Essays in heterogeneous agent macroeconomics

This thesis is comprised of three chapters. The first article studies the determinants of the labor force participation of elderly American males and investigates the factors that may account for the changes in retirement between 1950 and 2000. We develop a life-cycle general equilibrium model with endogenous retirement that embeds Social Security legislation and Medicare. Individuals are ex ante heterogeneous with respect to their preferences for leisure and face uncertainty about labor productivity, health status and out-of-pocket medical expenses. The model is calibrated to the U.S. economy in 2000 and is able to reproduce very closely the retirement behavior of the American population. It reproduces the peaks in the distribution of Social Security applications at ages 62 and 65 and the observed facts that low earners and unhealthy individuals retire earlier. It also matches very closely the increase in retirement from 1950 to 2000. Changes in Social Security policy - which became much more generous - and the introduction of Medicare account for most of the expansion of retirement. In contrast, the isolated impact of the increase in longevity was a delaying of retirement. In the second article, I develop an overlapping generations model of criminal behavior, which extends prior research on crime by taking into account individuals' labor supply decisions and the stigma effect that affects convicted offenders, lowering their likelihood of employment. I use the model to guide a quantitative assessment of the determinants of crime and of a counterfactual experiment in which an income redistribution policy is thought as an alternative to greater law enforcement. The model economy considered in this paper is populated by heterogeneous agents who live for a realistic number of periods, have preferences over consumption and leisure, and differ in terms of their age, their skills as well as their employment shocks. In addition, savings may be precautionary and allow partial insurance against the labor income shocks. Because of the lack of full insurance, this model generates an endogenous distribution of wealth across consumers, enabling us to assess the welfare implications of the redistribution policy experiment. I calibrated the model using the US data for 1980 and then use the model to investigate the changes in criminality between 1980 and 1996. The main results that come out of this study are: 1) Law enforcement policy was the most important factor behind the fall in criminality in the period, while the increase in inequality was the most important single factor promoting crime; 2) Stigmatization is not a free-cost crime control policy; 3) Income redistribution can be a powerful alternative policy to fight crime. Finally, the third article studies the impact of HIV/AIDS on per capita income and education. It explores two channels from HIV/AIDS to income that have not been sufficiently stressed by the literature: the reduction of the incentives to study due to shorter expected longevity and the reduction of productivity of experienced workers. In the model individuals live for three periods, may get infected in the second period and with some probability die of Aids before reaching the third period of their life. Parents care for the welfare of the future generations so that they will maximize lifetime utility of their dynasty. The simulations predict that the most affected countries in Sub-Saharan Africa will be in the future, on average, thirty percent poorer than they would be without AIDS. Schooling will decline in some cases by forty percent. These figures are dramatically reduced with widespread medical treatment, as it increases the survival probability and productivity of infected individuals.

Globalization and the Industrial Revolution (revised)

This paper argues that trade specialization played an indispensable role in supporting the Industrial Revolution. We calibrate a two-good and two-sector overlapping generations model to Englandís historical development and investigate how much different Englandís development path would have been if it had not globalized in 1840. The open-economy model is able to closely match the data, but the closed-economy model cannot explain the fall in the value of land relative to wages observed in the 19th century. Without globalization, the transition period in the British economy would be considerably longer than that observed in the data and key variables, such as the share of labor force in agriculture, would have converged to Ögures very distant from the actual ones.

Growth,distribution and school policy

This paper investigates the relationship between growth, income inequality, and educational policies. An endogenous growth model is built in which there are two types of labor, skilled and unskilled, and the quality of the labor force (measured by the fraction of skilled workers) will ultimately determine the economic growth rate. We show that multi pIe inequality and growth paths may arise. Countries will not necessarily converge to the same economic growth and income distribution. When the proportion of skilled workers is low, the economy grows slow, and the Gini coeflicient is high. Low expected growth rate inhibits investments in human capital and the quality of the labor force tomorrow turns out to be low again, keeping the economy in the bad equilibrium. We then analyze the effects on growth and inequality of two types of government intervention: introduction of public schools and vouchers. Both types can induce the economic agents to invest more in education. The consequence will be an increase in the quality of the labor force, leading to higher growth rates and less inequality. Finally, we examine the welfare consequences of these interventions and conclude that they may be Pareto improving.

