Environmental Decision Support: a Multi-Agent Approach

The environmental management domain is vast and encompasses many identifiable activities: impact assessment, planning, project evaluation, etc. In particular, this paper focusses on the modelling of the project evaluation activity. The environmental decision support system under development aims to provide assistance to project developers in the selection of adequate locations, guaranteeing the compliance with the applicable regulations and the existing development plans as well as satisfying the specified project requirements. The inherent multidisciplinarity features of this activity lead to the adoption of the Multi-Agent paradigm, and, in particular, to the modelling of the involved agencies as a community of cooperative autonomous agents, where each agency contributes with its share of problem solving to the final system’s recommendation. To achieve this behaviour the many conclusions of the individual agencies have to be justifiably accommodated: not only they may differ, but can be interdependent, complementary, irreconcilable, or simply, independent. We propose different solutions (involving both local and global consistency) to support the adequate merge of the distinct perspectives that inevitably arise during this type of decision making.

Consistency and Context Management in a Multi Agent Belief Revision Testbed

Multi-agent architectures are well suited for complex inherently distributed problem solving domains. From the many challenging aspects that arise within this framework, a crucial one emerges: how to incorporate dynamic and conflicting agent beliefs? While the belief revision activity in a single agent scenario is concentrated on incorporating new information while preserving consistency, in a multi-agent system it also has to deal with possible conflicts between the agents perspectives. To provide an adequate framework, each agent, built as a combination of an assumption based belief revision system and a cooperation layer, was enriched with additional features: a distributed search control mechanism allowing dynamic context management, and a set of different distributed consistency methodologies. As a result, a Distributed Belief Revision Testbed (DiBeRT) was developed. This paper is a preliminary report presenting some of DiBeRT contributions: a concise representation of external beliefs; a simple and innovative methodology to achieve distributed context management; and a reduced inter-agent data exchange format.

Adaptive learning in agents behaviour: A framework for electricity markets simulation

Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, playing in a dynamic scene to obtain the best advantages and profits. MASCEM (Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets) is a multi-agent electricity market simulator that models market players and simulates their operation in the market. Market players are entities with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting with other players. This paper presents a methodology to provide decision support to electricity market negotiating players. This model allows integrating different strategic approaches for electricity market negotiations, and choosing the most appropriate one at each time, for each different negotiation context. This methodology is integrated in ALBidS (Adaptive Learning strategic Bidding System) – a multiagent system that provides decision support to MASCEM's negotiating agents so that they can properly achieve their goals. ALBidS uses artificial intelligence methodologies and data analysis algorithms to provide effective adaptive learning capabilities to such negotiating entities. The main contribution is provided by a methodology that combines several distinct strategies to build actions proposals, so that the best can be chosen at each time, depending on the context and simulation circumstances. The choosing process includes reinforcement learning algorithms, a mechanism for negotiating contexts analysis, a mechanism for the management of the efficiency/effectiveness balance of the system, and a mechanism for competitor players' profiles definition.

Scenarios Generation for Multi-Agent simulation of Electricity Markets based on Intelligent Data Analysis

This document presents a tool able to automatically gather data provided by real energy markets and to generate scenarios, capture and improve market players’ profiles and strategies by using knowledge discovery processes in databases supported by artificial intelligence techniques, data mining algorithms and machine learning methods. It provides the means for generating scenarios with different dimensions and characteristics, ensuring the representation of real and adapted markets, and their participating entities. The scenarios generator module enhances the MASCEM (Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets) simulator, endowing a more effective tool for decision support. The achievements from the implementation of the proposed module enables researchers and electricity markets’ participating entities to analyze data, create real scenarios and make experiments with them. On the other hand, applying knowledge discovery techniques to real data also allows the improvement of MASCEM agents’ profiles and strategies resulting in a better representation of real market players’ behavior. This work aims to improve the comprehension of electricity markets and the interactions among the involved entities through adequate multi-agent simulation.

Automatic Electricity Markets Data Extraction for Realistic Multi-agent Simulations

Electricity markets worldwide suffered profound transformations. The privatization of previously nationally owned systems; the deregulation of privately owned systems that were regulated; and the strong interconnection of national systems, are some examples of such transformations [1, 2]. In general, competitive environments, as is the case of electricity markets, require good decision-support tools to assist players in their decisions. Relevant research is being undertaken in this field, namely concerning player modeling and simulation, strategic bidding and decision-support.

