Paulo, indicating a higher inequality of cancer deaths across its neighbourhoods. Conclusion: The quantitative monitoring of inequalities in health may contribute to the formulation of redistributive policies aimed at the concurrent promotion of wellbeing and social justice. The assessment of groups experiencing a higher burden of disease can instruct health services to provide additional resources for expanding preventive actions and facilities aimed at early diagnosis, standardized treatments and rehabilitation.

Performance of different immobilized lipases in palm oil biodiesel synthesis

Performance of different immobilized lipases in palm oil biodiesel synthesis. Optimized conditions for palm oil and ethanol enzymatic biodiesel synthesis were determined with different immobilized lipases SiO(2)-PVA-immobilized lipase from Pseudomonas fluorescens and acrylic resin-immobilized lipase, Novozym (R) 435, from Candida antartica, in solvent-free medium. A full factorial design assessed the influence of temperature (42 - 58 degrees C) and ethanol: palm oil (6:1 - 18:1) molar ratio on the transesterification yield. Main effects were adjusted by multiple regression analysis to linear models and the maximum transesterification yield was obtained at 42 degrees C and 18:1 ethanol: palm oil molar ratio. Mathematical models featuring total yield for each immobilized lipase were suitable to describe the experimental results.

The influence of environmental variables on capybara (Hydrochoerus hydrochaeris: Rodentia, Hydrochoeridae) detectability in anthropogenic environments of southeastern Brazil

Capybaras were monitored weekly from 1998 to 2006 by counting individuals in three anthropogenic environments (mixed agricultural fields, forest and open areas) of southeastern Brazil in order to examine the possible influence of environmental variables (temperature, humidity, wind speed, precipitation and global radiation) on the detectability of this species. There was consistent seasonality in the number of capybaras in the study area, with a specific seasonal pattern in each area. Log-linear models were fitted to the sample counts of adult capybaras separately for each sampled area, with an allowance for monthly effects, time trends and the effects of environmental variables. Log-linear models containing effects for the months of the year and a quartic time trend were highly significant. The effects of environmental variables on sample counts were different in each type of environment. As environmental variables affect capybara detectability, they should be considered in future species survey/monitoring programs.

Population subdivision in marine environments: the contributions of biogeography, geographic distance, and discontinuous habitat to genetic differentiation in a blennioid

The relative importance of factors that may promote genetic differentiation in marine organisms is largely unknown. Here, contributions to population structure from biogeography, habitat distribution, and isolation by distance were investigated in Axoclinus nigricaudus, a small subtidal rock reef fish, throughout its range in the Gulf of California. A 408 basepair fragment of the mitochondrial control region was sequenced from 105 individuals. Variation was significantly partitioned between many pairs of populations. Phylogenetic analyses, hierarchical analyses of variance, and general linear models substantiated a major break between two putative biogeographic regions. This genetic discontinuity coincides with an abrupt change in ecological characteristics (including temperature and salinity) but does not coincide with known oceanographic circulation patterns. Geographic distance and the nature of habitat separating populations (continuous habitat along a shoreline, discontinuous habitat along a shoreline, and open water) also contributed to population structure in general linear model analyses. To verify that local populations are genetically stable over time, one population was resampled on four occasions over eighteen months; it showed no evidence of a temporal component to diversity. These results indicate that having a planktonic life stage does not preclude geographically partitioned genetic variation over relatively small geographic distances in marine environments. Moreover, levels of genetic differentiation among populations of Axoclinus nigricaudus cannot be explained by a single factor, but are due to the combined influences of a biogeographic boundary, habitat, and geographic distance.