Work, study, both or neither? time allocation of Brazilian teenagers

Labor force participation among youth is extremely high in Brazil when compared to countries with a similar economic background. In Argentina and Chile labor force participation, among those with 10 to 14 years old, is around 1% while in Brazil this rate is as high as 17 %. For the those between 15 and 19 years old these figures are around 10% in Chile, 15% in Argentina and 53% in Brazil. On the other hand the data on school attendance give a more optimistic picture. The percentage of children, between 10 and 14 years old, enrolled in school increased steadily from 79% to 95% from 1981 to 1998 and with age between 15 and 19, from 46% to 66% in the same period. These figures are close to the ones presented by Chile and Argentina. around 99% among the youngest group and around 70% for the 15 to 19 years old group. The objective of the paper is to understand the determinants of the time allocation decision of the Brazilian youth during the last twenty years. Using a multinomial logit regression we investigate the conditional effect of various micro and macro variables on the time allocation decision for the 1991 to 1998 period. Our main findings are: working and studying became the most likely allocation among the youngest in the poor rural areas and, in general, to study, whether working or not, became less dependent on family background for the youngest group but not for the older.

O que explica a reduzida taxa de desemprego no Brasil no início do século XXI

A taxa de desemprego no Brasil sofreu redução significativa do começo do século XXI até o fim do ano de 2014. No entanto, esta redução significativa não foi acompanhada do esperado crescimento econômico disposto na teoria. Desta forma, constata-se que embora a taxa de desemprego tenha se reduzido, não necessariamente as pessoas estavam trabalhando e produzindo. Procurará se entender os fatores que influenciaram esta trajetória de redução da taxa de desemprego por meio de influência na PEA e no número de admissões de empregados, que aproximaremos à oferta e à demanda por mão de obra. Ou seja, pretende-se verificar as variáveis que influenciaram uma possível redução da oferta de trabalho, assim como uma maior demanda por trabalho, resultantes em uma redução da taxa de desemprego. Serão consideradas variáveis de renda, de transferência de renda, de educação e de crescimento econômico na análise das influências da baixa taxa de desemprego. Com base em um modelo vetor de correção de erros (VEC) pretende-se identificar quais variáveis efetivamente afetaram o panorama do desemprego.

The BRICS: some historical experiences, growth challenges and opportunities

The acronym BRICS was a fad among the media and global investors. Now, the acronym sounds passé. However, the group of countries remains important, from both political and economic reasons. They have a large aggregate size, 28% of the global GDP and 42% of the world’s population, high growth potential due to the current significant misallocation of resources and relatively low stock of human capital, structural transformation is in progress and one of them, China, is taking steps to become a global power and a challenger to the US dominance. This paper provides a brief overview of the five economies, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. We focus on some aspects of their history, the Chinese initiatives in international finance and geopolitical strategic moves, their growth experience and structural transformation over the last 35 years, trade and investment integration into the global economy and among themselves, the growth challenges faced by their economies and the potential gains to the Brazilian economy from a stronger integration with the other BRICS. In association with its efforts to be a global power, China aims to become a major player in global finance and to achieve the status of global currency for the renminbi, which would be the first currency of an emerging economy to attain such position. Despite the similarities, the BRICS encompass very diverse economies. In the recent decades, China and India showed stellar growth rates. On the other hand, Brazil, Russia and South Africa have expanded just in line with global output growth with the Russian economy exhibiting high volatility. China is by far the largest economy, and South Africa the smallest, the only BRICS economy with a GDP lower than US$ 1 trillion. Russia abandoned communism almost 25 years ago, but reversed many of the privatizations of 90’s. China is still ruled by communism, but has a vibrant private sector and recently has officially declared market forces to play a dominant role in its economy. Brazil, Russia and South Africa are global natural resources powerhouses and commodity exporters while China and India are large commodity importers. Brazil is relatively closed to international trade of goods and services, in marked contrast to the other four economies. Brazil, India and South Africa are dependent on external capital flows whereas China and Russia are capital exporters. India and South Africa have younger populations and a large portion living below the poverty line. Despite its extraordinary growth experience that lifted many millions from poverty, China still has 28% of its population classified as poor. Russia and China have much older populations and one of their challenges is to deal with the effects of a declining labor force in the near future. India, China and South Africa face a long way to urbanization, while Brazil and Russia are already urbanized countries. China is an industrial economy but its primary sector still absorbs a large pool of workers. India is not, but the primary sector employs also a large share of the labor force. China’s aggregate demand structure is biased towards investment that has been driving its expansion. Brazil and South Africa have an aggregate demand structure similar to the developed economies, with private consumption accounting for approximately 70%. The same similarity applies to the supply side, as in both economies the share of services nears 70%. The development problem is a productivity problem, so microeconomic reforms are badly needed to foster long-term growth of the BRICS economies since they have lost steam due a variety of factors, but fundamentally due to slower total factor productivity growth. China and India are implementing ambitious reform programs, while Brazil is dealing with macroeconomic disequilibria. Russia and South Africa remain mute about structural reforms. There are some potential benefits to Brazil to be extracted from a greater economic integration with the BRICS, particularly in natural resources intensive industries and services. Necessary conditions to the materialization of those gains are the removal of the several sources of resource misallocation and strong investment in human capital.