Load Control Timescales Simulation in a Multi-Agent Smart Grid Platform

Environmental concerns and the shortage in the fossil fuel reserves have been potentiating the growth and globalization of distributed generation. Another resource that has been increasing its importance is the demand response, which is used to change consumers’ consumption profile, helping to reduce peak demand. Aiming to support small players’ participation in demand response events, the Curtailment Service Provider emerged. This player works as an aggregator for demand response events. The control of small and medium players which act in smart grid and micro grid environments is enhanced with a multi-agent system with artificial intelligence techniques – the MASGriP (Multi-Agent Smart Grid Platform). Using strategic behaviours in each player, this system simulates the profile of real players by using software agents. This paper shows the importance of modeling these behaviours for studying this type of scenarios. A case study with three examples shows the differences between each player and the best behaviour in order to achieve the higher profit in each situation.

Data Mining Approach to support the Generation of Realistic Scenarios for Multi-Agent simulation of Electricity Markets

This paper presents the Realistic Scenarios Generator (RealScen), a tool that processes data from real electricity markets to generate realistic scenarios that enable the modeling of electricity market players’ characteristics and strategic behavior. The proposed tool provides significant advantages to the decision making process in an electricity market environment, especially when coupled with a multi-agent electricity markets simulator. The generation of realistic scenarios is performed using mechanisms for intelligent data analysis, which are based on artificial intelligence and data mining algorithms. These techniques allow the study of realistic scenarios, adapted to the existing markets, and improve the representation of market entities as software agents, enabling a detailed modeling of their profiles and strategies. This work contributes significantly to the understanding of the interactions between the entities acting in electricity markets by increasing the capability and realism of market simulations.

Distributed Intelligent Management of Microgrids using a Multi-Agent Simulation Platform

Multi-agent approaches have been widely used to model complex systems of distributed nature with a large amount of interactions between the involved entities. Power systems are a reference case, mainly due to the increasing use of distributed energy sources, largely based on renewable sources, which have potentiated huge changes in the power systems’ sector. Dealing with such a large scale integration of intermittent generation sources led to the emergence of several new players, as well as the development of new paradigms, such as the microgrid concept, and the evolution of demand response programs, which potentiate the active participation of consumers. This paper presents a multi-agent based simulation platform which models a microgrid environment, considering several different types of simulated players. These players interact with real physical installations, creating a realistic simulation environment with results that can be observed directly in the reality. A case study is presented considering players’ responses to a demand response event, resulting in an intelligent increase of consumption in order to face the wind generation surplus.

Embedded Multi-Core systems for Mixed Criticality applications in dynamic and changeable real-time environments

EMC2 finds solutions for dynamic adaptability in open systems. It provides handling of mixed criticality multicore applications in r eal-time conditions, withscalability and utmost flexibility, full-scale deployment and management of integrated tool chains, through the entire lifecycle.

Study of multi-component systems in polybenzimidazole membrane formation and their impact on membrane performance

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Química e Bioquímica

On the origins of electoral systems and political parties. The role of elections in multi-member districts

The old, understudied electoral system composed of multi-member districts, open ballot and plurality rule is presented as the most remote scene of the origin of both political parties and new electoral systems. A survey of the uses of this set of electoral rules in different parts of the world during remote and recent periods shows its wide spread. A model of voting by this electoral system demonstrates that, while it can produce varied and pluralistic representation, it also provides incentives to form factional or partisan candidacies. Famous negative reactions to the emergence of factions and political parties during the 18th and 19th centuries are reinterpreted in this context. Many electoral rules and procedures invented since the second half of the 19th century, including the Australian ballot, single-member districts, limited and cumulative ballots, and proportional representation rules, derived from the search to reduce the effects of the originating multi-member district system in favor of a single party sweep. The general relations between political parties and electoral systems are restated to account for the foundational stage here discussed.

Multi-scale systems analysis of plant development : beyond cellular signaling and tissue morphodynamics

Les plantes sont essentielles pour les sociétés humaines. Notre alimentation quotidienne, les matériaux de constructions et les sources énergétiques dérivent de la biomasse végétale. En revanche, la compréhension des multiples aspects développementaux des plantes est encore peu exploitée et représente un sujet de recherche majeur pour la science. L'émergence des technologies à haut débit pour le séquençage de génome à grande échelle ou l'imagerie de haute résolution permet à présent de produire des quantités énormes d'information. L'analyse informatique est une façon d'intégrer ces données et de réduire la complexité apparente vers une échelle d'abstraction appropriée, dont la finalité est de fournir des perspectives de recherches ciblées. Ceci représente la raison première de cette thèse. En d'autres termes, nous appliquons des méthodes descriptives et prédictives combinées à des simulations numériques afin d'apporter des solutions originales à des problèmes relatifs à la morphogénèse à l'échelle de la cellule et de l'organe. Nous nous sommes fixés parmi les objectifs principaux de cette thèse d'élucider de quelle manière l'interaction croisée des phytohormones auxine et brassinosteroïdes (BRs) détermine la croissance de la cellule dans la racine du méristème apical d'Arabidopsis thaliana, l'organisme modèle de référence pour les études moléculaires en plantes. Pour reconstruire le réseau de signalement cellulaire, nous avons extrait de la littérature les informations pertinentes concernant les relations entre les protéines impliquées dans la transduction des signaux hormonaux. Le réseau a ensuite été modélisé en utilisant un formalisme logique et qualitatif pour pallier l'absence de données quantitatives. Tout d'abord, Les résultats ont permis de confirmer que l'auxine et les BRs agissent en synergie pour contrôler la croissance de la cellule, puis, d'expliquer des observations phénotypiques paradoxales et au final, de mettre à jour une interaction clef entre deux protéines dans la maintenance du méristème de la racine. Une étude ultérieure chez la plante modèle Brachypodium dystachion (Brachypo- dium) a révélé l'ajustement du réseau d'interaction croisée entre auxine et éthylène par rapport à Arabidopsis. Chez ce dernier, interférer avec la biosynthèse de l'auxine mène à la formation d'une racine courte. Néanmoins, nous avons isolé chez Brachypodium un mutant hypomorphique dans la biosynthèse de l'auxine qui affiche une racine plus longue. Nous avons alors conduit une analyse morphométrique qui a confirmé que des cellules plus anisotropique (plus fines et longues) sont à l'origine de ce phénotype racinaire. Des analyses plus approfondies ont démontré que la différence phénotypique entre Brachypodium et Arabidopsis s'explique par une inversion de la fonction régulatrice dans la relation entre le réseau de signalisation par l'éthylène et la biosynthèse de l'auxine. L'analyse morphométrique utilisée dans l'étude précédente exploite le pipeline de traitement d'image de notre méthode d'histologie quantitative. Pendant la croissance secondaire, la symétrie bilatérale de l'hypocotyle est remplacée par une symétrie radiale et une organisation concentrique des tissus constitutifs. Ces tissus sont initialement composés d'une douzaine de cellules mais peuvent aisément atteindre des dizaines de milliers dans les derniers stades du développement. Cette échelle dépasse largement le seuil d'investigation par les moyens dits 'traditionnels' comme l'imagerie directe de tissus en profondeur. L'étude de ce système pendant cette phase de développement ne peut se faire qu'en réalisant des coupes fines de l'organe, ce qui empêche une compréhension des phénomènes cellulaires dynamiques sous-jacents. Nous y avons remédié en proposant une stratégie originale nommée, histologie quantitative. De fait, nous avons extrait l'information contenue dans des images de très haute résolution de sections transverses d'hypocotyles en utilisant un pipeline d'analyse et de segmentation d'image à grande échelle. Nous l'avons ensuite combiné avec un algorithme de reconnaissance automatique des cellules. Cet outil nous a permis de réaliser une description quantitative de la progression de la croissance secondaire révélant des schémas développementales non-apparents avec une inspection visuelle classique. La formation de pôle de phloèmes en structure répétée et espacée entre eux d'une longueur constante illustre les bénéfices de notre approche. Par ailleurs, l'exploitation approfondie de ces résultats a montré un changement de croissance anisotropique des cellules du cambium et du phloème qui semble en phase avec l'expansion du xylème. Combinant des outils génétiques et de la modélisation biomécanique, nous avons démontré que seule la croissance plus rapide des tissus internes peut produire une réorientation de l'axe de croissance anisotropique des tissus périphériques. Cette prédiction a été confirmée par le calcul du ratio des taux de croissance du xylème et du phloème au cours de développement secondaire ; des ratios élevés sont effectivement observés et concomitant à l'établissement progressif et tangentiel du cambium. Ces résultats suggèrent un mécanisme d'auto-organisation établi par un gradient de division méristématique qui génèrent une distribution de contraintes mécaniques. Ceci réoriente la croissance anisotropique des tissus périphériques pour supporter la croissance secondaire. - Plants are essential for human society, because our daily food, construction materials and sustainable energy are derived from plant biomass. Yet, despite this importance, the multiple developmental aspects of plants are still poorly understood and represent a major challenge for science. With the emergence of high throughput devices for genome sequencing and high-resolution imaging, data has never been so easy to collect, generating huge amounts of information. Computational analysis is one way to integrate those data and to decrease the apparent complexity towards an appropriate scale of abstraction with the aim to eventually provide new answers and direct further research perspectives. This is the motivation behind this thesis work, i.e. the application of descriptive and predictive analytics combined with computational modeling to answer problems that revolve around morphogenesis at the subcellular and organ scale. One of the goals of this thesis is to elucidate how the auxin-brassinosteroid phytohormone interaction determines the cell growth in the root apical meristem of Arabidopsis thaliana (Arabidopsis), the plant model of reference for molecular studies. The pertinent information about signaling protein relationships was obtained through the literature to reconstruct the entire hormonal crosstalk. Due to a lack of quantitative information, we employed a qualitative modeling formalism. This work permitted to confirm the synergistic effect of the hormonal crosstalk on cell elongation, to explain some of our paradoxical mutant phenotypes and to predict a novel interaction between the BREVIS RADIX (BRX) protein and the transcription factor MONOPTEROS (MP),which turned out to be critical for the maintenance of the root meristem. On the same subcellular scale, another study in the monocot model Brachypodium dystachion (Brachypodium) revealed an alternative wiring of auxin-ethylene crosstalk as compared to Arabidopsis. In the latter, increasing interference with auxin biosynthesis results in progressively shorter roots. By contrast, a hypomorphic Brachypodium mutant isolated in this study in an enzyme of the auxin biosynthesis pathway displayed a dramatically longer seminal root. Our morphometric analysis confirmed that more anisotropic cells (thinner and longer) are principally responsible for the mutant root phenotype. Further characterization pointed towards an inverted regulatory logic in the relation between ethylene signaling and auxin biosynthesis in Brachypodium as compared to Arabidopsis, which explains the phenotypic discrepancy. Finally, the morphometric analysis of hypocotyl secondary growth that we applied in this study was performed with the image-processing pipeline of our quantitative histology method. During its secondary growth, the hypocotyl reorganizes its primary bilateral symmetry to a radial symmetry of highly specialized tissues comprising several thousand cells, starting with a few dozens. However, such a scale only permits observations in thin cross-sections, severely hampering a comprehensive analysis of the morphodynamics involved. Our quantitative histology strategy overcomes this limitation. We acquired hypocotyl cross-sections from tiled high-resolution images and extracted their information content using custom high-throughput image processing and segmentation. Coupled with an automated cell type recognition algorithm, it allows precise quantitative characterization of vascular development and reveals developmental patterns that were not evident from visual inspection, for example the steady interspace distance of the phloem poles. Further analyses indicated a change in growth anisotropy of cambial and phloem cells, which appeared in phase with the expansion of xylem. Combining genetic tools and computational modeling, we showed that the reorientation of growth anisotropy axis of peripheral tissue layers only occurs when the growth rate of central tissue is higher than the peripheral one. This was confirmed by the calculation of the ratio of the growth rate xylem to phloem throughout secondary growth. High ratios are indeed observed and concomitant with the homogenization of cambium anisotropy. These results suggest a self-organization mechanism, promoted by a gradient of division in the cambium that generates a pattern of mechanical constraints. This, in turn, reorients the growth anisotropy of peripheral tissues to sustain the secondary growth.