Chronic disease burden and human capital investment: evidence from the chagas disease campaign in Brazil

We investigate the effects of augmented life expectancy and health improvements on human capital investment, labor supply and fertility decisions. Our main motivation is the prediction of human capital theory that a longer and healthier life encourages educational investment and female labor force participation, while discouraging fertility. To assess the magnitude of these effects, we explore a national campaign against Chagas disease in Brazil as an exogenous source of adult mortality decline and improvement in health conditions. We show that, relative to non-endemic areas, previously endemic regions saw higher increases in educational investment, measured by literacy, school attendance and years of schooling, following the campaign. Additionally, we find that labor force participation increased in high prevalence areas relative to low prevalence ones. Furthermore, we estimate a substantially higher effect on female labor force participation relative to male, suggesting that longevity gains and health improvements affected women's incentives to work, encouraging women to join the labor force. We do not find significant effects on fertility decisions.

Nacionalização do trabalho e constituição: análise das regras de nacionalização do trabalho à luz do princípio da isonomia

There is a clear relationship between citizenship and labor market. While foreign nationals are equal in dignity and rights in the laws governing the employment of this labor force. Motivated by reasons of state security or political direction, such laws to a greater or lesser degree, create establish a system of worker protection in the face of the foreign national. These rules have a direct impact on economic regulation, as they can affect the supply of skilled labor or not, articulating with the economic order envisaged by the 1988 Constitution. The Constitution adopts several principles in its economic order, so that the issues involving the rules of the nationalization of all work must be considered in a systematic way, one can not choose a pleasure interpreter. The nationalization of the work rules are not unique to Brazil, similar rules exist in several countries of South America and Africa. In Europe they already existed, but lost out on the basis of treaties setting up the European Union, although other mechanisms are used for the purpose of protecting the citizens of the member states, making policies equal treatment legislation symbolic. The nationalization of the work rules governing the relationship between nationality and the labor market and are in a legal category, which has a function to fulfill in the Brazilian legal system. Not all rules nationalization violate the principle of equality, as it is possible, depending on the circumstance indeed adopt a criterion that implies differentiation between nationals and foreigners. The Constitution has a will arising from its normative force, so that the assumptions it (constitution) used to discriminate may also be possible by ordinary legislation, since the situation is actually justifiably constitutional

A formação da força de trabalho marítima no Brasil: cultura e cotidiano, tradição e resistência (1808-1850)

A partir du XVIe siècle, le Brésil surgit comme l'un des éléments centraux du surgissement d'un ordre économique et social dans lequel le navire apparaît comme un espace de luttes et de contradictions entre gouvernements, commandants et marins. Nous examinerons ici le processus de prolétarisation, au Brésil au cours de la premier moitié du XIXe siècle, qui a transformé en main d' uvre de travail maritime des indiens, des petits agriculteurs, des noirs libres et des esclaves.

Ofensiva do Capital e Desmobilização das Forças do Trabalho: As Estratégias Gerenciais Burguesas para a Desarticulação das Classes Trabalhadoras

The problematic that gives shape to this research is the question of the historical process of demobilization of the movement of the working classes in your accented contemporary moment. Their object of study, however, and that it particularizes, it relates to a portion this problematic; it relates to set of determinations that comprise a broader set of determinations of this historical process: it is a set of determinations forged and mediated by bourgeois strategies of management for the conformation of the circumstances necessary for the domination and for the conduct of labor force on operations in work processes for the production of surplus value. What we investigated are, because, the strategies of disarticulation that the bourgeoisie utilizes, under the mantle of subsidies conceptual and interventive of its management of work processes and the sieve of class struggles, to obstruct the union of workers; hamper the movements proletarians. Managerial strategies that intentionally or unintentionally, instill in the social relations of production means to produce and reproduce, activate and reactivate conditions of incitement of individualism and competition between the workers themselves. We shall see, thus, by analyzing means, centrally, from some of the fundamentals of disarticulation in the managerial strategies bourgeois and some of the fundamental strategies of management bourgeois hegemonized with the restructuring productive of 1970, that the disarticulation, and also the demobilization, is a concrete condition, is an objective condition, that is beyond a question that can be "solved" only by enlightenment cognitive, only by formation criticism intellectual. In everyday of the work spaces permeated by managerial strategies bourgeois there elements, then, operating as a material force putting difficulties important for the articulation of the workers, the solidarity of the proletariat; elements that constitute obstacle significant to an awareness of class and belonging; elements act in favor of the atomization of the worker - even if engenders, in the same process, as a contradiction, potentiality of resistance and fight the forces of labor

Trabalho e reestruturação produtiva no Brasil neoliberal: precarização do trabalho e redundância salarial

O objetivo do artigo é tratar das mutações sociais que ocorrem no mundo do trabalho a partir da era neoliberal no Brasil. Examina-se a precarização do trabalho como sendo elemento compositivo do novo metabolismo social que emerge com a reestruturação produtiva do capital e a constituição do Estado neoliberal. Apresenta-se como bases objetivas da precarização do trabalho, a intensificação (e ampliação) da exploração (e espoliação) da força de trabalho, o desmonte de coletivos de trabalho e de resistência sindical-corporativa; assim como a fragmentação social nas cidades em virtude do crescimento exacerbado do desemprego em massa.