Towards the Construction of a Multi-agent Approach for Discovering the Meaning of Natural Language Collaborative Conversations

Peer-reviewed

Fraud detection in the banking sector : a multi-agent approach

Fraud is an increasing phenomenon as shown in many surveys carried out by leading international consulting companies in the last years. Despite the evolution of electronic payments and hacking techniques there is still a strong human component in fraud schemes. Conflict of interest in particular is the main contributing factor to the success of internal fraud. In such cases anomaly detection tools are not always the best instruments, since the fraud schemes are based on faking documents in a context dominated by lack of controls, and the perpetrators are those ones who should control possible irregularities. In the banking sector audit team experts can count only on their experience, whistle blowing and the reports sent by their inspectors. The Fraud Interactive Decision Expert System (FIDES), which is the core of this research, is a multi-agent system built to support auditors in evaluating suspicious behaviours and to speed up the evaluation process in order to detect or prevent fraud schemes. The system combines Think-map, Delphi method and Attack trees and it has been built around audit team experts and their needs. The output of FIDES is an attack tree, a tree-based diagram to ”systematically categorize the different ways in which a system can be attacked”. Once the attack tree is built, auditors can choose the path they perceive as more suitable and decide whether or not to start the investigation. The system is meant for use in the future to retrieve old cases in order to match them with new ones and find similarities. The retrieving features of the system will be useful to simplify the risk management phase, since similar countermeasures adopted for past cases might be useful for present ones. Even though FIDES has been built with the banking sector in mind, it can be applied in all those organisations, like insurance companies or public organizations, where anti-fraud activity is based on a central anti-fraud unit and a reporting system.