Efeito do desenho em amostragem de conglomerado para estimar a distribuição de ocupações entre trabalhadores

OBJETIVO: Descrever o desenho amostral efetuado para estimar a distribuição de população economicamente ativa, apresentando o efeito do desenho encontrado. MÉTODOS: A partir de um cadastro universal, foram amostrados 4.782 domicílios residenciais do município de Botucatu, SP, por intermédio de amostra aleatória sistemática de conglomerados, realizada entre junho e julho de 1997. RESULTADOS: Os 4.782 domicílios residenciais corresponderam a 17.219 moradores de Botucatu, entre junho e julho de 1997. em decorrência da perda de heterogeneidade da distribuição das ocupações dentro dos domicílios amostrados, o efeito do desenho encontrado variou entre 1,00 e 1,96. CONCLUSÕES: Com base nos resultados obtidos, sugere-se que, em amostras de conglomerados para estimativas da distribuição de ocupações em populações economicamente ativas, o efeito do desenho seja estimado como e=1,50, para amostragens em zona urbana; e e=2,00 para amostragens em zona rural.

Planejamento paisagístico do Campus Universitário da Faculdade de Ciências Agronômicas, UNESP, Botucatu, S.P

O Planejamento Paisagístico do Campus da Faculdade de Ciências Agronômicas da Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) em Botucatu - SP, foi elaborado a partir de um Plano Diretor já existente e considerado o comportamento da paisagem, com edificações e circulações já estabelecidas, dando ênfase ao projeto de ajardinamento do entorno da Central de Salas de Aulas. Os objetivos principais do planejamento visam a proteção do solo, arborização adequada e ajardinamento do encontro dos prédios principais. O traçado proposto é simples, com a finalidade de dar uma escala humana ao Campus, considerando a necessidade dos usuários e de favorecer a utilização de máquinas para manutenção e tratos culturais, em face da pequena disponibilidade de mão-de-obra, sendo mais elaborado somente nos entornos dos prédios principais. A estrutura vegetal é formada de árvores, arbustos, gramados e outras forrações que foram selecionadas por sua rusticidade, resistência, aclimatação ao local e disponibilidade nos Viveiros Experimentais da Faculdade de Ciências Agronômicas-UNESP. Procurou-se utilizar, sempre que possível, espécies nativas

Drinking patterns between men and women in two distinct Brazilian communities

OBJETIVO: Realizou-se um inquérito para comparar diferenças de gênero nos padrões de consumo de álcool em duas amostras urbanas, estratificadas e representativas de duas comunidades (B e RJr). MÉTODO: O questionário Genacis (Gênero, Álcool e Cultura: Um Estudo Internacional Gender, Alcohol, and Culture: An Internacional Study) foi utilizado. RESULTADOS: Houve várias diferenças significativas em dados sociodemográficos e de padrões de uso de álcool entre essas duas amostras. Uma delas tinha população mais velha, educada, católica, branca e mais mulheres na força de trabalho. Dados da comunidade B mostraram que mulheres e homens tiveram padrões similares de consumo de álcool. RJr teve uso de álcool mais alto entre homens e 22% dos homens abaixo de 49 anos de idade tinham padrão de uso do tipo binge. DISCUSSÃO: O acesso, tabagismo, renda e ter um parceiro com consumo pesado de álcool foram fatores de risco importantes para o consumo das mulheres. CONCLUSÕES: Este estudo mostra que quando os papéis das mulheres se tornam similares aos dos homens, modificam seu padrão de consumo de álcool.

Trabalho destruído e funcionalização do lazer: possíveis relações em tempos de alta modernidade.

The possible relationships between leisure and labor and its association with the formation of high modernity as a historic and social phenomenon in a historic - dialectic perspective is discussed in this text. A bibliographic research on public documents such as journals, books, monographs and iconography's materials from classic and contemporary authors was carried out. It was concluded that leisure was equipped during the development of modernity and plays a revitalizing role for the labor force and construction of a discipline that is needed for a flexible and heterogeneous labor nowadays which characterize the contemporary societies.